Just Group plc (JUST.L): 5 FORCES Analysis [Dec-2025 Updated]

Explore how Just Group plc navigates the fierce economics of the retirement-income market through Michael Porter's Five Forces - from concentrated reinsurance and scarce illiquid asset suppliers to powerful trustees, savvy advisers, intense insurer rivalry, and growing substitutes like superfunds and drawdown; read on to see which forces strengthen its moat and which threaten its margins and growth.

Just Group plc (JUST.L) - Porter's Five Forces: Bargaining power of suppliers

Reinsurance capacity concentration dictates pricing leverage as Just Group manages its risk exposure through external partners. As of December 2025 the group reinsures approximately 60% of large-scale transactions under its DB Partner funded reinsurance proposition, including the £1.8 billion G4S transaction. This reliance on a small pool of global reinsurers, one of which is a subsidiary of Brookfield Wealth Solutions, means supplier pricing materially impacts new business economics: the group's reported new business margin was 7.5% in H1 2025. With total retirement income sales of £2.2 billion in H1 2025, a contraction in reinsurance capacity or a rise in reinsurance rates could directly compress the group's 1.1% new business strain target and reduce capital efficiency. To date the group has completed over £2.0 billion of funded reinsurance across multiple transactions.

Asset origination partnerships provide essential illiquid backing for annuity liabilities and influence long-term investment returns. By end-2024 Just Group increased illiquid asset origination by 40% to £2.4 billion, of which £1.0 billion was sourced via the expanded internal investments team and £1.4 billion via external originators (offshore wind, social infrastructure, etc.). The group has invested £118 million into offshore wind projects. These external originators wield bargaining power because access to high-yield, long-dated assets determines the spreads the group can secure over risk-free rates and thus its ability to price competitive annuity products.

• Illiquid asset origination (end-2024): £2.4bn (internal: £1.0bn; external: £1.4bn)
• Offshore wind investment: £118m
• Impact of credit spread tightening (H1 2025): underlying operating profit fell 23% to £192m
• Dependency: external-originated assets required to match long-duration liabilities

Specialized medical data providers influence the accuracy of the group's proprietary underwriting models for enhanced annuities. Just Group's leadership in the Guaranteed Income for Life (GIfL) market-sales of £1.0 billion in 2024-depends on granular mortality and medical inputs to price longevity risk more precisely than generalist competitors. Suppliers of such medical and longevity data are limited in number; their proprietary datasets and research directly affect the group's expected mortality improvement assumptions, pricing conservatism and capital requirements. This data dependency supports the group's capital-light model, which has helped customers release over £6.8 billion from properties via lifetime mortgages and contributes to sustained returns (reported return on equity of 15.3%).

• GIfL sales (2024): £1.0bn
• Lifetime mortgage property release to customers: £6.8bn
• Return on equity (latest reported): 15.3%
• Supplier concentration: few specialist medical/mortality data vendors

Technology and platform providers are critical to operational scalability and digital distribution. The Beacon platform services over 350 pension schemes and allows the group to quote on approximately 40% of UK bulk annuity transactions. Just Group recorded investment in development and strategic technology spend of £16m in H1 2025 while using these platforms to manage 129 transactions in a single year-an industry record for transaction volume. Dependence on third-party technology and platforms affects speed-to-market, unit costs and the group's cost-to-income ratio as it targets a ROE in excess of 12%.

• Key supplier risks: reinsurance rate moves, constrained reinsurance capacity, reduced origination pipeline for illiquid assets, loss of access to specialized medical data, vendor outages or platform underperformance.
• Mitigants: partial internal origination (£1.0bn), diversified transaction structuring, long-term supplier relationships (funded reinsurance deals), and continued investment in Beacon to reduce third-party dependence.

Just Group plc (JUST.L) - Porter's Five Forces: Bargaining power of customers

Pension scheme trustees exercise high bargaining power through competitive and rigorous selection processes for bulk annuities. In the 2024 record year Just Group completed 129 transactions, including its largest ever £1.8 billion buy-in for G4S, where the trustee selected Just after a multi-stage tender. Trustees represent approximately £1 trillion of remaining defined benefit (DB) liabilities in the UK and are supported by professional advisers, enabling them to shop around and extract better pricing and terms.

