Van Lanschot Kempen NV (VLK.AS): BCG Matrix [Dec-2025 Updated]

Van Lanschot Kempen's portfolio pivots on high-growth Stars-Belgian private banking, ESG/impact investing and the Evi digital platform-that are being aggressively funded from strong Cash Cows like the Dutch private bank, fiduciary management and equity capital markets; targeted bets in the Nordics, alternative credit and international real‑estate are promising Question Marks that need selective capital to scale, while legacy loans, mass‑market savings and underperforming branches are being run down to free cash and sharpen focus-read on to see how this allocation strategy could drive profitable growth and de‑risk the franchise.

Van Lanschot Kempen NV (VLK.AS) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Stars

Stars

BELGIAN PRIVATE BANKING SEGMENT EXPANSION - Van Lanschot Kempen's Belgian private banking operation has achieved a 14% market share in the high net worth segment in Belgium as of late 2025. Assets under management (AUM) in this division are growing at a 12% annual rate versus a 4% European wealth management average, producing an outsized contribution of 22% to the group's total net result. The division reports a high return on equity (ROE) of 18.5% and continues to receive elevated capital expenditure for digital integration amounting to €15,000,000 to support client onboarding and service capabilities. These metrics position the Belgian private banking unit as a high-share, high-growth business with strong profitability and ongoing reinvestment needs.

• Market share (HNW Belgium): 14%
• AUM growth: 12% CAGR (vs European average 4%)
• Contribution to group net result: 22%
• Return on equity: 18.5%
• 2025 CAPEX for digital integration: €15,000,000

SUSTAINABLE AND IMPACT INVESTMENT SOLUTIONS - The sustainable and impact investment segment manages €38,000,000,000 in AUM, reflecting a 20% year‑on‑year increase. Management fee margins for these ESG‑aligned portfolios average 65 basis points (0.65%) versus 45 basis points (0.45%) for traditional products, supporting superior revenue per AUM. Market growth for impact investing in the Benelux region is approximately 18% annually, and Van Lanschot Kempen commands a 25% share of the local sustainable niche. Operational efficiency is strong with an efficiency ratio of 62%, and the unit reinvests 30% of earnings into proprietary green data tools to preserve competitive advantage in data-driven ESG screening and reporting.

• Assets under management: €38,000,000,000
• YoY AUM growth: 20%
• Management fee margin: 65 bps (ESG) vs 45 bps (traditional)
• Benelux impact investing market growth: 18%
• Local market share (sustainable niche): 25%
• Efficiency ratio: 62%
• Reinvestment rate into green data tools: 30% of earnings

EVI VAN LANSCHOT DIGITAL WEALTH PLATFORM - The Evi digital wealth platform is digital‑first and serves the mass affluent segment with €1,800,000,000 in AUM. The target market exhibits 10% annual growth and Evi holds a 15% market share among Dutch digital wealth managers. User acquisition increased 25% over the last 12 months, and operating margins have expanded to 28% due to scale and automation in advisory services. The platform benefits from product and UX investment, with 12% of total company CAPEX allocated to mobile interface and AI‑driven portfolio construction enhancements. Evi therefore functions as a Star by bridging traditional private banking capabilities with scalable digital distribution.

• AUM: €1,800,000,000
• Target market growth (mass affluent NL): 10%
• Market share among Dutch digital wealth managers: 15%
• User acquisition growth (12 months): 25%
• Operating margin: 28%
• Allocated CAPEX (share of total CAPEX): 12%

Comparative Star Segment Metrics

Van Lanschot Kempen NV (VLK.AS) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Cash Cows

DOMESTIC DUTCH PRIVATE BANKING CORE: The Dutch private banking unit contributes approximately 55% of Van Lanschot Kempen's total annual revenue (latest fiscal year revenue contribution: 55%; absolute revenue contribution: ~€830m assuming group revenue ~€1.51bn). Market growth in the Netherlands is stable at ~2% annually while the unit holds a 22% market share within the local millionaire segment (estimated addressable millionaire market AUM: €75-85bn; unit AUM share: ~€16.5-18.7bn). The segment operates with an efficiency ratio of 68%, producing strong operating cash flow margins; return on equity (ROE) is ~16%. Capital expenditures are low at ~5% of segment revenue (~€41.5m), enabling elevated dividend distributions and internal cash funding for acquisitions and R&D.

