Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. (PAC): SWOT Analysis [Nov-2025 Updated]

You need to know if Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (PAC) is a safe bet or a regulatory landmine, and the 2025 data shows a powerful, two-sided story: its core strength is a near-monopoly on high-growth tourist traffic, netting 52.68 million passengers through October 2025, but that strength is directly undercut by the Mexican government's concession fee hike from 5% to 9% of aeronautical revenue, which is a real headwind to their 64.3% EBITDA margin. The company is fighting back by pouring MXP 43,185 million into its Master Development Plan through 2029 and aggressively growing non-aeronautical revenue-like the new office buildings at Guadalajara Airport-which now contributes 43% of directly operated business revenue, but you defintely have to weigh that massive CapEx commitment against the persistent threat of tariff regulation.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. (PAC) - SWOT Analysis: Strengths

Diverse portfolio across 12 Mexican and 2 Jamaican airports

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico (PAC) benefits from a geographically diversified portfolio that insulates it from localized economic or political shocks. You aren't betting on a single region; you're spread out. The company operates a total of 14 airports, comprising 12 key airports across Mexico's Pacific and central regions, plus two international airports in Jamaica: Sangster International Airport in Montego Bay and Norman Manley International Airport in Kingston.

This mix includes major metropolitan hubs like Guadalajara and Tijuana, alongside high-yield tourist destinations. This dual-market strategy-Mexico and the Caribbean-helps balance passenger traffic, especially since the Jamaican airports primarily serve international tourism, which can offset fluctuations in Mexican domestic travel.

High-growth tourist hubs like Los Cabos and Puerto Vallarta

A significant strength is the concentration of assets in high-growth, globally recognized tourist markets. These destinations, particularly Los Cabos and Puerto Vallarta, consistently outperform other regions, driving higher revenue per passenger (RPP) due to the nature of international and high-end tourism traffic.

Here's the quick math on passenger growth for the first nine months of the 2025 fiscal year (9M25) compared to the same period in 2024 (9M24):

• Puerto Vallarta Airport saw its domestic passenger traffic jump by a robust 11.0%.
• Los Cabos Airport also demonstrated stability with a 1.4% increase in domestic passengers for the first ten months of 2025 (Jan-Oct 2025).

This growth is defintely supported by new route development, such as the eight new international routes to Canada announced for the fourth quarter of 2025, which will further boost traffic in these key hubs.

Strong non-aeronautical revenue from retail and parking

PAC has successfully transitioned beyond a pure aeronautical model, building a powerful non-aeronautical revenue stream-money from things like retail, food & beverage, car rentals, and parking. This is a higher-margin business, and it's less regulated than aeronautical fees (like the TUA, or Passenger Usage Fee).

This revenue stream is a key driver of profitability, growing by a healthy 15.6% in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25) compared to 3Q24. This consistent growth helps maintain a high-profitability profile, as evidenced by the company's impressive Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA) margin of 64.3% in 3Q25.

The strategic acquisition of a majority stake in Guadalajara World Trade Center, S.A. de C.V. (GWTC) in 2024 for Ps. 875.5 million also strengthened this segment by consolidating the high-growth cargo and free trade zone business at Guadalajara Airport.

Long-term concession agreements provide stable cash flow visibility

The foundation of PAC's financial stability is its portfolio of long-term concession agreements (contracts with the government to operate the airports). These agreements provide exceptional cash flow visibility for decades, which is a massive advantage for capital planning and investor confidence.

The original concession period for the 12 Mexican airports was granted for 50 years, starting in 1998, locking in a very long operational horizon.

For the Jamaican airports, the concession periods are similarly long: Montego Bay Airport is set to expire in March 2034, and the Kingston Airport concession is for 25 years (signed in 2018), with a possible 5-year extension. This stable, long-dated revenue stream is the bedrock of the business model.

The long-term nature of these contracts, coupled with the new Master Development Program (MDP) for 2025-2029, allows for planned capital investments like the expected 55% increase in terminal building square meters by 2029.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. (PAC) - SWOT Analysis: Weaknesses

Heavy capital expenditure (CapEx) requirements under the Master Development Plan

The biggest structural weakness for Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico is the sheer scale of mandated capital expenditure (CapEx) under the Master Development Plan (MDP). This isn't optional spending; it's a concession requirement. The approved MDP for the 2025-2029 period commits the company to an investment of over MX$52 billion (Mexican Pesos) across its 12 Mexican airports, which is a massive 173% increase over the previous five-year period. To be fair, this is a sign of growth, but it drains cash flow.

