Helios Towers plc (HTWS.L): BCG Matrix [Dec-2025 Updated]

Helios Towers' portfolio is sharply bifurcated: high-growth 'Stars' like the DRC, Oman and Tanzania (driving tenancy and margin expansion) are the primary recipients of discretionary CAPEX, while mature Central & Southern Africa assets-notably Ghana and Congo Brazzaville-serve as reliable Cash Cows funding buybacks and deleveraging; mid-tier Question Marks such as Senegal, Madagascar and Malawi require selective investment to lift tenancy, and underperforming Dogs (South African sites, legacy services and low-tenancy rural towers) are being deprioritized, freeing capital to back hard‑currency growth and margin accretion-read on to see how this mix shapes Helios Towers' allocation choices and upside potential.

Helios Towers plc (HTWS.L) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Stars

Stars

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is a Star for Helios Towers, combining very high market growth with a commanding relative market position. As of December 2025 the DRC generated the single largest share of individual country revenue for the group. Mobile penetration remains low at ~25% and data consumption is projected to quadruple by 2030, underpinning an estimated 6% annual growth in mobile connections that drives structural demand for tower capacity.

Helios operates 2,712 towers in the DRC with a market-leading tenancy ratio of 2.57x versus the group average of 2.16x. During H1 2025 the company added 119 new towers and 559 tenancies in the DRC, reflecting targeted CAPEX deployment to capture rapid subscriber and data growth. The DRC's high tenancy and scale materially contribute to group profitability; with a record Adjusted EBITDA margin of 54% across the group, the DRC segment is a significant contributor to the $470 million EBITDA target for FY 2025.

The Oman / Middle East entry is a Star reflecting high growth potential combined with rapid tenancy build-out and strong margin delivery. H1 2025 revenue from Oman was $36.8 million. Helios acquired 2,890 sites from Omantel, and the Oman business delivered a healthy 68% margin in early operations. The tenancy ratio in Oman improved to 1.72x (from 1.56x in 2024) driven by new colocations from Ooredoo and Vodafone Oman. As of December 2025 Oman represents ~9% of total group revenue and plays a strategic role in hard-currency revenue generation due to the Omani rial's peg to the US dollar.

Oman is a discretionary CAPEX priority within a group-wide CAPEX envelope of $100-130 million. The hard-currency stability and rapid tenancy accretion make Oman a high-investment Star expected to scale revenue and margins, supporting the group's target to maintain ~67% of revenues in hard or pegged currencies.

• Key Oman drivers: immediate revenue from acquisition, high early margin (68%), tenancy growth from Ooredoo/Vodafone Oman, hard-currency stability.

Tanzania is a Star by scale and high tenancy economics. With 4,251 sites and 11,010 tenants as of late 2025, Tanzania is Helios' largest market by tower count. The tenancy ratio stands at 2.59x, reflecting strong multi-operator demand in a market where mobile connections are growing at an 8% CAGR. Demographic tailwinds-two-thirds of the population under 25-support sustained 6% annual growth in mobile connections through 2029, creating predictable long-term colocations and recurring revenue.

Helios adds roughly 76 sites per year in Tanzania to meet ongoing demand. The market materially supports group Adjusted EBITDA growth; Tanzania is a principal contributor to the reported 11% year-on-year Adjusted EBITDA increase, which reached $345.6 million for the first nine months of 2025.

• Key Tanzania drivers: largest site base (4,251), high tenancy (2.59x), strong demographic tailwinds, steady organic site additions (~76 p.a.), meaningful EBITDA contribution.

Helios Towers plc (HTWS.L) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Cash Cows

Cash Cows

The Central and Southern Africa operations (ex-DRC) function as the group's primary Cash Cow, generating $216.3 million in revenue in H1 2025 and accounting for more than 50% of group revenue. This segment posts a tenancy ratio of 2.23x, produced free cash flow of $48.7 million by Q3 2025, and has driven ROIC to 12.9% as capital intensity declined under the '2.2x by 2026' initiative. With 99% of revenues derived from multinational MNOs (principally Airtel and MTN), these markets supply predictable cash inflows that underpin the $75 million share buyback program and support group-wide discretionary CAPEX constraints.

