Old National Bancorp (ONB): ANSOFF MATRIX [Dec-2025 Updated]

You're looking for the real, actionable growth blueprint for Old National Bancorp (ONB) right now, beyond the usual analyst chatter. Honestly, their Q3 2025 numbers show they're not just sitting still; they're pushing market penetration with a 5.8% core deposit growth target while simultaneously planning big moves like integrating those 70 acquired Bremer Bank branches and even eyeing a FinTech investment. It's a classic mix of safe bets-like using that tight 48.1% adjusted efficiency ratio to price mortgages aggressively-and major leaps into new territory, like potentially launching a national digital bank brand. We've mapped out exactly where Old National Bancorp is putting its chips across the Ansoff Matrix, from deepening Midwest commercial lending (up 20% last quarter) to developing new high-net-worth products that could bolster that $132.5 million in Q2 fee income; check out the breakdown below to see the near-term opportunities and the calculated risks involved.

Old National Bancorp (ONB) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Penetration

Market Penetration for Old National Bancorp centers on increasing market share within its existing Midwest footprint by maximizing penetration with current clients and prospects. This strategy relies heavily on operational efficiency and relationship depth.

Increase core deposit growth, which was 5.8% annualized in Q3 2025, by offering competitive rates. This growth in the low-cost deposit franchise is key to funding loan growth and managing funding costs. Period-end total deposits reached $55.0 billion in Q3 2025, with core deposits driving the annualized increase. The total deposit costs were 197 bps.

Drive commercial loan production, which was up 20% in Q3 2025, by deepening existing client relationships. Total commercial loan production in the third quarter was $2.8 billion, and the period-end commercial pipeline stood at $4.2 billion. This robust production helped keep the loan to deposit ratio at a healthy 87%.

Leverage the sub-50% adjusted efficiency ratio (48.1% in Q3 2025) to offer more aggressive pricing on mortgages. This level of cost control, even with the full quarter impact of the Bremer integration, provides pricing flexibility in competitive lending markets. The underlying operational discipline supports this competitive stance.

Run targeted promotions, like the $450 cash bonus for new checking accounts, to capture local consumer market share. This tactic directly targets new customer acquisition within the established geographic and product scope.

Cross-sell wealth management services to existing commercial banking clients in the Midwest. This effort capitalizes on the strong commercial banking relationships already established. The focus is on increasing wallet share per client rather than acquiring entirely new client logos for the wealth segment.

Here's a quick look at some key Q3 2025 metrics supporting this market penetration focus:

The success of this strategy is also visible in the overall profitability and capital strength achieved through operational focus:

• Net interest income on a fully taxable equivalent basis was $582.6 million.
• Net interest margin on a fully taxable equivalent basis was 3.64%.
• Net income applicable to common shares was $178.5 million.
• Adjusted Earnings Per Diluted Common Share was $0.59.
• Old National Bancorp repurchased 1.1 million shares of common stock during the quarter.

Old National Bancorp (ONB) - Ansoff Matrix: Market Development

You're looking at how Old National Bancorp is taking its existing banking model and pushing it into new geographic territories. This is Market Development in action, building on recent, large-scale acquisitions.

Fully integrate the 70 acquired Bremer Bank branches to establish a dominant presence in the Upper Midwest.

The systems conversion for the Bremer Bank partnership officially wrapped up as of October 20, 2025, meaning the integration of those 70 branches is now complete on the core technology platform. This move significantly bolstered Old National Bancorp's position, especially in Minnesota, North Dakota, and Wisconsin, where Bremer had a strong regional footprint. Before the merger closed on May 1, 2025, Bremer brought $13.2 billion in deposits. Now, Old National Bancorp reports period-end total deposits of $55.0 billion as of the third quarter of 2025, with core deposits growing at an annualized rate of 5.8%. The combined entity has approximately $70 billion in assets on a pro forma basis from March 31, 2025.

Expand commercial and industrial (C&I) lending teams in the Southeast markets, capitalizing on the CapStar footprint.

