Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (VLRS): PESTLE Analysis [Nov-2025 Updated]

You're holding Volaris (VLRS) and wondering if its strong capacity growth-projected near 15% for 2025-will defintely hit the bottom line. Honestly, the answer doesn't lie in their fleet size alone. The core truth is that Volaris is structurally positioned to win the resilient VFR (Visiting Friends and Relatives) and leisure market, but its near-term profitability is a hostage to two external forces: the stability of the Mexican peso and the sustained US FAA Category 1 status. We need to map these Political, Economic, Sociological, Technological, Legal, and Environmental (PESTLE) factors, because they are the true determinants of whether that 15% growth translates into shareholder value.

Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (VLRS) - PESTLE Analysis: Political factors

Sustained US FAA Category 1 status is crucial for US route expansion.

The biggest political factor for Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (Volaris) is Mexico's sustained Category 1 safety rating from the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Honestly, this is the foundation for your growth strategy. Mexico regained this highest rating in September 2023 after a two-year downgrade to Category 2.

Regaining Category 1 immediately unlocked Volaris's ability to launch new routes and add aircraft to its US operations, which is a massive opportunity for a low-cost carrier focused on the Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR) market. The proof is in the numbers: Volaris announced an expansion of 30 new routes in the first half of 2025, with a significant portion targeting key US cities like Dallas/Fort Worth, Houston, Miami, and Los Angeles. If that Category 1 status were to slip again, all new US route expansion would halt immediately, and the financial losses would be significant, as the Mexican aviation industry lost an estimated over US$1 billion during the last Category 2 period.

Bilateral air service agreements between Mexico and the US.

While the FAA rating is stable, the bilateral air service agreement with the US is a major near-term risk. The US Department of Transportation (DOT) has accused Mexico of not complying with the 2015 U.S.-Mexico Air Transport Agreement since 2022, primarily due to slot rescissions and the forced relocation of all-cargo carriers from Mexico City International Airport (MEX).

The DOT took concrete, punitive actions in July and October 2025 that directly affect the competitive landscape. This is a serious concern, even if Volaris is not the primary target of the Delta/Aeromexico joint venture (JV) antitrust immunity (ATI) withdrawal proposal. The US government has already suspended two current routes and canceled 11 scheduled routes from Mexican airlines to the US, effective immediately in October 2025.

Here's the quick math on the regulatory burden for all Mexican carriers now:

• Mexican airlines must file schedules with the DOT for all US operations 30 days in advance.
• Prior DOT approval is now required for operating any large passenger or cargo charter flights to or from the US.
• The US has explicitly blocked new route or frequency requests from the Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA) and MEX to the US, which limits Volaris's flexibility.

This increased regulatory scrutiny and the threat of further action, like the potential withdrawal of ATI for the Delta/Aeromexico JV, could fundamentally shift market dynamics, possibly giving Volaris a temporary competitive edge if its rivals are tied up in litigation, but it also creates a less predictable operating environment overall.

Government stability in Mexico affects long-term investment climate.

The political stability in Mexico presents a complex picture for long-term investment. On one hand, the investment climate has shown resilience, with foreign direct investment (FDI) hitting an all-time high. The US remains Mexico's top source of FDI, with a stock of USD 283.8 billion in 2023. The government's proposed budget for 2025 also aims to narrow the fiscal deficit from 5.9% of GDP in 2024 to 3.9% in 2025, which is a positive sign for fiscal health.

But to be fair, there are significant political risks. Analysts in 2025 are concerned about the consolidation of power within the ruling coalition, which could lead to a more volatile regulatory environment and diminished legal certainty for businesses. The sweeping judicial reform, including the election of half the federal judges, risks politicizing the judiciary, which is a major red flag for investors. What this estimate hides is that a credit rating downgrade, a real danger if institutions are weakened, would increase the cost of capital for all Mexican companies, including Volaris, making fleet financing more expensive.

Geopolitical tensions impacting global tourism and travel confidence.

