Catalyst Biosciences, Inc. (CBIO): BCG Matrix [Dec-2025 Updated]

Catalyst's portfolio is sharply reoriented around high-growth fibrosis and thrombocytopenia plays-F351, Etorel and Contiva drive commercialization momentum and market share gains while ETUARY's strong margins bankroll aggressive R&D and regulatory pushes; meanwhile high-upside but capital-intensive bets (F351's U.S. MASH expansion and F573) need clinical wins to justify further investment, and legacy protease/complement assets have been exited as non-core dogs-a clear capital-allocation bet on concentrated clinical success that will determine whether current stars scale or the question marks demand more of the company's cash.

Catalyst Biosciences, Inc. (CBIO) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Stars

Stars - Hydronidone F351 leads liver fibrosis growth

Hydronidone F351 is positioned as a Star following a successful Phase 3 pivotal trial for Chronic Hepatitis B-associated liver fibrosis completed in 2025, which demonstrated statistically significant fibrosis regression after 52 weeks of treatment and enabled preparation for a New Drug Application (NDA) submission in China.

The company targets a liver fibrosis market forecasted to grow at a 14% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) through 2030. Management has prioritized F351 by allocating approximately 40% of current R&D spend to regulatory advancement and rollout activities. Internal modeling estimates potential peak annual sales in excess of $400 million with initial market capture concentrated in hospital hepatology centers and specialty clinics.

Key metrics for F351:

• Phase 3 outcome: statistically significant fibrosis regression at 52 weeks
• R&D allocation: ~40% of current R&D budget
• Target market CAGR: 14% through 2030
• Estimated peak sales: >$400 million
• Regulatory pathway: NDA submission planned in China (post-2025)

Stars - Etorel captures expanding pulmonary fibrosis market

Etorel, launched in May 2025, rapidly attained Star status by addressing systemic sclerosis-associated interstitial lung disease (SSc-ILD) and progressive fibrosing interstitial lung disease (PF-ILD). The product contributed to a 20% year-over-year increase in quarterly revenue during Q3 2025 and recorded $1.5 million in sales in its first full commercial quarter.

Market penetration has been accelerated via Catalyst's distribution network spanning 35,512 hospitals and pharmacies across China. The pulmonary fibrosis segment shows high market growth driven by improved diagnostics and greater disease awareness worldwide, supporting continued revenue acceleration for Etorel.

• Commercial launch: May 2025
• Q3 2025 revenue impact: +20% YoY quarterly revenue
• First full quarter sales: $1.5 million
• Distribution footprint: 35,512 hospitals and pharmacies in China
• Target indications: SSc-ILD and PF-ILD

Stars - Contiva scales in the thrombocytopenia segment

Contiva, commercially launched in March 2025, targets thrombocytopenia associated with chronic liver disease and immune thrombocytopenic purpura (ITP). For the quarter ended September 30, 2025, Contiva generated $1.2 million in sales, demonstrating rapid adoption among liver disease specialists. Catalyst holds an indirect majority economic interest of 69.7% in the subsidiary responsible for Contiva revenues, leading to meaningful consolidated contribution.

Management's revised full-year revenue guidance of $115-118 million incorporates Contiva's high double-digit growth trajectory. The thrombocytopenia market segment is characterized by limited existing treatment options, enabling Contiva to secure rapid market share gains in a high-growth niche.

• Commercial launch: March 2025
• Q3 2025 sales (quarter ended Sep 30): $1.2 million
• Ownership interest in seller: 69.7% indirect majority
• Company full-year revenue guidance (updated): $115-118 million
• Market positioning: high-growth niche with limited alternatives

Catalyst Biosciences, Inc. (CBIO) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Cash Cows

Cash Cows

ETUARY provides stable high margin cash. ETUARY remains the flagship commercial product, having maintained a prominent market share in the Chinese idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) sector since its approval. For the full year 2024, the product generated 105 million dollars in net sales, providing the foundational liquidity for the company's newer ventures.

The segment operates with exceptionally high gross margins, which were reported at approximately 75 percent in the third quarter of 2025. Despite a mature market growth rate of roughly 6 percent, ETUARY continues to deliver consistent cash flow to fund the clinical pipeline and cover operating expenses related to commercialization and R&D support.

The company utilizes this steady income to maintain a cash and equivalents balance of over 80 million dollars as of late 2025. This balance reflects net cash generation after reinvestment in clinical programs, marketing and distribution scale-up, and general corporate expenditures.

Key operational characteristics and risks associated with ETUARY as a cash cow:

• Consistent high-margin revenues from an established IPF franchise generate predictable free cash flow.
• Moderate market growth (~6%) limits upside from market expansion; reliance on price, uptake, and share maintenance.
• Cash reserves (> $80M) provide runway but require disciplined allocation to avoid underfunding late-stage trials.
• Potential regulatory, competitive, or reimbursement changes in China could materially affect cash generation.
• High gross margins (~75%) help absorb R&D spending volatility while preserving corporate liquidity.

