Exploring Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR) Investor Profile: Who’s Buying and Why?

You're looking at Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR) and asking the right question: who is actually buying this stock, and what's their thesis? The ownership structure is defintely a tripwire, showing a rare split where individual investors hold the largest piece of the pie at 52%, while institutions like BlackRock, Inc. and Vanguard Group Inc. collectively own about 38% of the company, representing nearly $197 million in total institutional holdings as of the third quarter of 2025. This isn't your typical institutional-heavy stock.

The core of the investor profile is the tension between the legacy medical device business and the new Bitcoin treasury strategy. In Q2 2025, the company's healthcare revenue dropped to just $8.2 million, a 43% decrease year-over-year, yet the company reported a net income of $66.9 million, or $5.04 per diluted share, thanks almost entirely to an unrealized gain on its digital assets. That's the whole story right there. As of July 31, 2025, Semler Scientific was sitting on 5,021 Bitcoins with a fair value of nearly $586.2 million, and that Bitcoin yield was up 31.3% year-to-date. Are investors buying a medical diagnostics company trading at $21.82 per share, or a Bitcoin holding company with a medical device sideline? Digging into the recent institutional buys-like BlackRock, Inc.'s increase of 223,725 shares in Q3-shows exactly which side of the balance sheet is driving the smart money's action and where the near-term risk truly lies.

Who Invests in Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR) and Why?

The investor profile for Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR) is a fascinating mix, largely defined by the company's dual strategy: a traditional medical device business and an aggressive Bitcoin treasury reserve policy. The direct takeaway is that institutional investors, including major asset managers and hedge funds, hold a significant stake, but the stock's volatility and unique Bitcoin exposure also draw a substantial, active retail crowd.

Key Investor Types and Ownership Breakdown

As of late 2025, the ownership structure of Semler Scientific is heavily weighted toward professional money managers, but with a large retail component. Institutional investors, those large firms like mutual funds and pension funds, hold the largest piece of the pie. One recent filing suggests institutional ownership is around 70.82% of the total shares outstanding, though other data points place this figure closer to 49.37%. Either way, it's a high percentage. Retail investors-you, me, and other individual traders-along with public companies, account for a substantial portion, sometimes estimated as high as 47.19%.

This high institutional interest is not just passive index tracking. You see major players like BlackRock, Inc., Vanguard Group Inc, and Morgan Stanley among the top holders, alongside active hedge funds such as Citadel Advisors Llc and Millennium Management LLC. They are looking for a very specific kind of exposure. Insiders, the company's own executives and directors, also maintain a notable stake, holding about 11.89% of the stock. That's a healthy sign of alignment.

• Institutional Investors: Drive stability and volume.
• Retail Investors: Provide liquidity and volatility.
• Insiders: Show management's skin in the game.

Investment Motivations: The Dual-Engine Thesis

What's attracting this diverse group? It boils down to two distinct, but now intertwined, growth narratives. The legacy business centers on the QuantaFlo® product, a patented, FDA-cleared device for diagnosing peripheral arterial disease (PAD). This is a stable, healthcare-driven revenue stream, though Q2 2025 revenues were $8.2 million, a 43% decrease year-over-year.

The real market driver, however, is the company's strategic pivot to adopt Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset. This move fundamentally changed the investment thesis, turning SMLR into a 'dual-engine platform'. Investors are buying in for amplified exposure to the digital asset's price appreciation. Here's the quick math on that: as of July 31, 2025, Semler Scientific held 5,021 Bitcoins with a fair value of nearly $586.2 million. This Bitcoin strategy generated a year-to-date BTC $ Gain of $84.0 million through July 31, 2025, which directly translated to a Q2 2025 pre-tax income of $80.6 million and net income of $66.9 million. That is a massive return on the treasury side, completely overshadowing the core business's operating loss of $2.1 million in the same quarter.

The pending transaction with Strive, Inc., which is explicitly focused on Bitcoin balance-sheet growth, is another significant, near-term catalyst that is defintely motivating buyers.