Geopolitical tensions, particularly those originating in the US, are creating a significant tailwind for Mexican tourism, which directly benefits Volaris. The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) forecasts a contraction in US tourism in 2025, driven by tighter visa regulations, a less welcoming political climate, and a stronger US dollar. The US tourism industry is projected to lose approximately $12.5 billion in international visitor spending in 2025.

Mexico is the clear alternative. The WTTC projects that travel and tourism will contribute a record $281 billion to Mexico's GDP in 2025, benefiting from its stable political environment and proximity to the US. Volaris is perfectly positioned to capture this inbound traffic. Still, the US political climate and immigration policies are a double-edged sword; Volaris's international load factor was lower at 78% in the first half of 2025, compared to its domestic load factor of 88%, partly due to the impact of US immigration policy on VFR traffic. The political rhetoric and policies in the US defintely impact the confidence of the core VFR customer base.

The key dynamic for Volaris is the shift of non-US international tourism away from the US and to Mexico, plus the resilience of the VFR market despite US policy headwinds.

Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (VLRS) - PESTLE Analysis: Economic factors

MXN/USD exchange rate volatility directly impacts US dollar-denominated costs (fuel, lease).

The volatility of the Mexican Peso (MXN) against the US Dollar (USD) is a critical economic risk for Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (VLRS), as a significant portion of its operating expenses are denominated in USD. Specifically, approximately 57% of the company's costs, including aircraft leases, maintenance, and fuel purchases, are dollar-denominated.

In the first half of 2025, the Mexican peso's depreciation against the US dollar put substantial pressure on revenue, which is largely MXN-based. For instance, the Q1 2025 report cited a decline in Total Revenue per Available Seat Mile (TRASM) partly due to a 20% peso depreciation. However, the peso has shown net strength later in the year, trading around MXN 18.3-18.6 per USD in mid-October, a notable recovery from the MXN 20.23 per USD seen at the start of 2025. This appreciation helps mitigate the cost pressure on dollar-denominated expenses, but it still creates significant revenue translation risk.

Here's the quick math: if the average exchange rate for the full year is closer to the Q3 average of Ps. 18.65 per U.S. dollar, it's a much better scenario for cost control than the company's initial full-year 2025 guidance, which was based on an average USD/MXN rate of Ps. 21.00 to 21.20.

High jet fuel prices increase operating costs, despite hedging strategies.

Jet fuel remains the single largest variable cost for any airline, and VLRS is no exception. Even with a fuel-efficient fleet, persistent price volatility directly impacts Cost per Available Seat Mile (CASM). While VLRS employs hedging strategies, the average economic fuel cost in 2025 has been a major factor in their overall operating expenses.

The average economic fuel cost for Q3 2025 was $2.61 per gallon, a slight 1% decrease year-over-year. In Q2 2025, the average economic fuel cost was even lower at $2.46 per gallon, representing a 14% decrease compared to the same period in 2024. Still, these real-world costs are higher than the company's initial full-year 2025 guidance for the average U.S. Gulf Coast jet fuel price, which was set at a range of $2.15 to $2.25 per gallon. This difference means their cost base is defintely running hotter than planned, straining margins.

The table below summarizes the key cost metrics for 2025, showing the ongoing pressure on non-fuel costs (CASM ex-fuel) due to factors like engine maintenance issues:

Strong demand for ultra-low-cost carriers (ULCC) due to inflation and budget consciousness.

Economic uncertainty and persistent inflation in Mexico are driving strong demand for ultra-low-cost carriers (ULCC) like VLRS. As consumer budgets tighten, the value proposition of low base fares becomes more compelling, especially for the Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR) segment, which is a core market for VLRS.

The company continues to see growth in passenger volume, which confirms this budget-conscious trend. For instance, in Q2 2025, the total number of booked passengers increased to 7.5 million, a 6.3% rise year-over-year. In Q3 2025, booked passengers totaled 7.9 million, a 3.2% increase. The domestic VFR market has shown particular resilience, achieving a load factor of 89% in Q1 2025.

This budget shift creates a significant growth opportunity for VLRS, particularly in converting bus travelers to air passengers. The estimated bus-to-air conversion opportunity is valued at approximately $1.5 billion, representing a major long-term structural tailwind.

Mexican GDP growth projections influence domestic travel spending.