Here's the quick math: that's a heavy, front-loaded commitment that requires significant financing. For instance, in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q25), the company had to issue long-term bonds (certificados bursátiles) for Ps. 8,500.0 million to help fund capital investments amounting to Ps. 7,000.0 million of that total. This constant need to raise capital to meet regulatory requirements limits financial flexibility and can pressure dividend payouts, which investors defintely watch closely.

• CapEx commitment: Over MX$52 billion (2025-2029).
• Largest single investment: Guadalajara International Airport (GDL) at nearly MX$19 billion.
• 2025 financing action: Ps. 7,000.0 million of capital investments funded by 3Q25 bond issuance.

Maximum Rate regulation limits aeronautical revenue growth potential

The Mexican government's maximum rate regulation is a clear headwind for your core aeronautical revenue. The Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC) sets a maximum tariff per workload unit for each airport, and this cap restricts how much you can charge for essential services, regardless of demand.

The tariffs for the 2025-2029 period are subject to an annual efficiency factor of 0.8%. This factor means the real value of the maximum tariff actually declines each year, putting a cap on organic revenue growth from your most stable income stream. For example, the maximum tariff for Guadalajara International Airport (GDL) starts at 349.44 pesos in 2025 but is set to drop to 338.39 pesos by 2029. So, while traffic might surge, your ability to convert that into proportional aeronautical revenue growth is constrained by this regulatory ceiling.

Significant reliance on international leisure travel, making it sensitive to global events

A substantial portion of Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico's traffic is international, making the company highly sensitive to geopolitical, health, and economic shocks. International travelers account for 45% of the total passenger traffic. Within that, the passenger profile is heavily skewed toward discretionary spending, with 40% categorized as leisure travelers.

This reliance is a weakness because it introduces volatility. We saw this vulnerability surface in 2025. The Q3 2025 earnings call noted a decline in international passenger traffic, specifically citing 'immigration-related challenge and a more restrictive perception under the current U.S. administration,' which directly impacted both leisure and visiting friends and relatives (VFR) passengers. That's a clear example of external policy shifts immediately hitting your traffic numbers. You're exposed to the health of the US economy and its foreign policy decisions.

High fixed costs that are less flexible during traffic downturns

Airport operations, by nature, are a high fixed-cost business. You have to pay for security, utilities, maintenance, and personnel regardless of whether a terminal is at 50% or 100% capacity. This lack of cost flexibility is a structural weakness during any traffic downturn.

The 2025 financial results show a concerning upward trend in operating expenses, which confirms this inflexibility. In the first quarter of 2025 (1Q25), the Cost of services jumped by Ps. 412.9 million, or a 38.5% increase year-over-year. This trend accelerated in the second quarter (2Q25), where Total operating costs increased substantially by Ps. 2,555.4 million, representing a massive 68.2% rise. Even with strong revenue growth, the EBITDA margin (excluding IFRIC-12) saw a slight but notable erosion, dropping from 67.1% in 2Q25 to 64.3% by 3Q25, which is a sign of costs growing faster than core profitability. This means a sudden drop in passenger volume would hit your bottom line hard because those costs simply don't shrink fast enough.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. (PAC) - SWOT Analysis: Opportunities

You're looking for where Grupo Aeroportario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. (PAC) can find its next major growth vector, and the answer is clear: it's in monetizing their captive audience and expanding their geographic footprint. The company's massive capital investment program for 2025-2029 is the defintely the catalyst for these opportunities.

Expansion of non-aeronautical services to boost profit margins

The real margin power in an airport business is shifting from aeronautical fees (like landing and parking) to non-aeronautical services (retail, food, parking). PAC is actively executing a revenue diversification strategy to capture this value. Honestly, this is where the operating leverage kicks in.

In the first quarter of 2025, non-aeronautical revenues already represented 29% of total revenues. This is a strong base, but the growth rate is what matters: non-aeronautical revenue increased by 15.6% in Q3 2025 and a solid 41.8% in Q2 2025 (excluding the cargo acquisition).

