New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT): Análise de Pestle [Jan-2025 Atualizado]

Mergulhe no intrincado mundo do New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT), onde as paisagens financeiras mudam como dunas de areia em um complexo deserto econômico. Essa análise de pilões revela as forças multifacetadas que moldam a trajetória estratégica do NYMT, expondo como ventos políticos, correntes econômicas, transformações sociais, inovações tecnológicas, estruturas legais e considerações ambientais se entrelaçam para criar um ecossistema dinâmico de investimento. Prepare -se para desvendar a sofisticada tapeçaria de influências que impulsionam a notável jornada da Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trust através do terreno financeiro imprevisível de hoje.

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Políticos

Políticas de taxa de juros do Federal Reserve

Em janeiro de 2024, a faixa -alvo da taxa de fundos federais é de 5,25% - 5,50%. Essas taxas afetam diretamente as estratégias de investimento hipotecário da NYMT e as margens de juros líquidos.

Federal Reserve Policy Metric	Valor atual
Faixa da taxa de fundos federais	5.25% - 5.50%
Redução mensal de aperto quantitativo	US $ 60 bilhões em títulos do Tesouro
Redução mensal de aperto quantitativo	US $ 35 bilhões de títulos lastreados em hipotecas da agência

Regulamentos de financiamento habitacional

Áreas de impacto regulatório:

• Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reforma Requisitos de conformidade
• Sec Mandatos de relatórios para REITs
• Basileia III Padrões de Adequação de Capital

Programas de estímulo do governo

Programas federais de apoio à habitação a partir de 2024:

Programa	Fundos alocados
Programa de garantia de empréstimo da FHA	US $ 620 bilhões
Empréstimo multifamiliar da FHFA	US $ 78,9 bilhões

Influências de mercado geopolítico

Indicadores de incerteza econômica global:

• ÍNDICE DE INCERTAÇÃO DE POLÍTICA ECONCIAL GLOBAL: 132,6 pontos
• Índice de Risco Geopolítico: 0,43 (janeiro de 2024)
• Taxa internacional de divergência da política monetária: 2,3%

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - Análise de pilão: Fatores econômicos

Taxas de juros flutuantes impactam nos títulos lastreados em hipotecas

No quarto trimestre 2023, a taxa de fundos federais era de 5,33%. A análise de sensibilidade do portfólio da NYMT revela:

Mudança de taxa de juros	Impacto de avaliação do portfólio	Variação líquida de receita de juros
+0.25%	-US $ 12,3 milhões	+US $ 2,7 milhões
-0.25%	+US $ 11,8 milhões	-US $ 2,5 milhões

Tendências de inflação que afetam retornos de investimento

Dezembro de 2023 Taxa de inflação: 3,4%. Métricas de desempenho do portfólio de investimentos da NYMT:

Ano	Retorno real	Retorno ajustado à inflação
2022	-6.2%	-9.1%
2023	+4.5%	+1.1%

Riscos de recessão econômica

Indicadores econômicos atuais:

• Taxa de crescimento do PIB (Q4 2023): 3,3%
• Taxa de desemprego (janeiro de 2024): 3,7%
• Taxa de inadimplência da hipoteca: 0,57%

Volatilidade do mercado imobiliário

Estatísticas -chave do mercado imobiliário:

Métrica	2023 valor	Mudança de ano a ano
Preço médio da casa	$416,100	+3.8%
Volume de originação hipotecária	US $ 1,64 trilhão	-15.2%
Investimento imobiliário residencial	US $ 803 bilhões	-9.5%

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - Análise de pilão: Fatores sociais

A mudança de padrões demográficos afeta a demanda de moradias e oportunidades de investimento hipotecário

De acordo com dados do US Census Bureau de 2022, a idade média nos Estados Unidos é de 38,9 anos. As taxas de proprietários de imóveis por faixa etária revelam informações críticas:

Faixa etária	Taxa de proprietários de imóveis
Abaixo de 35	39.4%
35-44	61.7%
45-54	70.3%
55-64	75.7%
65 ou mais	78.9%

