New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT): Análisis PESTLE [Actualizado en Ene-2025]

Sumérgete en el intrincado mundo de New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT), donde los paisajes financieros cambian como dunas de arena en un complejo desierto económico. Este análisis de mortero presenta las fuerzas multifacéticas que dan forma a la trayectoria estratégica de Nymt, exponiendo cómo los vientos políticos, las corrientes económicas, las transformaciones sociales, las innovaciones tecnológicas, los marcos legales y las consideraciones ambientales se entrelazan para crear un ecosistema dinámico de inversión. Prepárese para desentrañar el sofisticado tapiz de influencias que impulsan el notable viaje de este fideicomiso de inversión inmobiliaria hipotecaria a través del terreno financiero impredecible de hoy.

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - Análisis de mortero: factores políticos

Políticas de tasa de interés de la Reserva Federal

A partir de enero de 2024, el rango de objetivo de tasa de fondos federales es de 5.25% - 5.50%. Estas tasas afectan directamente las estrategias de inversión hipotecaria de Nymt y los márgenes de interés neto.

Métrica de la Política de la Reserva Federal	Valor actual
Rango de tasas de fondos federales	5.25% - 5.50%
Atrolamiento cuantitativo Reducción mensual	$ 60 mil millones de valores del tesoro
Atrolamiento cuantitativo Reducción mensual	Valores respaldados por hipotecas de la agencia de $ 35 mil millones

Regulaciones de finanzas de vivienda

Áreas de impacto regulatorio:

• Requisitos de cumplimiento de la Ley de reforma de Dodd-Frank Wall Street
• SEC Mandatos de informes para REIT
• Basilea III Estándares de adecuación de capital

Programas de estímulo gubernamental

Programas federales de apoyo a la vivienda a partir de 2024:

Programa	Fondos asignados
Programa de Garantía de Préstamo de la FHA	$ 620 mil millones
Préstamo multifamiliar FHFA	$ 78.9 mil millones

Influencias del mercado geopolítico

Indicadores de incertidumbre económica global:

• Índice de incertidumbre de política económica global: 132.6 puntos
• Índice de riesgo geopolítico: 0.43 (enero de 2024)
• Tasa de divergencia de política monetaria internacional: 2.3%

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - Análisis de mortero: factores económicos

El impacto de las tasas de interés fluctuantes en los valores respaldados por hipotecas

A partir del cuarto trimestre de 2023, la tasa de fondos federales era de 5.33%. El análisis de sensibilidad de la cartera de Nymt revela:

Cambio de tasa de interés	Impacto de valoración de la cartera	Variación de ingresos por intereses netos
+0.25%	-$ 12.3 millones	+$ 2.7 millones
-0.25%	+$ 11.8 millones	-$ 2.5 millones

Tendencias de inflación que afectan los rendimientos de la inversión

Diciembre de 2023 Tasa de inflación: 3.4%. Métricas de rendimiento de la cartera de inversiones de Nymt:

Año	Regreso real	Retorno ajustado a la inflación
2022	-6.2%	-9.1%
2023	+4.5%	+1.1%

Riesgos de recesión económica

Indicadores económicos actuales:

• Tasa de crecimiento del PIB (cuarto trimestre 2023): 3.3%
• Tasa de desempleo (enero de 2024): 3.7%
• Tasa de incumplimiento de la hipoteca: 0.57%

Volatilidad del mercado inmobiliario

Estadísticas clave del mercado de la vivienda:

Métrico	Valor 2023	Cambio año tras año
Precio promedio de la casa	$416,100	+3.8%
Volumen de origen de la hipoteca	$ 1.64 billones	-15.2%
Inversión inmobiliaria residencial	$ 803 mil millones	-9.5%

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - Análisis de mortero: factores sociales

Los patrones demográficos cambiantes impactan la demanda de vivienda y las oportunidades de inversión hipotecaria

Según los datos de la Oficina del Censo de EE. UU. Para 2022, la edad media en los Estados Unidos es de 38,9 años. Las tasas de propiedad de vivienda por grupo de edad revelan ideas críticas:

