Ninety One Group (N91.L): BCG Matrix [Dec-2025 Updated]

Ninety One's portfolio is sharply asymmetric: high-growth Stars in emerging markets equities, Asia Pacific expansion and alternatives are driving AUM and margin upside and deserve continued investment, while South Africa, the fund platform and core fixed‑income cash cows fund dividends and buybacks; the firm must now decide whether to back Question Marks (sustainability, Americas, digital finance) to scale new revenue engines or redeploy capital from Dogs (UK, multi‑asset, legacy long‑only units and small regional offices) to protect returns and sharpen competitive focus-a make‑or‑trim moment that will define its next chapter.

Ninety One Group (N91.L) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Stars

Stars - high-growth, high-market-share business units within Ninety One are concentrated in its Emerging Markets Equity strategies, Asia Pacific Client Group expansion, Alternatives and Specialist Credit, and rebounding Global Equity strategies. These units exhibit strong revenue generation, accelerated AUM growth and above-average fee margins, positioning them as primary engines for future scale and profitability.

Emerging Markets Equity strategies have benefited from a marked revival in investor interest in EM assets. Total group AUM reached a record £152.1 billion as of September 2025, with equities identified as the primary driver of net inflows in H1 FY2026, contributing £2.09 billion in new capital. Investment performance is a differentiator: 68% of Emerging Markets AUM outperformed benchmarks over a one-year period (early 2025). These strategies sustain strong contribution margins within the group's adjusted operating profit margin of 32.1% reported in late 2025.

Asia Pacific Client Group expansion represents a geographic Star for Ninety One. AUM for the region increased 14% to £23.6 billion by March 2025 and further rose to £31.3 billion by September 2025, reflecting sequential six‑month growth of approximately 32.6%. The region outpaced the group's overall six‑month AUM growth rate of 16%. Adjusted operating profit for the Asia Pacific segment grew by 12% to £98.8 million for the half-year ending September 2025, demonstrating strong margin expansion driven by a capital-light, technology-enabled distribution model.

Alternatives and Specialist Credit strategies attracted substantial institutional demand, with net inflows of £637 million during FY2025 and a further £313 million in the subsequent six months. The alternatives asset class grew 21% in AUM in the year ended March 2025 versus total group AUM growth of 4% for the same period. These strategies typically command higher fee margins than traditional long-only products and materially support the group's 32.1% adjusted operating margin. The Sanlam partnership serves as a strategic anchor, with Sanlam acting as a cornerstone investor in international private credit offerings.

Global Equity strategies have rebounded from prior outflows to record £2.1 billion in net inflows by September 2025. Equities now represent 46% of total AUM, with global active products contributing a large share of fee revenue. Long-term performance is a competitive moat: 81% of Global Equity AUM outperformed benchmarks over ten years, which underpins market share defense in the active management space and supported a 15% rise in adjusted earnings per share to 8.4p in late 2025.

Key competitive strengths of these Stars:

• Robust AUM scale: total £152.1bn (Sep 2025) with equities at 46% allocation.
• Strong inflows: equities £2.09bn (H1 FY2026) and global equity £2.1bn (by Sep 2025).
• Regional outperformance: Asia Pacific AUM growth to £31.3bn (+32.6% Mar-Sep 2025).
• High-margin product mix: alternatives AUM +21% (year to Mar 2025) with superior fee profile.
• Persistent investment outperformance: 68% (1-year EM) and 81% (10-year Global Equity).
• Partnership leverage: Sanlam as anchor supports private credit scale and distribution.
• Profitability support: group adjusted operating margin 32.1% and Asia Pacific adjusted profit £98.8m (H1 Sep 2025).

Operational and strategic enablers for sustaining Star status include the firm's capital-light, technology-enabled distribution platform, disciplined active management processes that drive long-term outperformance, and the ability to convert inflows into scalable, higher-margin revenues via alternatives and specialist credit products.

Ninety One Group (N91.L) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Cash Cows

Cash Cows

The South Africa Client Group represents N91's primary cash cow, delivering stable and dominant market share in a mature market. Africa AUM stood at £62.15 billion in September 2025, representing roughly 41% of group AUM. This segment produces consistent cash flows and an adjusted operating profit margin of approximately 32%. The Sanlam transaction is expected to add ~£17 billion in AUM and deepen retail distribution, reinforcing market leadership. N91 acts as a primary active investment manager for major institutional partners in South Africa, supporting a high dividend payout ratio of 79% in 2025 that is largely funded by earnings from this region.

