Breaking Down CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors

You're looking at CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) and seeing a fascinating, contradictory financial picture for 2025. Honestly, the headline numbers are a mixed bag, which is exactly why we need to dig deeper. Analyst consensus is projecting a massive revenue surge to an average of $4.3 billion in 2025, a stunning +78% jump from the prior year's estimate, but here's the rub: Earnings Per Share (EPS) is forecast to decline to $9.7, a drop of about -16.5%. That kind of disconnect-huge top-line growth with bottom-line pressure-is a flashing yellow light for any seasoned investor. Plus, the stock's average 12-month price target of $112.97 suggests a modest 13.41% upside, which is defintely not a runaway train, especially with the strategic complexity of the Arch Resources merger closing anticipated by the end of Q1 2025. We need to understand what's driving the cost side of the equation and whether that huge revenue projection is sustainable, so let's break down the true financial health of CONSOL Energy Inc. right now.

Revenue Analysis

If you're looking at CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX), the direct takeaway is that while the company faced a revenue pullback in 2024, its 2025 outlook is stabilized by substantial pre-contracted coal sales and projected growth. We project CONSOL Energy Inc.'s (CEIX) total revenue for the 2025 fiscal year to be around $2.385 billion, representing a clear rebound from the prior year's performance.

The company's revenue streams are not overly complex, but you defintely need to understand the two main engines: the coal mining operations and the terminal services. CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) is primarily a producer and exporter of high-BTU bituminous coal, which is a core product for both power generation (thermal coal) and steelmaking (metallurgical coal). The bulk of the money comes from the Pennsylvania Mining Complex (PAMC), but the CONSOL Marine Terminal (CMT) is a crucial strategic asset.

• Pennsylvania Mining Complex (PAMC): Sells bituminous coal to domestic and international markets.
• CONSOL Marine Terminal (CMT): Provides coal export terminal services at the Port of Baltimore.
• Itmann Mining Complex (IMC): Focuses on low-volatile metallurgical coal, a higher-value product.

Mapping the 2025 Revenue Trajectory

The recent financial picture shows a dip you need to be aware of. The Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) revenue as of November 2025 stood at $2.14 billion USD. This reflects a decrease from the full-year 2023 revenue of $2.50 billion USD, a drop largely due to softer coal pricing and operational issues like the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse in Q2 2024, which temporarily hampered export capacity. But here's the quick math for 2025: analysts project the full-year 2024 consensus revenue at $2.17 billion. Based on the expected long-term revenue growth rate of 9.90%, we project a 2025 revenue of approximately $2.385 billion.

What this estimate hides is the power of their forward sales book. For 2025, CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) has already contracted approximately 18 million tons of coal. This volume provides a strong, predictable revenue floor, even if the average realized price is in the low $60s per ton. This contracting strategy smooths out the volatility inherent in the global coal market.

Segment Contribution: Where the Money Comes From

To see how the business segments contribute, we look at the latest available quarterly data, which is Q3 2024. The overwhelming majority of revenue comes from the PAMC coal sales. The terminal revenue, while smaller, is high-margin and critical for their export strategy. The merger with Arch Resources, expected to close by the end of Q1 2025, will fundamentally change this segment breakdown, but for now, this is the current structure.

The biggest risk here is that the high concentration in coal sales means their financial health is still tied to global commodity prices and regulatory shifts. You can get a deeper dive into the valuation and strategic risks in our full post: Breaking Down CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Next Step: Portfolio Manager: Assess the impact of the Arch Resources merger on the projected 2025 revenue and margin mix by the end of Q1 2025.

Profitability Metrics

You need to know if CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) is still a high-margin player in a volatile commodity market, and the short answer is yes, but the margins are compressing. As of late 2025, the company maintains a strong gross margin, but the net profit figure reflects the moderating coal price environment and rising operational costs that have hit the entire sector.

Here's the quick math on profitability for CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) based on the latest trailing twelve months (TTM) data ending in November 2025. The company's TTM revenue stands at approximately $2.26 billion, generating a TTM net income of $412.65 million.

The key profitability margins are:

• Gross Profit Margin: 35.16%
• Operating Profit Margin: 16.42%
• Net Profit Margin: 18.26% (Calculated)

Margin Compression and Industry Comparison

The trend in profitability is the most important story here. CONSOL Energy Inc. has seen a noticeable compression in its margins from the peaks of the 2022 commodity boom. The company's Gross Margin, for instance, has declined significantly, reflecting the softening of coal prices and the persistent increase in the cost of goods sold (COGS), which includes labor and supplies.

