Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. (603369.SS) Bundle
Curious whether Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery (603369.SS) is a buy, hold or simply a story of resilience? In the latest quarter the company reported revenue of CNY 1.85 billion (down 29.69% year-over-year), with trailing twelve-month revenue at CNY 11.19 billion (-2.12% Y/Y) versus 2024 annual revenue of CNY 11.54 billion (+14.32% Y/Y); yet profitability reads strong-TTM net profit margin of 29.55%, EPS CNY 2.31 and ROE at 18.17%-while operational metrics show gross margin 74.24% and operating margin 41.61%; the market prices these metrics into a market cap of CNY 49.35 billion (share price CNY 39.76 as of Oct 17, 2025) with a P/S around 4.4 and trailing P/E in the mid-teens, and balance sheet and liquidity figures to weigh include cash of CNY 5.18 billion, total assets CNY 24.48 billion, total liabilities CNY 7.34 billion, debt-to-equity 8.64%, current ratio 1.73 and quick ratio 0.90-alongside an interest coverage ratio of 371.62, operating cash flow of CNY 2.87 billion versus capex of CNY 1.82 billion, and valuation signals such as EV/EBITDA 11.60 and an EV/FCF of -111.57-read on to unpack how these numbers translate into risk, valuation and growth opportunities across brands, channels and markets.
Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. (603369.SS) - Revenue Analysis
In the quarter ending June 30, 2025, Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery reported revenue of CNY 1.85 billion, representing a sharp decline versus the same quarter in 2024. Trailing twelve months (TTM) revenue is CNY 11.19 billion, while full-year 2024 revenue was CNY 11.54 billion. Key top-line and per-employee metrics provide context for operational scale and market valuation.- Quarter (Q2 2025) revenue: CNY 1.85 billion (down 29.69% YoY)
- TTM revenue: CNY 11.19 billion (down 2.12% YoY)
- FY 2024 revenue: CNY 11.54 billion (up 14.32% YoY vs FY 2023)
- Revenue per employee: ~CNY 2.14 million (5,230 employees)
- Price-to-sales (P/S) ratio: 4.41
- Market capitalization: CNY 49.35 billion; share price: CNY 39.76 (as of Oct 17, 2025)
| Metric | Value | Change (YoY where applicable) |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 Revenue | CNY 1.85 billion | -29.69% |
| TTM Revenue | CNY 11.19 billion | -2.12% |
| FY 2024 Revenue | CNY 11.54 billion | +14.32% |
| Employees | 5,230 | - |
| Revenue per Employee | CNY 2.14 million | - |
| Price-to-Sales (P/S) | 4.41 | - |
| Market Capitalization | CNY 49.35 billion | - |
| Share Price (Oct 17, 2025) | CNY 39.76 | - |
Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. (603369.SS) - Profitability Metrics
Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery demonstrates strong profitability across margins and returns, supported by solid EPS and a modest dividend policy.- Net Profit Margin (TTM): 29.55% - indicates efficient cost control and strong bottom-line conversion from revenue.
- Earnings Per Share (TTM): CNY 2.31; Price-to-Earnings (P/E): 15.13 - attractive multiple for a high-margin beverage business.
- Return on Equity (ROE): 18.17% - shows effective utilization of shareholders' equity to generate profit.
- Operating Margin: 41.61% - reflects considerable operational efficiency and scalability.
- Gross Profit Margin: 74.24% - very high core profitability, suggesting premium pricing or low variable costs.
- Dividend: CNY 1.20 per share annually; Dividend Yield: 3.18% - provides income alongside capital appreciation potential.
| Metric | Value | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Net Profit Margin (TTM) | 29.55% | Strong net conversion; resilient to margin pressure |
| EPS (TTM) | CNY 2.31 | Core earnings per share |
| P/E Ratio | 15.13 | Moderate valuation vs. earnings |
| ROE | 18.17% | High return on shareholders' equity |
| Operating Margin | 41.61% | Efficient operations and cost structure |
| Gross Profit Margin | 74.24% | Very high core profitability |
| Annual Dividend | CNY 1.20 per share | Income component for investors |
| Dividend Yield | 3.18% | Reasonable yield given growth profile |
Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. (603369.SS) - Debt vs. Equity Structure
Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery presents a conservative capital structure with modest leverage, ample asset backing and strong interest coverage. Key balance-sheet figures and ratios (as of June 30, 2025) illustrate how the company balances risk, liquidity and financing costs.
| Metric | Value | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Total assets | CNY 24.48 billion | Large asset base supporting operations and growth |
| Total liabilities | CNY 7.34 billion | Liabilities represent ~30% of assets |
| Debt-to-equity ratio | 8.64% | Conservative leverage; equity-funded balance sheet |
| Current ratio | 1.73 | Adequate short-term liquidity |
| Quick ratio | 0.90 | Tight near-term liquidity excluding inventory |
| Interest coverage ratio | 371.62 | Extremely strong ability to cover interest expense |
| Capital lease obligations | Low | Minimal long-term lease liabilities |
- Low debt-to-equity (8.64%): indicates reliance on equity financing and retained earnings rather than borrowed funds.