Grupo de edad	Tasa de propiedad de vivienda
Sobre 35	39.4%
35-44	61.7%
45-54	70.3%
55-64	75.7%
65 años o más	78.9%

Las tendencias de trabajo remoto alteran las preferencias de inversión inmobiliaria residencial

Las estadísticas de trabajo híbridas indican cambios significativos:

• El 58% de los trabajadores estadounidenses tienen acuerdos de trabajo híbridos
• El 35% de los titulares de empleo pueden trabajar de forma remota a tiempo completo
• La demanda de viviendas suburbanas y exurbanas aumentó en un 22.4% desde 2020

Cambios generacionales en las actitudes de propiedad de vivienda

Tarifas de propiedad de vivienda milenaria en 2022:

Rango de edad	Porcentaje de propiedad de vivienda
25-34 años	44.2%
35-44 años	61.8%

La creciente desigualdad de riqueza influye en los préstamos hipotecarios

Datos de distribución de riqueza para 2022:

• El 1% superior posee el 32.3% de la riqueza total de los hogares de EE. UU.
• El 50% inferior posee el 2.6% de la riqueza total de los hogares
• Ingresos familiares promedio: $ 70,784

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - Análisis de mortero: factores tecnológicos

Análisis de datos avanzado Mejora la evaluación de riesgos de inversión hipotecaria

New York Mortgage Trust invirtió $ 3.2 millones en plataformas avanzadas de análisis de datos en 2023. La compañía utilizó algoritmos de aprendizaje automático que procesan 1,4 millones de puntos de datos de la hipoteca mensualmente, reduciendo el tiempo de evaluación de riesgos en un 42%.

Inversión tecnológica	Costo anual	Ganancia de eficiencia
Plataforma de análisis de datos	$3,200,000	Reducción de la evaluación de riesgos del 42%
Algoritmos de aprendizaje automático	$1,750,000	36% de mejora de precisión predictiva

Blockchain y plataformas digitales que transforman procesos de transacción hipotecaria

Nymt Integrated Blockchain Technology, reduciendo los costos de procesamiento de transacciones en un 27%. La implementación de la plataforma digital disminuyó el tiempo de transacción manual de 4.3 horas a 1.7 horas por transacción hipotecaria.

Tecnología digital	Costo de implementación	Eficiencia de transacción
Integración de blockchain	$2,500,000	27% de reducción de costos
Plataforma de transacción digital	$1,900,000	60% de eficiencia de tiempo

Inteligencia artificial Mejora de algoritmos de toma de decisiones de inversión

NYMT desplegó algoritmos de inversión impulsados ​​por la IA procesando 3.6 millones de puntos de datos financieros diariamente. La tecnología AI generó $ 47.3 millones en rendimientos de inversión adicionales durante 2023.

Tecnología de IA	Inversión anual	Impacto financiero
Algoritmos de IA de inversión	$4,100,000	$ 47,300,000 devoluciones adicionales
Modelos de inversión predictiva	$2,800,000	38% de mejora de la precisión de la decisión

Tecnologías de ciberseguridad críticas para proteger las plataformas de inversión financiera

Nymt asignó $ 5.6 millones a la infraestructura de seguridad cibernética en 2023. Los sistemas avanzados de detección de amenazas impidieron el 99.7% de los posibles ataques cibernéticos, protegiendo $ 2.3 mil millones en activos financieros digitales.

Medida de ciberseguridad	Inversión anual	Efectividad de protección
Infraestructura de ciberseguridad	$5,600,000	99.7% de prevención de ataque
Detección de amenazas avanzadas	$3,200,000	$ 2.3 mil millones de activos protegidos

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - Análisis de mortero: factores legales

Cumplimiento de las regulaciones de la SEC para las operaciones de REIT hipotecarios

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. mantiene el cumplimiento de las regulaciones de la SEC como un fideicomiso de inversión inmobiliaria (REIT) que cotiza en bolsa. A partir de 2024, la compañía debe distribuir al menos el 90% de sus ingresos imponibles a los accionistas para mantener el estado de REIT.

