Exploring Old National Bancorp (ONB) Investor Profile: Who’s Buying and Why?

You're looking at Old National Bancorp (ONB) right now and asking the right question: who exactly is buying this regional bank, and what's their conviction? Honestly, the investor profile tells a clear story of institutional confidence; a massive 94.02% of the stock is held by institutional investors, meaning the big money-firms like Blackrock Inc. and Vanguard Group Inc.-are the primary owners, not retail traders. This isn't a retail frenzy, but a calculated bet on a regional player with a market capitalization around $8.11 billion as of November 2025. The core of their thesis is performance and integration: Old National Bancorp just delivered a strong Q3 2025, with adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) hitting $0.59, beating analyst forecasts, plus they're seeing core deposit growth at a 5.8% annualized rate, which is defintely a sign of stability in a tough banking environment. So, are these institutions buying for the dividend, the integration synergies from the Bremer Bank partnership, or the potential upside to the average analyst price target of $26.27? We need to map out the risks and opportunities that justify this institutional weighting.

Who Invests in Old National Bancorp (ONB) and Why?

If you're looking at Old National Bancorp (ONB), you're defintely not alone; the investor base is dominated by large financial institutions, which tells you the stock is viewed as a serious, long-term holding, not a speculative play. The primary draw is a mix of stable, income-generating dividends and a clear undervaluation narrative that points to significant upside.

The investor profile is overwhelmingly institutional, meaning the big players-mutual funds, pension funds, and hedge funds-hold the lion's share. As of the most recent data, institutional investors own approximately 83.66% of Old National Bancorp's outstanding shares. This leaves a smaller, but still important, segment for retail investors (individual shareholders) and insiders.

Key Investor Types: The Institutional Giants

The sheer concentration of institutional ownership means that when you buy a share of Old National Bancorp, you're investing alongside some of the world's largest asset managers. These are not small bets; they represent deep-pocketed, long-term capital. Here's a quick look at the breakdown:

• Institutional Investors: Around 83.66% ownership. These include firms like BlackRock, Inc., The Vanguard Group, Inc., and State Street Corp., which manage massive index and mutual funds.
• Hedge Funds: While smaller in percentage, their activity is crucial. Firms like Millennium Management LLC and Citadel Advisors LLC made significant increases in their holdings in late 2024, signaling opportunistic, event-driven, or short-term value strategies.
• Retail Investors: The remaining ownership, drawn primarily to the stability and dividend income of a regional bank.

Here's the quick math: when BlackRock, Inc. holds over 42.3 million shares and The Vanguard Group, Inc. holds over 36.8 million shares (as of September 30, 2025), their investment decisions move the needle. They are buying for stability and scale.

Investment Motivations: Stability and Undervaluation

The motivations for holding Old National Bancorp stock boil down to three concrete factors: a strong dividend, a compelling valuation story, and a clear growth plan, especially in digital banking. The bank is the sixth largest commercial bank headquartered in the Midwest, with approximately $71 billion of assets, which gives it a solid market position.

Dividend Income and Safety: Old National Bancorp is a reliable dividend payer. The quarterly cash dividend is currently declared at $0.14 per share, which annualizes to $0.56. This translates to a forward dividend yield of approximately 2.7% as of November 2025. What makes it attractive to income investors is the low payout ratio (the percentage of earnings paid out as dividends), which sits at roughly 32.75%. That low number suggests the dividend is safe and has room to grow, even if earnings growth is muted.

Growth and Undervaluation: Analysts see a clear path for capital appreciation. The stock is currently trading below its estimated fair value. For example, one recent analysis suggests a fair value of $25.75 against a recent share price closer to $19.96, implying a material undervaluation. Analysts forecast a consensus price target of $26.27 for the next twelve months. Plus, the company is expected to grow its Earnings Per Share (EPS) by a significant 77.7% over the next three years, fueled by strategic investments in digital banking and expansion initiatives.

Investment Strategies: Value, Growth, and Income

The high institutional ownership drives specific strategies. You see a clear split between classic value investors, long-term income funds, and growth-oriented managers betting on the bank's digital transformation.

The primary strategies at play include:

The long-term resilience-with a total return up 37.2% over the past five years-is a strong signal to buy and hold. Still, what this estimate hides is the ongoing risk from commercial real estate exposure, a factor regional banks must manage defintely. If you want a deeper dive into the balance sheet, you should check out Breaking Down Old National Bancorp (ONB) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

The overall consensus from Wall Street analysts is a 'Moderate Buy,' with 7 out of 12 analysts issuing a 'Buy' rating and one a 'Strong Buy' rating, which aligns with the view that the stock offers a compelling risk-reward profile right now.