Investment Strategies in Play

The distinct motivations lead to two primary investment strategies among SMLR holders. You see a clear split between value-oriented, long-term holders and speculative, growth-focused traders.

The institutional side, including index funds and some long-only managers, practices a form of long-term holding or value investing (though the 'value' is now tied to the long-term appreciation of Bitcoin as a treasury asset). They are betting on the long-term success of the dual-engine model, viewing the core medical business as a cash-flow generator to fund the Bitcoin reserve. They are looking past the short-term revenue fluctuations in the medical device segment to the potential for massive capital appreciation from the digital asset holdings. You can learn more about the core business at Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR).

Conversely, many hedge funds and retail investors are employing a short-term trading or speculative growth strategy. Their focus is on the volatility of Bitcoin and the stock's reaction to news about the digital asset holdings or the Strive transaction. They are trading the correlation, using SMLR as a proxy for Bitcoin exposure in a stock portfolio. The high institutional ownership and the unique treasury strategy mean the stock can experience sharp moves based on changes in Bitcoin's price or institutional accumulation/distribution.

What this estimate hides is that the Bitcoin component makes SMLR less of a traditional healthcare stock and more of a crypto-exposure vehicle, meaning traditional valuation models (discounted cash flow on medical revenue) are largely irrelevant to the stock's current price action. Your action needs to be clear: are you investing in the medical device company or the Bitcoin treasury company?

Institutional Ownership and Major Shareholders of Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR)

If you're looking at Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR), the first thing to understand is that institutional money is defintely in the driver's seat. As of October 2025, institutional ownership stands at a significant 70.82% of the company, meaning the big players-mutual funds, pension funds, and asset managers-hold the majority of the stock.

This high level of institutional control means their collective decisions on buying or selling have an outsized impact on the stock price and the company's strategic direction. For a small-cap company, this concentration of ownership is a double-edged sword: it offers stability but can also lead to sharp price movements if a major holder decides to exit.

Top Institutional Investors and Their Stakes

The largest institutional investors in Semler Scientific, Inc. are a mix of traditional asset managers and more specialized funds, reflecting both passive index-tracking and active investment strategies. The data below is based on the most recent 13F filings for the period ending September 30, 2025.

Here's the quick math on who holds the most shares:

Note: Market Value is calculated using the share price of $21.82 as of November 14, 2025, for illustration.

It's no surprise to see giants like BlackRock, Inc. and Vanguard Group Inc. on this list. They run massive index funds that passively track the entire market, so they inherently own a piece of nearly every publicly traded company, including Semler Scientific, Inc. The presence of firms like Interchange Capital Partners, LLC, however, suggests a more active, deliberate investment thesis.

Recent Shifts in Institutional Ownership

The third quarter of 2025 showed a fascinating divergence among major holders, which tells you that not everyone agrees on the company's recent strategic pivot-specifically its adoption of Bitcoin as a primary treasury reserve asset and the pending merger with Strive, Inc.

Overall, institutional shares increased by 11.60% in the most recent quarter, totaling 11,859,897 shares held long. But if you look closer, the story gets more complex:

• Buyers Stepping In: BlackRock, Inc. was a major accumulator, adding 223,725 shares. Charles Schwab Investment Management Inc. also significantly increased its stake by 218,906 shares, a massive +226.1% change.
• Sellers Taking Profit: Interchange Capital Partners, LLC and Morgan Stanley slightly trimmed their positions, reducing their holdings by 16,650 and 66,281 shares, respectively. Citadel Advisors Llc made a more notable reduction, cutting its position by 214,022 shares.

What this estimate hides is the motivation. The large increase in institutional accumulation suggests that many funds are buying into the new, Bitcoin-centric narrative and the potential value unlocked by the merger with Strive, Inc. Others, like Citadel, might be taking profits or reallocating capital due to the increased volatility that comes with being a Bitcoin treasury company. For a deeper dive into the company's fundamentals, you can check out Breaking Down Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

The Role of Institutional Money in SMLR's Strategy

Institutional investors don't just hold shares; they hold power. Their role in Semler Scientific, Inc.'s stock price and strategy is currently magnified by two key factors: the Bitcoin strategy and the Strive merger.