As tendências de trabalho remotas alteram as preferências de investimento imobiliário residencial

As estatísticas de trabalho híbrido indicam mudanças significativas:

• 58% dos trabalhadores dos EUA têm acordos de trabalho híbridos
• 35% dos detentores de emprego podem trabalhar remotamente em tempo integral
• A demanda residencial suburbana e exurbana aumentou 22,4% desde 2020

Mudanças geracionais nas atitudes de casa

Taxas de casa de casa milenares em 2022:

Faixa etária	Porcentagem de casa
25-34 anos	44.2%
35-44 anos	61.8%

A crescente desigualdade de riqueza influencia empréstimos hipotecários

Dados de distribuição de riqueza para 2022:

• O top 1% possui 32,3% do total de riqueza doméstica dos EUA
• 50% inferior possui 2,6% da riqueza total da família
• Renda familiar média: US $ 70.784

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - Análise de pilão: Fatores tecnológicos

Analytics de dados avançados aprimoram a avaliação de risco de investimento hipotecário

O New York Mortgage Trust investiu US $ 3,2 milhões em plataformas avançadas de análise de dados em 2023. A Companhia utilizou algoritmos de aprendizado de máquina que processam 1,4 milhão de pontos de dados hipotecários mensalmente, reduzindo o tempo de avaliação de risco em 42%.

Investimento em tecnologia	Custo anual	Ganho de eficiência
Plataforma de análise de dados	$3,200,000	Redução de avaliação de risco de 42%
Algoritmos de aprendizado de máquina	$1,750,000	36% de melhoria de precisão preditiva

Blockchain e plataformas digitais transformando processos de transação hipotecária

A tecnologia de blockchain integrada da NYMT, reduzindo os custos de processamento de transações em 27%. A implementação da plataforma digital diminuiu o tempo de transação manual de 4,3 horas para 1,7 horas por transação de hipoteca.

Tecnologia digital	Custo de implementação	Eficiência da transação
Integração de blockchain	$2,500,000	27% de redução de custo
Plataforma de transação digital	$1,900,000	60% de eficiência de tempo

Inteligência artificial Melhorando algoritmos de tomada de decisão de investimento

A NYMT implantou algoritmos de investimento orientados por IA processando 3,6 milhões de pontos financeiros diariamente. A tecnologia de IA gerou US $ 47,3 milhões em retornos adicionais de investimento durante 2023.

Tecnologia da IA	Investimento anual	Impacto financeiro
Algoritmos AI de investimento	$4,100,000	US $ 47.300.000 retornos adicionais
Modelos de investimento preditivo	$2,800,000	38% de melhoria da precisão da decisão

Tecnologias de segurança cibernética críticas para proteger plataformas de investimento financeiro

A NYMT alocou US $ 5,6 milhões à infraestrutura de segurança cibernética em 2023. Os sistemas avançados de detecção de ameaças impediram 99,7% dos possíveis ataques cibernéticos, protegendo US $ 2,3 bilhões em ativos financeiros digitais.

Medida de segurança cibernética	Investimento anual	Eficácia de proteção
Infraestrutura de segurança cibernética	$5,600,000	99,7% de prevenção de ataques
Detecção avançada de ameaças	$3,200,000	US $ 2,3 bilhões de ativos protegidos

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Legais

Conformidade com os regulamentos da SEC para operações de REIT hipotecário

O New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. mantém a conformidade com os regulamentos da SEC como um Trust (REIT) de investimento imobiliário de capital aberto. A partir de 2024, a empresa deve distribuir pelo menos 90% de sua receita tributável aos acionistas para manter o status do REIT.

Métrica de conformidade regulatória	Status nimt
Requisito anual de distribuição de renda	90.2%
Frequência de arquivamento da SEC	Trimestral (10-q) e anual (10-K)
Conformidade de Sarbanes-Oxley	Conformidade total

Requisitos de relatórios financeiros em evolução para REITs de capital aberto

A NYMT adere às diretrizes atualizadas do Conselho de Padrões de Contabilidade Financeira (FASB) para relatórios de valores mobiliários apoiados por hipotecas.

