D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret A.S. (HEPS): SWOT Analysis [Dec-2025 Updated]

Hepsiburada (HEPS) sits at a pivotal moment: its powerful logistics arm (Hepsijet), deepening fintech wallet ecosystem (Hepsipay) and marketplace scale give it the infrastructure and cash flexibility to capture Turkey's fast-growing e‑commerce and BNPL demand, especially now reinforced by Kaspi.kz's strategic backing-yet persistent net losses, inflation-driven accounting distortions, shrinking active users and rising credit costs cloud near-term profitability; if management can convert its logistical and fintech moats into sustainable margins while navigating fierce rivals, regulatory shifts and macro‑political volatility, HEPS could turn its current scale into durable leadership-otherwise those external and internal threats may erode its position.

D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret A.S. (HEPS) - SWOT Analysis: Strengths

Hepsiburada's logistics arm, Hepsijet, constitutes a core operational strength by directly driving top-line growth and operational efficiency. In Q3 2025 Hepsijet-led delivery service revenue increased 24.4% year-over-year, and the logistics segment contributed a 55 basis point improvement in gross contribution margin, lifting overall gross contribution margin to 12.1% in Q3 2025. Hepsijet's expansion into off-platform customers-now servicing 127 leading external retailers-demonstrates its evolution into a standalone logistics provider rather than a purely captive network. The company's six strategically located warehouses across Turkey underpin fulfillment for 22.1 million orders in Q3 2025, supporting high service levels and customer satisfaction (Net Promoter Score of 75 as of late 2024).

Key logistics and fulfillment metrics

Hepsipay and the fintech ecosystem act as a competitive moat by increasing customer stickiness, enabling higher order frequency and offering alternative financing in a high-inflation environment. By November 2024 Hepsipay had 17.6 million wallet customers and 21.1 million stored cards. For the twelve months ending Q3 2024 total financed transaction volume (BNPL and shopping loans) reached TRY 13.6 billion. In Q3 2025, other revenue (including Hepsipay and advertising) expanded by 18.4% year-over-year. BNPL adoption exceeds 465,000 customers and contributed to a 7% lift in order frequency, which reached 7.2 orders per active customer in Q3 2025.

Fintech performance snapshot

The company's marketplace-first model minimizes inventory risk and capital intensity while delivering broad selection. Marketplace (3P) GMV comprised 69.2% of total GMV in Q3 2025. The active merchant base reached 101.3 thousand as of September 30, 2025 (+1.5% year-over-year). Marketplace revenue grew 8.4% in Q3 2025 while 1P revenue expanded 24.8%, highlighting a balanced hybrid approach that leverages high-margin 1P opportunities without sacrificing marketplace scale. Hepsiburada Premium loyalty membership stood at 3.7 million by end-2024, supporting repeat purchase behavior and higher lifetime value.

Marketplace and merchant metrics

Financial resilience is a material strength, providing runway for continued investment amid market volatility. Free cash flow rose to TRY 2,584.3 million in Q3 2025 from TRY 2,104.7 million a year earlier. In early 2025 Kaspi.kz acquired a 65.4% stake, delivering strategic fintech and e-commerce expertise. Approximately 80% of cash holdings were denominated in U.S. Dollars as of late 2023, offering a partial natural hedge against Turkish Lira depreciation. Hepsiburada invested TRY 993 million in performance marketing in Q3 2025 while managing a reported net loss of TRY 1,324.8 million in the same quarter-demonstrating capacity to fund growth while navigating profitability headwinds.

Financial position and capital metrics

Consolidated list of core strengths

• Integrated logistics via Hepsijet: scalable off-platform revenue and improved margins.
• Advanced fintech capabilities (Hepsipay): large wallet base, BNPL adoption and increased order frequency.
• Marketplace-dominant model: 69.2% 3P GMV limiting inventory risk and enabling assortment scale.
• Robust liquidity and strategic backing: sizable free cash flow, USD-denominated cash and Kaspi.kz investment.
• Strong customer metrics: high NPS (75) and large loyalty program membership (3.7M Premium members).

D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret A.S. (HEPS) - SWOT Analysis: Weaknesses

Persistent net losses and declining EBITDA margins underline Hepsiburada's ongoing profitability challenges. In Q3 2025 the company reported a net loss of TRY 1,324.8 million, versus a net loss of TRY 409.7 million in Q3 2024. EBITDA fell 74.3% year-over-year to TRY 173.8 million in Q3 2025, down from TRY 676.8 million in Q3 2024, driving the EBITDA margin (as a percentage of GMV) down to 0.3% from 1.2% in the prior-year quarter. Key drivers included a 0.9 percentage point increase in advertising expense and a 0.4 percentage point rise in shipping costs, which together exerted acute pressure on margins as the company prioritized GMV and market share over short-term profitability.

