TBC Bank Group PLC (TBCG.L): BCG Matrix [Dec-2025 Updated]

TBC Bank's portfolio is a tale of digital stars-rapidly scaling Uzbek banking and payments (backed by a $200m bond and explosive user growth), and digitally transformed Georgian retail lending-fueling growth while mature Georgian cash cows (corporate/MSME, deposits and insurance) generate the steady cash and dividends/share buybacks that bankroll expansion; targeted bets (Uzbek MSME, international digital services and Sug'urta insurance) need heavy investment to tip into stars, while legacy branches, terminals and leasing are low-growth drains the group is quietly deprioritizing-read on to see how management must allocate capital to turn question marks into the next winners.

TBC Bank Group PLC (TBCG.L) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Stars

Stars

TBC Uzbekistan digital banking ecosystem expansion represents a clear 'Star' within the Group: rapid market growth combined with a rising relative market share and strong profitability metrics underpin its classification. Operating income surged 87% year-on-year to 2.416 trillion soums as of September 2025. The unit holds a 5.1% market share in retail loans and a 4.1% share in retail deposits in a fast-expanding Uzbek market. The segment accounts for 20% of Group operating income and 54% of the Group's unsecured consumer loans as of mid-2025. Scale metrics include 21.8 million unique registered users and a 20.0% return on equity (ROE). A $200 million bond issuance is allocated to accelerate growth. Gross loan portfolio increased 105% year-on-year to $905 million by June 2025.

• Key growth drivers: digital onboarding, unsecured consumer lending scale, ecosystem network effects, targeted bond-financed expansion.
• Performance levers: product cross-selling within 21.8M user base, data-driven credit underwriting, fee income from ancillary services.

Payme digital payments and merchant services is a high-growth 'Star' sub-business within the Uzbekistan ecosystem, driving scale and non-interest income. Active merchants rose 90% year-on-year to 13.2 thousand by late 2025. The platform materially contributed to a 28% increase in unique ecosystem users for the Group. In September 2025, more than 10 thousand partners used QR code payments. Non-interest income at the Group level increased 38% in early 2025, supported by Payme's transaction volumes. Integration with the acquired BILLZ platform strengthens merchant acquisition, value-added services, and merchant cross-sell opportunities.

• Revenue model: merchant fees, commission on QR transactions, value-added merchant services via BILLZ.
• Network effects: rising merchant count increases transaction density and ARPU; consumer payment stickiness improves cross-sell.

TBC Georgia digital retail lending services are a 'Star' in a mature market, driven by aggressive digital migration and product innovation. As of June 2025, 81% of consumer loans were issued fully digitally, a 13 percentage-point YoY increase in digital penetration. The Georgian segment holds a 37.8% market share in total loans and delivered a 23.9% ROE for H1 2025. Digital monthly active users reached a 64% penetration rate, underpinning a 25% increase in total operating income for Q1 2025. The TBC Card launch materially increased digital sales and credit origination efficiency, preserving profitability against fintech competition.

• Value drivers: digital origination efficiency, high ROE, large loan market share, customer retention via card and app ecosystem.
• Operational priorities: maintain digital UX leadership, protect pricing power against fintechs, scale unsecured lending prudently.

TBC Bank Group PLC (TBCG.L) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Cash Cows

TBC Georgia corporate and MSME banking TBC Bank's traditional corporate and MSME operations in Georgia function as the primary cash cow, maintaining a dominant 38.0% market share in loans as of March 2025. This segment provides the stable capital required for international expansion, contributing to a Group net profit of GEL 1.033 billion for the first nine months of 2025. The Georgian franchise delivers a consistently high return on equity of 23.9%, well above the 23% strategic target set for the year. With customer deposits in Georgia reaching GEL 22.0 billion, the unit generates significant cash flow to support a GEL 75 million share buyback program. Low relative growth in the mature Georgian market is offset by a stable 38.1% market share in deposits and a 3.8% return on assets.