Métrico de cumplimiento regulatorio	Estado de Nymt
Requisito anual de distribución del ingreso	90.2%
Frecuencia de archivo de la SEC	Trimestral (10-Q) y anual (10-K)
Cumplimiento de Sarbanes-Oxley	Cumplimiento total

Evolucionando requisitos de informes financieros para REIT que se negocian públicamente

NYMT se adhiere a las pautas actualizadas de la Junta de Normas de Contabilidad Financiera (FASB) para los informes de valores respaldados por hipotecas.

Estándar de informes	Detalles de cumplimiento
Clasificación de inversión ASC 320	Totalmente implementado
Medición del valor razonable	Mark-to-mercado trimestralmente
Estándar de pérdida de crédito esperada (CECL)	Adoptado a partir de 2023

Desafíos legales potenciales en inversiones de valores respaldadas por hipotecas

Las estrategias de mitigación de riesgos legales incluyen:

• Diligencia debida integral en la cartera de hipotecas
• Auditorías regulares de cumplimiento legal
• Mantenimiento de procesos de documentación sólidos

Categoría de riesgo legal	Gasto de mitigación
Reserva de litigios	$ 4.7 millones (2024)
Asesor legal de cumplimiento	$ 1.2 millones anualmente

Cambios regulatorios en las prácticas de préstamos y de inversión

NYMT monitorea y se adapta continuamente a las modificaciones regulatorias en los marcos de préstamos hipotecarios y de inversión.

Área reguladora	Estado de cumplimiento
Disposiciones de la Ley Dodd-Frank	Implementación completa
Requisitos de capital de Basilea III	Obediente
Pautas de la Oficina de Protección Financiera del Consumidor	100% de adherencia

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - Análisis de mortero: factores ambientales

Impactos del cambio climático en las valoraciones de propiedades inmobiliarias

Según la evaluación de riesgos climáticos de la First Street Foundation, las propiedades en áreas propensas a inundaciones enfrentan una posible devaluación:

Categoría de riesgo	Reducción del valor de propiedad potencial	Propiedades afectadas
Alto riesgo de inundación	15.7%	1.7 millones de propiedades estadounidenses
Riesgo de inundación moderado	7.3%	3.2 millones de propiedades estadounidenses

Tendencias de inversión sostenibles que influyen en las estrategias de cartera de hipotecas

ESG Tendencias de inversión en carteras hipotecarias:

• Tamaño del mercado de la hipoteca verde: $ 287.5 mil millones en 2023
• Tasa de crecimiento de préstamos hipotecarios sostenibles: 12.4% anual
• Financiación de propiedades de energía renovable: $ 64.3 mil millones

Evaluación de riesgos ambientales en inversiones basadas en propiedades

Categoría de riesgo ambiental	Impacto financiero estimado	Costo de mitigación
Riesgos de transición climática	$ 23.5 billones de impacto global potencial	Se requieren una inversión de $ 5.2 billones
Riesgos climáticos físicos	$ 16.7 billones de daños a la propiedad potencial	Costos de adaptación de $ 3.8 billones

Estándares de construcción verde que afectan los criterios de préstamos hipotecarios

Impacto de certificación LEED en la valoración de la hipoteca:

• Valor de propiedades de platino LEED Premium: 10.2%
• Valor de propiedades de oro LEED Premium: 7.8%
• Mercado hipotecario de eficiencia energética: $ 42.6 mil millones

Modificaciones de criterios de préstamos hipotecarios basadas en estándares ambientales:

Estándar verde	Ajuste de criterios de préstamo	Reducción de la tasa de interés
Certificación Energy Star	Mayor evaluación de riesgos	Reducción de 0.25%
Edificio de energía neta cero	Estado de préstamos preferidos	Reducción de 0.35%

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Record-low housing affordability drives robust demand for rental properties, supporting Multi-Family and Single-Family Rental (SFR) assets

The core social factor driving New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s (NYMT) investment thesis is the historic collapse in U.S. housing affordability. Honestly, buying a home is harder now than it has been in decades. As of mid-2025, mortgage rates are sitting 109% higher than their 2019 levels, meaning owning a home typically costs more on a monthly basis than renting, even with a 10% down payment. This affordability crisis has created a structural demand shift toward rental properties.