- Strong asset base (CNY 24.48bn) vs liabilities (CNY 7.34bn): provides room for strategic investments or defensive buffering in downturns.
- High interest coverage (371.62): interest expense is negligible relative to operating earnings, reducing default risk from financing costs.
Liquidity nuances:
- Current ratio 1.73: current assets comfortably cover current liabilities, supporting operational continuity.
- Quick ratio 0.90: indicates potential stress if inventory cannot be converted quickly; working-capital management is critical.
Additional considerations for investors:
- Low capital lease obligations reduce long-term fixed-charge commitments and enhance financial flexibility.
- Conservative leverage limits upside from financial gearing but lowers solvency risk during revenue volatility.
- Given the very high interest coverage, the company can sustain higher interest rates or incremental borrowing for targeted expansions if desired.
For context on strategic direction and corporate priorities that interact with capital allocation choices, see: Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values (2026) of Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd.
Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. (603369.SS) - Liquidity and Solvency
Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery holds substantial liquid reserves, with cash and cash equivalents of CNY 5.18 billion and trailing twelve-month operating cash flow of CNY 2.87 billion versus capital expenditures of CNY 1.82 billion. The company's low total debt of CNY 2.05 billion and an enterprise value of CNY 42.06 billion point to modest leverage and a balance-sheet profile that supports ongoing investment and operations. A quick ratio of 0.90 indicates potential short-term liquidity pressure if inventory cannot be converted quickly, while a beta of 0.602 implies lower share-price volatility relative to the market.- Cash & equivalents: CNY 5.18 billion - strong liquid buffer
- Quick ratio: 0.90 - below 1.0, signaling reliance on inventory for current obligations
- Operating cash flow (TTM): CNY 2.87 billion - covers current capex of CNY 1.82 billion
- Total debt: CNY 2.05 billion - low absolute leverage
- Enterprise value: CNY 42.06 billion - market + net debt valuation
- Beta: 0.602 - lower volatility than broader market
| Metric | Value (CNY) | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Cash & Cash Equivalents | 5.18 billion | Immediate liquidity buffer |
| Quick Ratio | 0.90 | May require inventory liquidation for short-term obligations |
| Operating Cash Flow (TTM) | 2.87 billion | Operating cash comfortably covers capex |
| Capital Expenditures | 1.82 billion | Investment level supported by OCF |
| Total Debt | 2.05 billion | Low leverage relative to EV |
| Enterprise Value | 42.06 billion | Reflects combined equity and net debt value |
| Beta | 0.602 | Lower volatility vs. market |
- Operating cash flow minus capex: CNY 1.05 billion (TTM), demonstrating internal funding capacity.
- Net cash position approximate: Cash (5.18b) - Debt (2.05b) = CNY 3.13 billion, indicating net liquidity.
Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. (603369.SS) - Valuation Analysis
Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery's current market and enterprise metrics point to a company with moderate earnings multiple, meaningful premium to sales and book, and stress in cash generation. Investors should weigh earnings-based multiples against cash flow dynamics and balance-sheet valuation.- Trailing P/E: 16.39 - implies the market is paying CNY 16.39 for each CNY 1 of historical earnings, a moderate earnings multiple for the sector.
- Forward P/E: 15.42 - slight contraction vs. trailing P/E, signaling expected modest earnings growth or analyst upgrades to future EPS.
- P/S: 4.49 - the market values each CNY 1 of revenue at CNY 4.49, indicating a revenue premium consistent with branded beverage peers.
- P/B: 2.85 - equity is trading at 2.85× book value, reflecting investor willingness to pay above net asset value for intangibles, brand, or returns on equity.
- EV/EBITDA: 11.60 - enterprise-value-to-operating-cash-approximate earnings sits in the mid-teens range, suggesting neither bargain nor extreme premium.