When you stack CEIX against the US Coal Mining industry, the picture is still favorable, but the gap is closing. In 2024, the median profitability ratios for US-listed coal companies showed a Gross Margin of 29.4%, an Operating Margin of 20.8%, and a Net Profit Margin of 18.1%. You can see CEIX's Gross Margin of 35.16% is still comfortably above the industry median, a sign of its superior cost structure and high-quality coal product. But, its Operating Margin of 16.42% is now below the industry median of 20.8%, which tells you that selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses and depreciation are a larger drag on its operating income compared to peers.

Operational Efficiency and Cost Management

The operational efficiency of CONSOL Energy Inc. remains a key competitive advantage. The Pennsylvania Mining Complex (PAMC), which is the company's main asset, achieved a record third-quarter production of 7.2 million tons in 2024. This high-volume, low-cost production model is what keeps the Gross Margin elevated, even as prices moderate. You can't overlook the impact of the Francis Scott Key Bridge collapse in Q1/Q2 2024, which temporarily constrained the CONSOL Marine Terminal (CMT) and affected coal shipments, but the terminal has since rebounded.

The company is defintely managing costs by locking in future sales, which provides revenue predictability. For 2025, CONSOL Energy Inc. has already contracted approximately 18 million tons of coal. This forward-selling strategy mitigates some of the risk from fluctuating spot prices, helping to stabilize future gross margin trends. The lower-than-industry Operating Margin, however, suggests that while production costs (COGS) are well-managed, non-production overheads need closer scrutiny to see where the leverage (the use of debt or fixed costs to amplify returns) is being lost. For a deeper look at who is betting on this operational strength, you should read Exploring CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) Investor Profile: Who's Buying and Why?

Debt vs. Equity Structure

You want to know how CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) pays for its growth, and the simple answer is: very conservatively. The company runs on a remarkably low Debt-to-Equity (D/E) ratio, signaling a strong preference for using retained earnings and equity over taking on new leverage. This is a huge green flag for financial health.

As of the most recent trailing twelve months data, CONSOL Energy Inc.'s Debt-to-Equity ratio sits at a mere 0.06. To be fair, this is an exceptionally low number, meaning for every dollar of equity, the company carries only 6 cents of debt. This is better than over 80% of its industry peers, which tells you they are defintely not chasing risky leverage.

Looking at the balance sheet, the company's total long-term debt and finance lease obligations were around $196 million as of March 31, 2024. This included a current portion-meaning short-term debt due within a year-of just $9 million. This structure shows a clear focus on debt reduction and manageable obligations.

The near-term risk you need to watch is the maturity of $103 million in industrial revenue bonds, which are due in September 2025. Here's the quick math: paying down that significant chunk of debt will further de-risk the balance sheet, but it will require a substantial cash outlay in the latter half of the fiscal year.

On the credit side, S&P Global placed CONSOL Energy Inc.'s 'B+' issuer credit rating on CreditWatch with positive implications in August 2024. This positive outlook is tied directly to the proposed all-stock merger with Arch Resources, expected to close by the end of the first quarter of 2025. The combined entity, Core Natural Resources, is projected to have a strong balance sheet and a pro forma net cash position, which could trigger a credit rating upgrade.

The company's financing strategy is simple: use debt for targeted, long-life assets-like the $75 million PEDFA Bonds for the Central Preparation Plant expansion-but rely heavily on internally generated cash flow and equity to fund ongoing operations and growth. This low-leverage model minimizes interest expense and gives them significant financial flexibility, a key advantage in a cyclical industry. You can see more details on the full analysis in Breaking Down CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Liquidity and Solvency

When you look at CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX), the immediate takeaway is a solid, defintely healthy liquidity position. They have more than enough short-term assets to cover their immediate obligations, which is exactly what you want to see in a commodity-exposed business. I'm looking at the latest figures, and they show a company that is managing its cash effectively while returning capital to shareholders.

Current and Quick Ratios Signal Strength

The current ratio and quick ratio are your first line of defense in assessing a company's ability to pay its bills. For CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX), the recent current ratio stands at approximately 1.38, which is comfortably above the 1.0 benchmark that signals good liquidity. This means for every dollar of short-term debt, they have $1.38 in current assets to cover it.

The quick ratio, which strips out inventory-often the least liquid current asset-is also strong at about 1.16. This is an excellent sign, especially for a mining company where inventory (coal stockpiles) can sometimes be volatile in value. They could pay off their short-term liabilities even if they sold no more coal today. That's a good spot to be in.

Working Capital and Cash Flow Trends

The working capital trend for CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) points to a disciplined financial strategy. While a strong current ratio already implies positive working capital (current assets minus current liabilities), the company's capital allocation strategy reinforces this strength. They have been focused on debt reduction and share buybacks, which means they are generating excess cash from operations and putting it to work for shareholders, not just hoarding it.

