United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY): SWOT Analysis [Nov-2025 Updated]

You're looking at United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY) right now, and what you see is a classic high-risk, high-reward setup. They've secured a massive multi-year supply contract with the DLA valued up to $245 million, which has fueled a 182% year-over-year revenue increase to $26.23 million through Q3 2025. But here's the rub: despite that explosive growth, they still reported a year-to-date net loss of $4.05 million, suggesting that scaling their sole North American operation is defintely a messy business. We need to look closely at how they turn that revenue into profit.

United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY) - SWOT Analysis: Strengths

Sole North American Supplier of Critical Military-Grade Antimony

The most significant strength for United States Antimony Corporation is its indispensable role in the U.S. defense supply chain. The company is the sole North American supplier of military-grade antimony trisulfide approved by the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA). This status is a massive competitive moat, especially given the geopolitical focus on securing domestic supply chains for critical minerals like antimony, which is essential for primer ignitions in ammunition, tracer bullets, and other ordnance.

This strategic position has translated into a massive, long-term contract win. In September 2025, United States Antimony Corporation was awarded an Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) sole-source contract with the DLA for up to $245 Million over five years. This contract is for antimony metal ingots to replenish the National Defense Stockpile (NDS). To put that in perspective, the company's total revenue for 2024 was only $14.9 million, making this new contract approximately 16 times that amount. The first delivery order under this contract was for approximately $10 Million, covering 315,000 lbs of antimony metal ingots.

• Secures long-term government revenue.
• Mitigates demand risk significantly.
• Positions the company as a national strategic asset.

Strong Revenue Growth in 2025

The company is experiencing explosive top-line growth in the 2025 fiscal year, driven largely by high antimony prices and increased sales volume. For the first nine months ended September 30, 2025, total revenue surged to $26.23 million. This represents a phenomenal 182% year-over-year increase compared to the $9.31 million reported in the first nine months of 2024.

The core Antimony business is the main driver, with antimony sales alone reaching $23.57 million for the nine-month period, a 235% increase over the prior year. Management has narrowed its full-year 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $40 Million to $43 Million, a clear sign of confidence in the near-term trajectory. Here's the quick math on the nine-month performance:

Robust Balance Sheet with Minimal Debt

United States Antimony Corporation maintains a fortress balance sheet, a critical advantage in a capital-intensive industry like mining and smelting. As of September 30, 2025, the company held a substantial amount of cash and marketable securities (federal bonds) totaling $38.5 million. This strong liquidity position provides the capital needed for ongoing expansion projects in Montana and Alaska without relying heavily on external financing.

Plus, the company has minimal long-term debt, which is a defintely a positive sign of financial health. Total debt is reported to be only around $229,000. This low leverage minimizes financial risk and frees up cash flow that would otherwise be dedicated to interest payments, giving the company flexibility to pursue new strategic acquisitions or accelerate its production capacity expansion plans.

Vertically Integrated Operations

The company is one of the few fully vertically integrated antimony producers outside of China and Russia. This means United States Antimony Corporation controls the entire value chain, from raw material extraction to finished product sales. Their operations span mining, transportation, milling, smelting, and sales.

This vertical integration is a powerful operational strength. It provides better control over quality, reduces supply chain risk, and, most importantly, eliminates substantial transportation and logistics costs associated with processing imported ore. The company operates North America's only two antimony smelters, located in Thompson Falls, Montana, and Madero, Mexico. Controlling these key assets allows them to capture a higher margin on the final product, especially as they ramp up production from their domestic mining claims in Montana and Alaska.

United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY) - SWOT Analysis: Weaknesses

You're looking at United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY) and seeing massive revenue growth, but the bottom line still looks concerning. The primary weakness here is a persistent lack of net profitability, which is masking strong operational performance due to heavy non-cash charges and creating significant stock volatility. This is a classic case of a growth company's accounting outpacing its immediate cash generation.

Reported a year-to-date net loss of $4.05 million through Q3 2025, despite strong sales

Honesty, the headline number is a problem: United States Antimony Corporation reported a consolidated net loss of $4.05 million for the nine months ended September 30, 2025. This is a significant widening from the net loss of $847,000 in the corresponding period of the prior year. The quick math shows that despite sales for the first nine months of 2025 surging to $26.23 million-a 182% increase year-over-year-the company is still losing money at a faster rate. This disconnect between the top line and the net income is a red flag for investors focused purely on profitability metrics.

The core issue is that the massive revenue growth, driven by a 235% increase in antimony sales to $23.57 million, isn't translating into positive net income yet. It's a cash flow story, not a sales story.