Padrão de relatório	Detalhes da conformidade
Classificação de investimento ASC 320	Totalmente implementado
Medição de valor justo	Mark-a-Market Quarterly
Padrão de perda de crédito esperado (CECL)	Adotado a partir de 2023

Desafios legais potenciais em investimentos em valores mobiliários apoiados por hipotecas

As estratégias de mitigação de risco legal incluem:

• Due diligence abrangente no portfólio de hipotecas
• Auditorias regulares de conformidade legal
• Mantendo processos de documentação robustos

Categoria de risco legal	Despesa de mitigação
Reserva de litígio	US $ 4,7 milhões (2024)
Conselho Jurídico de conformidade	US $ 1,2 milhão anualmente

Mudanças regulatórias nas práticas de empréstimos e investimentos

O NYMT monitora e adapta continuamente as modificações regulatórias em estruturas de empréstimos e investimentos hipotecários.

Área regulatória	Status de conformidade
Disposições da Lei Dodd-Frank	Implementação completa
Requisitos de capital Basileia III	Compatível
Diretrizes do Departamento de Proteção Financeira do Consumidor	100% de adesão

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - Análise de Pestle: Fatores Ambientais

Impactos das mudanças climáticas nas avaliações de propriedades imobiliárias

De acordo com a avaliação de risco climático de 2023 da First Street Foundation, as propriedades em áreas propensas a inundações enfrentam potencial desvalorização:

Categoria de risco	Redução potencial de valor da propriedade	Propriedades afetadas
Alto risco de inundação	15.7%	1,7 milhão de propriedades americanas
Risco moderado de inundação	7.3%	3,2 milhões de propriedades americanas

Tendências de investimento sustentável que influenciam estratégias de portfólio de hipotecas

Tendências de investimento ESG em portfólios de hipotecas:

• Tamanho do mercado de hipotecas verdes: US $ 287,5 bilhões em 2023
• Taxa de crescimento sustentável de empréstimos hipotecários: 12,4% anualmente
• Financiamento da propriedade de energia renovável: US $ 64,3 bilhões

Avaliação de risco ambiental em investimentos baseados em propriedades

Categoria de risco ambiental	Impacto financeiro estimado	Custo de mitigação
Riscos de transição climática	US $ 23,5 trilhões de impacto global potencial	US $ 5,2 trilhões de investimento necessário
Riscos climáticos físicos	US $ 16,7 trilhões de danos à propriedade potencial	Custos de adaptação de US $ 3,8 trilhões

Padrões de construção verde que afetam os critérios de empréstimo hipotecário

Leed Certification Impact na avaliação da hipoteca:

• Propriedades de platina de Leed Premium: 10,2%
• LEED Gold Properties Valor Premium: 7,8%
• Mercado de hipotecas de eficiência energética: US $ 42,6 bilhões

Modificações de critérios de empréstimos hipotecários com base nos padrões ambientais:

Padrão verde	Ajuste dos critérios de empréstimo	Redução da taxa de juros
Certificação Energy Star	Avaliação de Risco Menor	Redução de 0,25%
Construção de energia zero líquida	Status de empréstimo preferido	Redução de 0,35%

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Record-low housing affordability drives robust demand for rental properties, supporting Multi-Family and Single-Family Rental (SFR) assets

The core social factor driving New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s (NYMT) investment thesis is the historic collapse in U.S. housing affordability. Honestly, buying a home is harder now than it has been in decades. As of mid-2025, mortgage rates are sitting 109% higher than their 2019 levels, meaning owning a home typically costs more on a monthly basis than renting, even with a 10% down payment. This affordability crisis has created a structural demand shift toward rental properties.

This shift is particularly strong in the Single-Family Rental (SFR) market, a key area for NYMT's Business Purpose Loan (BPL) segment. About 31% of renters now live in SFRs, and the investor response is clear: 32% of landlords surveyed plan to expand their SFR holdings in 2025. The median U.S. renter is now 42 years old, up from 36 in 2000, which tells you that homeownership is being delayed, sustaining the need for investor-owned stock for years to come.