The competitive pressure from trustees materially affected new business margins, contributing to a reduction from 9.1% in 2023 to 7.5% in H1 2025. With 11 active insurers in the market as of late 2025, trustees can demand tighter pricing and more flexible terms, particularly for schemes under £100 million where Just Group is a market leader.

Retail annuity customers are increasingly price-sensitive and empowered by regulatory interventions to shop around for better rates. ABI data shows 69% of consumers switched providers when buying an annuity in 2024, up from 64% in 2023, reflecting FCA scrutiny of advice processes and stronger consumer mobility.

Just Group's retail sales reached £0.5 billion in H1 2025, but the retail annuity market is highly competitive: £75 of every £100 invested is placed with the most competitive bidder. The gap between the best and worst annuity rates can be up to 22% for a 75-year-old, creating strong incentives for customers to move away from incumbent providers and forcing Just to maintain aggressive pricing to defend market share in the Guaranteed Income for Life segment.

• Retail sales (Just Group): £0.5 billion - H1 2025
• Consumer switching rate: 69% - 2024 (up from 64% in 2023)
• Share placed with most competitive bidder: £75 per £100 invested - H1 2025
• Maximum annuity rate spread (example): 22% for a 75‑year‑old

Financial advisers and brokers act as powerful intermediaries, aggregating customer demand and intensifying price competition. In 2024, 36% of annuity purchasers took professional financial advice, up from 29% in 2023, further commoditising the product around the highest quote. Advisers and brokers routinely use market-monitoring tools and platforms - including Just's Beacon - to compare quotes and steer business to the most competitive suppliers.

This intermediary-led comparison shopping places downward pressure on Just Group's underlying operating EPS, which was 13.8 pence in H1 2025. The group's emphasis on five-star service is targeted at retaining broker favour and flow, acknowledging that advisers increasingly segment clients (e.g., 'spenders' vs 'savers'), which raises demand for guaranteed income but also increases the intensity of price comparison.

Institutional investors and large corporate sponsors demand high capital security and transparency before committing to de-risking transactions. Just Group maintains a Solvency II capital coverage ratio of 198% as of June 2025 to meet these expectations. Corporate sponsors focused on removing legacy DB obligations scrutinise an insurer's long-term viability, particularly given Just's £5.3 billion in retirement income sales written in 2024.

Just Group's financial signals - including a 20% dividend increase and 12% organic capital growth - are used to reassure large-scale clients about financial strength. Nevertheless, the necessity to hold high capital buffers constrains pricing flexibility when bidding for the significant pipeline of business: an estimated £50 billion of annual transfers projected over the next decade.

Just Group plc (JUST.L) - Porter's Five Forces: Competitive rivalry

Intense competition in the UK bulk purchase annuity (BPA) market is concentrated among 11 active insurers vying for a finite pool of pension liabilities. Just Group wrote over 40% of all transactions by number in 2024, while Legal & General and Rothesay accounted for approximately 18% and 22% of market volume respectively in 2024. The total UK BPA market reached a record £47.6 billion in 2024; however, H1 2025 saw Just Group's BPA sales decline 13% to £2.2 billion as competitors targeted smaller deal sizes. Rivalry is especially fierce in the sub-£100 million segment, where 9 out of 10 insurers now compete, materially challenging Just Group's traditional dominance and contributing to greater price compression and margin pressure.

Strategic acquisitions and balance-sheet consolidation have reshaped competitive dynamics, increasing the scale and capabilities of rivals. In July 2025 Pension Insurance Corporation was acquired by Athora for £5.7 billion; contemporaneously Just Group reached agreement to be acquired by Brookfield Wealth Solutions for £2.4 billion. The entry of new players such as Utmost and the re-entry of M&G expanded market capacity in 2024-2025, tightening pricing spreads and intensifying competition for both large and mid-market tenders.