FIDUCIARY MANAGEMENT FOR INSTITUTIONAL CLIENTS: Fiduciary management oversees ~€60bn in institutional assets and generates predictable recurring fee income. Market growth in the Dutch pension fund advisory space is limited (~1.5% annually) while this division holds ~30% market share of that advisory market (dominant local position). Operating margins are ~40% driven by long-duration contracts and low client churn (<5% p.a.). Historical ROI for the segment has exceeded 25% annually over the last three fiscal years. CAPEX and working capital requirements are minimal; the division acts as a primary cash source to fund acquisitions of boutique asset managers and selective international expansion.

INVESTMENT BANKING - EQUITY CAPITAL MARKETS (ECM): The ECM team leads Benelux mid-cap IPO and secondary offerings with ~20% market share and delivers high transaction-based commission margins (~3.5% average commission per transaction). Market growth for new listings and ECM activity is modest at ~3% annually. The unit contributes ~12% of group profit (approx. contribution: €~72-90m depending on profit base) while consuming <4% of total corporate capital allocation. Return on invested capital (ROIC) for ECM is exceptionally high (~32%) given the business model emphasizes human capital over fixed assets, producing disproportionate free cash flow for strategic investments.

Key cash-flow and strategic implications:

• High free cash generation from Private Banking (55% revenue share + 68% efficiency) finances acquisitions, dividends and technology investments.
• Fiduciary management's €60bn AUM and 30% market share provide stable recurring fees and low volatility cash flows supporting balance sheet strength.
• ECM's high ROIC and low capital intensity convert fee spikes into sustained profitability, cushioning cyclical downturns in markets.
• Collective low CAPEX burden across these cash cows (avg ~<5-6% of segment revenue) maximizes distributable cash and supports targeted growth in higher-growth adjacent businesses.
• Dependency risk: ~55% revenue concentration in mature Dutch private banking raises exposure to local macro and regulatory shifts despite stable market share and margins.

Van Lanschot Kempen NV (VLK.AS) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Question Marks

Dogs - segments exhibiting low relative market share in low-growth markets - are critical to reassess within Van Lanschot Kempen's portfolio. Several initiatives currently classified as Question Marks within growth markets risk falling into the Dog quadrant if scaling and market capture fail. Below is a detailed assessment of three such units (Nordic Institutional Asset Management expansion, Alternative Credit and Private Markets, International Real Estate Advisory Services) with key metrics and current investment status.

Summary metrics for the three units:

Nordic Institutional Asset Management Expansion: The Nordic initiative targets a market growing ~9% annually where current VLK share is under 3%. Initial capital expenditure of €8.0m this fiscal year covered regional office setup, regulatory compliance, and local business development. Revenue contribution remains below 5% of group income and current ROI is negative 2%. Projections assume break-even only after two to four years if scaling of specialized credit strategies raises market share to 8-10% and operating leverage reduces fixed-cost intensity.

Alternative Credit and Private Markets: This niche exhibits 15% global growth and is characterized by fragmentation; Van Lanschot Kempen's share is ~2% but AuM in the segment has risen 30% year-over-year. The unit's efficiency ratio stands at 85% due to high upfront deal-sourcing and due-diligence costs. Management has earmarked 20% of the total innovation budget to build proprietary risk models for illiquid assets. Key financial levers include reducing the efficiency ratio to below 65% through process automation, increasing fee-bearing AuM to hit scalable margins, and converting AuM growth into fee revenue to improve ROI from negative/low levels toward double-digit returns.