The cash flow statement for the third quarter of 2024, which is the most recent near-term indicator as we approach 2025, shows impressive generation:

• Operating Cash Flow: Net cash provided by operating activities was strong at $161.3 million. This is the cash engine-the money generated from core coal mining and terminal services.
• Investing Cash Flow: While not explicitly detailed as a single Q3 number, a healthy operating cash flow suggests they can fund their capital expenditures (CapEx) for things like property, plant, and equipment (PP&E) internally, which is a sign of financial independence.
• Financing Cash Flow: The company is actively returning capital, announcing a dividend of $0.25 per share in Q3 2024. This is a clear signal of confidence in their future cash generation.

Liquidity Strengths and Near-Term Actions

The primary liquidity strength is the massive free cash flow generation coupled with a conservative balance sheet. Their debt-to-equity ratio, for instance, was approximately 0.26 at the end of 2024, which is quite low and suggests they are not overly reliant on debt financing. This low leverage acts as a buffer against commodity price swings.

What this estimate hides is the potential impact of the pending merger with Arch Resources, which is expected to close by the end of the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25). This transaction will reshape the balance sheet and cash flow profile, but the underlying operational strength-evidenced by having approximately 18 million tons contracted for 2025-provides a stable revenue floor. Also, you can review the Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX). to understand the long-term strategic direction that supports this financial health.

Your action item here is to monitor the 1Q25 earnings report closely for the post-merger balance sheet, specifically looking at how the combined entity's working capital is structured.

Valuation Analysis

You want to know if CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) was overvalued or undervalued, and the short answer is that the market largely saw a deep discount right before the company's major shift. The valuation metrics for CEIX in late 2024 and early 2025 strongly suggested it was undervalued, especially when factoring in the impending merger.

The core of the valuation story is that CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) officially merged with Arch Resources to form Core Natural Resources, Inc., which started trading under the new ticker CNR on the NYSE on January 15, 2025. So, the valuation you are looking at is for the legacy company right before it became part of a larger entity, a deal expected to generate up to $140 million in annual synergies.

Key Valuation Ratios (Pre-Merger TTM)

Looking at the trailing twelve-month (TTM) figures leading up to the merger, CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) traded at multiples that were significantly lower than the broader market, which often signals a value opportunity (or a major risk). Here's the quick math on key metrics:

• Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: The P/E ratio was around 7.36, based on an Earnings Per Share (EPS) of $13.54. This is defintely a low multiple, suggesting investors were paying only $7.36 for every dollar of the company's earnings.
• Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: At approximately 0.66 (TTM), the stock was trading below its book value, a classic indicator of a potentially undervalued asset.
• Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) Ratio: This metric stood at about 6.31 (TTM). For a capital-intensive industry like coal, an EV/EBITDA in the single digits is often considered attractive.

The market was clearly skeptical, demanding a deep discount on earnings and assets, but the low multiples suggested a significant fundamental value was being overlooked.

Stock Performance and Analyst Consensus

The stock price trend leading into the merger reflected volatility. Over the 52 weeks prior to the merger's completion in January 2025, the stock traded between a high of $134.59 and a low of $58.19. The last reported price for CEIX before the merger was approximately $99.61. This decline from the 52-week high shows the market's uncertainty, but the consensus view was overwhelmingly positive.

Analyst consensus, even after the merger announcement, was a Strong Buy. The average analyst price target for the stock was around $141.78, implying an upside of over 42% from the pre-merger closing price of $99.61. Furthermore, Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) models suggested an intrinsic value as high as $232.20, pointing to a massive potential upside of 133.1%.

For a deeper dive into who was holding the stock during this transition, you should check out Exploring CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) Investor Profile: Who's Buying and Why?

Dividend and Payout Reality

For income-focused investors, the dividend picture was mixed. The annual dividend per share was set at $1.00, resulting in a forward dividend yield of about 1.19%. However, the TTM Payout Ratio-the percentage of earnings paid out as dividends-was high at 148.79%. A payout ratio over 100% means the company is paying out more than it earns in a given period, which isn't sustainable long-term. This high ratio was likely due to non-recurring earnings fluctuations or a focus on returning cash to shareholders ahead of the merger, a common strategy.

What this estimate hides is the potential for the combined entity, Core Natural Resources, Inc., to reset its capital return policy based on the promised $110 million to $140 million in annual synergies, which could stabilize the dividend going forward.

Risk Factors

You're looking at CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) and seeing strong Q3 2024 performance, but as a seasoned analyst, I know the real value is in mapping the near-term risks. Honestly, the coal industry faces structural headwinds, so we need to be defintely clear on what could derail their trajectory.

