United Bankshares, Inc. (UBSI): PESTLE Analysis [Nov-2025 Updated]

The regional banking sector is facing a perfect storm in late 2025, where political scrutiny, economic volatility, and rapid tech shifts are colliding. For United Bankshares, Inc. (UBSI), the challenge isn't just managing the expected net interest margin (NIM) pressure due to deposit cost increases, but also navigating the new regulatory landscape post-2023 bank failures and the rising cost of cybersecurity defense. You need a clear map of these external forces to make smart capital allocation decisions, because the macro environment will defintely dictate UBSI's path to growth and risk mitigation over the next 12 months. Let's break down the Political, Economic, Sociological, Technological, Legal, and Environmental (PESTLE) factors shaping their strategy right now.

United Bankshares, Inc. (UBSI) - PESTLE Analysis: Political factors

Increased regulatory scrutiny on mid-sized banks post-2023 failures.

The political fallout from the 2023 bank failures has created a dual-track regulatory environment for mid-sized banks like United Bankshares, Inc. While UBSI's consolidated assets of approximately $33 billion as of June 30, 2025, keep it below the primary $100 billion threshold for the most stringent rules, the political pressure for tighter oversight is real. This is why you see the industry pushing back on the current thresholds.

For instance, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated in October 2025 that the regulatory asset thresholds require a substantial increase to account for inflation, noting that the $100 billion mark is now equivalent to about $124 billion in 2025 dollars. This political dialogue creates an opportunity for UBSI to pursue its growth strategy, including its recent acquisition of Piedmont Bancorp, Inc., without immediately triggering the full suite of 'Category IV' enhanced prudential standards (EPS).

Still, the cost of the 2023 failures is a direct, quantifiable expense. The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) is recovering a loss estimate of $18.6 billion through a special assessment on larger institutions. UBSI, being over the $5 billion asset threshold, is subject to this. Here is the quick math on the key regulatory impacts:

Federal Reserve interest rate policy creates uncertainty for loan demand.

The Federal Reserve's monetary policy is the single biggest political lever on your core business. The shift from an aggressive hiking cycle to an easing one in late 2024 and 2025 has introduced a new kind of uncertainty. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) cut the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.00%-4.25% in September 2025, with market expectations of a further cut to 3.75%-4.00% by year-end. This is a double-edged sword.

On one hand, lower rates should stimulate loan demand, especially in the residential real estate and consumer sectors, which is great for volume. On the other hand, it puts pressure on your Net Interest Margin (NIM), the profit engine of the bank. UBSI's NIM was 3.80% in the third quarter of 2025, a slight decrease from the second quarter's 3.81%. The company's own 2025 outlook is built on the assumption of two additional 25 basis point rate cuts in the fourth quarter of 2025. Loan demand is defintely picking up, but NIM compression is the near-term risk.

Potential for new state-level consumer protection laws in UBSI's operating states.

As federal agencies like the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) have scaled back some enforcement in 2025, state regulators have stepped into the void, which complicates compliance across your nine-state footprint. This fragmentation is a major operational risk.

State regulators accounted for a massive 78% of all consumer protection-related enforcement actions in the first half of 2025, imposing approximately $1.8 billion in monetary penalties. This shift means UBSI must now navigate a patchwork of rules that often exceed federal standards.

A concrete example is in one of your key markets, Maryland, which enacted a new law in 2025 that requires Earned Wage Access (EWA) providers to be licensed under the state's Consumer Loan Law. This kind of state-level action, which mandates clear fee disclosures, prohibits interest charges, and requires at least one free access option, directly impacts how you or your partners offer certain consumer financial products in that state.

• Maryland: New EWA licensing law mandates one free access option and caps expedited delivery fees.
• General Trend: State regulators are actively incorporating 'abusive' practices into their statutes, similar to the federal Consumer Financial Protection Act (CFPA), to expand their enforcement reach.

Government infrastructure spending boosting regional commercial real estate lending.

The Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and other federal initiatives are a significant tailwind for the regional economies where UBSI operates, especially in the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. This government spending is translating directly into commercial real estate (CRE) and construction lending opportunities.

The political decision to fund these massive projects has made industrial and logistics hubs prime investment targets. This is clearly reflected in your loan book: UBSI's loan growth in the third quarter of 2025 was led by the Georgia, North Carolina, and Central Virginia markets, with annualized growth rates exceeding 20%. Your exposure to Non-Owner Occupied CRE is substantial, sitting at approximately 294% of Total Risk Based Capital at 3Q25. This high CRE exposure is a risk in a downturn, but it is currently a huge opportunity, fueled by politically-driven infrastructure investment in your core operating regions.

Finance: Monitor the political momentum behind raising the $100 billion asset threshold and model the potential compliance cost savings by the end of the first quarter of 2026.

United Bankshares, Inc. (UBSI) - PESTLE Analysis: Economic factors

You're looking for a clear map of the economic landscape United Bankshares, Inc. (UBSI) is navigating in 2025, and honestly, it's a story of managing margin pressure while capitalizing on regional stability. The bank has posted strong results, but the underlying economic currents-especially the cost of money-are still running against the industry grain. You need to see the numbers behind the optimism.