First, their accumulation validates the company's bold move to become the second U.S. public company to adopt Bitcoin as its primary treasury reserve asset. When a major asset manager like BlackRock, Inc. increases its stake, it sends a strong signal to the market that the strategy is credible, helping to support the stock price. Second, in a pending all-stock transaction like the one with Strive, Inc., institutional investors will be the primary recipients of the new equity, making their approval and continued holding essential for the deal's stability and success.

The influence is also felt in governance. Institutions file Schedule 13D forms if they hold over 5% and intend to actively push for a change in strategy, or 13G forms for passive investments. While most of the top holders are passive, their sheer size means management is highly attentive to their concerns. The recent news of CEO Douglas Murphy-Chutorian filing to sell up to 72,000 shares, valued at $1.51 million, is a significant insider action that institutional investors will be watching closely as the merger approaches.

Key Investors and Their Impact on Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR)

If you're looking at Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR), you need to understand that the investor profile has fundamentally changed. It's no longer just a medical device play; it's a dual-strategy company where the Bitcoin treasury reserve is the primary magnet for new capital. This shift explains why you see a mix of traditional institutional giants and aggressive hedge funds buying in.

The company's ownership structure is unique, with individual investors-the general public-holding the largest stake at approximately 52% of shares outstanding as of mid-2025. But don't underestimate the institutional and insider influence. Insiders, like the Semler family and key executives, own a significant portion, roughly 11.89%, which aligns their interests directly with the company's strategic direction, particularly the Bitcoin pivot.

Notable Investors: The Institutional Giants and Bitcoin Bulls

The institutional roster for Semler Scientific, Inc. includes some of the biggest names in finance, which lends the stock a layer of credibility among professional investors, despite its small market capitalization. As of the latest filings (Q2 2025), institutions hold a total of over 11.8 million shares, with a total market value of around $197 million. This is not insignificant for a company of this size.

The presence of firms like BlackRock, Inc. and Vanguard Group Inc. is typical, as they often hold stakes through index funds, but the significant recent activity from hedge funds like Citadel Advisors Llc tells a different story. They are actively betting on the new strategy. Here's the quick math on the largest institutional holders based on Q2 2025 data:

The largest individual shareholder is Herbert J. Semler, owning over 1.59 million shares, which represents 10.49% of the company. That's a powerful vote of confidence from the founder's side. The company's Executive Chairman, Eric Semler, has been the public face of the shift to Bitcoin, which is the core reason for the recent investor excitement.

Investor Influence and Recent Moves: The Bitcoin Catalyst

The influence of these investors and the company's leadership is currently focused on maximizing the Bitcoin treasury strategy. This is the single biggest driver of stock movement in 2025. Semler Scientific, Inc. has been very clear about its intent to use capital from its healthcare operations, plus proceeds from equity and debt financings, to accumulate Bitcoin.

A key recent move was the massive capital raise through an At-the-Market (ATM) equity offering. Through July 31, 2025, Semler Scientific, Inc. sold 4,932,737 shares of common stock, generating net proceeds of approximately $194.3 million. This action, which typically dilutes shareholder value, was accepted by the market because the proceeds were used to buy more Bitcoin, bringing the total holdings to 5,021 Bitcoins with a fair value of nearly $586.2 million as of July 31, 2025. That's a clear signal: investors are buying shares to gain amplified exposure to Bitcoin.

• Citadel Advisors Llc increased its position by over 4,000% in Q2 2025, a massive bet on the new direction.
• The company is actively pursuing a business combination with Strive, Inc., a deal that was still pending in November 2025 and would further solidify the Bitcoin treasury focus.
• The appointment of Bitcoin advocate Natalie Brunell to the board of directors further cements the commitment to the Bitcoin-focused investor base.