Significant portion of the net loss is due to non-cash expenses, totaling $5.18 million in the first nine months of 2025

To be fair, the net loss isn't all operational. The nine-month net loss of $4.05 million included a substantial $5.18 million in non-cash expenses. This is a critical nuance, as non-cash expenses (like depreciation and stock-based compensation) don't actually drain the company's cash reserves. The largest component of this was $4.69 million in non-cash share-based compensation expense, related to stock grants for management and directors. This expense, while necessary for incentivizing leadership, artificially inflates the reported net loss and makes the company look less profitable than its core operations might suggest.

Here's the quick math on the non-cash impact:

Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst expectations in Q2 2025, suggesting execution risks in scaling operations

The company's Q2 2025 earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.00, missing the analyst consensus estimate of $0.017 per share. While revenue of $10.53 million slightly beat estimates, the EPS miss signals that the execution risk in scaling operations is real. When a company is in an aggressive expansion phase-like United States Antimony Corporation is with its Thompson Falls smelter upgrades and new mining acquisitions-it's defintely vulnerable to operational hiccups that eat into profitability.

The Q2 miss, despite a strong top line, highlights a few key execution challenges:

• Suboptimum antimony ore quality from a third-party supplier.
• A lack of operating personnel at the Thompson Falls smelter.
• The need for ongoing remediation of disclosure controls, which management admitted were 'not effective' as of the Q3 2025 report.

These issues create uncertainty around the company's ability to hit its future high-growth targets without further cost overruns.

Stock exhibits high volatility, with a recent decline of 23.34% over a ten-day period in November 2025

The stock's price action reflects the market's skepticism about the company's near-term path to cash flow positivity. The stock exhibits very high volatility, with a beta of -2.06, which means it tends to move significantly against the market. More recently, the stock price declined by a sharp 23.34% over a ten-day trading period leading up to November 24, 2025. This kind of steep drop, which signals a lack of confidence among traders, is a major weakness for any publicly traded company.

This high volatility, coupled with a Price-to-Sales (P/S) ratio of 22.4-significantly above its historical median-indicates that the stock may be overvalued relative to its current sales and is highly susceptible to negative news cycles or commodity price softness. The market is punishing the stock for its execution risks and the non-cash-heavy net loss.

Next Step: Finance: Isolate and track the cash flow from operations (CFO) for Q4 2025 to see if the $5.18 million in non-cash charges is truly shielding a positive operational cash picture.

United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY) - SWOT Analysis: Opportunities

The opportunities for United States Antimony Corporation are directly tied to the geopolitical shift toward securing domestic supply chains for critical minerals, a trend that has fundamentally re-rated the company's strategic value in 2025. The core opportunity is leveraging its sole-source position in the U.S. antimony market against a backdrop of historic price surges and massive government demand.

Secured a Multi-Year Supply Contract (IDIQ) with the DLA Valued up to $245 Million

The most significant near-term opportunity is the five-year, sole-source Indefinite Delivery Indefinite Quantity (IDIQ) contract with the U.S. Defense Logistics Agency (DLA), announced in September 2025, which is valued at up to $245 million. This is a game-changer. To put that in perspective, this contract ceiling is about 17 times the company's total revenue of $14.9 million reported for the 2024 fiscal year.

This contract provides United States Antimony Corporation with a stable, high-margin revenue base and clear demand visibility for years, a crucial factor in financing further expansion. The initial delivery order under this agreement was for $10 million of antimony metal ingots, earmarked for the National Defense Stockpile. This solidifies the company's role as the exclusive North American supplier approved by the DLA for military-grade antimony primers.

Antimony Prices Have Surged to a High of US$51,500 per Tonne in 2025 Due to Constrained Global Supply

The global market dynamics for antimony are creating a massive tailwind. Antimony prices surged to a high of US$51,500 per tonne in 2025, a dramatic increase driven by severe supply constraints. Honestly, this is one of the hottest strategic metals right now.

This price explosion is a direct result of China, the world's dominant producer, implementing stricter environmental regulations and export restrictions, which have significantly curtailed global supply. China's domestic policies and geopolitical instability in other key producing regions like Russia and Myanmar have intensified the shortage. For a domestic producer like United States Antimony Corporation, this high-price environment means substantially higher revenue per unit of output and much stronger gross margins, especially as they move toward self-mined material.

• Antimony is a critical component in over 200 types of U.S. Department of Defense ammunition.
• Global antimony production dropped to 83,000 tonnes in 2023, exacerbating the supply crunch.
• The price surge is a direct response to China's export controls and a global push for supply chain security.

Thompson Falls Smelter Expansion is Expected to Increase Output Fivefold, From 100 to 500 Tons per Month

The company is taking clear action to capitalize on the demand. The expansion of the Thompson Falls, Montana smelter, the only operational antimony smelter in the U.S., is a strategic capacity increase. The project, which is budgeted at under $15 million, is expected to increase the Thompson Falls facility's output to over 300 tons per month-a six-fold rise from its previous level of around 100 tons per month.