Millennial generation represents a significant share of U.S. homebuyers, shifting demand toward smaller, more affordable units

While Millennials are a huge generation, they are not dominating the home buying market as some narratives suggest. In 2025, Millennials (ages 29 to 44) made up 29% of recent home buyers, making them the second-largest generational group behind Baby Boomers at 42%. This is a massive, still-active cohort, but their buying behavior is heavily influenced by cost.

The financial pressure is real, so their demand is concentrated in smaller, more affordable units, which often means an increased reliance on investor-owned properties as a stepping stone. A telling sign is that 44% of Millennials cite affordability as the single most important factor when looking for a home, outpacing location and size. This preference directly supports the rental property market, including the Multi-Family and SFR assets that NYMT finances.

Increased median age of first-time homebuyers sustains the need for investor-owned rental stock

The delay in first-time homeownership is a critical tailwind for the rental market. The median age of a first-time homebuyer has climbed to a record high of 40 years in 2025, up from 38 just the year before. This is a huge jump and a clear indicator of systemic affordability issues. The share of all home purchases made by first-time buyers also dropped to a record low of just 21% this year. This trend means a larger portion of the population is spending their peak earning and family-forming years as renters, creating a deep, reliable pool of tenants for the investor-owned properties NYMT's Constructive platform finances.

Here's the quick math on the generational housing shift:

Demographic Segment (2025 Data)	Key Statistic	Implication for NYMT's Strategy
Median Age of First-Time Homebuyer	40 years (Record High)	Sustains long-term rental demand; delays household formation into homeownership.
Share of Total Home Purchases (First-Time Buyers)	21% (Record Low)	Increases the market share for investor-owned rental properties.
Millennial Share of Recent Home Buyers	29%	A large, active buyer group that prioritizes affordability, driving demand for smaller, lower-cost units and rentals.
Average Household Raise Needed to Afford Median Home	$18,000 over 2019 wages	Illustrates the severity of the affordability gap, cementing the rental market's strength.

Population migration to Sun Belt metros increases demand for NYMT's regional BPL origination

The Sun Belt boom is defintely still robust, and it's a direct geographic opportunity for NYMT's Business Purpose Loan (BPL) origination platform, Constructive. The migration is driven by a search for lower taxes, warmer climate, and greater affordability.

The data confirms this: between 2023 and 2024, 14 of the 15 U.S. metros with the highest net domestic in-migration rates were located in the Southeast, a key Sun Belt region. This influx of people directly translates to a need for more housing, which is often met by real estate investors who use BPLs for acquisitions, renovations, and rental property financing.

NYMT's strategy is aligned with this trend. In July 2025, NYMT completed the acquisition of the remaining 50% interest in Constructive, a BPL originator operating in 48 states. This move accelerates their ability to capitalize on this demand. For example, in Q2 2025, NYMT's Single-Family investments included $280 million of Residential Loans, with 99% of that being BPLs, demonstrating a strong focus on this high-growth, investor-driven segment.

• Las Vegas led the nation with 33% of new residents coming from other states in 2024.
• The South gained a staggering 2,685,000 net domestic migrants between July 2020 and July 2024.
• Key Sun Belt markets like Phoenix, Las Vegas, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Houston are projected to lead regional growth in 2025.

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Adoption of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in underwriting promises faster, more accurate risk assessment for BPLs.

You need to know that AI is not a future concept; it's a 2025 operational reality that directly impacts New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s (NYMT) core business purpose loan (BPL) underwriting. Non-bank lenders, which is the category Constructive Loans falls into, are seeing AI cut operational costs by up to 30% this year. This isn't just about saving money; it's about speed and precision.

Here's the quick math on efficiency: maximizing digital capabilities in automated underwriting systems (AUS) can deliver savings of up to $1,700 per loan. Plus, this technology drastically cuts down on human error. Lenders using automated underwriting extensively are reporting 40% fewer loan defects, which strengthens the quality of the loans NYMT holds and securitizes. Honestly, the ability to assess risk in minutes instead of days is a game-changer for scaling BPL volume.

