John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (WLYB): 5 FORCES Analysis [Nov-2025 Updated]

You're looking at John Wiley & Sons, Inc. not just as a publisher, but as a complex business fighting on five distinct fronts as of late 2025. Honestly, the landscape is tough: while the company posted a solid Adjusted EBITDA of $397.7 million in FY2025, that performance is being squeezed by powerful library consortia controlling 48% of Adjusted Revenue and the looming threat of Open Access and Generative AI substitutes. We need to map this out clearly, because understanding where suppliers like star authors hold sway, and where new digital entrants might slip in, is key to valuing John Wiley & Sons, Inc. going forward. Let's break down the five forces to see exactly where the pressure points are.

John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (WLYB) - Porter's Five Forces: Bargaining power of suppliers

You're assessing John Wiley & Sons, Inc.'s supplier power, and honestly, it's a mixed bag. The power dynamic really splits between the creators of unique content-the authors and editors-and the providers of the infrastructure, like printing houses and tech platforms. For the core product, intellectual property, the suppliers still hold significant sway, but the company's digital pivot is definitely eroding the power of traditional vendors.

Star authors and journal editors hold high power due to unique, high-demand intellectual property. It's a classic dependency issue in publishing. As of the fiscal year ending April 30, 2025, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. still relied heavily on external experts; for instance, 87% of academic publications depended on external researchers, and 92% of professional content required industry expert contributions. The average time to get a manuscript ready for publication hovers between 14 and 18 months. This scarcity of top-tier, peer-reviewed content means these creators can dictate terms.

The shift to Open Access (OA) models gives researchers more leverage over publishing terms and Article Processing Charges (APCs). We saw strong growth in Open Access in fiscal 2025, driven by global demand to publish. To keep authors engaged, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. is adapting. For example, starting in February 2025, they piloted a program offering APC discounts based on World Bank metrics to authors in Latin America, aiming to make OA publishing more equitable. This shows researchers, through their OA choices, are influencing the financial structure of content acquisition.

Low power from general academic content contributors is evident because the submission pipeline is so full. The sheer volume of material coming in gives John Wiley & Sons, Inc. the ability to be selective. Key performance indicators for the Research segment showed that article submissions were up 19% for the year ended April 30, 2025. With that kind of volume, the power of the average, non-star contributor definitely shrinks; you just have more options. That's the quick math on that one.

Printing suppliers have low power because John Wiley & Sons, Inc. is fundamentally a digital business now. For the year ended April 30, 2025, a massive 83% of Adjusted Revenue came from digital products and services. In the Research segment specifically, that digital dependency was even higher, at approximately 96% of revenue. When print is only a small fraction of the revenue base, suppliers for physical goods simply can't command high prices.

Specialized technology vendors for digital platforms and AI tools, however, can command high prices. These vendors are becoming critical suppliers for John Wiley & Sons, Inc.'s growth areas. Total AI licensing revenue hit $40 million in fiscal 2025. Within the Learning segment alone, AI licensing brought in $29 million in fiscal 2025, up from $23 million the year before. Securing a third major customer for LLM model training also signals accelerating demand for these specialized digital services, giving those specific tech suppliers leverage.

Here's a look at how the digital shift and AI investment are reshaping supplier dynamics:

• Adjusted Revenue from Digital Products and Services (FY2025): 83%
• Research Segment Revenue from Digital Products (FY2025): 96%
• Total AI Licensing Revenue (FY2025): $40 million
• Article Submissions Increase (FY2025): 19%
• Expected Free Cash Flow (FY2026 Outlook): $200 million

The power of content creators remains high, but the power of physical logistics suppliers is clearly diminishing, while a new class of tech supplier is gaining importance.

The company is actively managing the high-power content suppliers through OA agreements and managing the low-power physical suppliers by focusing on digital revenue streams. Still, the reliance on top-tier researchers is a structural constraint you can't ignore. Finance: draft the Q1 2026 capital allocation plan focusing on digital infrastructure spend by next Wednesday.

John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (WLYB) - Porter's Five Forces: Bargaining power of customers

Academic library consortia wield significant power by negotiating large, bundled subscription deals for recurring revenue. Research revenue, which heavily involves these models, accounted for approximately 64% of John Wiley & Sons, Inc.'s consolidated revenue in the year ended April 30, 2025.

Large tech companies are powerful new customers, driving substantial, non-recurring revenue streams. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. realized total AI licensing revenue of $40 million in Fiscal 2025, a significant increase from $23 million in Fiscal 2024. This corporate segment currently accounts for about 10% of John Wiley & Sons, Inc.'s top line. The company secured its 'third major AI model training customer secured in Q4' of FY25.

Individual student and professional customers have alternatives that keep their perceived switching costs low. In Affordable Access programs, students nationwide save 36%, on average, compared to other purchasing methods.

Institutions demand flexible models like Inclusive Access, putting price pressure on the Academic segment. Adoption of these programs is high, with 80% of colleges and universities offering an access program for at least some courses in the 2024-2025 academic year, up from 75% the prior year.