TBC Georgia retail deposit and wealth management The retail deposit business in Georgia remains a cornerstone cash cow, holding a steady 38.1% market share as of June 2025. This segment's deposit portfolio grew by 11% year-on-year on a constant currency basis, reaching GEL 22.0 billion to provide a low-cost funding base. The stability of this unit allowed the Board to declare a quarterly dividend of GEL 1.75 per share in the third quarter of 2025. High market maturity in Georgia limits rapid expansion, yet the segment's 24.4% return on equity in Q3 2025 demonstrates exceptional cash generation. This unit's efficiency is reflected in the Group's stable cost-to-income ratio of 37.2%, which has been maintained despite inflationary pressures.

• Deposit market share (Jun 2025): 38.1%
• Deposit growth (YoY, constant currency): 11%
• Total retail deposits: GEL 22.0 billion
• ROE (Q3 2025): 24.4%
• Cost-to-income ratio (Group, maintained): 37.2%
• Dividend declared (Q3 2025): GEL 1.75 per share

TBC Insurance Georgian market operations TBC Insurance maintains a strong and stable position in the Georgian insurance market, serving as a reliable cash cow for the Group. The unit achieved a 3% year-on-year profit increase within the Georgian operations, contributing to the overall GEL 332 million net profit from the home market in Q2 2025. While the Georgian insurance market is relatively mature, the unit benefits from a high return on equity and synergy with the bank's retail customer base. It provides steady non-interest income that helps diversify the Group's revenue streams beyond traditional lending. The completion of the TBC Insurance rollout in Uzbekistan further leverages this established expertise to capture new value.

• Profit growth (Georgian operations, YoY): 3%
• Contribution to home market net profit (Q2 2025): Part of GEL 332 million
• Role: Steady non-interest income and cross-sell synergy with retail banking
• International rollout: TBC Insurance expansion completed in Uzbekistan

TBC Bank Group PLC (TBCG.L) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Question Marks

TBC Bank Group's "Dogs" chapter is focused on Question Marks - high-growth but currently low-relative-market-share units that require heavy investment to determine whether they can become Stars or should be divested. The three primary question-mark businesses in 2025 are: TBC Uzbekistan MSME & business banking, TBC Digital's international/non-resident services, and TBC Sug'urta (digital insurance in Uzbekistan). Each is characterized below with available metrics, investment needs and key operational risks.

Summary metrics for the three question-mark units:

TBC Uzbekistan MSME & business banking - specifics and operating dynamics:

The MSME lending franchise recorded a 34% quarter-on-quarter increase in its business loan portfolio in 2025 after the Group acquired a majority stake in the BILLZ SaaS platform. Current Uzbek revenue is heavily skewed: unsecured consumer loans represent 54% of the Group's Uzbek loan book, underscoring the need to diversify into MSME and business banking. Market share in the business banking sector remains low relative to retail; the unit is capital- and talent-intensive and sits squarely in an early-investment phase.

• Key metrics: +34% QoQ business loan growth (2025); Uzbek unsecured consumer loans = 54% of local portfolio.
• Investment needs: integration costs for BILLZ, digital lending infrastructure, underwriting teams, risk models for MSME credit.
• Success factors: embed BILLZ to originate and underwrite merchant credit, digitize onboarding, lower cost-to-serve for small businesses.
• Principal risk: slow merchant adoption, elevated credit losses in an untested portfolio, regulatory or operational integration delays.

TBC Digital - international expansion & non-resident services - specifics and operating dynamics:

TBC Digital (the holding for Uzbek operations) opened services to non-residents in 2025 to capture high-growth segments such as foreign specialists, students and the diaspora. Unique ecosystem users grew by 28% YoY, but the specific revenue and profit contribution from non-resident services remain nascent and unproven. The unit is backed by a supervisory board of global fintech leaders, indicating strategic importance and sustained investment.

• Key metrics: ecosystem users +28% YoY; non-resident service launch in 2025; ROI unproven as of late 2025.
• Investment needs: compliance frameworks for cross-border KYC/AML; payments rails; localized product development and customer support.
• Success factors: scalable digital onboarding for foreigners, partnerships with global payroll/platforms, competitive FX and remittance pricing.
• Principal risk: regulatory friction across jurisdictions, low monetization per user during early adoption, potential elevated onboarding costs.