This shift is particularly strong in the Single-Family Rental (SFR) market, a key area for NYMT's Business Purpose Loan (BPL) segment. About 31% of renters now live in SFRs, and the investor response is clear: 32% of landlords surveyed plan to expand their SFR holdings in 2025. The median U.S. renter is now 42 years old, up from 36 in 2000, which tells you that homeownership is being delayed, sustaining the need for investor-owned stock for years to come.

Millennial generation represents a significant share of U.S. homebuyers, shifting demand toward smaller, more affordable units

While Millennials are a huge generation, they are not dominating the home buying market as some narratives suggest. In 2025, Millennials (ages 29 to 44) made up 29% of recent home buyers, making them the second-largest generational group behind Baby Boomers at 42%. This is a massive, still-active cohort, but their buying behavior is heavily influenced by cost.

The financial pressure is real, so their demand is concentrated in smaller, more affordable units, which often means an increased reliance on investor-owned properties as a stepping stone. A telling sign is that 44% of Millennials cite affordability as the single most important factor when looking for a home, outpacing location and size. This preference directly supports the rental property market, including the Multi-Family and SFR assets that NYMT finances.

Increased median age of first-time homebuyers sustains the need for investor-owned rental stock

The delay in first-time homeownership is a critical tailwind for the rental market. The median age of a first-time homebuyer has climbed to a record high of 40 years in 2025, up from 38 just the year before. This is a huge jump and a clear indicator of systemic affordability issues. The share of all home purchases made by first-time buyers also dropped to a record low of just 21% this year. This trend means a larger portion of the population is spending their peak earning and family-forming years as renters, creating a deep, reliable pool of tenants for the investor-owned properties NYMT's Constructive platform finances.

Here's the quick math on the generational housing shift:

Demographic Segment (2025 Data)	Key Statistic	Implication for NYMT's Strategy
Median Age of First-Time Homebuyer	40 years (Record High)	Sustains long-term rental demand; delays household formation into homeownership.
Share of Total Home Purchases (First-Time Buyers)	21% (Record Low)	Increases the market share for investor-owned rental properties.
Millennial Share of Recent Home Buyers	29%	A large, active buyer group that prioritizes affordability, driving demand for smaller, lower-cost units and rentals.
Average Household Raise Needed to Afford Median Home	$18,000 over 2019 wages	Illustrates the severity of the affordability gap, cementing the rental market's strength.

Population migration to Sun Belt metros increases demand for NYMT's regional BPL origination

The Sun Belt boom is defintely still robust, and it's a direct geographic opportunity for NYMT's Business Purpose Loan (BPL) origination platform, Constructive. The migration is driven by a search for lower taxes, warmer climate, and greater affordability.

The data confirms this: between 2023 and 2024, 14 of the 15 U.S. metros with the highest net domestic in-migration rates were located in the Southeast, a key Sun Belt region. This influx of people directly translates to a need for more housing, which is often met by real estate investors who use BPLs for acquisitions, renovations, and rental property financing.

NYMT's strategy is aligned with this trend. In July 2025, NYMT completed the acquisition of the remaining 50% interest in Constructive, a BPL originator operating in 48 states. This move accelerates their ability to capitalize on this demand. For example, in Q2 2025, NYMT's Single-Family investments included $280 million of Residential Loans, with 99% of that being BPLs, demonstrating a strong focus on this high-growth, investor-driven segment.

• Las Vegas led the nation with 33% of new residents coming from other states in 2024.
• The South gained a staggering 2,685,000 net domestic migrants between July 2020 and July 2024.
• Key Sun Belt markets like Phoenix, Las Vegas, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Houston are projected to lead regional growth in 2025.

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in underwriting promises faster, more accurate risk assessment for BPLs.

You need to know that AI is not a future concept; it's a 2025 operational reality that directly impacts New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s (NYMT) core business purpose loan (BPL) underwriting. Non-bank lenders, which is the category Constructive Loans falls into, are seeing AI cut operational costs by up to 30% this year. This isn't just about saving money; it's about speed and precision.

