Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. (002532.SZ): BCG Matrix [Dec-2025 Updated]

Tianshan Aluminum's portfolio balances high-growth, high-margin stars-high-purity aluminum, battery-grade foil, and integrated alumina-with cash-generating primary smelting and captive power that fund aggressive downstream expansion; overseas bauxite projects in Indonesia and Guinea are capital-hungry question marks that could secure long-term cost advantages if managed well, while legacy construction products and small-scale trading are low-return dogs likely to be deprioritized-making capital allocation a clear push toward scaling advanced materials and securing upstream feedstock to maximize future value.

Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. (002532.SZ) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Stars

High-purity aluminum: Tianshan maintains a dominant market position in the rapidly expanding global electronics and semiconductor markets. Global high-purity aluminum (HP Al) market value as of December 2025 is approximately 394 million USD with an expected CAGR of 5.1% through 2032. Tianshan operates a world-class HP Al production base with 60,000 tpa capacity, placing it among top-tier global suppliers. The segment benefits from high technical barriers, scale economics, and superior gross margins; 4N grade accounts for roughly 77% of global HP Al revenue today. CapEx is focused on ultra-high-purity 5N and 6N grades to capture accelerating demand: EV battery components and advanced LED lighting are driving an estimated 11.1% annual growth in demand for these ultra-high-purity inputs. Key financial/operational metrics are shown below.

Battery-grade aluminum foil: Battery foil is a high-growth engine driven by the EV transition and grid storage. The global battery foil market is forecast at ~3.12 billion USD by end-2025 with a ~23% CAGR. Tianshan has expanded downstream capacity with a planned 200,000 tpa battery foil project in Jiangyin and a 300,000 tpa foil blank capacity in Shihezi, creating an integrated upstream-to-downstream footprint that delivers cost advantages and margin capture. China represents >65% of global battery foil capacity, enabling scale and local demand capture. EV battery consumption metrics-10-20 m2 of foil per vehicle-favor Tianshan's strategic emphasis on ultra-thin 8 µm variants to support higher energy density and material efficiency.

• Global battery foil market (2025E): 3.12 billion USD
• Forecast CAGR: ~23%
• Tianshan planned battery foil capacity: 200,000 tpa (Jiangyin)
• Tianshan foil blank capacity: 300,000 tpa (Shihezi)
• China share of global capacity: >65%
• Foil usage per EV: 10-20 m2; target thickness: 8 µm

Integrated alumina production (Guangxi): Vertical integration into alumina gives Tianshan critical cost and supply security advantages. Jingxi Tiangui produced 2.28 million tonnes of alumina in 2024, a 7.55% YoY increase, with a full rated capacity of 2.5 million tonnes supporting the group's 1.2 million tonne primary aluminum output and enabling meaningful external sales. Despite domestic alumina price volatility through late 2025, the integrated model sustains a unit profit margin >400 RMB/ton, underpinning the group's regional market leadership and cushioning margins during commodity cycles. China's metallurgical-grade alumina output grew approximately 8.86% recently, reinforcing robust regional demand dynamics that Tianshan effectively services.

Star characteristics summary (internal strengths enabling sustained leadership):

• High market share in HP Al and battery foil end-markets supported by large-scale, specialized capacity.
• Integrated upstream alumina feedstock reduces feed cost volatility and protects margins (unit margin >400 RMB/ton).
• Focused CapEx on 5N/6N and ultra-thin 8 µm battery foil aligns with structural demand trends (EVs, LEDs, semiconductors).
• Geographic and product diversification: HP Al, battery foil, and large alumina throughput provide balanced growth drivers.
• Strong positioning in China where >65% of global battery foil capacity resides and regional alumina output growth near 8.86%.

Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. (002532.SZ) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Cash Cows

Cash Cows

Primary aluminum smelting is the group's principal cash cow, underpinning liquidity and funding for downstream growth initiatives. The company operates a 1.2 million tonne per year primary aluminum capacity in Xinjiang, delivering stable volumes into a market with ~4.59% annual growth. Trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue reached 29.62 billion CNY as of September 2025, with primary aluminum contributing the majority. TTM gross margin for the primary aluminum segment is 23.47% and segment ROI is 16.99%, reflecting efficient electrolytic operations and scale-driven cost advantages. Regional market dominance and long-term offtake structures ensure predictable cash conversion cycles and low receivables volatility.

Captive utilities and carbon anode manufacturing form embedded cash cows that stabilize unit costs and margin profiles. The company operates a 300,000-ton pre-baked anode facility and multiple thermal power plants sized to meet electrolysis electricity demand. Vertical integration reduces exposure to external energy and anode price swings, which can constitute up to 40% of aluminum production costs. Self-sufficiency for electricity and carbon anodes is maintained near 100%, supporting predictable input costs and protecting EBIT margins.

• Pre-baked anode capacity: 300,000 tonnes/year
• Self-sufficiency in power and anodes: ≈100%
• Energy cost exposure avoided: up to 40% of production cost
• Effect on net profit margin: supports 15.91% group net margin (late 2025)

Operational metrics and cash generation indicators emphasize these businesses as traditional Cash Cows: stable volumes from smelting, high gross margins, strong ROI, and near-complete internalization of expensive inputs. Free cash flow generation from these units funds capital allocation to higher-growth alumina processing, rolling, and value-added downstream segments while requiring limited external marketing spend.

Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. (002532.SZ) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Question Marks

Question Marks - Overseas bauxite mining assets acquired and developed as high-potential but currently low-relative-share investments that require substantial capital and management focus to become Stars or be divested as Dogs.