TBC Sug'urta (digital insurance Uzbekistan) - specifics and operating dynamics:

TBC Sug'urta operates within the Group's 21.8 million user ecosystem and leverages traffic to commercialize insurance products in Uzbekistan. The market has vast untapped potential but currently suffers low insurance penetration and limited consumer awareness. The unit follows the Group's Georgian insurance playbook but remains early-stage in Uzbekistan; its current ROE is below the 20% ROE achieved by the mature Uzbek digital bank and requires ongoing marketing and product development to scale.

• Key metrics: addressable ecosystem = 21.8 million users; market penetration currently low; ROE below 20% (early-stage).
• Investment needs: customer education campaigns, modular insurance products, digital claims and pricing engines, partnerships with local distributors.
• Success factors: convert ecosystem traffic into policyholders, use data from banking/payments to price risk, bundle insurance with merchant and payroll solutions.
• Principal risk: slow conversion, competition from state and incumbent insurers, regulatory limits on product types or distribution.

TBC Bank Group PLC (TBCG.L) - BCG Matrix Analysis: Dogs

TBC Georgia physical branch and legacy infrastructure increasingly maps to the 'Dog' quadrant: low market growth and weak relative advantage. The Group maintains ~38% share of the Georgian retail banking market, but channel shift dynamics have reduced the strategic importance of branches - 81% of consumer loans were originated via digital channels by mid-2025. Branch-related fixed and variable costs remain high (branch staffing, security, property CAPEX and maintenance), while returns lag digital operations: the Group's digital-only Uzbek operations show an adjusted ROE of 26.6%, materially higher than legacy-branch returns. Management targets 7.0 million digital monthly active users (MAU) group-wide, signaling continued deprioritization of physical footprints. These branch assets exhibit low growth, high operating leverage and limited upside absent major transformation or repurposing.

TBC Pay physical terminal network in Georgia behaves as a 'Dog' due to shrinking end-market growth and substitution by mobile payments. Georgia's digital engagement reached 64% MAU penetration in 2025, and mobile wallets and app-based payment providers (e.g., Payme, TBC Card in-app) increasingly cannibalize self-service terminal volumes. Terminal ownership entails recurring hardware maintenance, cash collection/logistics costs and terminal replacement CAPEX, producing thin margins against declining transaction volumes. The segment provides transactional coverage and retail convenience but lacks the high-growth trajectory of the Group's fintech stars and receives limited strategic priority in 2025 disclosures.

TBC Leasing - specialized equipment financing - fits the 'Dog' profile: a stable but low-growth, low-share unit relative to core retail banking and digital platforms. The leasing portfolio delivers predictable cashflows but lower ROI than core Georgian banking (24.4% ROE late 2025) and materially below Uzbek digital returns. With Group CAPEX redirected toward a $200 million Uzbek expansion and digital platform scaling, leasing sees constrained reinvestment, limiting growth and product innovation.

Comparative metrics for identified 'Dog' units (illustrative, FY-to-mid-2025 where applicable):

Immediate operational facts and drivers:

• Digital origination share for consumer loans: 81% by mid-2025.
• Group digital MAU target: 7,000,000 users.
• Georgia MAU digital penetration: 64% in 2025.
• Georgian banking ROE (late 2025): ~24.4% vs Uzbek adjusted ROE: 26.6%.
• Group CAPEX reallocation: ~$200 million committed to Uzbekistan expansion (digital-led).

Operational implications and near-term actions implied by the 'Dog' classification:

• Accelerate branch footprint optimisation: consolidate, repurpose or convert select branches to advisory/digital hubs to reduce fixed costs.
• Rationalise TBC Pay terminal network: reduce low-utilisation terminals, shift to merchant POS partnerships and mobile-first acceptance to cut logistics and cash-handling costs.
• Limit incremental capital to TBC Leasing while preserving servicing quality; consider portfolio sell-downs, securitisation or third-party partnerships to free capital for digital investments.
• Redeploy cost savings into customer acquisition and product development for high-growth digital segments in Uzbekistan and fintech platforms to maximise ROIC.