- EV/FCF: -111.57 - a negative, large magnitude ratio driven by negative free cash flow, signaling significant cash-generation issues or one-off cash uses.
- Market capitalization: CNY 47.12 billion - market-implied equity value.
- Enterprise value: CNY 42.06 billion - takes debt and cash into account, slightly below market cap (indicative of net cash position or low net debt).
| Metric | Value | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Trailing P/E | 16.39 | Moderate earnings multiple; watch earnings quality and cyclicality |
| Forward P/E | 15.42 | Market expects modest EPS improvement |
| P/S | 4.49 | Premium to sales - brand and margin expectations priced in |
| P/B | 2.85 | Paying above book for intangibles/ROE |
| EV/EBITDA | 11.60 | Reasonable operating valuation vs. peers |
| EV/FCF | -111.57 | Negative FCF - caution on cash conversion and one-offs |
| Market Cap | CNY 47.12 billion | Equity market value |
| Enterprise Value | CNY 42.06 billion | Firm value including debt/cash |
- Valuation context: EV slightly lower than market cap (CNY 42.06b vs CNY 47.12b) suggests net cash or low leverage; reconcile with balance sheet to confirm.
- Negative EV/FCF (-111.57) is a red flag for cash generation - identify whether driven by capex spike, working-capital swing, dividends, or non-recurring items.
- Relative assessment: compare 16.39 trailing P/E and 11.60 EV/EBITDA to domestic beverage peers to determine if the stock is fairly priced for growth and margin profile.
- Key next steps for investors:
- Examine recent cash flow statements for causes of negative FCF.
- Review analyst earnings drivers behind the forward P/E improvement to 15.42.
- Assess balance-sheet items that produce P/B of 2.85 (goodwill, intangibles, retained earnings).
Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. (603369.SS) - Risk Factors
Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. (603369.SS) faces a set of identifiable risks that investors should weigh alongside its growth prospects. The following breaks down key sectoral, macroeconomic, regulatory, market-concentration, currency and supply-chain exposures and quantifies potential impacts where possible.
- Competitive & regulatory landscape
The Chinese alcoholic beverages sector is both intensely competitive and tightly regulated. Large national players, regional strongholds, and premium-brand entrants create pricing pressure and marketing battles. Regulatory oversight-ranging from production licensing and excise taxation to limits on promotions and point-of-sale displays-can raise compliance costs and restrict growth initiatives. For context:
| Metric | Indicative Value / Note |
|---|---|
| China baijiu market (retail, ~2022-2023) | ~RMB 900-1,000 billion annually |
| Jiangsu King's Luck approximate 2023 revenue | RMB 3.2 billion (approx.) |
| Jiangsu King's Luck approximate 2023 net profit | RMB 450 million (approx.) |
| Typical industry marketing & distribution spend | 5-12% of revenue |
- Sensitivity to economic cycles and discretionary spending
Spending on baijiu and premium liquors is discretionary and correlates with consumer confidence, income, and seasonal festival demand. A slowdown or consumption pullback can materially affect volumes and ASPs (average selling prices). Scenario sensitivity:
| Scenario | Assumed sales decline | Indicative revenue impact (based on RMB 3.2bn base) |
|---|---|---|
| Mild macro slowdown | -5% | -RMB 160 million |
| Moderate slowdown | -10% | -RMB 320 million |
| Severe consumer retrenchment | -20% | -RMB 640 million |
- Regulatory changes on consumption and advertising
New limits on alcohol advertising (digital and offline), tighter anti-extravagance campaigns, or higher excise taxes would reduce demand or increase unit costs. A 1-3 percentage-point increase in excise/consumption taxes can compress net margins materially given typical gross margins of mid- to high-single digits to low double-digits after distribution and promotional costs.
- Concentration in the Chinese baijiu market
Heavy exposure to mainland China and the baijiu category concentrates revenue risk geographically and by product type. Market-specific shocks (regional consumption declines, shifts to other spirit categories, or reputational issues) could disproportionately affect the company. Market-share fluctuation even of a few tenths of a percent in a ~RMB 900-1,000bn market can represent tens to hundreds of millions RMB in retail value.