Ghana's tower portfolio and services represent a mature Cash Cow within the portfolio, delivering steady revenue, high market share among independent providers, and contributing materially to the group's 54% Adjusted EBITDA margin as of December 2025. Ghana requires lower discretionary CAPEX versus high-growth markets, with maintenance and non-discretionary spend prioritized and group-wide discretionary CAPEX capped at $50 million. Deleveraging has been effective: net leverage declined from 4.2x to 3.6x over the last year. Long-term master lease agreements in Ghana average seven years remaining, providing highly visible, resilient cash flows that reduce financing risk.

Congo Brazzaville operates as a stable, high-margin Cash Cow supported by a low-competition environment (two MNOs) and consistent tenancy that preserves operational efficiency. This market contributes to the group's $5.5 billion of total contracted future revenue and maintains power uptime of 99.99%, enabling high conversion of revenue to free cash flow. Cash from Congo Brazzaville helps fund strategic initiatives including the 'IMPACT 2030' pathway toward $400 million in shareholder distributions.

• Predictability: Long-term leases and multinational MNO tenancy deliver high cash visibility.
• Margin conversion: Mature markets drive elevated Adjusted EBITDA and strong FCF conversion.
• Capital efficiency: Realized tenancy targets reduce capital intensity and improve ROIC.
• Risk concentration: High reliance on a small set of large MNOs increases counterparty exposure.

Helios Towers plc (HTWS.L) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Question Marks

Senegal market expansion and lease-up is classified as a Question Mark within Helios Towers' portfolio due to a relatively low tenancy ratio of 1.12x as of late 2025, indicating significant headroom for colocation growth. The market sits within high-growth West African data demand driven by 4G/5G rollouts and rising smartphone adoption; mobile penetration in the region is forecast to reach 37% by 2030. Current operations require elevated CAPEX to integrate and upgrade sites acquired from incumbent MNOs, with integration and power upgrades representing the bulk of near-term capital intensity. Management guidance attributes tenancy-driven ROIC accretion of approximately 50-100 basis points for every 0.1x increase in tenancy ratio, making lease-up the primary lever for turning this Question Mark into a Star.

The Senegal segment currently contributes to the $165.2 million East and West Africa revenue pool but is not singled out in statutory reporting for standalone profitability; its EBITDA margin is presently below the group average due to high depreciation and commissioning costs. Key operational focuses include improving site power resilience, accelerating colocation sales cycles, and reducing time-to-market for new tenants. Typical site-level economics today show negative or low single-digit free cash flow for newly commissioned sites until tenancy exceeds ~1.5x.

Madagascar is a smaller developing Question Mark within Central and Southern Africa, characterized by a low tenancy ratio and nascent colocation opportunity set. The broader African telecom tower market is expected to grow at a 3.56% CAGR through 2030, which provides a supportive macro backdrop. Helios Towers' investments in Madagascar emphasize site preparation, diesel-to-hybrid power transitions, and improving site uptime to attract additional tenants beyond the anchor MNO. The market contributes to the group's 156 million population coverage metric but shows lower ROI versus established markets like Tanzania due to limited MNO competition and longer commercial ramp timelines.

Operational efficiency programs such as Lean Six Sigma are being deployed to lift Madagascar performance; 63% of employees have received Lean Six Sigma training, which should reduce mean time to repair (MTTR), lower energy costs, and improve colocation conversion rates over time. Current ROI on Madagascar sites remains below the group weighted average ROI and is forecast to remain muted until tenancy reaches approximately 1.4-1.6x.

Malawi represents a nascent Question Mark with a low initial tenancy ratio, only two major MNOs in-country, and CAPEX that is largely discretionary and concentrated on new builds to satisfy rural coverage mandates. The limited number of MNOs constrains immediate colocation upside but creates first-mover advantages if additional operators or MVNOs enter or if MNOs expand 4G capacity. Revenue contribution to the group trailing 12 months revenue of $820 million is modest; Malawi's sites currently contribute materially less than 1% of consolidated revenue.