Key financial metrics (Q3 2024 vs Q3 2025):

High sensitivity to hyperinflationary accounting under IAS 29 reduces financial transparency and predictability. Turkey's annual inflation of 33.3% as of September 2025 requires restated financials, generating material monetary gains or losses that can mask operational performance. In Q3 2025 Hepsiburada reported a TRY 337.5 million monetary gain under IAS 29 adjustments. The disparity between inflation-adjusted and unadjusted metrics is substantial: unadjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was TRY 706.9 million versus the adjusted EBITDA of TRY 173.8 million. Average order value (AOV), when adjusted for inflation, declined by 7.4% in Q3 2025, highlighting that nominal price increases are insufficient to offset rising costs.

Financial reporting comparison: inflation-adjusted vs unadjusted (Q3 2025)

Declining active customer base signals potential retention and acquisition inefficiencies. Active customers decreased 2.3% year-over-year to 11.6 million as of September 30, 2025 (from 11.9 million). This contraction occurred despite a massive advertising spend of TRY 993.0 million in Q3 2025, nearly double Q3 2024's TRY 528.1 million, suggesting diminishing marginal returns on performance marketing and potential weakening of organic acquisition channels. Although order frequency per active customer rose to 7.2, the shrinkage in the total active customer pool caps scale and monetization potential.

Customer metrics (as of 30 Sep 2025)

Elevated financial expenses and credit risk exposure strain liquidity and the balance sheet. Net financial expenses increased by TRY 618.9 million in Q3 2025, largely attributable to higher commission expenses for the early collection of credit card receivables. Hepsipay's Cost of Risk (CoR) stood at approximately 2.65% as of October 2024, and loan loss provisioning is material - TRY 106.9 million in provisions recorded in Q1 2025. Expansion of BNPL and consumer loan products increases exposure to defaults in a tightening macroeconomic environment and high domestic interest rates, heightening the drag on net income and cash reserves.

Financial exposure snapshot:

Consolidated weaknesses summary:

• Persistent net losses and sharply reduced EBITDA margins despite GMV growth.
• High sensitivity to IAS 29 hyperinflation adjustments, creating volatility and opaque operational signals.
• Shrinking active customer base amid sharply higher advertising spend, indicating weakening organic growth and rising acquisition costs.
• Rising financial expenses and increasing credit risk from fintech/lending operations, requiring higher provisions and pressuring cash flows.

D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret A.S. (HEPS) - SWOT Analysis: Opportunities

Rapid expansion of the Turkish e-commerce market presents a material growth runway for Hepsiburada. The market is projected to reach USD 93.54 billion in 2025 and is expected to grow at a CAGR of 10.61% through 2030. E-commerce penetration reached approximately 20.4% of total retail sales by 2023 across a population of ~85 million, leaving significant headroom for further digital adoption. Turkey has over 77 million internet users and a mobile-first consumer base where ~72% of transactions occur on mobile devices, aligning with Hepsiburada's mobile-centric channels. These macro tailwinds support scaling GMV beyond TRY 96.4 billion recorded in H1 2025 and improving customer acquisition metrics while leveraging existing logistics and marketplace infrastructure.

Key market metrics:

Strategic partnership with Kaspi.kz creates regional expansion and technology synergies. Kaspi's acquisition of a majority stake in January 2025 enables Hepsiburada to pursue Central Asia and Caucasus markets using Kaspi's "Super App" blueprint that integrates payments, marketplace and fintech. The tie-up provides access to advanced data analytics, fintech product design, and proven BNPL/lending mechanics which can be applied to Hepsiburada's Hepsipay and HepsiGlobal E‑Export initiatives. Cross-border trade and shared technology platforms can drive revenue diversification and operational efficiencies that may reduce the company's TRY 1,324.8 million net loss through improved unit economics and higher take-rates on financial services.

Partnership operational levers:

• Cross-border marketplace expansion via HepsiGlobal and E‑Export capabilities.
• Integration of Kaspi's data analytics for pricing, recommendation and fraud reduction.
• Fintech product refinement for BNPL, merchant lending and wallet adoption.
• Shared marketing and logistics synergies to lower CAC and delivery costs.