Here's the quick math on efficiency: maximizing digital capabilities in automated underwriting systems (AUS) can deliver savings of up to $1,700 per loan. Plus, this technology drastically cuts down on human error. Lenders using automated underwriting extensively are reporting 40% fewer loan defects, which strengthens the quality of the loans NYMT holds and securitizes. Honestly, the ability to assess risk in minutes instead of days is a game-changer for scaling BPL volume.

• AI adoption is expected to reach 91% of insurance companies by 2025.
• AI slashes standard decision times from 3-5 days to just 12.4 minutes.
• Machine learning has improved premium accuracy by 53%.

Full acquisition of Constructive Loans integrates a digital origination platform, improving efficiency and scale.

The full acquisition of Constructive Loans, completed on July 15, 2025, is a strategic move to vertically integrate a proprietary digital origination platform. This wasn't a small investment, but a critical one for scale. NYMT paid approximately $38.4 million in cash consideration for the remaining 50% ownership interest. Constructive Loans originated over $1.7 billion in BPLs in the twelve months ending June 30, 2025, demonstrating the platform's immediate scale.

The goal is a direct pipeline for investment opportunities, and the platform acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive to Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD). We anticipate this move will deliver an annual equity return of approximately 15%, which is a solid return on investment that defintely justifies the cost. This integration helps NYMT capture more value throughout the entire investment chain, from loan origination all the way through to securitization.

Blockchain technology is emerging for digital securitization, potentially lowering transaction costs and increasing transparency.

Blockchain (Distributed Ledger Technology, or DLT) is not yet mainstream in mortgage securitization, but it is a near-term opportunity NYMT must monitor. The technology's primary benefit is eliminating intermediaries and enabling instantaneous settlement (T+0). This could improve settlement speed by 80% to 90% compared to the traditional T+2 cycle.

For a company like NYMT that frequently executes securitizations-like the one on July 24, 2025, which generated approximately $345.9 million in net proceeds-even a small percentage reduction in transaction costs is massive. Industry estimates suggest blockchain-based smart contracts could lead to an 11% to 22% drop in total mortgage processing fees, translating to savings of $480 to $960 on an average loan. This is a huge competitive advantage waiting to be unlocked.

Metric	Traditional Securitization	Blockchain (Tokenization) Potential
Settlement Time	T+2 days	T+0 (Instantaneous)
Processing Cost Reduction	Baseline	11% to 22% drop in fees
US Industry Savings Potential	N/A	Minimum of $1.5 billion via automation

End-to-end digital mortgage processing is becoming the industry standard, requiring continuous platform investment.

The industry is moving to fully digital, which means continuous investment in technology is a non-negotiable operating expense. The average cost to produce a mortgage in Q2 2025 was approximately $11,800, and a significant portion of that is tech spend. Specifically, lenders are spending approximately $1,200 per loan on technology infrastructure, including automated underwriting systems and compliance tools.

The Loan Origination Software (LOS) market is expected to grow at a 12% CAGR over the next five years, so the cost of keeping up will only rise. NYMT's challenge is to ensure the Constructive Loans platform remains best-in-class, as any lag in digital adoption quickly translates into higher operational costs and a less competitive offering. You must budget for this escalating technology spend as a fixed cost of doing business, not a discretionary expense.

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Recourse Leverage Covenant Flexibility

You need maximum financial flexibility to capitalize on market opportunities, and New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) secured a major win on this front in June 2025. The company successfully completed a consent solicitation to amend the indenture governing its outstanding 5.75% Senior Notes due 2026.

The core change was a revision to the Net Debt to Equity Ratio covenant-a critical measure of recourse leverage (debt that NYMT is directly liable for). This maximum allowable ratio was raised significantly to 8.00 to 1.00.

This move gives NYMT substantial headroom for growth. Here's the quick math: as of June 30, 2025, the Company Recourse Leverage Ratio was only 3.8x. This new covenant effectively more than doubles the company's capacity to prudently finance its target assets, like Agency Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS) and business purpose loans, without defaulting on its senior unsecured debt obligations. That's a clear runway for asset acquisition.