Future profitability in Malawi is contingent on successful 4G rollouts by existing MNOs, regulatory incentives for infrastructure sharing, or the arrival of new players. Typical commissioning economics assume a multi-year payback with positive free cash flow only after tenancy exceeds ~1.6x and after initial discretionary CAPEX is recovered.

• Opportunities: tenancy-driven ROIC upside, first-mover site placements, supportive 4G/5G demand
• Risks: high initial CAPEX, long lease-up periods, limited immediate MNO competition (Malawi), integration costs (Senegal)
• Operational levers: accelerate colocations, deploy Lean Six Sigma to reduce OPEX and MTTR, prioritize power hybridization to improve site economics

Helios Towers plc (HTWS.L) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Dogs

Dogs - South Africa mature low-growth sites: The South African segment is a mature, low-growth cluster with limited tenancy expansion potential. Market structure includes five national MNOs and significant carrier-owned towers, constraining market share gains for independent towercos. As of December 2025 the Helios Towers South Africa portfolio represents approximately 6% of group revenue and exhibits a tenancy ratio of ~1.6x versus a group target of 2.2x. Annual tenancy growth in the region has averaged ~1-2% over 2023-2025, materially below DRC and Tanzania growth rates (DRC: ~8% CAGR tenancy; Tanzania: ~6% CAGR tenancy). Higher per-site maintenance intensity (estimated ~20% above group average) and longer permitting cycles reduce incremental ROIC, prompting a lower discretionary CAPEX allocation in the 2026 planning cycle.

Dogs - Non-core managed services and legacy assets: Certain legacy managed services and non-core infrastructure across markets are classified as Dogs due to declining margins, low growth and high operational overhead. These services (site selection, preparatory civil works for third parties, and legacy managed hosting contracts) contributed <1% of group revenue as of late 2025 and showed negative revenue growth Y/Y in FY2025. The group has reallocated investment toward colocation and build-to-suit offerings, which are delivering ~10% Y/Y revenue growth and materially higher ROIC (estimated mid-to-high single-digit percentage points above legacy services). Legacy sites with tenancy potential below 1.5x are being de-prioritized under the 2026 Sustainable Business Strategy; many of these exhibit higher downtime per tower (average downtime 7-12 hours/month) compared with portfolio targets and thus negatively affect the group's power uptime objective of 99.99%.

Dogs - Rural sites with low tenancy potential: Although Helios Towers met and exceeded its 2026 rural footprint target of 6,000 sites ahead of schedule, a significant subset operate with a single tenant (tenancy ratio ≈1.0x). These rural assets produce lower ROIC and require disproportionately high maintenance and logistics CAPEX (estimated 25-40% higher on a per-site basis vs. urban sites). Rural sites with tenancy near 1.0x are not primary contributors to the group's reported 11% EBITDA growth through December 2025 and are lower priority for incremental investment as the company focuses on in-building solutions and managed services in high-density areas.

Operational and financial metrics associated with Dogs (Dec 2025 snapshot): uptime target impact, downtime, ROIC differential and EBITDA contribution.

• Group uptime target: 99.99% - affected negatively by higher downtime on legacy/rural towers (avg downtime 7-12 hrs/month).
• ROIC: Colocation / Build-to-suit ROIC materially higher than legacy services (estimated +5-8 percentage points).
• EBITDA contribution: Dogs segments combined contribute low single-digit percentage points to group EBITDA; not drivers of the reported 11% EBITDA growth.
• Discretionary CAPEX allocation (2026 plan): Priority redirected to hard-currency markets (e.g., Oman) and high-density urban solutions; Dogs receive minimal growth CAPEX except safety/compliance spend.

Corporate actions and treatment roadmap for Dogs as of late 2025:

• Maintain safety, regulatory and critical maintenance spend on all Dogs to protect brand and contractual obligations.
• Exit or monetize non-core managed services where strategic buyers or carve-out opportunities exist; target reduction of legacy services to <0.5% of group revenue by end-2026.
• Rationalize rural footprint: identify low-tenancy sites (<1.5x) for potential consolidation, power-sharing agreements or selective decommissioning.
• Reallocate CAPEX from South Africa and legacy assets to higher-margin, hard-currency markets and urban managed services with >2.2x tenancy potential.