The biggest risk here is that the stock price is now heavily correlated with the price of Bitcoin, plus the execution of the original medical device business, which saw Q2 2025 revenues of only $8.2 million. The investor base is defintely demanding a high-growth, high-conviction narrative, and the Bitcoin strategy delivers that, but it also introduces significant volatility. To understand the underlying health business, you should check out Breaking Down Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Next Step: Track the closing date and terms of the proposed Strive, Inc. business combination, as this will be the next major catalyst for the stock price and investor sentiment.

Market Impact and Investor Sentiment

You're looking at Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR) and seeing a stock with a split personality-a classic case of a company straddling two very different worlds: medical devices and Bitcoin treasury. The core investor sentiment is a mix of long-term institutional belief and near-term volatility, but the overall analyst view is remarkably bullish, even with a tough 2025.

The institutional backing is strong, with professional money owning about 49.37% of the stock, but it's the individual investors who hold the largest piece of the pie at roughly 52% of shares as of mid-2025. This means retail investors defintely have the power to sway key decisions, but they also felt the brunt of the recent price drops. For example, major players like Vanguard Group Inc. and BlackRock, Inc. are among the top institutional shareholders, showing a measure of professional trust in the company's long-term viability. Still, institutional investors have bought a total of 5,242,047 shares in the last two years, which signals a significant accumulation trend.

• Institutional Ownership: Approximately 49.37%.
• Individual Investor Ownership: Approximately 52%.
• Insider Ownership: Around 10% to 16.40%.

Recent Market Reactions and Key Ownership Moves

The market's response to Semler Scientific's news this year has been sharp, particularly around legal and strategic events. The stock's year-to-date share price return was deep in the red at -52% as of October 2025, a clear sign of investor anxiety.

The Department of Justice (DOJ) probe was a major headwind. When Semler Scientific first disclosed the risk of a False Claims Act lawsuit in February 2025, the stock fell 9.4%, closing at $38.89 per share. Then, the announcement in April 2025 of an agreement to pay a $29.75 million settlement caused another 9.9% drop, with the stock closing at $31.00. Those are painful, one-two punches that blindside investors.

But the market also rewards strategic pivots. The merger offer from Strive, Inc. in September 2025, valued at $471 million, caused the stock to jump 24% on the day of the announcement. This move, which positions Semler Scientific as a key consolidator in its sector, gave investors a much-needed shot of confidence. On the flip side, you have to watch insider actions: CEO Douglas Murphy-Chutorian filed in November 2025 to sell up to 72,000 shares, worth about $1.51 million, which can sometimes signal an executive monetizing equity ahead of a merger close.

Analyst Consensus and the Dual Strategy Impact

Here's the quick math on analyst views: despite the revenue decline of approximately -43.19% in the healthcare business as of June 30, 2025, Wall Street remains optimistic. The consensus rating from analysts like Benchmark and Maxim Group is a 'Moderate Buy' or 'Strong Buy'.

The average 12-month price target sits around $74.25 to $79.25, which represents a massive forecasted upside of about 302.00% from a recent price of $18.47. That's a huge gap, and it tells you everything about the dual-engine strategy: the market is pricing in significant success for either the Bitcoin treasury or the Strive merger, or both.

The analysts' conviction hinges on two things:

• The Bitcoin Treasury: Semler Scientific is one of the leading corporate holders of Bitcoin, with 3,808 bitcoins held as of May 12, 2025, with an aggregate purchase cost of $340.0 million. The healthcare free cash flow is being used to acquire this appreciating digital asset, which creates a differentiated value proposition.
• The Strive Merger: This strategic partnership is seen as a way to consolidate the sector and create additional value, especially with Strive's recent successful IPO.

What this estimate hides is the risk from the core business. You can read more about the underlying operational challenges in Breaking Down Semler Scientific, Inc. (SMLR) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors. The key takeaway for investors is that the stock's future is less about QuantaFlo's performance and more about the successful execution of the Strive merger and the performance of its Bitcoin treasury reserve.