Institutional Ownership and Major Shareholders of Old National Bancorp (ONB)

If you're looking at Old National Bancorp (ONB), the first thing to understand is that it is defintely an institutionally-owned stock. This isn't a retail-driven play; it's a core holding for some of the biggest money managers in the world. As of the third quarter of 2025, institutional investors-meaning mutual funds, pension funds, and hedge funds-own an overwhelming majority, typically cited between 83.66% and 88.43% of the company's shares.

This high level of institutional ownership is a double-edged sword: it provides stability and a strong vote of confidence in the long-term strategy, but it also means the stock's price movements can be heavily influenced by a few large trades or shifts in sector-wide sentiment. One big fund selling a large block can move the price fast.

Top Institutional Investors and Their Stakes

The list of Old National Bancorp's largest shareholders reads like a who's who of global asset management. These firms hold massive positions, not just for short-term gains, but often as part of passive index funds or long-duration strategies. For instance, the top three institutional holders alone account for a significant portion of the total shares outstanding.

Here's the quick math on the top holders based on their Q3 2025 13F filings, which are the latest public disclosures:

It's worth noting that Old National Bancorp /in/ holding the largest position is common for banks, as it often includes shares held by the bank's trust and wealth management departments on behalf of clients.

Recent Shifts: Why Institutions Are Buying and Selling

The recent trend through the second and third quarters of 2025 has been a net accumulation of Old National Bancorp stock by institutions. In the most recent reporting period, 204 institutional funds increased their positions, which outpaced the 177 funds that decreased their stakes. This suggests that more money is flowing in than out, which is a key indicator of positive long-term sentiment.

The biggest catalyst for this accumulation is the successful integration of the Bremer Bank acquisition, which closed in May 2025. Institutional investors are clearly rewarding the bank for its execution, as demonstrated by the Q3 2025 results. The adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.59 beat analyst forecasts, and the adjusted Return on Average Tangible Common Equity (ROATCE) reached a robust 20.1%.

• Schonfeld Strategic Advisors LLC grew its stake by 47.7% in Q3 2025.
• Creative Planning boosted its holdings by 13.1% in the same quarter.
• BlackRock, Inc. and Vanguard Group Inc added 2,806,185 and 3,379,577 shares, respectively, in Q3 2025.

The institutional accumulation is largely a bet on Old National Bancorp's ability to capitalize on the scale and efficiency gains from the merger, which is expected to drive full-year 2025 EPS to around $2.08.

Impact on Stock Price and Corporate Strategy

The sheer volume of institutional money has a direct and significant impact on Old National Bancorp's stock price and long-term strategy. These large shareholders aren't passive; they expect performance and often engage with management on key decisions, especially around capital allocation and growth.

The institutional focus is currently on two main areas:

• Efficiency and Profitability: The successful integration of Bremer Bank has improved the adjusted efficiency ratio to 48.1% in Q3 2025. Institutional investors value this operational discipline, as it translates directly into higher pre-provision net revenue.
• Capital Allocation: Management's decision to repurchase 1.1 million shares in Q3 2025, while maintaining a strong CET1 capital ratio of 11.02%, signals confidence and a commitment to returning capital to shareholders. This is a major plus for large funds.

The consensus analyst rating is a 'Moderate Buy' with an average price target of $26.27, reflecting optimism that the stock is still undervalued relative to the expected earnings power of the now much larger bank, which boasts total deposits of $55.0 billion as of Q3 2025. Their collective buying power acts as a floor for the stock, and their approval of the strategy-focused on organic growth and a diversified loan portfolio-validates the bank's path forward. To get a deeper dive into the fundamentals driving these decisions, you should read Breaking Down Old National Bancorp (ONB) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Key Investors and Their Impact on Old National Bancorp (ONB)

If you're looking at Old National Bancorp (ONB), you're looking at a stock that is overwhelmingly controlled by institutional money. This isn't a retail-driven story; it's a vote of confidence from the world's largest asset managers, and their buying patterns tell you exactly what they think of the company's strategy.

As of the most recent filings, institutional investors own approximately 83.66% of Old National Bancorp's stock. That's a huge percentage, and it means the stock's movement is defintely dictated by the big funds. The investment thesis is simple: they're betting on the successful integration of the Bremer Bank merger and the bank's disciplined regional focus.

The Heavy Hitters: Who Owns the Largest Stakes?

The list of top shareholders is dominated by the passive giants, the ones who buy and hold for the long haul because Old National Bancorp is a key component of their index funds or factor-based strategies. This passive ownership base provides a strong, stable floor for the stock price.

Here's the quick math on the largest reported institutional stakes, based on the most recent 2025 fiscal year data:

The sheer size of the holdings by firms like FMR LLC (Fidelity) and Dimensional Fund Advisors LP shows that smart money sees Old National Bancorp as a core regional bank holding. The massive increase in the internal trust's position is also notable, often signaling a strategic, long-term commitment to the stock from the company itself.