Government and funding agency mandates for Open Access increase customer control over content distribution. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. notes that open access articles typically perform better than subscription articles, being viewed 3.5x more and cited 1.3x more on average. In the UK, transitional agreements facilitated by Jisc saved the higher education sector £42 million in subscription costs by 2023.

Here's a quick look at the customer leverage points influencing John Wiley & Sons, Inc.:

• AI Licensing Revenue (FY25): $40 million.
• Average Student Savings via Inclusive Access: 36%.
• Research Revenue Share (FY25): Approximately 64% of consolidated revenue.
• Institutional Access Program Adoption: 80% of US colleges/universities.
• Open Access View Multiplier: 3.5x greater views.

The power dynamic is clearly shifting as large institutional buyers and AI developers negotiate terms, while individual student costs are managed through bulk-discount models.

The pressure from institutions adopting programs like Inclusive Access, where 84% of participating students report feeling better prepared for courses, forces John Wiley & Sons, Inc. to accept lower per-unit pricing for guaranteed volume.

John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (WLYB) - Porter's Five Forces: Competitive rivalry

You're looking at a market where John Wiley & Sons, Inc. faces established giants, so the rivalry intensity is high across its core segments. This isn't a sleepy industry; it's a battle for content access and digital delivery, especially as traditional print wanes.

High rivalry exists with major global publishers like Elsevier and Springer Nature in the Research segment. These players compete fiercely for journal submissions, institutional subscriptions, and the growing market for AI data licensing. For the full fiscal year 2025, John Wiley & Sons, Inc.'s Research segment saw revenue up 3% at constant currency, driven by publishing and solutions, with an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 32.1%. Key performance indicators in this segment show submissions were up 19% and output increased by 8% for the year.

Competition is intense in the Learning segment against Pearson and Cengage for digital courseware and professional content. John Wiley & Sons, Inc.'s Learning segment revenue for the full year 2025 was $585 million, up 2% as reported, achieving an Adjusted EBITDA margin of 37.4%. This margin improvement represents a 250 basis points rise year-over-year.

Companies are competing on digital innovation and platform development. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. reported that its Fiscal 2025 capital expenditure (capex) was $77 million. For context on future platform investment, the company reaffirmed its Fiscal 2026 capex expectation to be comparable to this year's total, around $77 million. This digital focus is also evident in the AI licensing revenue, which totaled $40 million in Fiscal 2025, up from $23 million in Fiscal 2024.

Slow growth in some traditional publishing markets forces competitors to aggressively capture market share. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. is actively managing its portfolio, having completed all divestitures, including the planned sale of CrossKnowledge in Q2 of Fiscal 2025. The company reported that 83% of its Adjusted Revenue for the year ended April 30, 2025, was generated by digital products and services. Furthermore, 48% of that Adjusted Revenue is recurring.

John Wiley & Sons, Inc.'s improved profitability shows they are holding their own against this rivalry pressure. Full-year Fiscal 2025 Adjusted EBITDA was $398 million, an 8% increase, with Adjusted EPS growing 31% to $3.64. The overall Adjusted EBITDA margin for the full year was 24%, which the company raised its outlook to a range of 25.5% to 26.5% for the next fiscal year.

Here is a look at the segment performance metrics that reflect the competitive environment:

The competitive dynamics are forcing John Wiley & Sons, Inc. to focus on core strengths and efficiency. You can see this focus in the margin expansion efforts:

• Full Year Adjusted Operating Margin expansion: 300 basis points.
• Learning Segment EBITDA margin improvement since FY2023: 850 basis points.
• Total AI licensing revenue realized in FY2025: $40 million.
• FY2025 Free Cash Flow: $126 million.
• FY2026 Free Cash Flow target: $200 million.

The rivalry is being met with strategic capital allocation, including $60 million toward share repurchases in Fiscal 2025.

John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (WLYB) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of substitutes

You're looking at how external pressures are shaping John Wiley & Sons, Inc.'s core business, and the threat of substitutes is definitely a major one right now. Honestly, the digital shift means that for many of your customers, there are now viable, low-cost or free alternatives to paying for traditional Wiley content.

Open Access (OA) journals and institutional repositories are a major, growing substitute for traditional subscription models. This trend is clearly visible in the market figures, showing significant investment flowing into OA publishing. For instance, the North America Open Access Journals market size surpassed $3.2 Billion in 2025 and is projected to expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 12.00% between 2025 and 2033. This directly pressures the recurring revenue John Wiley & Sons, Inc. derives from journal subscriptions, which made up 48% of its Adjusted Revenue in fiscal year 2025.

Here's a quick look at the scale of the OA market, which directly competes with Wiley's subscription base:

What this estimate hides is that while OA is growing, there was a small but significant drop in its output share between 2022 and 2023, falling from 49% to 48% of monetizable scholarly output. Still, John Wiley & Sons, Inc. reported growth in its own Open Access programs in fiscal year 2025.