CFPB Mortgage Servicing Rule Revisions

The regulatory environment for mortgage servicers is about to get more complex, and NYMT must prepare for the operational lift. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is on track to finalize its revisions to the mortgage servicing rules by December 2025.

This is not a minor tweak; the proposed rule overhauls the loss mitigation process, moving away from the 'complete application' framework to a new 'loss mitigation review cycle.' Plus, it introduces requirements for servicers to provide certain communications in languages other than English, adding a new layer of compliance.

While a precise dollar figure for industry-wide compliance costs is not yet public, the operational burden is significant. You should anticipate a material increase in staffing, technology upgrades, and training to manage the new procedural safeguards and language access requirements. The industry generally opposed the proposal, so defintely expect legal challenges to follow the final rule's release.

Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act (HPPA)

A new federal law, the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act (HPPA), will fundamentally change how mortgage leads are generated, impacting NYMT's loan origination partners. Signed into law in September 2025, this Act amends the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA) to restrict the use of 'trigger leads'-consumer reports sold by credit bureaus after a mortgage application is filed.

The law is effective on March 5, 2026, and it severely limits who can receive this data. Specifically, a consumer reporting agency can only furnish a trigger lead if the recipient makes a firm offer of credit and meets narrow criteria, such as already being the consumer's servicer or having the consumer's authorization.

This is a clear headwind for any business model relying on mass-market solicitation. NYMT's business purpose lending strategy, which includes residential and bridge loans, must ensure its lead generation channels are compliant or pivot to less-regulated or more direct marketing methods.

Regulatory Uncertainty: Regulation Z and Ongoing Litigation

Beyond the new HPPA, two key areas of regulatory uncertainty create a shifting legal landscape for NYMT in 2025.

First, the CFPB is actively reviewing parts of the loan originator compensation rules under Regulation Z (Truth in Lending Act). The Bureau signaled its intent in a July 2025 timeframe to rescind some 'discretionary compensation provisions.' The industry is fighting this because these provisions currently allow for beneficial exemptions, such as those permitting mortgage profits-based payments to loan originators, subject to a cap, and contributions to tax-advantaged plans like 401k plans. Removing these could force a costly restructuring of compensation models.

Second, as a publicly traded real estate investment trust (REIT) with a complex capital structure, NYMT is always exposed to litigation risk, though no specific, material 2025 litigation expense has been disclosed in its financial reports. The table below summarizes the key legal and compliance shifts you need to monitor through the end of the 2025 fiscal year.

Legal/Regulatory Event	2025 Status/Key Date	Impact on NYMT Operations/Finance	Quantifiable Metric (2025 FY)
Recourse Leverage Covenant (2026 Notes)	Amendment approved June 2025	Significantly increased financial flexibility for asset acquisition.	New Max Net Debt to Equity Ratio: 8.00 to 1.00
CFPB Mortgage Servicing Rules (Regulation X/Z)	Final rule expected December 2025	Increased operational complexity and compliance costs (e.g., new loss mitigation and language access requirements).	Compliance Cost Estimate: Not yet quantified in public filings.
Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act (HPPA)	Signed September 5, 2025; Effective March 5, 2026	Restricts 'trigger leads,' necessitating a pivot in loan solicitation and marketing strategy.	Effective Date: March 5, 2026
CFPB Loan Originator Compensation (Regulation Z)	Pre-rule stage (July 2025 timeframe) to rescind provisions	High regulatory uncertainty; potential for costly restructuring of loan originator compensation models.	Compensation Model Impact: Industry-wide restructuring cost unknown.

Here's the bottom line: The leverage covenant change is a massive opportunity, but the CFPB is simultaneously tightening the screws on servicing and origination practices.

• Monitor the December 2025 CFPB final servicing rule.
• Begin revising lead acquisition strategy immediately for the March 5, 2026 HPPA deadline.
• Finance: Utilize the new 8.00 to 1.00 leverage capacity for targeted asset acquisitions.