Recent Moves and Investor Influence: Merger Confidence

The most important factor driving recent institutional moves is the successful integration of Bremer Bank, which closed on May 1, 2025. The large-scale buying in the first half of 2025, especially the addition of over 23.4 million shares by FMR LLC in Q1 2025, was a clear bet on the merger synergies and the bank's ability to execute. This is the market rewarding a clear, accretive growth strategy.

While Old National Bancorp does not appear to be facing any public activist investor campaigns in 2025, the major institutions still exert influence through their proxy voting and engagement on core financial metrics. The focus is on a few key areas:

• Capital Deployment: Investors cheered the company's decision to repurchase over 1.1 million shares in Q3 2025, a move that signals confidence in its capital position and a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
• Operational Efficiency: They expect the company to maintain its improved efficiency ratio, which hit an adjusted 48.1% in Q3 2025, post-merger.
• Profitability Metrics: The institutional community is keenly focused on the adjusted return on average tangible common equity (ROATCE), which soared to 20.1% in Q3 2025, a top-tier metric that validates their long-term investment.

To be fair, not everyone is buying. Hedge funds like CITADEL ADVISORS LLC and MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC reduced their stakes significantly in Q1 2025, removing over 4 million and 3.4 million shares, respectively. This is typical rotation; some investors take profits after a merger announcement, while others step in to capture the long-term integration upside. You can dive deeper into the core drivers of this performance in Breaking Down Old National Bancorp (ONB) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

The consistent vote of confidence from the largest passive and quantitative funds suggests that the market believes in management's strategic objective: to be a top-quartile performing regional bank focused on a strong credit culture and low-cost deposit base. That's the real story here.

Market Impact and Investor Sentiment

You're looking at Old National Bancorp (ONB) and wondering who's holding the stock and what they're thinking-a smart move, because institutional money dictates near-term price action. The direct takeaway is that major shareholders hold a decidedly Moderate Buy sentiment, largely driven by the successful integration of the Bremer Bank acquisition and strong 2025 financial performance. Institutional investors own a significant 83.66% of the stock, which is a high conviction level for a regional bank.

This institutional confidence is the bedrock of the stock's current valuation. We also see a tangible shift in short-term trading sentiment: the percentage of shares sold short has declined by 4.88% recently, lowering the short interest to 6.04% of the float. When short sellers (traders betting the stock will fall) back off, it signals a growing bullish consensus among market participants. Less shorting means less downward pressure, so that's a clean one-liner for you.

The Big Players: Who's Buying and Why

The institutional owner list for Old National Bancorp reads like a who's who of global asset management. These aren't retail investors making small bets; these are massive funds making multi-million-dollar, calculated capital allocations. For example, in the third quarter of 2025 alone, Blackrock, Inc. increased its position by over 2.8 million shares, and Vanguard Group Inc. boosted its stake by nearly 3.4 million shares.

Here's the quick math on the top three institutional holders as of the end of Q3 2025, which gives you a sense of the capital commitment:

What this estimate hides is the strategic reason for the buying. These firms aren't chasing momentum; they're buying into the bank's operational story. The successful systems conversion of the Bremer Bank partnership, completed in Q3 2025, is a major factor, as it immediately bolsters the balance sheet and enhances operational efficiency, which you can read more about in Breaking Down Old National Bancorp (ONB) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Recent Market Reactions and Analyst Confidence

The market has responded positively to Old National Bancorp's execution on its strategic plan. When the bank reported its Q3 2025 earnings on October 22, 2025, the stock price immediately rose by 1.52% in pre-market trading, reflecting investor optimism. The bank announced an adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.59, which surpassed the consensus forecast of $0.56. This kind of earnings beat is a clear signal to the market that the management team is delivering.

Analyst perspectives reinforce this positive outlook. The consensus analyst rating is a Moderate Buy, with an average 12-month price target of $26.27. Considering the stock was trading near $20.77 in mid-November 2025, this target implies a potential upside of approximately 27%. Analysts are focusing on key performance indicators (KPIs) like the adjusted return on average tangible common equity (ROATCE) hitting an impressive 20.1% in Q3 2025, and the net interest margin (NIM) improving to 3.64%.

• Adjusted EPS for Q3 2025 was $0.59.
• Full-year 2025 EPS is forecasted at around $2.08.
• The Bremer integration is expected to realize 25% of projected cost savings in 2025.

The valuation narrative suggests the stock is currently undervalued by as much as 22.5% compared to a fair value of $25.75, based on aggressive growth assumptions and margin gains. To be fair, rising competition in commercial lending and exposure to regional Commercial Real Estate (CRE) markets are risks, but the market is defintely pricing in a strong operational performance for 2026, with EPS projected to grow to $2.58.