The South African Fund Platform business is a second stable income stream with consistent organic growth and low volatility. AUM increased 19% to >£15.5 billion by September 2025, driven by strong engagement with independent financial advisers. The platform recorded net inflows of £359 million in FY2025 and a further £475 million in the subsequent six months, providing recurring fee income less sensitive to short-term investment performance. Operating cost discipline-reflected in a group compensation ratio of 43.6%-helps retain cash flow. The platform requires low incremental CAPEX and generates high ROI for the group.

• Platform AUM (Sep 2025): >£15.5 billion
• Platform AUM growth (12 months): +19%
• Net inflows FY2025: £359 million
• Net inflows subsequent 6 months: £475 million
• Group compensation ratio: 43.6%

Institutional Fixed Income strategies form another cash-generating pillar, accounting for 24% of total AUM as of March 2025. Despite a challenging interest rate environment earlier in the cycle, the segment recovered with £237 million in net inflows by September 2025. Long-term institutional mandates create a sticky asset base and predictable management fees, supporting the group's average management fee rate of 41.5-44.0 bps. This liquidity supports a £331.2 million cash balance and ongoing share buyback programs.

Emerging Markets (EM) Debt strategies are a high-yielding cash cow leveraging N91's deep expertise. Year-to-date returns on local debt reached 12.3% by mid-2025. EM investors sought real yields that were ~70% higher than developed markets in late 2025, helping to attract capital despite volatility. While short-term flows can be cyclical, long-term strategic allocation to EM debt remains a reliable revenue generator. Proprietary Transition Debt strategies are beginning to scale, adding a growth layer within this cash-generative segment. Operating margins are robust, with the EM debt segment reporting a 32.1% operating margin and disciplined cost management protecting profitability.

Key characteristics across the cash cow segments:

• Stable, high-margin cash generation (operating margins ~32% across major segments).
• Significant AUM concentration in South Africa (£62.15bn, ~41% of group AUM).
• Recurring, "sticky" institutional mandates and platform net inflows (platform +£359m FY2025; +£475m next 6 months).
• Support for shareholder returns via high payout (79% in 2025) and balance sheet liquidity (£331.2m cash).
• Low incremental CAPEX and disciplined compensation ratio (43.6%) that preserve free cash flow.

Ninety One Group (N91.L) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Question Marks

This chapter examines Ninety One Group's 'Dogs' quadrant-business lines and initiatives with low relative market share in low-growth or challenging markets-focusing on sustainability & transition investing, the Americas and European client groups, and early-stage digital finance/AI initiatives.

Sustainability and Transition Investing - early-scale Question Marks with high market potential

Ninety One reported approximately £4.0 billion in sustainable strategies as of March 2025 versus total AUM of £152.1 billion, representing ~2.6% of group AUM. The global transition finance opportunity is estimated at over $3 trillion per year; Ninety One's Emerging Markets Transition Debt and related products remain in pilot or early scale phases and face intense competition and regulatory scrutiny (e.g., UK SDR labels).

The firm's investments include a new digital finance unit plus AI-enabled ESG analytics intended to accelerate scaling. Key risk and performance metrics:

Strategic implications for this Dog-category activity include heavy capex and operating expense allocations to product development, distribution and compliance. Success hinges on converting Question Marks into Stars to capture a projected 'capex supercycle' growth that could outpace global GDP by 2-3 percentage points.

Americas (North American Client Group) - small share in a mature, high-competition market

As of September 2025 the Americas client group held £17.3 billion AUM, about 11% of Ninety One's total AUM. The US economy showed above-trend growth in 2025, yet Ninety One remains a relatively small active manager in a market dominated by large domestic incumbents and a significant shift toward passive and scale-efficient products.

Key challenges and actions:

• Need for differentiated active value proposition versus passive alternatives.
• Material distribution and marketing investment to build institutional relationships.
• Potential margin compression if scale is not achieved.

Europe (excluding UK) Client Group - low-growth region with structural headwinds

European client AUM (ex-UK) stood at £16.7 billion in late 2025, reflecting ~3% year-on-year growth. The regional macro backdrop is described as at a 'standstill' in late 2025, constraining demand growth. Ninety One is targeting growth via fixed income and selective Asian equity strategies for European investors, but faces high distribution costs and regulatory fragmentation across EU member states.