Old National Bancorp already operates in the Southeast, building on the CapStar Bank partnership that closed April 1, 2024. That deal added 23 banking centers across markets like Nashville, Chattanooga, Knoxville, and Asheville, North Carolina. To support this region, Old National increased its Community Growth Plan by about $1.2 billion in 2024 specifically to expand support throughout this Southeast footprint. The focus now is on deploying relationship managers to drive loan growth in these established, but still developing, markets. Commercial loan production in the third quarter of 2025 was $2.8 billion, up 20% from the second quarter of 2025.

Target new metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) adjacent to current operations in states like Kentucky or Pennsylvania.

Old National Bancorp currently serves clients across several states, including Kentucky. While the immediate focus post-Bremer is solidifying the Upper Midwest, the strategy involves organic expansion into adjacent MSAs where the existing state presence provides a base. The company's historical approach involves disciplined expansion, often following successful wealth management or commercial banking team introductions, as seen previously in Tennessee. The goal is to use the existing infrastructure in states like Kentucky to seed growth in nearby, attractive markets.

Utilize the strong liquidity position (loan-to-deposit ratio of 87%) to fund loan growth in new regional markets.

The balance sheet strength is the engine for this market development. As of Q3 2025, Old National Bancorp maintains a loan-to-deposit ratio of 87%. This ratio, coupled with total deposits of $55.0 billion, signals strong liquidity available to fund expansion and loan demand without immediate reliance on volatile wholesale funding markets. Period-end total loans stood at $48.0 billion. This liquidity position is key for funding the necessary build-out of C&I teams and establishing a presence in new MSAs.

Here's a quick look at the financial foundation supporting this expansion strategy as of the third quarter of 2025:

The Community Growth Plan was also increased by an additional $1.6 billion in connection with the Bremer partnership to support new Upper Midwest communities. This commitment is earmarked for lending, investments, and philanthropy across Minnesota, North Dakota, and Wisconsin.

• Bremer systems conversion finalized: October 20, 2025
• Total assets post-Bremer merger: approximately $70 billion
• Total banking centers operated: over 280
• CapStar footprint includes: Tennessee and North Carolina
• New Community Growth Plan commitment: $1.6 billion

If onboarding new teams takes longer than expected, loan pipeline conversion could slow down. Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Old National Bancorp (ONB) - Ansoff Matrix: Product Development

You're looking at how Old National Bancorp (ONB) can grow by introducing new offerings to its existing client base. This is the Product Development quadrant of the Ansoff Matrix, and it's about deepening relationships through innovation.

Enhance the small business digital banking platform with advanced treasury and cash management tools. You launched a new small business digital banking platform back in 2024, which included modern money movement capabilities and comprehensive business management tools. Now, the focus shifts to feature parity with larger competitors in treasury services. This means building out sophisticated tools for things like automated sweeps, complex payment approvals, and real-time liquidity management for your commercial clients who are already using your core services.

Introduce a new high-net-worth investment product suite to bolster fee-based noninterest income, which was $132.5 million in Q2 2025. This move targets existing affluent clients who might currently be using external advisors for complex wealth structuring or trust services. The goal here is to capture more of that wallet share internally by offering differentiated, high-touch solutions that drive higher fee realization per client relationship. Honestly, capturing even a small percentage of assets under management from this new suite could significantly move that noninterest income line.

Launch specialized commercial credit facilities for high-growth, niche industries. A clear example of this strategy in action is the recent $5 million critical mineral feedstock line extended to American Resources Corporation. This facility directly supports a client in a high-growth, specialized sector, enabling them to finance procurement of end-of-life materials for rare earth element refining. It shows Old National Bancorp is willing to structure credit for emerging, technically complex industries, which builds deep, sticky commercial relationships.