• Athora acquisition of PIC: £5.7bn (July 2025)
• Brookfield agreed acquisition of Just Group: £2.4bn (2025)
• New entrants / re-entrants: Utmost, M&G (expanded capacity 2024-2025)
• Just Group Beacon platform: 61 deals completed in H1 2025 to sustain volume lead

Pricing discipline has come under pressure as insurers compete on internal rates of return and new business margins. Just Group reported a new business margin of 7.5% in H1 2025, below market expectations of 8.2%, citing an 'increasingly tight credit spread environment.' Standard Life and Aviva each wrote over £5 billion in BPA business in 2024, demonstrating multiple players have the capital firepower to write large mandates. Just Group's underlying operating profit fell 23% to £192 million in H1 2025; new business profit decreased 27% to £162 million in H1 2025, reflecting both volume and margin compression.

Product and process innovation is a critical battleground for differentiation as the retirement income market matures. Just Group has leaned into medically underwritten 'enhanced' annuities, leveraging long-standing expertise to offer higher rates to eligible buyers. The group increased illiquid asset origination to £2.4 billion to support tighter pricing. Nonetheless, rivals have accelerated adoption of streamlined underwriting and transaction processes for small and mid-sized schemes, and expanded internal investment teams to pursue similar yield advantages, reducing the persistence of abnormal profits for any single provider.

• Just Group illiquid asset origination: £2.4bn (support pricing / yield)
• Just Group Beacon deals: 61 completed in H1 2025 (volume focus)
• Rivals expanding internal investment capacity - increasing competition for yield
• Streamlined processes adopted across market - faster execution for <£100m deals

Collectively, high competitor concentration, balance-sheet consolidation, aggressive pricing on margins and returns, and rapid diffusion of product/process innovation create persistent, high-intensity rivalry. These dynamics reduce pricing power, compress new business margins, and force Just Group and peers to emphasize scale, capital efficiency (targeting ROE >12%), and diversification into capital-light, higher-margin retail products to protect profitability.

Just Group plc (JUST.L) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of substitutes

Defined Benefit pension schemes opting to 'run-on' rather than buy-out represents a significant alternative to Just Group's core bulk annuity product. The UK government's 2025 Pension Schemes Bill introduced provisions easing surplus extraction and clarification of sponsor protections, encouraging some schemes to retain liabilities with original sponsors. This legislative shift contributed to a quieter H1 2025 for the bulk annuity market as trustees paused to evaluate run-on versus de-risking. Market sensitivity is evidenced by Just Group's 13% decline in DB sales in early 2025 versus the comparable prior period, and industry projections that the previously forecasted £50 billion annual buyout/buy-in transfer market could contract materially if a sustained share of the c.£1.0 trillion DB liability stock chooses run-on or partial sponsor retention.

Drawdown products and flexible retirement options continue to compete strongly with guaranteed annuities for retail pension pots. Since pension freedoms in 2015, consumer preference shifted to flexibility; although annuity sales rose 24% to 89,600 in 2024 driven by higher interest rates, they remain a minority of retirements. Just Group's retail annuity sales of £1.0 billion in 2024 are therefore exposed if market returns, equity performance, or innovative drawdown products make retained-investment strategies preferable to a guaranteed product offering a new business margin of c.7.5%.

• 2024 annuities sold: 89,600 (+24% vs 2023)
• Just Group retail sales (2024): £1.0bn
• Typical reported new business margin (industry benchmark): ~7.5%
• Risk: improved investment performance → higher drawdown take-up → lower annuity volume

Longevity swaps provide pension schemes a targeted alternative to full insurance buy-out by hedging longevity risk while schemes retain asset control. The longevity swap market was quieter in 2024 at £5.8bn but industry forecasts pointed to a rebound toward >£15bn by end-2025 as trustee demand for partial hedging increased. Large schemes (e.g., BT Pension Scheme) frequently use swaps as a middle ground; this reduces the total addressable market for full buy-ins and buy-outs. Just Group has adapted by focusing selectively on shareholder-funded portions of transactions (noted as 40% of the G4S transaction), maintaining relevance when full risk transfer is not sought.