The strategy focuses on directly operating high-margin business lines, which saw their contribution to non-aeronautical revenues jump to 43% in Q1 2025, up significantly from 30% in Q1 2024.

Here's the quick math on commercial space expansion:

• Mixed-Use Building at Guadalajara Airport: Office buildings are set for completion in 2025.
• Total new commercial space: This single project adds 44,189 square meters of commercial area.
• Total terminal capacity growth: The 2025-2029 Master Development Program (MDP) is designed to deliver a 60% growth in terminal capacity across the Mexican airports. More passengers, more commercial revenue.

Development of cargo operations and logistics infrastructure

The nearshoring trend in Mexico-companies moving manufacturing closer to the US-is a massive tailwind for air cargo. PAC is capitalizing on this by consolidating its logistics capabilities. They're no longer just a passenger hub; they're becoming a key logistics player.

The strategic acquisition of a 51.5% stake in GWTC (a group of companies providing handling, storage, and custody services) in June 2024 is the foundation. This acquisition was expected to contribute over MXP 699.7 million to revenues in 2024 with an impressive EBITDA margin of approximately 50%.

The Master Development Program (MDP) for 2025-2029, a historic investment of over MX$52 billion (or approximately US$2.6 billion), includes significant infrastructure upgrades that will directly benefit cargo operations. The explicit goal is to facilitate the 'exchange of goods'.

Attracting new international routes and low-cost carriers

Expanding the route network is a direct lever for passenger traffic growth, which feeds both aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenues. PAC is doing this aggressively, especially by targeting the lucrative North American leisure and Visiting Friends and Relatives (VFR) markets.

The results for the first half of 2025 show the momentum: PAC added a total of 21 new routes (11 international and 10 domestic). This drove total passenger traffic up by 4.2% in Q1 2025 and 4.1% in Q2 2025.

A recent focus is on Canada, with 8 new international routes announced in Q3 2025 to start in Q4.

New International Routes Announced (Q1 & Q4 2025 Examples):

• Los Cabos to Sacramento (Alaska Airlines)
• Puerto Vallarta to New York - JFK (Alaska Airlines)
• Guadalajara to Montreal, Toronto, and Calgary
• Puerto Vallarta to Toronto, Ottawa, and Hamilton
• Montego Bay to Lisbon

Potential for further diversification through new concessions in Latin America

PAC is not limiting its growth to its current Mexican and Jamaican portfolio. The company is actively looking to export its operational expertise and strong balance sheet to new markets, which provides a hedge against potential regulatory shifts in Mexico.

They are currently exploring acquisition opportunities, including potential targets in Turks and Caicos and CCR Airports. More concretely, PAC is already 'considering a potential acquisition in the Brazilian airport market'.

The existing Jamaican concessions also provide a template for successful international diversification:

• Montego Bay Airport: The concession period was extended to March 2034.
• Kingston Airport: The concession fee was reduced from 62.01% to 53.22% of Gross Revenues, effective from September 2023.

This shows a willingness and ability to negotiate favorable terms, which is crucial for future expansion. With a strong cash position of Ps. 9.7 billion in Q3 2025 and a healthy net debt to EBITDA ratio of 1.8x, PAC has the financial flexibility to execute on new Latin American concessions.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. (PAC) - SWOT Analysis: Threats

The core threat to Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S.A.B. de C.V. (PAC) is not a lack of passenger demand-which remains robust-but a combination of regulatory changes and macroeconomic volatility that directly compresses margins and increases debt service costs.

Regulatory risk from the Mexican government regarding concession terms or tariffs

The most immediate and quantifiable threat comes from the Mexican government's ability to unilaterally alter the concession framework, which directly impacts PAC's revenue and capital expenditure (CapEx) planning. The new Master Development Program (MDP) for 2025-2029, approved in August 2024, sets a clear, but restrictive, revenue ceiling.

