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Valoración DCF de ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) |
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ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) Bundle
¡Mejore sus estrategias de inversión con la calculadora DCF ZTO! Explore los datos financieros reales para ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc., ajuste las proyecciones y gastos de crecimiento, y observe instantáneamente cómo estas modificaciones afectan el valor intrínseco de ZTO.
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) - (USD MM)
| Year | AY1 2020 |
AY2 2021 |
AY3 2022 |
AY4 2023 |
AY5 2024 |
FY1 2025 |
FY2 2026 |
FY3 2027 |
FY4 2028 |
FY5 2029 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 3,503.2 | 4,224.5 | 4,915.2 | 5,337.8 | 6,152.2 | 7,087.3 | 8,164.5 | 9,405.4 | 10,834.9 | 12,481.7 |
| Revenue Growth, % | 0 | 20.59 | 16.35 | 8.6 | 15.26 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 | 15.2 |
| EBITDA | 722.1 | 815.1 | 1,548.8 | 1,924.8 | 2,089.2 | 2,004.8 | 2,309.5 | 2,660.5 | 3,064.9 | 3,530.7 |
| EBITDA, % | 20.61 | 19.3 | 31.51 | 36.06 | 33.96 | 28.29 | 28.29 | 28.29 | 28.29 | 28.29 |
| Depreciation | 255.7 | 308.7 | 371.0 | 399.5 | 420.1 | 516.9 | 595.5 | 686.0 | 790.2 | 910.3 |
| Depreciation, % | 7.3 | 7.31 | 7.55 | 7.48 | 6.83 | 7.29 | 7.29 | 7.29 | 7.29 | 7.29 |
| EBIT | 466.4 | 506.4 | 1,177.8 | 1,525.3 | 1,669.1 | 1,487.9 | 1,714.0 | 1,974.5 | 2,274.6 | 2,620.3 |
| EBIT, % | 13.31 | 11.99 | 23.96 | 28.58 | 27.13 | 20.99 | 20.99 | 20.99 | 20.99 | 20.99 |
| Total Cash | 2,487.4 | 1,746.0 | 2,423.9 | 2,763.9 | 3,100.2 | 3,739.5 | 4,307.9 | 4,962.7 | 5,716.9 | 6,585.8 |
| Total Cash, percent | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 | .0 |
| Account Receivables | 105.7 | 135.7 | 117.9 | 80.2 | 870.5 | 344.2 | 396.5 | 456.7 | 526.2 | 606.1 |
| Account Receivables, % | 3.02 | 3.21 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 14.15 | 4.86 | 4.86 | 4.86 | 4.86 | 4.86 |
| Inventories | 7.4 | 11.5 | 5.6 | 3.9 | 5.4 | 10.7 | 12.4 | 14.3 | 16.4 | 18.9 |
| Inventories, % | 0.21048 | 0.27285 | 0.11459 | 0.07307338 | 0.08710111 | 0.15162 | 0.15162 | 0.15162 | 0.15162 | 0.15162 |
| Accounts Payable | 227.3 | 272.0 | 306.0 | 355.3 | 342.3 | 444.7 | 512.3 | 590.1 | 679.8 | 783.1 |
| Accounts Payable, % | 6.49 | 6.44 | 6.23 | 6.66 | 5.56 | 6.27 | 6.27 | 6.27 | 6.27 | 6.27 |
| Capital Expenditure | -1,279.3 | -1,296.0 | -1,029.9 | -926.7 | -820.0 | -1,684.5 | -1,940.5 | -2,235.5 | -2,575.2 | -2,966.6 |
| Capital Expenditure, % | -36.52 | -30.68 | -20.95 | -17.36 | -13.33 | -23.77 | -23.77 | -23.77 | -23.77 | -23.77 |
| Tax Rate, % | 24.85 | 24.85 | 24.85 | 24.85 | 24.85 | 24.85 | 24.85 | 24.85 | 24.85 | 24.85 |
| EBITAT | 399.4 | 419.6 | 967.8 | 1,248.0 | 1,254.3 | 1,213.0 | 1,397.4 | 1,609.8 | 1,854.4 | 2,136.3 |
| Depreciation | ||||||||||
| Changes in Account Receivables | ||||||||||
| Changes in Inventories | ||||||||||
| Changes in Accounts Payable | ||||||||||
| Capital Expenditure | ||||||||||
| UFCF | -510.0 | -557.2 | 366.7 | 809.4 | 49.5 | 668.8 | 66.0 | 76.0 | 87.5 | 100.8 |
| WACC, % | 4.69 | 4.68 | 4.67 | 4.67 | 4.63 | 4.67 | 4.67 | 4.67 | 4.67 | 4.67 |
| PV UFCF | ||||||||||
| SUM PV UFCF | 918.6 | |||||||||
| Long Term Growth Rate, % | 2.00 | |||||||||
| Free cash flow (T + 1) | 103 | |||||||||
| Terminal Value | 3,854 | |||||||||
| Present Terminal Value | 3,068 | |||||||||
| Enterprise Value | 3,986 | |||||||||
| Net Debt | 539 | |||||||||
| Equity Value | 3,447 | |||||||||
| Diluted Shares Outstanding, MM | 838 | |||||||||
| Equity Value Per Share | 4.11 |
What You Will Get
- Real ZTO Financial Data: Pre-filled with ZTO Express's historical and projected data for precise analysis.