Operational priorities for this Dog-area include optimizing distribution spend, prioritizing higher-margin strategies, and rigorous assessment of ROI for continued capital allocation.

Digital Finance & AI initiatives - internal capabilities classified as early-stage Dogs

Ninety One has designated Information Technology as its largest business expense to support digital finance and AI-driven investment capabilities. The firm reports a corporate margin of 32.1%, indicating operational efficiency, yet the direct ROI and alpha impact of the digital and AI investments remain unproven.

Risks and actions:

• Heavy upfront IT spend with delayed or uncertain returns.
• Need for clear KPIs tying AI initiatives to alpha generation and client retention.
• Benchmarking against peers to avoid stranded technology investments.

Collectively, these activities occupy the Dog/Question Mark area of the BCG matrix for Ninety One: significant strategic importance and market-size potential but currently limited relative market share, slow regional demand (Europe), mature/highly competitive marketplaces (Americas), and unproven internal capability scaling (sustainability, digital/AI). Tactical priorities include rigorous capital allocation, exit/scale criteria for underperforming lines, targeted investment in high-probability scaling plays, and tight measurement of technology ROI to determine whether these initiatives can be repositioned toward Star status.

Ninety One Group (N91.L) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Dogs

Question Marks - Dogs: this chapter addresses business units within Ninety One that exhibit low market growth and low relative market share, effectively operating as 'Dogs' in the BCG framework. These activities consume resources, generate limited cash, and require strategic choices: divest, restructure, or maintain for niche value.

United Kingdom Client Group: The UK client segment is experiencing structural outflows and low growth. Assets under management (AUM) declined by 13% to £21.1 billion by March 2025, primarily driven by portfolio rebalancing among major institutional accounts. The June 2025 Sanlam UK acquisition contributed a one-off £1.9 billion increase in AUM, but organic growth remains negative or stagnant. The UK market shows intense fee pressure and a migration away from active, higher-risk strategies where Ninety One has historically specialised. This segment was a major contributor to the group's total £4.9 billion net outflows in FY2025, reducing its contribution margin and operational leverage in the home market.

Traditional Multi-Asset strategies: Multi-asset capabilities faced persistent redemptions, recording net client withdrawals of £702 million in the half-year to September 2025. Over the prior 12 months, multi-asset AUM grew by only 1%, markedly lagging equities and alternatives. Investors increasingly prefer specialist single-asset 'best-of-breed' managers or lower-cost passive balanced products, pressuring flows into traditional active multi-asset funds. Lower net-new-money and sustained outflows make these strategies candidates for consolidation or restructuring; absent a performance-driven rebound, this line drains distribution and investment resources with limited return on invested capital.

Legacy Long-Only Developed Market strategies: Core global and sustainable equity funds were among the largest sources of net outflows in early 2025. These long-only developed-market strategies compete in commoditised segments dominated by low-cost ETFs and index funds, eroding active share and pricing power. Group average management fee rates declined to 41.5 basis points by late 2025, reflecting downward fee pressure attributable in part to these legacy products. High fixed research and personnel costs associated with these strategies contrast with weak net inflows; management has identified eight specific funds for remediation or strategic action.

Small-scale, non-core regional distribution offices: Certain smaller regional distribution hubs contribute minimal AUM while carrying disproportionate overhead. The firm's total headcount stood at 1,266 with operating expenses rising 3% to £208.7 million in late 2025, pressuring operating margin targets. With an overall operating margin of 32.1%, management is reviewing regional offices that do not support high-growth Asia Pacific or stable Africa segments. These tail activities often lack scale to be profitable amid compressing fees, and rationalisation is under active consideration to preserve a lean, capital-light model.

Operational and portfolio implications:

• Cost rationalisation targets: reduce non-core regional headcount and overhead to protect operating margin (current 32.1%).
• Fund remediation: review and restructure eight underperforming legacy funds; consider mergers, fee realignment, or closures.
• Product repositioning: shift multi-asset offerings toward specialist, outcome-oriented or lower-cost wrappers to compete with passive and best-of-breed strategies.
• Home market strategy: reassess UK distribution model post-Sanlam acquisition to prioritise profitable institutional mandates and streamline retail exposure.

Key metrics for monitoring: AUM trends by segment (monthly), net flows (quarterly), active share and performance relative to passive benchmarks (rolling 1/3/5-year), average management fee (bps), regional office ROI, and operating expense trajectory versus revenue to protect operating margin.