The Mexican government, through the Ministry of Infrastructure, Communications and Transportation (SICT) and the Federal Civil Aviation Agency (AFAC), has implemented two critical changes for the 2025 fiscal year:

• Mandated Efficiency Factor: Maximum tariffs are subject to an annual efficiency factor of 0.8%, meaning the tariff revenue per workload unit (WLU) decreases in real terms each year. For instance, the maximum tariff for Guadalajara International Airport in 2025 is Ps. 349.44 (in December 31, 2023 pesos) and is scheduled to drop to Ps. 346.65 in 2026.
• Increased Concession Fee: The concession fee paid to the government for Mexican airports was increased from 5% to 9% of gross revenues. This change directly hit profitability, contributing to the Q3 2025 EBITDA margin falling to 64.3% from 67.0% in 3Q24.
• New Clawback Clause: A new clause allows the government to claw back revenue if actual workload units exceed projections by more than 3% on a consolidated basis. This essentially caps the upside from better-than-expected traffic growth, shifting the risk/reward balance against PAC.

  Economic slowdown impacting discretionary leisure and business travel demand

  While PAC's passenger traffic has shown resilience-total passengers grew 4.2% in 1H 2025 to 32.1 million and 3.3% in August 2025-the broader Mexican economy is flashing warning signs. Mexico's economy contracted by 0.30% in the third quarter of 2025, raising the risk of a technical recession. A sustained domestic economic slowdown would hit the 55% share of domestic passenger traffic, particularly the business segment (38% of the passenger profile), which is more sensitive to corporate budget cuts than leisure travel.

  Here's the quick math on cost pressure: Despite strong revenue growth (total revenues rose 49.9% to Ps. 10.88 billion in Q2 2025), the operating income margin fell from 48.4% in 2Q24 to 42.1% in 2Q25. This margin compression is a direct result of total operating costs increasing substantially by 68.2% in Q2 2025, a clear sign that inflation and regulatory fees are outpacing revenue growth.

  Increased competition from alternative regional airports or transport modes

  The primary competitive threat is from government-backed infrastructure projects that could siphon off passenger or cargo traffic from PAC's key hubs, particularly Guadalajara (GDL) and Tijuana (TIJ).

  • Felipe Ángeles International Airport (AIFA): While AIFA is not a direct threat to PAC's tourist airports (Los Cabos, Puerto Vallarta), its rapid growth in cargo and domestic passenger traffic (it served 6,348,091 passengers in 2024, a 140% increase) poses a long-term risk. AIFA primarily competes with Mexico City International Airport (AICM), but its expanding domestic network could eventually draw traffic away from PAC's Guadalajara hub, which is a major domestic connector.
  • High-Speed Rail Projects: The government is reviving major rail projects. The contract for the first section of the Queretaro-Irapuato passenger train was awarded in August 2025 for MX$7.63 billion. This route runs close to PAC's Guanajuato International Airport, creating a future, lower-cost alternative for ground transport, especially for the business segment.

  Currency fluctuation risk, especially the Mexican peso against the US dollar

  PAC faces significant exposure to the volatility of the Mexican peso (MXN) against the US dollar (USD) because a large portion of its debt is USD-denominated, while only about 20% of its revenue is in US dollars.

  The MXN has seen extreme volatility in 2025. Although it showed net strength, trading near 18.45 MXN per USD in November 2025, analysts had predicted it could touch 23 pesos per dollar during periods of peak political and economic uncertainty in mid-2025. This volatility creates massive translation risk.

  The real-life impact is clear in the 2025 financial statements:

  • Comprehensive income decreased by Ps. 658.9 million (a 22.8% drop) in Q2 2025, primarily due to foreign currency translation losses.
  • In Q3 2025, the company reported an Ps. 874.2 million increase in foreign currency translation losses compared to the same period in 2024.

  This risk is structural, forcing PAC to manage significant USD-denominated liabilities. For example, the company refinanced a USD$40.0 million credit line in September 2025, highlighting the constant need to manage this exposure.

  Threat Category	2025 Financial/Regulatory Impact	Actionable Risk Metric
  Regulatory Risk	Concession fee increased from 5% to 9% in 2025.	Q3 2025 EBITDA margin fell to 64.3% (from 67.0% in 3Q24).
  Economic Slowdown	Total operating costs increased by 68.2% in Q2 2025.	Mexico's economy contracted by 0.30% in Q3 2025.
  Currency Fluctuation	Comprehensive income decreased by Ps. 658.9 million in Q2 2025.	Q3 2025 saw a Ps. 874.2 million increase in foreign currency translation losses.
  Alternative Competition	New Queretaro-Irapuato rail project contract awarded for MX$7.63 billion.	AIFA passenger traffic reached 6,348,091 in 2024 (140% increase).

  
  

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