Liquidity deployment priorities tied to ETUARY cash generation include funding pivotal trials, supporting international commercialization initiatives, and maintaining a strategic reserve for potential licensing or partnership opportunities.

Catalyst Biosciences, Inc. (CBIO) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Question Marks

Dogs - Question Marks

F351 targets global MASH fibrosis market.

The expansion of F351 into the United States for MASH-associated liver fibrosis represents a classic question mark: very large addressable market but currently zero commercial share. F351 is pre-commercial with a Phase 2 proof-of-concept trial expected to initiate in the second half of 2025, subject to FDA clearance. The global market for MASH-associated liver fibrosis is estimated at > $10.0 billion annually. Catalyst currently reports zero U.S. or global commercial revenues for F351 while allocating capital to clinical development. Quarterly R&D specifically attributable to international expansion and trial setup contributes to the company's reported $3.4 million in quarterly research spending figure.

Key quantitative attributes for F351 include projected timelines, budgetary needs and market size estimates.

F351 strategic considerations and decision drivers are:

• Regulatory milestones: FDA clearance to initiate Phase 2 PoC in H2 2025.
• Capital allocation: incremental international trial expenses vs. other programs.
• Competitive landscape: multiple MASH candidates vying for indication and payer recognition.
• Clinical readouts: positive PoC would materially de-risk and support larger market capture assumptions.

F573 explores acute liver failure therapy.

F573 is a caspase inhibitor currently in Phase 2 clinical trials for treatment of acute and acute-on-chronic liver failure. The company expects to complete the trial by end-2026, positioning this asset as high-risk/high-reward. The market for liver failure treatments is growing at approximately 11% compound annual growth rate (CAGR). Catalyst holds 0% commercial market share today for acute liver failure therapies. R&D and operational expenditures tied to F573 make up a significant portion of the $11.4 million in reported operating spend through the first nine months of 2025.

F573 key strategic levers and uncertainties:

• Clinical outcome risk: Phase 2 endpoints must demonstrate meaningful survival or function benefit by end-2026.
• Geographic pricing strategy: achieving Category 1 status in China is critical to secure favorable reimbursement terms.
• Capital intensity: continued funding required to complete the trial; impacts near-term cash burn and dilution risk.
• Commercialization timing: even with positive data, market entry will require supply scale-up and payer negotiations.

Comparative snapshot of both question-mark assets highlighting transition triggers and resource needs.

Catalyst Biosciences, Inc. (CBIO) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Dogs

Question Marks - Dogs: This chapter examines legacy programs that have transitioned into discontinued or divested assets and now function effectively as 'Dogs' in the BCG framework for Catalyst Biosciences, Inc. (CBIO), with negligible market share and minimal growth prospects.

The legacy protease programs (Marzeptacog alfa and Dalcinonacog alfa) have been fully divested to GC Biopharma for total consideration of $6.0 million. A final contingent payment of $5.0 million was scheduled and recognized in February 2025, concluding CBIO's financial participation. As of December 2025 these assets contribute 0% to CBIO's active revenue and hold 0% market share in the hemophilia sector. Market growth for the specific protease therapies relevant to these assets has stagnated at ~3% annually, well below typical high-growth thresholds.

The discontinued complement portfolio was sold to Vertex Pharmaceuticals for $60.0 million. The transaction included a $5.0 million hold-back that was resolved in prior reporting periods. Post-sale, CBIO ceased R&D and capital deployment in protease engineering for complement disorders. This legacy segment now contributes 0% to revenue and 0% market share under CBIO's current organizational focus on organ fibrosis therapeutics.

Financial and operational summary of divested legacy assets:

Key implications for CBIO's portfolio positioning:

• These legacy assets are classified as Dogs: low relative market share (0%) and low market growth (~3% or stagnation).
• Divestitures generated one-time cash inflows ($66.0M aggregate consideration) but eliminated ongoing revenue streams and future upside from these segments.
• Zero ongoing capital allocation toward protease or complement R&D reduces operational complexity but removes optionality in adjacent therapeutic markets.
• Balance-sheet and cash-flow effects: immediate liquidity from sale proceeds versus loss of potential long-term royalties or milestone-driven income.
• Strategic focus shift: resources redeployed to organ fibrosis and other higher-priority programs, aligning with zero percent contribution from legacy units.

Quantitative impact on key metrics (post-divestiture):

Operational notes and risk considerations:

• No ongoing manufacturing, clinical development, or regulatory commitments for these assets remain on CBIO's active roster.
• Potential reputational or partner-risk is low given completed transfers and finalization of payments.
• Opportunity cost: capital and management bandwidth freed from these Dogs could be reallocated to higher-growth programs, but forfeits any delayed upside from legacy modalities.