The Indonesian integrated project (PT Inti Tambang Makmur acquisition)

In late 2024 Tianshan completed the acquisition of PT Inti Tambang Makmur, obtaining indirect mining rights to three bauxite concessions in West Kalimantan totaling 29,000+ hectares. Mining development commenced by August 2025. The project is designed to feed a planned 2.0 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) alumina refinery and forms the upstream anchor of a prospective Indonesia-integrated alumina/aluminum value chain. Total estimated investment for the integrated Indonesian project is USD 1.556 billion, reflecting mine development, logistics, refinery CAPEX, and initial working capital.

The Guinea bauxite project (Elite Mining Guinea, 50% stake)

Tianshan holds 50% of Elite Mining Guinea, targeting 5-6 Mtpa bauxite production capacity. The first shipment was delivered in December 2024. The project is positioned as a secondary international resource base that could materially lower feedstock cost for Tianshan's alumina operations once scale and stable logistics are achieved. Current status remains early-stage commercial export scaling with significant logistical and geopolitical exposure.

Common attributes aligning both projects with the BCG 'Question Marks' quadrant

• High market growth exposure: participation in global bauxite supply where demand from alumina/aluminum producers remains cyclical but long-term structural.
• Low relative market share: new assets in markets dominated by established global miners (Guinea and Indonesia).
• High capital intensity: combined multi-hundred-million to billion-dollar CAPEX requirements (Indonesia: USD 1.556 billion; Guinea: phased investment to reach 5-6 Mtpa capacity).
• High operational and geopolitical risk: Indonesian regulatory complexity and Guinea logistics/political risk.
• High potential upside: access to priority low-cost ore and improved feedstock security could materially improve group margins if fully realized.

Key financial and operational milestones to monitor

• Indonesia: timetable for final permitting, full CAPEX drawdown schedule, commissioning date for 2.0 Mtpa refinery, projected ROI and payback period assumptions embedded in the USD 1.556 billion estimate.
• Guinea: ramp profile to 5-6 Mtpa, ongoing export tonnage per quarter (post-Dec 2024 baseline), infrastructure investments (port/rail), and contingency funding for geopolitical disruptions.
• Group-level impact metrics: expected annual ore supply (Mt), incremental alumina production (t/y), estimated unit cash cost reduction (USD/t) when projects are at steady state.

Principal risks specific to these Question Marks

• Regulatory and permitting risk in Indonesia: potential delays or additional requirements that increase CAPEX and delay revenue streams.
• Geopolitical/logistics risk in Guinea: export interruptions, higher freight costs, port congestion or infrastructure bottlenecks increasing delivered cost per tonne.
• Execution and integration risk: building and integrating upstream mines with downstream refinery operations to achieve planned synergies.
• Commodity price and demand cyclicality: weaker alumina/aluminum pricing can extend payback periods and stress capital allocations.
• Financing and currency exposure: large USD-denominated CAPEX and cross-border cash flows introduce FX and refinancing risks.

Tianshan Aluminum Group Co., Ltd. (002532.SZ) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Dogs

Legacy aluminum processing for low-margin construction and architectural applications is positioned as a 'Dog' within the portfolio: market growth is slow (industry forecast 3%-5% CAGR for commodity construction-grade aluminum versus double-digit growth in high-tech segments) while Tianshan's relative market share in these traditional extrusions is moderate-to-low due to intense domestic competition and overcapacity. Revenue from basic extruded products is being deprioritized as management reallocates resources toward higher value-added, higher-margin lines (high-purity alloys, battery-grade foil). Typical financial indicators for these legacy lines show gross margins in the range of 6%-10%, EBITDA margins near 2%-5%, and return on invested capital (ROIC) below corporate average, supporting a classification as Dogs rather than sustainable cash generators.

Small-scale external trading of third-party aluminum scrap and primary metal is also a low-performing Dogs segment: trading activity contributes disproportionately to revenue volatility and compresses consolidated margins during price swings. Aluminum price fluctuations observed in 2024-2025 (approx. USD 2,100-2,600/ton) materially squeezed trading margins. These pure trading operations commonly report gross margins of 1%-4%, significantly below Tianshan's corporate average gross margin of 23.47%, and generate limited strategic synergies with the group's integrated 'bauxite-to-foil' value chain.

Key quantitative snapshot of Dog segments (estimated FY figures unless stated):

Operational and financial risks associated with these Dogs:

• Margin erosion from input-cost volatility and excess domestic capacity.
• Capital tied up in low-return extrusion assets reduces funding available for high-return projects (battery-grade foil, high-purity alloys).
• Trading exposure increases earnings volatility; inventory and receivables tied to third parties raise working-capital requirements.
• Regulatory and demand pressure from a slowing Chinese real estate sector could reduce volumes by mid-single digits year-over-year in the short term.

Practical portfolio actions consistent with BCG guidance and management signals:

• Halt incremental capex for basic extrusion capacity and redirect maintenance capex only as required to preserve safety and contractual supply obligations.
• Evaluate selective divestment or JV opportunities for non-core trading desks and low-performing extrusion lines to recycle capital into 'Stars' (battery foil) and 'Question Marks' (advanced alloys).
• Consolidate production footprints to improve fixed-cost absorption; target a 200-400 bps improvement in segment EBITDA margin via scale and cost-out where feasible.
• Implement product rationalization to discontinue SKUs with sub-5% gross margins and reallocate sales focus toward niche architectural or value-added extrusions with >12% gross margin potential.