To keep perspective on the scale of operations as you roll out these new products, here are some key figures from the second quarter of 2025:

Develop a proprietary digital financial wellness tool for retail clients to improve financial literacy and retention. You want to move beyond basic budgeting apps. Think about integrating personalized debt-paydown simulations, retirement readiness modeling based on their specific ONB accounts, and automated goal tracking. If onboarding takes 14+ days for a new feature, churn risk rises, so this needs to be instantly accessible via the existing mobile app.

Offer a premium 5-month Certificate of Deposit (CD) with a 4.00% APY to attract new money from existing clients. This is a targeted product designed to shift existing, perhaps lower-yielding, operational or savings balances into longer-term, more stable funding sources for Old National Bancorp. You're using a competitive rate to encourage existing clients to consolidate more of their liquid assets onto your balance sheet, which is a lower-cost acquisition channel than bringing in entirely new customers.

• Enhance small business platform with advanced treasury tools.
• Launch HNW investment suite targeting fee income growth.
• Structure specialized credit for niche sectors like critical minerals.
• Develop proprietary digital financial wellness tool.
• Offer premium 5-month CD at 4.00% APY for existing client deposits.

Finance: draft the projected fee income uplift from the HNW suite for the next two quarters by Monday.

Old National Bancorp (ONB) - Ansoff Matrix: Diversification

You're looking at how Old National Bancorp (ONB) can expand beyond its core markets and services, which is the Diversification quadrant of the Ansoff Matrix. This means new products in new markets, or new business lines entirely. Given the recent closing of the Bremer Financial Corporation merger in May 2025, the immediate focus is integration, but strategic diversification moves are key for the next phase of growth.

The combined entity, following the Bremer acquisition, has approximately $70 billion of assets and ranks among the top 25 banking companies headquartered in the U.S.. The current Asset Management business already manages $38 billion in assets under management as of a June 2025 report.

Here are the specific diversification vectors Old National Bancorp is positioned to pursue:

• Acquire a regional asset management firm to significantly grow the $38 billion in assets under management.
• Enter a new, non-contiguous high-growth state like Texas or Florida via a strategic, small-scale commercial banking acquisition.
• Invest in a FinTech company specializing in B2B payments to create a new, non-traditional revenue stream.
• Form a dedicated venture capital fund to invest in affordable housing and economic development projects, aligning with the 2025 grant priorities.
• Launch a national, digital-only bank brand to capture deposits outside the traditional branch network, defintely.

The recent Community Growth Plan (CGP) expansion already shows a commitment to community investment, which can be leveraged for a dedicated fund strategy. The total five-year CGP commitment is now $11.1 billion.

Consider the scale post-Bremer integration, which is the baseline for these new ventures:

For the venture capital and community development angle, you see a clear pattern of commitment. For instance, the addendum to the CGP commits $1.635 billion in lending and investments to underserved borrowers and communities within the former Bremer footprint from 2026 through 2028. This is in addition to the $1.6 billion increase announced in January 2025 related to the Bremer partnership.

The focus on technology is already evident. In 2024, Old National Bancorp introduced a new small business digital banking platform featuring modern money movement capabilities. This existing investment provides a foundation for a targeted FinTech investment in B2B payments, which could create a new, non-traditional revenue stream outside of traditional net interest income.

The current market capitalization as of December 1, 2025, is not explicitly listed, but the Q3 2025 Market Cap was reported as $8.08B. This valuation, coupled with the expected 2025 EPS of $2.15, suggests a fair valuation that supports strategic capital deployment for diversification.

The expansion into Minnesota, North Dakota, and Wisconsin via the Bremer deal already established a presence in new contiguous states, but the push into non-contiguous, high-growth states like Texas or Florida via a small acquisition would represent a true market development/diversification step. The firm is currently focused on organic growth and efficiency post-Bremer, stating they are not actively pursuing M&A deals as of September 2025.

The deployment of capital into community-focused tax credits in 2024 totaled $70 million for low-income housing, historic, and new markets. This internal capability is a strong precursor for forming a dedicated venture capital fund focused on similar projects, aligning with stated community priorities.