Expected 2025 Net Interest Margin (NIM) Pressure Due to Deposit Cost Increases

The biggest near-term risk for any regional bank is the cost of deposits, and while UBSI has performed well, this pressure is defintely building. Net Interest Margin (NIM) is the lifeblood of a bank, and UBSI actually saw an increase to 3.69% in Q1 2025 and then to 3.81% in Q2 2025, a strong result that bucked many industry trends. This strength was largely driven by a higher yield on loans and the accretive impact of the Piedmont Bancorp acquisition.

However, the underlying cost of funding is the headwind. The Q2 2025 results show that the NIM increase was partially offset by an increase in average interest-bearing deposits. This signals that the competition for customer cash is forcing rates up. Management's full-year 2025 guidance projects Net Interest Income (NII) to land between $1.050 billion and $1.065 billion. That's a tight range, and hitting the high end hinges on keeping deposit costs from rising too quickly. The bank has approximately 11% of its total deposits tied to a floating rate index, which means any Federal Reserve rate changes will hit the balance sheet quickly.

High, but Stabilizing, Inflation Impacting Operating Expenses and Borrower Credit Quality

Inflation is a double-edged sword: it drives up the cost of running the bank but can also push up asset values. For UBSI, the impact is most visible in non-interest expenses. Second quarter 2025 noninterest expense was $148 million, which is a 10% increase from the year-ago period. This jump is a direct result of inflation and wage pressure, specifically driven by higher employee compensation and general operating expenses.

Here's the quick math: Management expects full-year 2025 non-interest expense to be between $610 million and $625 million. You can't cut your way out of a tight labor market. On the credit side, the picture remains sound, but you need to watch the trend. Non-performing assets were low at just 0.22% of total assets in Q1 2025. However, the provision for credit losses was $35.0 million for the first half of 2025, a significant increase from $11.5 million in the first half of 2024, which included a merger-related provision of $18.7 million for non-PCD loans from the Piedmont acquisition. Net charge-offs were also up, hitting 0.14% annualized in Q1 2025.

• Non-interest expense: Projected between $610 million and $625 million for FY 2025.
• Q2 2025 Noninterest Expense: $148 million, up 10% year-over-year.
• Credit Provision: $35.0 million for H1 2025, up from $11.5 million in H1 2024.

Regional Economic Growth in the Mid-Atlantic Supporting Loan Portfolio Expansion

UBSI's footprint in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast is a core strength, and the regional economic outlook supports continued loan growth, even if it's at a modest pace. The Middle Atlantic region is forecast to see real GDP growth slow to 1.5% in 2025, before a slight rise to 1.6% in 2026. In the Upper South Atlantic, where UBSI also has a strong presence, Virginia is projected to grow at 1.9% and North Carolina at 2.1%.

This modest, but positive, growth is the engine for the bank's loan portfolio. Management's guidance for the full year 2025 is for loan and deposit growth in the low to mid-single digits on an annualized basis. This aligns perfectly with the regional GDP forecasts. In Q2 2025, linked-quarter loan balances increased by $187 million, driven by Commercial, Non Owner Occupied CRE, and Residential Real Estate loans. The regional economy is slowing, but it's still growing, which means UBSI can keep expanding its core business.

Mortgage Market Volatility Affecting Non-Interest Income from Origination Fees

The residential mortgage market is a tricky spot right now. While the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) forecasts an overall increase in total single-family mortgage origination volume to $2.3 trillion in 2025 (up from $1.79 trillion in 2024), UBSI is still feeling the volatility in its fee-based income. The industry-wide expectation is for purchase originations to increase by 13% to $1.46 trillion in 2025, supported by mortgage rates expected to end the year around 5.9%.

Despite this national tailwind, UBSI's non-interest income for the first half of 2025 was $61.0 million, which is a 2% decrease from the first half of 2024. This suggests that while the overall origination market is getting bigger, UBSI's specific mortgage origination fees are under pressure from competition or a shift in its business mix. The full-year 2025 non-interest income is guided to be between $120 million and $130 million. To hit that target, the bank must offset the mortgage fee weakness with gains in other areas, like wealth management or brokerage services, which were noted as contributing to higher noninterest income in Q3 2025.

• FY 2025 Non-Interest Income: Projected between $120 million and $130 million.
• H1 2025 Non-Interest Income: $61.0 million, a 2% decrease year-over-year.
• National Origination Forecast: Total volume expected to increase to $2.3 trillion in 2025.

United Bankshares, Inc. (UBSI) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Growing customer preference for digital-first banking and mobile access.

The shift to digital-first banking is not a future trend; it is the current reality, and it presents a dual challenge and opportunity for a regional bank like United Bankshares, Inc. (UBSI). You can see this clearly in the national adoption numbers for 2025: 72% of U.S. adults now use mobile banking apps, up from 52% in 2019. This preference is even more pronounced among key growth demographics; 80% of Millennials now primarily use mobile banking apps as their main channel. This means the bank's over 240 offices must be complemented by a seamless, top-tier digital experience.