While the overall Mexican GDP growth outlook for 2025 is subdued, the performance of the tourism sector, which directly influences domestic travel spending, is a key positive for VLRS. General economic forecasts for Mexico's GDP growth in 2025 are low, with estimates ranging from a contraction of (-)0.4% to modest growth of +0.5%. Monex, for example, estimates a full-year expansion of only 0.36%.

However, the travel and tourism sector is outpacing the broader economy. The World Travel & Tourism Council (WTTC) projects that the tourism industry will contribute an unprecedented $281 billion to the national GDP in 2025, making up 15.1% of the country's total economic output.

More directly relevant to VLRS's domestic routes is the projected spending by Mexican travelers:

• Domestic tourism spending is estimated to reach $209.9 billion in 2025.
• This represents a substantial 9.9% increase compared to previous highs.

Even with a slower overall GDP, the willingness of the domestic population to spend on travel-especially the VFR segment-is strong, providing a buffer against the macroeconomic slowdown.

Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (VLRS) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Strong VFR traffic drives core demand; this is a defintely resilient segment.

The core of Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación's (Volaris) business model remains the Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR) segment. Honestly, this traffic is the bedrock of their stability. Even with geopolitical tensions creating headwinds on international routes, the VFR segment has shown remarkable resilience, maintaining steady levels across both domestic and international markets in 2025.

Volaris CEO Enrique Beltranena noted that approximately 40% of the airline's total passengers still fall into the VFR category, even as the company works to diversify its customer mix. This is a crucial social factor because VFR travelers are less price-sensitive than pure leisure travelers during peak holiday periods and are less impacted by short-term economic dips than business travelers. It's a stable demand source.

Growing middle class in Mexico increases first-time flyer market penetration.

The expansion of Mexico's middle class is a massive, long-term opportunity for Volaris. As more citizens cross the disposable income threshold, they move from bus travel to air travel-often for the first time. The total Mexican aviation market size is projected to reach $16.80 Billion by 2033, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8.20% from 2025, with rising middle-class demand as a primary driver.

Volaris' ultra-low-cost carrier (ULCC) model is perfectly positioned to capture this demographic. Here's the quick math: Volaris estimates the addressable market for switching bus passengers to air travel is around 72 million travelers in the medium term, and buses are the only competition on 55% of their routes. This shift is why domestic passenger traffic is booming.

• Domestic flights carried nearly 14.8 million passengers in Q1 2025.
• Volaris and VivaAerobus transported over 10.7 million of those Q1 2025 domestic travelers.
• This Q1 2025 domestic traffic figure was up 5.2% over the same period in 2024.

Consumer preference for digital booking and self-service options.

Modern travelers, especially the younger, emerging middle class, demand a digital-first experience. Volaris has been investing in digital innovation and self-service options, which is a necessity, not a luxury, in 2025. This preference translates directly into booking behavior.

We are seeing a consistent trend of shorter booking windows, which means passengers are purchasing tickets much closer to the departure date. This short-term booking pattern, while challenging for capacity planning, lets Volaris' commercial team aggressively maximize unit revenue (TRASM, or Total Revenue per Available Seat Mile) by prioritizing close-in fares over simply filling every seat. The ability to manage this volatile, digital-driven demand is a key operational strength.

Shifting travel habits favor short-haul, point-to-point leisure routes.

Travel habits are clearly favoring short-haul, point-to-point routes, particularly within the domestic leisure market. This is a direct benefit for a ULCC like Volaris, which avoids the complexity and cost of hub-and-spoke operations. The airline is actively expanding its domestic footprint to capitalize on this.

For example, Volaris has significantly increased capacity in secondary cities, with capacity in Morelia rising by 45% in the past year, adding new routes to leisure destinations like Puerto Vallarta and Ixtapa/Zihuatanejo. The domestic market is showing strong momentum, as evidenced by the year-to-date (YTD) May 2025 traffic results.

What this estimate hides is that while the load factor dipped due to a tactical capacity increase, the domestic RPMs (demand) still grew by a solid 6.6% YTD through May 2025, which confirms the strength of the domestic, short-haul market.

Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (VLRS) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Fleet modernization with Airbus A320neo family improves fuel efficiency by 15-20%.

The core of Volaris's technological strategy is its aggressive fleet modernization, which directly supports the ultra-low-cost carrier (ULCC) model by attacking the largest variable cost: fuel. As of late October 2025, approximately two-thirds of the airline's 152-aircraft fleet is comprised of the newer, more efficient Airbus A320neo and A321neo jets, with a plan to be nearly 100% Neo by 2026.

The transition to the A320neo family, equipped with Pratt & Whitney GTF engines, is projected to reduce fuel consumption by an estimated 15% to 20% compared to previous generation aircraft. This efficiency gain is critical, especially since fuel is a major expense. For instance, the airline's average economic fuel cost was $2.46 per gallon in the second quarter of 2025, a 14.0% decline year-over-year, making the fleet's inherent efficiency a powerful competitive advantage. What this estimate hides, however, is the significant operational risk posed by the ongoing Pratt & Whitney engine inspections, which have forced the grounding of dozens of Neo-family jets, impacting capacity growth.

Increased investment in digital platforms for direct sales and ancillary revenue.

Volaris has defintely solidified its position by prioritizing digital platforms to drive non-ticket revenue, a hallmark of a successful ULCC. This focus on ancillary revenue-the money earned from services beyond the base fare-is a direct result of technological investment in the booking engine, mobile app, and check-in process.

The numbers show this strategy working: in the second quarter of 2025, ancillary revenue per passenger reached $54, reflecting a 1.9% increase year-over-year. This revenue stream is a massive component of the business, accounting for 58.9% of the total operating revenues of $693 million reported for Q2 2025. The high percentage of ancillary revenue provides a crucial buffer against fluctuations in base fares, maintaining profitability even when unit revenues (TRASM) fall, as they did by 12.2% in Q2 2025.

Here's the quick math on the revenue split for Q2 2025:

Use of predictive maintenance analytics to reduce unexpected downtime.

While specific, public figures on downtime reduction for Volaris are not available, the company's operational model is fundamentally dependent on high aircraft utilization, which necessitates a sophisticated predictive maintenance (PdM) program. PdM uses sensor data, machine learning, and artificial intelligence to forecast potential component failures, allowing maintenance to be scheduled proactively during planned downtime instead of reactively after a breakdown.

This technology is critical to mitigating the impact of external factors, such as the mandated inspections of the Pratt & Whitney GTF engines, which have grounded an average of 32-33 aircraft for the airline in 2025. The application of predictive analytics helps the maintenance team manage the remaining fleet more efficiently, reducing the risk of an Aircraft on Ground (AOG) incident and turning unscheduled maintenance into a planned, less costly event. Without this proactive approach, the cost of emergency repairs and expedited parts would significantly erode the ULCC's narrow cost advantage, increasing the Cost per Available Seat Mile excluding fuel (CASM ex fuel), which was already up 6.7% to 5.69 cents in Q2 2025.

Implementation of new air traffic management systems for operational efficiency.

The drive for operational efficiency is also supported by the adoption of advanced air traffic management (ATM) technologies and procedures, such as Performance Based Navigation (PBN) and optimized flight planning software. These systems allow for more direct flight paths and optimized climb/descent profiles, which saves fuel and time. The goal is to maximize the Available Seat Miles (ASMs) generated per aircraft.

The overall result of these combined technological and operational efforts is visible in their capacity planning. Volaris is guiding for an ASM growth of around 7% year-over-year for the full year 2025, a clear indicator of their ability to scale operations efficiently despite external challenges. Furthermore, the ongoing national effort in Mexico to upgrade 62 airports with a US$7.5 billion investment will create a better technological environment for all carriers, enabling Volaris to further optimize its flight operations and ground handling processes for faster turnarounds, a key metric for a low-cost carrier.

• Maximize ASM growth of 7% for full year 2025.
• Utilize PBN for optimized routing and fuel burn.
• Benefit from Mexico's US$7.5 billion airport technology upgrade.

Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (VLRS) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

The legal and regulatory environment for Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (Volaris) in 2025 presents a mix of significant opportunities from a restored international status and acute operational risks from domestic labor and capacity rules. You need to focus on compliance costs and the immediate impact of US regulatory actions on your most profitable routes.

Compliance with new Mexican labor laws and union agreements.

Volaris faces rising compliance costs due to a wave of pro-labor reforms in Mexico, which directly impacts the ultra-low-cost carrier (ULCC) model's core cost structure. The most immediate impact is from the mandated minimum wage increase, which rose by 12% on January 1, 2025, and the new 'Ley Silla' (Chair Law), which became enforceable on June 17, 2025. While the Chair Law primarily targets service industries, Volaris must ensure compliance for all ground and airport staff, adding new capital expenditure for seating and internal regulation updates by the December 14, 2025, deadline.

Here's the quick math: non-compliance with new labor obligations can trigger fines ranging from 250 to 2,500 times the daily value of the Unit of Measurement and Update (UMA), which is MXN $113.14 in 2025. You defintely need to keep internal labor relations smooth, especially after the complete overhaul of the Collective Bargaining Agreement (CBA) in 2023, which saw internal worker dissatisfaction despite union approval.

The labor landscape remains volatile, with potential new legislation on the table for 2025, including a reduction of the work week and working hours, which would further inflate crew costs and strain scheduling flexibility.

Adherence to US FAA and Mexican civil aviation (AFAC) safety regulations.

Mexico's September 2023 reinstatement to the US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Category 1 safety rating is a foundational legal win for Volaris, allowing the expansion of its high-margin US-Mexico transborder routes. However, maintaining this status requires strict adherence to the Mexican Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC) regulations, which are under intense international scrutiny.

The risk here is systemic, not just company-specific. AFAC's own data, prior to the halt of public disclosure in May 2025, showed a 31% increase in air traffic incidents between January and July 2025 compared to the previous year, highlighting persistent systemic deficiencies in air traffic control and infrastructure. Volaris must invest heavily in its own operational safety management system (SMS) and crew training to mitigate the risks arising from the national airspace environment. Volaris already revised its full-year 2025 capacity growth forecast down to 7% (from an initial 13%), partly due to external regulatory uncertainty impacting US-Mexico operations.

Consumer protection laws regarding flight delays and cancellations.

Volaris operates under stringent Mexican consumer protection laws enforced by the Federal Consumer Protection Agency (PROFECO), which is actively monitoring the airline sector. Volaris is one of the most frequently cited airlines in passenger complaints, particularly during peak travel periods like the summer of 2025, where PROFECO recovered over MXN $260,000 (US$14,000) for airline-related issues in one operation alone.

The core legal compensation framework is a direct financial risk:

• Delays/Cancellations (Airline-Attributable): Compensation must be at least 25% of the ticket price for delays over four hours or overbooking.
• Overbooking: A bill submitted in May 2025 proposes to raise the minimum compensation for denied boarding due to overbooking from 25% to 35% of the ticket price, plus mandating payment within 15 business days.
• US DOT Fines: This risk extends to US operations; for example, the US Department of Transportation (DOT) fined Volaris $300,000 in May 2024 for violating tarmac delay rules, setting a clear precedent for high-cost penalties.

The cost of non-compliance is immediate and material, impacting both the P&L and brand reputation. You have to treat compensation payouts as a predictable operating expense.

Airport slot allocation rules, especially at congested airports like AICM.

The most critical and volatile legal factor for Volaris in late 2025 is the management of slots (takeoff and landing times) at the saturated Aeropuerto Internacional de la Ciudad de México (AICM). The Mexican government's push to reduce congestion led to a cap reduction, which was later slightly raised to 44 operations per hour in May 2025 for the summer and winter seasons, down from the previous 61.

The new slot rules, effective October 15, 2025, mandate that airlines must operate at least 80% of their assigned slots to maintain historical priority for the next season. Critically, delays over 15 minutes that are the airline's fault can be counted against this 80% utilization rate, creating a direct link between operational performance and asset retention.