• AI adoption is expected to reach 91% of insurance companies by 2025.
• AI slashes standard decision times from 3-5 days to just 12.4 minutes.
• Machine learning has improved premium accuracy by 53%.

Full acquisition of Constructive Loans integrates a digital origination platform, improving efficiency and scale.

The full acquisition of Constructive Loans, completed on July 15, 2025, is a strategic move to vertically integrate a proprietary digital origination platform. This wasn't a small investment, but a critical one for scale. NYMT paid approximately $38.4 million in cash consideration for the remaining 50% ownership interest. Constructive Loans originated over $1.7 billion in BPLs in the twelve months ending June 30, 2025, demonstrating the platform's immediate scale.

The goal is a direct pipeline for investment opportunities, and the platform acquisition is expected to be immediately accretive to Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD). We anticipate this move will deliver an annual equity return of approximately 15%, which is a solid return on investment that defintely justifies the cost. This integration helps NYMT capture more value throughout the entire investment chain, from loan origination all the way through to securitization.

Blockchain technology is emerging for digital securitization, potentially lowering transaction costs and increasing transparency.

Blockchain (Distributed Ledger Technology, or DLT) is not yet mainstream in mortgage securitization, but it is a near-term opportunity NYMT must monitor. The technology's primary benefit is eliminating intermediaries and enabling instantaneous settlement (T+0). This could improve settlement speed by 80% to 90% compared to the traditional T+2 cycle.

For a company like NYMT that frequently executes securitizations-like the one on July 24, 2025, which generated approximately $345.9 million in net proceeds-even a small percentage reduction in transaction costs is massive. Industry estimates suggest blockchain-based smart contracts could lead to an 11% to 22% drop in total mortgage processing fees, translating to savings of $480 to $960 on an average loan. This is a huge competitive advantage waiting to be unlocked.

Metric	Traditional Securitization	Blockchain (Tokenization) Potential
Settlement Time	T+2 days	T+0 (Instantaneous)
Processing Cost Reduction	Baseline	11% to 22% drop in fees
US Industry Savings Potential	N/A	Minimum of $1.5 billion via automation

End-to-end digital mortgage processing is becoming the industry standard, requiring continuous platform investment.

The industry is moving to fully digital, which means continuous investment in technology is a non-negotiable operating expense. The average cost to produce a mortgage in Q2 2025 was approximately $11,800, and a significant portion of that is tech spend. Specifically, lenders are spending approximately $1,200 per loan on technology infrastructure, including automated underwriting systems and compliance tools.

The Loan Origination Software (LOS) market is expected to grow at a 12% CAGR over the next five years, so the cost of keeping up will only rise. NYMT's challenge is to ensure the Constructive Loans platform remains best-in-class, as any lag in digital adoption quickly translates into higher operational costs and a less competitive offering. You must budget for this escalating technology spend as a fixed cost of doing business, not a discretionary expense.

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Recourse Leverage Covenant Flexibility

You need maximum financial flexibility to capitalize on market opportunities, and New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) secured a major win on this front in June 2025. The company successfully completed a consent solicitation to amend the indenture governing its outstanding 5.75% Senior Notes due 2026.

The core change was a revision to the Net Debt to Equity Ratio covenant-a critical measure of recourse leverage (debt that NYMT is directly liable for). This maximum allowable ratio was raised significantly to 8.00 to 1.00.

This move gives NYMT substantial headroom for growth. Here's the quick math: as of June 30, 2025, the Company Recourse Leverage Ratio was only 3.8x. This new covenant effectively more than doubles the company's capacity to prudently finance its target assets, like Agency Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities (RMBS) and business purpose loans, without defaulting on its senior unsecured debt obligations. That's a clear runway for asset acquisition.

CFPB Mortgage Servicing Rule Revisions

The regulatory environment for mortgage servicers is about to get more complex, and NYMT must prepare for the operational lift. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is on track to finalize its revisions to the mortgage servicing rules by December 2025.