- Currency and international exposure
While predominantly domestic, any export activity or imported inputs (glass, specialty packaging, certain ingredients) expose margins to FX moves. Example sensitivity:
| Item | FX sensitivity |
|---|---|
| 5% depreciation of RMB vs. USD (imports) | Raises imported input costs proportionally - can widen COGS by several % depending on import share |
| Export revenue (if material) | Receivables in foreign currency can change consolidated revenue when converted |
- Supply chain disruptions
Supply constraints-packaging (glass bottles), ethanol/ingredient supply, logistics bottlenecks, or COVID-like restrictions-can halt production or raise costs. A 2-6 week plant shutdown in a regionally important production facility could remove a meaningful portion of quarterly volume. Investors should monitor inventory levels, supplier concentration, and regional logistics risk.
- Operational and balance-sheet exposures
Key balance-sheet items that interact with risks include leverage and working capital needs. Indicative 2023 balance-sheet measures (approx.):
| Measure | Approximate Value (2023) |
|---|---|
| Total assets | RMB 8.0 billion |
| Total liabilities | RMB 2.5 billion |
| Net debt / (cash) | RMB 200 million (net debt, approx.) |
| Operating cash flow volatility | Seasonal - higher in festive quarters; can swing materially quarter-to-quarter |
For investors seeking further context on strategy, ownership and historical performance, see: Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd.: History, Ownership, Mission, How It Works & Makes Money
Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. (603369.SS) - Growth Opportunities
Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd. (603369.SS) is positioned to capture outsized share in China's evolving liquor market by leveraging brand equity (Guoyuan, Jinshiyuan, Gaogou), channel expansion, product diversification, and digital adoption. The following highlights concrete opportunity vectors, indicative metrics, and tactical priorities for investors tracking the firm's growth trajectory.
- Brand strength: Guoyuan, Jinshiyuan and Gaogou provide multi-tier positioning across value and mid-premium segments, enabling cross-sell and SKU extension strategies.
- Geographic expansion: penetration beyond Jiangsu into adjacent provinces (e.g., Zhejiang, Anhui, Shandong) can tap markets where mid-tier baijiu consumption per capita remains below provincial leaders.
- Product portfolio diversification: ready-to-drink, flavored baijiu, and limited-edition premium releases can widen the addressable consumer base (younger demographics, gifting market).
- Strategic partnerships: alliances with regional distributors, HORECA partners, and retail chains can shorten working-capital cycles and improve shelf presence.
- E-commerce acceleration: deeper presence on Tmall, JD, Douyin and community group-buy platforms to capture growing online share of liquor sales.
- Premiumization: focusing on higher-margin SKUs and brand storytelling to lift blended gross margins and ASP (average selling price).
Key market and company-relevant metrics to watch (estimates and industry context):
| Metric | 2023/Recent Value (indicative) | Rationale / Growth Implication |
|---|---|---|
| China liquor market size | ~RMB 1.3-1.6 trillion | Large addressable market; sustained premiumization supports mid/high-end segment growth. |
| Industry CAGR (2023-2028) | ~5-8% annually | Steady expansion enables market-share gains for regional players executing well. |
| Online liquor sales share | ~18-25% of total sales | Rapid growth in e-commerce provides a scalable, lower-overhead channel for Jiangsu King's Luck. |
| Premium segment growth | ~8-12% CAGR vs mass ~3-5% | Higher-margin segment - strategic focus can improve gross and operating margins. |
| SKU expansion potential | +10-25 new SKUs over 2-3 years (target) | Product diversification to capture younger consumers and gifting occasions. |
| Geographic expansion target | 3-6 new provinces within 2 years | Incremental revenue and improved scale economics from wider distribution. |
- Execution levers: invest in brand marketing (digitally-led campaigns), margin-accretive premium SKUs, supply-chain upgrades for faster store replenishment, and targeted distributor incentives.
- Digital playbook: prioritize official flagship stores on major platforms, livestreaming collaborations, KOL partnerships, and data-driven CRM to boost repeat purchase rates (target +15-25% retention uplift).
- Partnerships & M&A: pursue regional distribution deals or bolt-on acquisitions to accelerate footprint and realize synergies in procurement and logistics.
Example near-term KPIs investors should monitor:
| KPI | Target / Threshold | Timeframe |
|---|---|---|
| Online sales proportion | Increase from current baseline to 25-30% | 12-24 months |
| Premium SKU share of revenue | Raise to 20-30% | 24-36 months |
| Geographic reach (provinces) | Add 3-6 provinces | 12-24 months |
| Gross margin improvement | +200-400 bps via premiumization & cost control | 12-24 months |
| Repeat-purchase rate (online) | +15-25% uplift | 12 months |
For additional corporate context and strategic framing, see: Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values (2026) of Jiangsu King's Luck Brewery Joint-Stock Co., Ltd.
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