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Physical climate risk is increasingly impacting collateral value, with projected $1.2 billion in mortgage-related losses in 2025.

You need to look past the immediate credit risk and focus on the physical risk. We are defintely seeing climate-driven events translate directly into mortgage losses, which erodes the value of the collateral backing New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s (NYMT) securities portfolio. Here's the quick math: First Street, a research firm, projects that lenders face a baseline of $252 million in losses in 2025 from climate-driven foreclosures, but that number could balloon to $1.2 billion in the event of a major climate disaster, like a severe hurricane or widespread flooding.

This isn't just about direct property damage; it's about the financial strain that leads to default. Approximately 19,000 properties across the United States could face repossession or severe financial strain in 2025 due to these climate-related impacts. For a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) like NYMT, this means higher expected loss severities on non-Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and increased servicing costs on whole loans in high-risk geographies.

Rising property insurance costs in high-risk areas (e.g., coastal and wildfire zones) increase borrower default probability.

The rising cost of property insurance is the most immediate, non-event-driven threat to your portfolio's performance. When insurance premiums soar, the borrower's total monthly housing payment increases, which is a direct squeeze on their liquidity. A Federal Reserve working paper found that for every $500 increase in annual homeowners insurance cost, a borrower is 20 percent more likely to become delinquent on their mortgage.

The average insurance payment for a mortgaged single-family home in the U.S. rose by 4.9% in the first half of 2025, pushing the average annual payment to almost $2,370. In high-hazard regions, the problem is compounded by insurers pulling back. Property-insurance non-renewal rates in these areas have hit 1.6%, which is double the rate of lower-risk zones, signaling inadequate coverage and adverse selection. This premium shock is a clear channel through which climate risk destabilizes household finances and, subsequently, the MBS market.

Risk Factor	2025 Projection/Data	Impact on NYMT's Mortgage Assets
Climate-Driven Mortgage Losses	Up to $1.2 billion in lender losses in a severe disaster scenario.	Increased loss severity on non-Agency MBS collateral and higher foreclosure costs.
Average U.S. Home Insurance Premium	Average annual payment of $2,370 (up 4.9% in H1 2025).	Higher debt-to-income ratios, increasing prepayment risk and delinquency rates.
Green Bond Issuance Growth	Expected to grow by 8% in 2025, reaching $660 billion.	Opportunity for premium pricing on 'green' securitization products.

Investor focus on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards could drive demand for 'green' securitization products.

Investor appetite for sustainable finance is strong, so this is a clear opportunity for NYMT. The global sustainable debt market surpassed US$1.6 trillion in supply in 2024, and total sustainable assets under management have grown to US$3.2 trillion. This demand is driving innovation in securitization (packaging of financial assets into marketable securities).

Green bond issuance is expected to grow by 8% in 2025, reaching $660 billion globally. While this is primarily for bonds, the trend is moving into securitized products, which is your space. You can capitalize on the 'greenium' effect-a pricing advantage for sustainable assets-by structuring 'green' residential or commercial MBS pools that finance energy-efficient or climate-resilient properties. This is about accessing a wider, dedicated pool of capital.

• Capture 'greenium' pricing advantage.
• Access institutional investors with ESG mandates.
• Differentiate MBS products from standard offerings.

Long-duration MBS assets face unquantified risk as climate models project significant property value erosion by 2055.

The core structural flaw in the mortgage-backed securities market is the 'duration trap.' Most residential mortgages have a 30-year term, but climate models project significant impacts well beyond the 10- to 20-year stress tests currently used by rating agencies. This mismatch means the true, long-term physical risk is unquantified in current MBS pricing.

The projections are stark: by 2055, climate-related risks are estimated to cause a potential $1.47 trillion reduction in unadjusted U.S. real estate value. This erosion is driven by chronic hazards, like sea-level rise and increasing insurance costs, not just catastrophic events. For example, wildfire insurance costs in high-risk areas are projected to surge by 18% by 2055. If NYMT holds long-duration MBS backed by assets in high-risk, low-resilience areas, that $1.47 trillion figure represents a massive, slow-moving threat to your collateral's value over the life of the bond.