- Fully Editable Template: Modify key inputs like revenue growth, WACC, and EBITDA % with ease.
- Automatic Calculations: See ZTO's intrinsic value update instantly based on your changes.
- Professional Valuation Tool: Designed for investors, analysts, and consultants seeking accurate DCF results.
- User-Friendly Design: Simple structure and clear instructions for all experience levels.
Key Features
- Accurate ZTO Financials: Gain access to reliable pre-loaded historical data and forward-looking projections.
- Adjustable Forecast Inputs: Modify highlighted cells for key metrics like WACC, growth rates, and profit margins.
- Real-Time Calculations: Automatic updates for DCF, Net Present Value (NPV), and cash flow evaluations.
- Interactive Dashboard: User-friendly charts and summaries to help visualize your valuation outcomes.
- Designed for All Levels: An intuitive layout tailored for investors, CFOs, and consultants alike.
How It Works
- 1. Download the Template: Obtain and open the Excel file featuring ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s preloaded data.
- 2. Modify Assumptions: Adjust essential inputs such as growth rates, WACC, and capital expenditures.
- 3. Analyze Results Immediately: The DCF model automatically computes intrinsic value and NPV.
- 4. Experiment with Scenarios: Evaluate various forecasts to explore different valuation results.
- 5. Present with Assurance: Deliver professional valuation insights to enhance your decision-making.
Why Choose This Calculator for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)?
- User-Friendly Interface: Perfect for both novices and seasoned professionals.
- Customizable Inputs: Adjust parameters effortlessly to suit your analysis.
- Real-Time Adjustments: Witness immediate updates to ZTO’s valuation as you change inputs.
- Preloaded Data: Comes with ZTO’s actual financial metrics for swift evaluations.
- Relied Upon by Experts: Utilized by investors and analysts for sound decision-making.
Who Should Use ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO)?
- Logistics Professionals: Develop comprehensive and accurate logistics models for operational analysis.
- Supply Chain Analysts: Evaluate delivery scenarios to optimize internal processes.
- Consultants and Advisors: Offer clients precise insights into the valuation of ZTO stock.
- Students and Educators: Utilize real-world logistics data to study and teach supply chain management.
- Industry Enthusiasts: Gain insights into how logistics companies like ZTO are valued in the market.
What the Template Contains
- Operating and Balance Sheet Data: Pre-filled ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO) historical data and forecasts, including revenue, EBITDA, EBIT, and capital expenditures.
- WACC Calculation: A dedicated sheet for Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), including parameters like Beta, risk-free rate, and share price.
- DCF Valuation (Unlevered and Levered): Editable Discounted Cash Flow models showing intrinsic value with detailed calculations.
- Financial Statements: Pre-loaded financial statements (annual and quarterly) to support analysis.
- Key Ratios: Includes profitability, leverage, and efficiency ratios for ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. (ZTO).
- Dashboard and Charts: Visual summary of valuation outputs and assumptions to analyze results easily.
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