The biggest near-term legal shock came in October/November 2025 when the US DOT revoked approval for 13 routes operated by Mexican carriers, including Volaris's route from AICM to Newark, New Jersey. This action, citing violations of the 2015 Air Transport Agreement, immediately forces a network reshuffle and caused Volaris shares to fall 4.45% on the news. This regulatory crossfire between the US and Mexican governments over slot and cargo rules at AICM remains a top-tier threat to Volaris's international network stability.

Finance: draft a contingency plan for the loss of an additional 5% of AICM slots by end of Q4 2025.

Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (VLRS) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Pressure to adopt Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) to meet long-term emission goals

The push for Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is the single biggest environmental challenge and opportunity for Volaris. The industry is aiming for the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Long-term Global Aspirational Goal (LTAG) of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050, and SAF is the primary lever to get there. To be fair, SAF is an expensive and scarce resource right now; most airlines globally are still using less than 1% of it in 2025.

Volaris is taking a clear, proactive step to secure its long-term supply. In June 2025, the company and Airbus signed a Letter of Intent (LoI) to support a feasibility study for SAF production in Mexico, which is a big deal because it marks the first time an airline in the Americas has actively invested in the ICAO's Voluntary Environment Fund. Plus, Volaris has already secured an investment in the CleanJoule start-up, guaranteeing access to 30 million gallons of SAF for future operations. This is defintely a necessary move, as SAF can cut CO2 emissions by up to 80% over its lifecycle compared to conventional jet fuel. The near-term risk remains the high cost and low availability of SAF, but this early investment positions Volaris well for when the market scales.

Noise and emission regulations at international airports

As an airline operating extensive routes into the US, Volaris is subject to stringent international and local airport regulations on noise and emissions. The fleet's noise profile is a critical factor for slot access at major hubs like Los Angeles International Airport (LAX) or New York's JFK. The Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA) is also in effect, requiring airlines to offset any increase in CO2 emissions above 2019 levels for international flights.

The European Union's (EU) 'Fit for 55' package is setting the pace, with a mandate that starting in 2025, fuel uplift at EU airports must contain at least 2% SAF. While Volaris has limited EU exposure, these mandates set a precedent that will eventually trickle down to US and Mexican policy. The single most effective countermeasure Volaris has against these regulations is its modern fleet, which reduces the sound footprint by a significant 75% versus previous-generation aircraft.

Public scrutiny over carbon footprint; Volaris needs a clear sustainability report

Public and investor scrutiny over carbon footprint is rising, making transparent reporting an operational necessity, not just a marketing exercise. Volaris has committed to IATA's Fly Net Zero initiative, pledging to achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. This commitment is backed by a specific, measurable goal: reducing their Scope 1 aircraft CO2 emissions intensity by 35.42% (grams of CO2 per revenue passenger kilometer) by 2030, using a 2015 baseline.

The company was named Latin America's Top Green Airline for 2025, which is a strong reputational asset. However, the industry is also grappling with increased concern about greenwashing; in 2025, only 5% of airlines were openly promoting their sustainability progress. Volaris must continue to ground its claims in verifiable metrics. Its voluntary carbon offset program, #CielitoLimpio, is a tangible customer-facing initiative, where passengers offset 1,121 metric tons of CO2 in 2023.

Fleet renewal is the primary lever for immediate CO2 reduction

Fleet renewal is the most immediate and cost-effective way for Volaris to reduce emissions and fuel burn. Here's the quick math: the newer Airbus NEO (New Engine Option) aircraft are approximately 15% more fuel-efficient than their predecessors. This translates directly into a reduction of about 5,000 tons of CO2 emissions per year per aircraft.

Volaris has one of the youngest and most efficient fleets in the Americas, and the transition to NEOs is well underway as of 2025. This strategy is critical, especially with the phasing out of older, less-efficient models. For instance, the company phased out the last of its older A319s in October 2025. The long-term plan is aggressive, but it is contingent on manufacturer delivery schedules, which is a key risk.

What this estimate hides is the ongoing operational headache from the Pratt & Whitney GTF engine inspections, which has grounded dozens of NEO aircraft on a rolling basis since 2023. This grounding temporarily stalls the environmental benefits of the fleet renewal and forces the company to manage capacity carefully.