Growing demand for Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) in a high‑inflation environment supports Hepsipay's expansion. Turkey's inflation at 33.3% (Sep 2025) increases consumer demand for affordability solutions. Hepsipay's BNPL, with 465,000 users to date, can scale within an estimated USD 40 billion Turkish consumer loan market. Affordability solutions penetration reached 8.8% of GMV by end‑Q3 2024, indicating consumer willingness to use credit-linked checkout. With conventional credit card interest rates remaining elevated, Hepsipay's internal lending and installment options can increase average order value (AOV) and repeat purchase frequency, contributing to higher-margin "other revenue," which grew 18.4% in the latest reported quarter.

BNPL and fintech growth indicators:

Regulatory shifts favoring local platforms create a more balanced competitive landscape. Amendments to the Turkish E‑commerce Law (Law No. 6563) effective through 2025 aim to curb monopolistic practices by limiting advertising spend and banning private label sales by dominant firms, reducing the ability of single players to win market share via asymmetric discounting. New rules effective April 1, 2025 require foreign sellers to appoint local representatives, likely decelerating cross‑border marketplace competition. Hepsiburada can benefit from these dynamics by leveraging established local compliance, consumer trust and marketplace scale to stabilize marketing spend and improve long‑run unit economics.

Regulatory effects summary:

• Limits on advertising spend reduce distortionary discounting and preserve margins industry‑wide.
• Ban on private label sales for dominant players prevents predatory product placement.
• Requirement for foreign sellers to register local representatives (effective 01‑Apr‑2025) raises entry friction for cross‑border rivals.
• Improved consumer trust and transactional transparency for compliant domestic platforms.

Combined, these opportunities-large e‑commerce growth, Kaspi partnership, BNPL adoption in a high‑inflation environment, and regulatory rebalancing-position Hepsiburada to accelerate GMV growth, expand fintech revenue streams, enter adjacent regional markets, and improve profitability metrics versus the current net loss trajectory. Tactical execution across product, payments, logistics and regulatory compliance will determine the pace at which these external opportunities convert into sustainable financial outcomes.

D-Market Elektronik Hizmetler ve Ticaret A.S. (HEPS) - SWOT Analysis: Threats

Intense competition from global and local giants threatens market share and margins. Hepsiburada faces fierce competition from Trendyol (estimated 35-40% market share) and Amazon Turkey, which has been expanding logistics and Prime services. Trendyol's scale and Alibaba backing enable sustained aggressive discounting and marketing that HEPS may struggle to match; Amazon's global reach and technology present additional pricing, selection and fulfillment pressure. Competitive intensity forced Hepsiburada to increase advertising spend by 0.9 percentage points of GMV in Q3 2025 merely to defend market position. If price wars escalate, HEPS's target sustainable EBITDA margin of 1.8%-2.0% is at material risk.

Severe macroeconomic volatility and high inflation in Turkey erode consumer purchasing power and raise supply costs. Annual inflation declined from 49.4% to 33.3% by September 2025 but remains among the world's highest, depressing discretionary spend. High policy interest rates raise consumer credit costs and reduce demand for electronics (core category). HEPS reported a 14.8% decline in GMV and a 7.9% drop in revenue in Q1 2025, attributing the downturn to counter-inflationary measures. Continued Turkish Lira devaluation increases import costs for goods and technology infrastructure, complicating margin management across 12.1 million active customers.

Evolving and stringent regulatory environment increases compliance costs and operational risks. The Ministry of Trade's secondary legislation (e.g., March 8, 2025 regulation) clarifies intermediary obligations; new licensing requirements based on transaction volume effective January 1, 2025 add administrative burden and potential fees. Upcoming Distance Contracts Regulation changes on January 1, 2026 will extend consumer return periods and expand withdrawal rights, increasing logistics and reverse-flow costs. Non-compliance risks heavy fines or product listing blocks under Law No. 7223, forcing continuous legal monitoring and potential strategic pivots from growth to compliance.

Political instability and consumer boycotts can trigger sudden drops in transaction volume. HEPS reported politically driven consumption boycotts in early 2025 that materially affected order volumes and marketing effectiveness. Platform-targeted boycotts or backlash related to perceived affiliations (e.g., ownership changes such as the Kaspi.kz acquisition) can rapidly depress sales. For a platform processing 22.1 million orders in a quarter, even a modest reduction (e.g., 5%) translates into more than 1.1 million fewer orders and a significant revenue impact in Lira terms, amplifying volatility beyond normal market risks.

• Regulatory specifics: March 8, 2025 intermediary obligations clarification; transaction-volume-based licensing effective Jan 1, 2025; Distance Contracts extension of return/withdrawal rights effective Jan 1, 2026; enforcement under Law No. 7223.
• Financial sensitivities: Q3 2025 ad spend increased +0.9 pp of GMV; Q1 2025 GMV -14.8%; revenue -7.9%; active customers 12.1M; quarterly orders 22.1M.