The biggest challenge isn't just internal; it's the external shift in market conditions and regulatory pressure. The global transition to cleaner energy is a long-term headwind, and while demand is resilient now-fueled by developing economies and data centers-that could change. The domestic share of coal in U.S. power generation is projected to drop to just 14% by the end of 2025, according to the Energy Information Administration.

External Market and Regulatory Risks

CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) is constantly navigating a high-stakes environment where two factors dominate: price volatility and political action. Commodity price risk is a constant threat; a sharp drop in international coal prices would immediately pressure their margins, even with their contract book.

• Regulatory Headwinds: Stricter environmental rules on emissions and mining practices increase operating costs, potentially limiting the company's ability to produce and sell coal.
• Industry Competition: The market is highly competitive, both domestically and internationally. Increased competition often leads to lower realized prices and reduced sales volumes.
• Long-Term Demand Cliff: While short-term demand is resilient, the eventual, long-term replacement of coal by renewable energy could create a revenue cliff.

Operational and Financial Risks

Operationally, the company is a low-cost producer, but logistics and execution still carry risk. For example, in Q3 2024, the company noted operational delays at the Itmann Mining Complex, which led to an adjustment in its annual guidance for that project. Also, transportation timing issues have meant production has outpaced sales by approximately 600,000 tons year-to-date as of Q3 2024.

Financially, their debt load is manageable, but it's a factor. The company reported total debt of $524.1 million as of December 31, 2024. While their debt-to-equity ratio of approximately 0.26 suggests conservative financing relative to peers, it still exposes them to interest rate risk.

Mitigation Strategies and 2025 Contract Coverage

The good news is CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) has clear strategies to manage these risks. Their focus on long-term contracts is the best hedge against commodity price volatility. Here's the quick math on their 2025 positioning:

The 18 million tons contracted for 2025 provides a solid floor for revenue, which is a key competitive advantage. They also use financial hedging to mitigate commodity price risk and are investing in safety programs to reduce operational disruptions. Strategically, the proposed merger with Arch Resources, expected to close by the end of Q1 2025, is intended to diversify assets and realize cost savings, further mitigating risk.

If you want to dive deeper into the company's long-term vision that informs these strategic moves, you should review their Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX).

Next Step: Finance should model a sensitivity analysis on the remaining 10.5 million tons of PAMC capacity (28.5M capacity minus 18M contracted) to a 10% drop in uncontracted coal prices by Friday.

Growth Opportunities

The future growth prospects for CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX) are fundamentally redefined by its strategic merger with Arch Resources, Inc., which closed in early 2025, creating a new entity called Core Natural Resources. This isn't just a name change; it's a major scale-up designed to capture global market share and operational efficiencies.

The core of this growth strategy is realizing the substantial synergies (cost savings and operational benefits) from the combination. Management projects that these annual cost and operational synergies will deliver between $110 million and $140 million. This is a clear, near-term financial boost, and honestly, you don't see that kind of guaranteed efficiency baked into many deals.

This merger immediately amplifies the company's competitive advantages, positioning Core Natural Resources as a premier North American producer and exporter. Their growth drivers are now much broader:

• Scale and Diversification: The combined company operates 11 mines and has a total export capacity of approximately 25 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa).
• Logistics Control: They now have ownership interests in two marine export terminals on the U.S. Eastern seaboard, plus strategic connectivity to ports on the West Coast and the Gulf of Mexico.
• Product Mix: The portfolio is now more balanced, ranging from high-Btu thermal coal to high-value metallurgical coal, including the ramp-up of the Itmann Mine, which is expected to produce roughly 900 thousand tons per annum of premium metallurgical coking coal when fully operational.

Looking at the near-term financial picture for the combined entity, the analyst consensus suggests a significant jump in scale for the 2025 fiscal year. Here's the quick math on the expected top-line growth:

What this estimate hides is the one-time costs associated with integrating two major operations, which is likely why the Earnings Per Share (EPS) projection of $9.7 is forecast to decline from the 2024 estimate of $11.6. Still, a nearly 78% jump in revenue shows the immediate scale advantage. You defintely need to factor in the merger costs for 2025, but the long-term revenue base is clearly much stronger.

Beyond the merger, the company is capitalizing on a surprising near-term tailwind: resilient domestic coal demand. The rise of large-scale data centers for AI and other computing needs is driving up electricity demand, which in turn is slowing down the retirement of some coal-fired power plants in the U.S. This, plus the company's long-term fixed-price contracts-some extending through 2028 for domestic tons-provides a strong, predictable revenue floor, a critical advantage in the volatile commodity market.

The company is also looking to the future through CONSOL Innovations, a segment focused on developing and commercializing technologies in carbon products and carbon management. This is a smart hedge against the long-term structural headwind of coal decline. For more on the foundational philosophy, you can review the Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of CONSOL Energy Inc. (CEIX).