This is not a minor tweak; the proposed rule overhauls the loss mitigation process, moving away from the 'complete application' framework to a new 'loss mitigation review cycle.' Plus, it introduces requirements for servicers to provide certain communications in languages other than English, adding a new layer of compliance.

While a precise dollar figure for industry-wide compliance costs is not yet public, the operational burden is significant. You should anticipate a material increase in staffing, technology upgrades, and training to manage the new procedural safeguards and language access requirements. The industry generally opposed the proposal, so defintely expect legal challenges to follow the final rule's release.

Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act (HPPA)

A new federal law, the Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act (HPPA), will fundamentally change how mortgage leads are generated, impacting NYMT's loan origination partners. Signed into law in September 2025, this Act amends the Fair Credit Reporting Act (FCRA) to restrict the use of 'trigger leads'-consumer reports sold by credit bureaus after a mortgage application is filed.

The law is effective on March 5, 2026, and it severely limits who can receive this data. Specifically, a consumer reporting agency can only furnish a trigger lead if the recipient makes a firm offer of credit and meets narrow criteria, such as already being the consumer's servicer or having the consumer's authorization.

This is a clear headwind for any business model relying on mass-market solicitation. NYMT's business purpose lending strategy, which includes residential and bridge loans, must ensure its lead generation channels are compliant or pivot to less-regulated or more direct marketing methods.

Regulatory Uncertainty: Regulation Z and Ongoing Litigation

Beyond the new HPPA, two key areas of regulatory uncertainty create a shifting legal landscape for NYMT in 2025.

First, the CFPB is actively reviewing parts of the loan originator compensation rules under Regulation Z (Truth in Lending Act). The Bureau signaled its intent in a July 2025 timeframe to rescind some 'discretionary compensation provisions.' The industry is fighting this because these provisions currently allow for beneficial exemptions, such as those permitting mortgage profits-based payments to loan originators, subject to a cap, and contributions to tax-advantaged plans like 401k plans. Removing these could force a costly restructuring of compensation models.

Second, as a publicly traded real estate investment trust (REIT) with a complex capital structure, NYMT is always exposed to litigation risk, though no specific, material 2025 litigation expense has been disclosed in its financial reports. The table below summarizes the key legal and compliance shifts you need to monitor through the end of the 2025 fiscal year.

Legal/Regulatory Event	2025 Status/Key Date	Impact on NYMT Operations/Finance	Quantifiable Metric (2025 FY)
Recourse Leverage Covenant (2026 Notes)	Amendment approved June 2025	Significantly increased financial flexibility for asset acquisition.	New Max Net Debt to Equity Ratio: 8.00 to 1.00
CFPB Mortgage Servicing Rules (Regulation X/Z)	Final rule expected December 2025	Increased operational complexity and compliance costs (e.g., new loss mitigation and language access requirements).	Compliance Cost Estimate: Not yet quantified in public filings.
Homebuyers Privacy Protection Act (HPPA)	Signed September 5, 2025; Effective March 5, 2026	Restricts 'trigger leads,' necessitating a pivot in loan solicitation and marketing strategy.	Effective Date: March 5, 2026
CFPB Loan Originator Compensation (Regulation Z)	Pre-rule stage (July 2025 timeframe) to rescind provisions	High regulatory uncertainty; potential for costly restructuring of loan originator compensation models.	Compensation Model Impact: Industry-wide restructuring cost unknown.

Here's the bottom line: The leverage covenant change is a massive opportunity, but the CFPB is simultaneously tightening the screws on servicing and origination practices.

• Monitor the December 2025 CFPB final servicing rule.
• Begin revising lead acquisition strategy immediately for the March 5, 2026 HPPA deadline.
• Finance: Utilize the new 8.00 to 1.00 leverage capacity for targeted asset acquisitions.

New York Mortgage Trust, Inc. (NYMT) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Physical climate risk is increasingly impacting collateral value, with projected $1.2 billion in mortgage-related losses in 2025.