Here's the quick math: The company's total North American production capacity, including the Thompson Falls expansion and the Madero Smelter in Mexico, is targeted to reach 500 tons per month by the end of 2025. This fivefold increase in total capacity is defintely necessary to meet the DLA contract and other industrial demand.

Strategic Diversification into Other Critical Minerals Like Tungsten and Cobalt Through New North American Claims

United States Antimony Corporation is not just an antimony play anymore. The strategic diversification into other critical minerals is a smart move to mitigate single-commodity risk and capture the broader North American push for mineral independence. The company now holds significant claims for tungsten and cobalt, both essential for defense and high-tech applications.

In June 2025, the company acquired the Fostung Tungsten Properties in Ontario, Canada, for a purchase price of $5 million. This property is now valued at over $100 million, demonstrating a massive return on the initial investment and highlighting the scarcity of domestic tungsten sources. There has been no commercial production of tungsten concentrates in the U.S. or Canada since 2016, so this acquisition provides a clear path to market leadership in another critical mineral. They also hold nearly 500 exploration claims for cobalt in Ontario, Canada.

Finance: Accelerate the Thompson Falls expansion timeline to be fully operational by January 2026 to start fulfilling the DLA contract's full potential.

United States Antimony Corporation (UAMY) - SWOT Analysis: Threats

Operational Delays Push Back New Supply Timelines

You are betting heavily on domestic production to cut your reliance on foreign ore, but the timeline for new supply keeps shifting. The biggest near-term threat here is the persistent operational drag from permitting issues, particularly in Alaska. What started as an anticipated August 2025 start for the Alaska antimony supply was first pushed to September 2025 due to regulatory and local citizen opposition.

Now, the latest guidance suggests the start of mining in Alaska may be delayed until the second quarter of 2026. That's a significant pushback that impacts your ability to feed the Thompson Falls smelter with lower-cost, high-margin domestic ore. Honestly, delays like this force you to keep sourcing more expensive, and sometimes lower-quality, international feedstock, which squeezes your margins.

Plus, you faced processing issues with an Australian supplier's material earlier in 2025, as a shipment of 255-ton loads was out of spec with above-contracted amounts of arsenic. This highlights that even when you secure international supply, quality control remains a real, tangible risk.

Antimony's Extreme Price Volatility

Your primary revenue source is tied to antimony, which is a cyclical commodity prone to wild price swings. This volatility is a double-edged sword: while high prices boost revenue, the market can turn sharply, creating inventory risk and making long-term planning defintely harder. The first half of 2025 showed just how extreme this can be.

Here's the quick math on the 2025 price rollercoaster for SMM No. 1 antimony ingot:

• Started the year at 140,000 yuan/mt.
• Surged to 238,000 yuan/mt by late April (a 70% increase).
• Fell back to 186,500 yuan/mt by the end of June.

By November 2025, prices were still elevated, soaring to around $50,000 per ton, which is about 10 times the five-year average. This spike is great for current revenue, but it's a sign of a highly stressed market that could correct sharply if new supply hits or demand softens.

Narrowed 2025 Revenue Guidance

The market has already reacted to these operational constraints and market uncertainties. Following the Q3 2025 earnings report, your annual revenue forecast was lowered. This is a clear signal that the street is pricing in the delays and processing hurdles.

The full-year 2025 revenue guidance was narrowed to $40 million-$43 million, down from a prior expectation of $46.4 million. This reduction reflects a challenging Q3, where quarterly revenue of $8.7 million fell short of the anticipated $12.9 million. This miss suggests that even with high commodity prices, production and supply chain execution are struggling to keep pace with earlier projections.

Geopolitical Risks from Major Producers

Despite your push for domestic supply, the global antimony market is still dominated by a few players, and that concentration is a massive geopolitical risk. The World Economic Forum warned on November 13, 2025, that over 90% of global antimony mine production is concentrated in just three countries: China, Russia, and Tajikistan.

China has already demonstrated its willingness to use this dominance as leverage, imposing export restrictions in August 2024 and then banning all antimony exports to the US in December 2024. This is a direct threat to your ability to source raw materials, even as you ramp up domestic mining. The US imports roughly 20,000 to 25,000 tonnes of antimony each year, mostly sourced from China, which underscores the supply gap you are trying to fill.

The following table illustrates the extreme concentration of the global antimony supply chain, a vulnerability United States Antimony Corporation is trying to mitigate:

Next Step: Operations: Conduct a deep-dive review of the Alaska permitting process, specifically identifying the local citizen opposition points, and draft a revised, conservative supply-in-hand schedule for the Thompson Falls smelter by the end of the year.