Free educational content, like MOOCs (Massive Open Online Courses) and YouTube, substitutes for professional and academic textbooks. While we don't have a direct dollar figure for how much this substitutes for John Wiley & Sons, Inc.'s textbook revenue, the digital learning segment is clearly a focus, as the company saw strong demand for its zyBooks digital courseware materials in fiscal 2025.

• The AI in publishing market was valued at $2.8 billion in 2023.
• The AI datasets & licensing for academic research market was $381.8 million in 2024.
• The company secured $40 million in total AI licensing revenue in Fiscal 2025.

Pre-print servers (e.g., arXiv) offer rapid, non-peer-reviewed dissemination, bypassing traditional publishing entirely. This dynamic is reflected in the slight market share dip for OA articles between 2022 and 2023, where OA article output grew by only 2.1% compared to total article output growth of 3.4%. This suggests some authors are opting for faster, non-traditional routes, which pre-print servers exemplify.

Generative AI tools and large language models (LLMs) threaten to substitute for basic research and content synthesis. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. is actively engaging this threat as an opportunity, reporting total AI licensing revenue of $40 million in fiscal year 2025. The broader global AI in publishing market is projected to reach $41.2 billion by 2033, growing at a CAGR of 30.8% from 2024 to 2033. The AI datasets and licensing market specifically is projected to grow at a CAGR of 26.8% from 2025 to 2030.

Self-publishing platforms offer a low-cost substitute for professional authors, bypassing John Wiley & Sons, Inc.'s distribution. The threat here is low switching costs for authors who can bypass traditional gatekeepers. The company noted softness in its professional segment due to retail channel softness in fiscal 2025, which can be partially attributed to alternative distribution methods bypassing traditional channels.

John Wiley & Sons, Inc. (WLYB) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of new entrants

The threat of new entrants for John Wiley & Sons, Inc. sits in the moderate range, but with significant structural hurdles that protect its core business. Honestly, starting a new, comprehensive academic publisher from scratch today is a different beast than it was even five years ago.

The threat is moderate due to high capital requirements for acquiring and maintaining a century-old, high-impact journal portfolio. You're not just buying servers; you're buying decades of established trust and indexing. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. publishes over 1,800 academic research journals as of April 30, 2025. Maintaining this scale requires continuous investment; for instance, Capital Expenditure (capex) for Fiscal 2025 was expected to be $130 million, driven partly by research platform work.

Significant brand equity and reputation in academic publishing create a high barrier to entry. New entrants struggle to replicate the deep relationships John Wiley & Sons, Inc. holds with established societies. The company publishes journals for many prestigious societies, including the American Cancer Society and the American Heart Association. To compete, a new entrant would need to immediately secure similar high-impact society partnerships, which often look for proven stability.

Digital distribution and platform development require substantial upfront investment and expertise in technology integration. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. reports that over 80% of its revenue comes from digital products and services. Migrating and maintaining a platform like Literatum, which supports over 1,400 journals in its new submission system, demands massive, ongoing tech spend and specialized talent.

Still, new entrants can bypass traditional barriers by focusing on niche, low-cost digital platforms or AI-driven knowledge services. This is where the game changes. John Wiley & Sons, Inc. secured total AI licensing revenue of $40 million in Fiscal 2025 from training large language models (LLMs). The global AI training dataset market size is projected to hit USD 8.6B by 2030. This massive, fast-growing AI segment offers a potential entry point for digitally native competitors who don't need to support legacy print infrastructure.

Tech giants like Google or Microsoft could enter with AI-powered research tools, leveraging their massive data and capital. Microsoft is already integrating its Copilot Search across enterprise applications, and Google has rolled out its AI Mode for search. The US AI market alone was forecast to grow by 235.7 billion U.S. dollars between 2025 and 2031. If these giants decide to directly target the research workflow, their existing infrastructure and capital base present an existential threat to incumbents.

Here's a quick look at the scale of investment and revenue streams that new entrants must overcome or compete against:

The established players in adjacent publishing, like those achieving profit margins near 38%, have set a high bar for profitability, but the capital required to build the content moat is the real deterrent. You're definitely looking at a multi-year, nine-figure commitment just to get to the starting line.

The key vulnerabilities for a new entrant trying to compete head-to-head include:

• Securing high-impact society publishing contracts.
• Overcoming researcher preference for established brands.
• Matching the scale of digital platform functionality.
• Absorbing the initial high fixed costs of content hosting.
• Building auditable, trustworthy AI-integrated workflows.

Conversely, the avenues for disruption are clear, focusing on areas where John Wiley & Sons, Inc. is still adapting:

• Offering niche, low-cost Open Access alternatives.
• Developing superior, vertically-focused AI research agents.
• Bypassing traditional library subscription models entirely.

For example, while John Wiley & Sons, Inc. is investing heavily, the expected Free Cash Flow target for Fiscal 2026 is approximately $200 million, which, while strong, is not the unlimited war chest that a tech giant can deploy against a new market segment.