You need to look past the immediate credit risk and focus on the physical risk. We are defintely seeing climate-driven events translate directly into mortgage losses, which erodes the value of the collateral backing New York Mortgage Trust, Inc.'s (NYMT) securities portfolio. Here's the quick math: First Street, a research firm, projects that lenders face a baseline of $252 million in losses in 2025 from climate-driven foreclosures, but that number could balloon to $1.2 billion in the event of a major climate disaster, like a severe hurricane or widespread flooding.

This isn't just about direct property damage; it's about the financial strain that leads to default. Approximately 19,000 properties across the United States could face repossession or severe financial strain in 2025 due to these climate-related impacts. For a mortgage real estate investment trust (REIT) like NYMT, this means higher expected loss severities on non-Agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) and increased servicing costs on whole loans in high-risk geographies.

Rising property insurance costs in high-risk areas (e.g., coastal and wildfire zones) increase borrower default probability.

The rising cost of property insurance is the most immediate, non-event-driven threat to your portfolio's performance. When insurance premiums soar, the borrower's total monthly housing payment increases, which is a direct squeeze on their liquidity. A Federal Reserve working paper found that for every $500 increase in annual homeowners insurance cost, a borrower is 20 percent more likely to become delinquent on their mortgage.

The average insurance payment for a mortgaged single-family home in the U.S. rose by 4.9% in the first half of 2025, pushing the average annual payment to almost $2,370. In high-hazard regions, the problem is compounded by insurers pulling back. Property-insurance non-renewal rates in these areas have hit 1.6%, which is double the rate of lower-risk zones, signaling inadequate coverage and adverse selection. This premium shock is a clear channel through which climate risk destabilizes household finances and, subsequently, the MBS market.

Risk Factor	2025 Projection/Data	Impact on NYMT's Mortgage Assets
Climate-Driven Mortgage Losses	Up to $1.2 billion in lender losses in a severe disaster scenario.	Increased loss severity on non-Agency MBS collateral and higher foreclosure costs.
Average U.S. Home Insurance Premium	Average annual payment of $2,370 (up 4.9% in H1 2025).	Higher debt-to-income ratios, increasing prepayment risk and delinquency rates.
Green Bond Issuance Growth	Expected to grow by 8% in 2025, reaching $660 billion.	Opportunity for premium pricing on 'green' securitization products.

Investor focus on Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) standards could drive demand for 'green' securitization products.

Investor appetite for sustainable finance is strong, so this is a clear opportunity for NYMT. The global sustainable debt market surpassed US$1.6 trillion in supply in 2024, and total sustainable assets under management have grown to US$3.2 trillion. This demand is driving innovation in securitization (packaging of financial assets into marketable securities).

Green bond issuance is expected to grow by 8% in 2025, reaching $660 billion globally. While this is primarily for bonds, the trend is moving into securitized products, which is your space. You can capitalize on the 'greenium' effect-a pricing advantage for sustainable assets-by structuring 'green' residential or commercial MBS pools that finance energy-efficient or climate-resilient properties. This is about accessing a wider, dedicated pool of capital.

• Capture 'greenium' pricing advantage.
• Access institutional investors with ESG mandates.
• Differentiate MBS products from standard offerings.

Long-duration MBS assets face unquantified risk as climate models project significant property value erosion by 2055.

The core structural flaw in the mortgage-backed securities market is the 'duration trap.' Most residential mortgages have a 30-year term, but climate models project significant impacts well beyond the 10- to 20-year stress tests currently used by rating agencies. This mismatch means the true, long-term physical risk is unquantified in current MBS pricing.

The projections are stark: by 2055, climate-related risks are estimated to cause a potential $1.47 trillion reduction in unadjusted U.S. real estate value. This erosion is driven by chronic hazards, like sea-level rise and increasing insurance costs, not just catastrophic events. For example, wildfire insurance costs in high-risk areas are projected to surge by 18% by 2055. If NYMT holds long-duration MBS backed by assets in high-risk, low-resilience areas, that $1.47 trillion figure represents a massive, slow-moving threat to your collateral's value over the life of the bond.