New 'megafunds' and superfunds are emerging consolidation routes that exist outside the traditional insurance regulatory regime, creating a non-insurance endgame for trustees. Superfunds such as Clara completed significant 2025 transactions (e.g., a £600m deal with Debenhams scheme), operating under a different capital and regulatory framework than insurers subject to Solvency II/UK equivalent rules. These entities can potentially offer alternative pricing and risk-sharing structures, pressuring insurer margins and deal volumes. Just Group's 198% solvency ratio and insurance-regime protections are differentiators trustees must weigh against potentially lower-cost but differently regulated superfund options. Just Group completed 129 transactions in 2024; the growth of superfunds presents a structural substitute that could erode volume unless insurers emphasize regulatory protection and member security.

• Quantified risks: reduced annual transfer market from £50bn baseline; DB sales decline observed (-13% early 2025 for Just).
• Mitigants for Just Group: highlight 198% solvency ratio, regulatory member protections, claims-paying capacity.
• Product/market responses: target shareholder-funded slices, offer flexible hedging solutions, compete on security vs price trade-offs.

Just Group plc (JUST.L) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of new entrants

High regulatory barriers to entry are maintained by stringent Solvency UK/PRA requirements and the need for significant capital. Just Group operates with a proforma capital coverage ratio of 204% as of year-end 2024, representing a massive financial hurdle for any new player. The PRA's oversight ensures that only well-capitalized firms can enter the bulk annuity space; despite a record market volume of £47.6 billion in 2024 there are only 11 active insurers. A new entrant would need to establish a multi-billion pound capital base and a sophisticated risk management framework to obtain trustee and regulator confidence. Just Group's reported 1.1% new business strain reflects years of optimisation of its capital model, a level of efficiency difficult for newcomers to replicate.

The requirement for deep technical expertise in longevity underwriting and asset‑liability matching acts as a strong deterrent. Just Group has completed over 500 transactions since 2012 and maintains a proprietary medical and mortality database that underpins pricing accuracy. In 2024 its Investments team originated £1.0 billion of illiquid assets internally, demonstrating integrated origination and ALM capability. Managing a £25 billion book of retirement savings and pricing complex enhanced annuities require decades of actuarial, quantitative and operational experience; absent that track record, trustee advisers are unlikely to accept counterparty risk from a newcomer.

• 500+ completed transactions since 2012 (historical underwriting dataset)
• £1.0bn internal illiquid asset origination (2024)
• £25bn scale required to run diversified retirement book
• 15.3% return on equity (Just Group, reflecting efficient capital use)

Established brand reputation and consistent service quality further raise entry costs. Just Group has won 20 consecutive 5‑star service awards, a metric heavily valued by financial advisers who control approximately 36% of the retail distribution market. Trustees and their advisers are highly risk‑averse, prioritising counterparties with long records of pension payment fulfilment. As a FTSE‑listed specialist with a market valuation around £2.4 billion, Just Group provides transparency, governance and public reporting that a fintech start‑up or boutique insurer would struggle to match. That brand equity contributed to the group completing 40% of all UK bulk annuity transactions in 2024.

Access to specialised distribution channels and proprietary technology platforms is difficult for new entrants to secure. Just Group's Beacon platform is used by over 350 schemes for price monitoring and creates a sticky adviser-trustee relationship. Convincing brokers and trustees to adopt a new platform requires both product credibility and integration with existing advice processes. Technology development costs are material-development expenditure rose to £16 million in H1 2025-while ongoing investment is needed to maintain competitive functionality. The group's integration into the Brookfield ecosystem in late 2025 provides additional global scale, distribution reach and balance sheet support, further raising the bar for independent startups.

Collectively these factors-regulatory capital intensity, deep specialist expertise, entrenched brand and service reputation, and proprietary distribution technology-create a high structural barrier to entry in Just Group's core markets. New entrants face multi‑dimensional costs: capital (multi‑billion), data and actuarial build‑out (years/decades), technological investment (£millions), and the challenge of overcoming adviser and trustee risk aversion. These realities compress the realistic pool of potential new competitors to well‑capitalised incumbents or strategic acquirers rather than bootstrap start‑ups.