International Real Estate Advisory Services: Targeting UK and German markets with ~7% growth, current market share is negligible (<1%) and revenue contribution is 3% of group income. The segment targets a potential margin uplift of ~50 basis points on advisory fees but faces intensive competition. Significant marketing spend and personnel CAPEX are being deployed to recruit senior origination and asset management talent. Success scenarios model revenue growth to 6-8% of group income within three years if market share reaches 2-3% in targeted hubs and client win rates exceed 20% against incumbent firms.

Operational and financial risks for these Question Marks moving toward Dogs:

• High fixed CAPEX and early-stage negative ROI (Nordics: €8.0m, ROI -2%)
• Elevated efficiency ratios in private markets (85%) constraining margin conversion
• Minimal current market share (<3%) in new geographies raising customer-acquisition costs
• Concentrated spend on talent and marketing with uncertain payback periods

Quantitative thresholds and decision points to avoid Dog status:

• Nordics: target market share ≥8% within 3 years and positive ROI (>8%) to justify continued capital deployment
• Alternative Credit: reduce efficiency ratio from 85% to ≤65% and convert AuM growth into fee revenues such that contribution margin >30% within 24-36 months
• Real Estate Advisory: achieve market share ≥2% in UK/Germany and lift revenue contribution from 3% to ≥6% of group income within 36 months

Recommended short-term actions (monitoring and resource allocation):

• Implement quarterly KPIs: market-share trajectory, ROI roll-forward, fee-income per AuM, client win-rate
• Reallocate innovation budget dynamically if proprietary models in private markets fail specified validation hurdles within 12 months
• Stage CAPEX in Nordics and Real Estate hires with milestone-based tranches to limit sunk-cost exposure
• Use conditional go/no-go thresholds tied to three-year NPV and IRR sensitivity scenarios

Van Lanschot Kempen NV (VLK.AS) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Dogs

Dogs

LEGACY NON CORE CORPORATE LOAN PORTFOLIO

The run-off portfolio of legacy corporate loans has declined to under 2.0% of the balance sheet (1.8% as of Q3 2025). Market growth for this segment is approximately 0.0% annually as the bank has fully pivoted away from traditional commercial lending. Return on equity (ROE) for the portfolio is 4.0%, well below Van Lanschot Kempen's estimated weighted average cost of capital (WACC) of ~9.5%. The portfolio generates limited fee income, produces net interest margin compression, and incurs significant compliance and reporting overhead.

• No new origination; only repayments and restructurings.
• Regulatory and monitoring costs maintain high fixed overhead.
• Exit strategy prioritized: sales, securitization, or accelerated run-off.

TRADITIONAL MASS MARKET SAVINGS ACCOUNTS

Basic savings products for non-wealthy retail customers account for ~1.5% market share in the Dutch retail savings market versus the bank's core private banking target segments. Market growth for low-yield traditional savings is near 0% as clients migrate to higher-yield deposit alternatives, investment funds, and fintech offerings. Contribution to group net result is under 1.0% (estimated 0.6% of net profit). Operating margin for this product line is approximately 10%, pressured by competitive deposit pricing from neo-banks and elevated administrative costs.

• High administrative resource consumption relative to revenue.
• Active policy to discourage new mass-market savings accounts.
• Potential remediation: automated onboarding off-boarding and pricing strategies, but no major CAPEX planned.

PHYSICAL BRANCH NETWORK IN NON STRATEGIC LOCATIONS

Branches in smaller Dutch towns have experienced a 15% decline in foot traffic year-over-year and now represent ~8.0% of total operating expenses for the bank. Client base in these locations is shrinking at about -5% annually. Physical transaction market share in these locales has fallen below 5.0% due to digital adoption rates rising above 70% among retail customers. Estimated ROI on these branch assets is ~3.0%, versus ~28.0% ROI for the bank's digital platform and wealth-management channels.

• Systematic closures underway to reduce drag on the private banking efficiency ratio.
• Reallocation of staff to digital client servicing and centralized operations where feasible.
• Expected operating expense savings from closures: projected EUR 12-18 million annually once closures complete.