The industry data shows that 64% of U.S. adults prefer mobile banking over traditional methods, and mobile usage is now 2.5 times more popular than online (browser-based) access. For UBSI, the risk is that a perception of a strong branch network without a matching digital platform could lead to customer attrition, especially among younger, high-value customers. That is a huge risk to ignore.

• 72% of U.S. adults use mobile banking apps in 2025.
• 80% of Millennials use mobile as their primary banking channel.
• Mobile banking is 2.5x more popular than web-based access.

Local community focus remains a strong differentiator against national banks.

Despite the digital wave, the community bank model, which is central to United Bankshares, Inc.'s identity, remains a powerful social differentiator. This focus on local relationships is what drove strong performance metrics for the sector in 2025. Community banks, generally, reported an 8.5% growth in net income and approximately 5% growth in loan and lease balances and domestic deposits in the second quarter of 2025, compared to the previous year.

This success is rooted in the small business segment, where the relationship model holds immense value. A significant 70% of small businesses stated they prefer or would prefer to bank with a community bank, even though only 31% currently do. This gap is a clear opportunity for UBSI, which operates over 240 offices across its footprint, to convert preference into market share by leveraging its local presence and relationship-driven lending programs, including its Small Business Administration (SBA) loan offerings. The human touch still wins when it comes to complex financing.

Workforce shortages in key banking roles like data science and compliance.

The social factor here is a critical talent drought, especially in specialized areas driven by technology and regulation. For a bank managing over $32 billion in consolidated assets, the shortage of skilled personnel in compliance and data science is a near-term risk. [cite: 7 in first search] A July 2025 report indicated that 77% of banks cite staffing (specifically Anti-Money Laundering, or AML, analysts) as a top challenge. [cite: 7 in first search]

The compliance talent crisis is defintely real. A staggering 43% of global banks reported in 2025 that essential regulatory work is going undone due to staffing gaps. [cite: 9 in first search] The average vacancy duration for senior compliance roles has stretched to 18 months, creating a backlog and increasing regulatory exposure. [cite: 9 in first search] This forces UBSI to either pay a significant premium for external talent or invest heavily in reskilling existing employees to handle the increasing complexity of data-driven risk management and regulatory oversight.

Increased demand for financial literacy programs among younger customers.

There is a clear social mandate for banks to step up on financial education, especially for younger generations who are digitally native but financially unconfident. An April 2025 survey found that 87% of U.S. adults agree that financial concepts should be taught in high school, and 72% believe they would be better off financially if they had learned the basics earlier. [cite: 6, 8 in first search] This regret signals a massive demand for accessible, practical financial education.

For UBSI, this is a powerful social responsibility lever. Data from a July 2025 report shows that 35% of Gen Z adults self-report low confidence in managing day-to-day finances, making them a prime target for educational outreach. [cite: 13 in first search] By offering resources like its 'Financial Focus' online courses and other financial education resources, United Bank is not just performing a community service; it is building brand loyalty with future high-net-worth customers. Community-based financial education programs have been shown to raise budgeting proficiency by 21% among low-income participants. [cite: 13 in first search]

United Bankshares, Inc. (UBSI) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Significant investment required to upgrade legacy core banking systems.

You can't run a modern bank on yesterday's technology, and for United Bankshares, Inc. (UBSI), the need to modernize its core banking system (the central software managing deposits, loans, and ledgers) is a major capital headwind. The cost of maintaining legacy infrastructure is often underestimated by 70-80%, and that hidden 'Innovation Tax' is real.

For UBSI, a significant portion of its technology spend is currently tied to integration following the Piedmont Bancorp, Inc. acquisition in early 2025. The total noninterest expense for the full fiscal year 2025 is projected to be between $598 million and $605 million, a range that includes substantial IT and integration costs. Specifically, the first nine months of 2025 included $12.7 million in merger-related expenses, much of which involves integrating disparate core systems and technology platforms.

The imperative is clear: migrating to a modern, cloud-native system is necessary to compete. Banks that successfully upgrade see a 45% boost in operational efficiency and can cut operational costs by 30-40% in the first year, which is the ultimate payoff for this massive investment.

Rising cybersecurity threats necessitate higher spending on defense and monitoring.

Cybersecurity is no longer an IT problem; it's a core business risk, and the costs are escalating. Global cybercrime costs are projected to reach $10.5 trillion annually by the end of 2025, making financial institutions the prime target.

In response, 88% of US bank executives plan to increase their IT and technology spending by at least 10% in 2025, with cybersecurity being the top area for budget increases. While UBSI does not break out its exact cybersecurity budget, the pressure is immense. The risk of a data breach for banks carries an average cost of about $5.90 million per breach, which is 28% higher than the global average. This forces UBSI to invest heavily in:

• Advanced threat detection systems.
• Continuous employee training and phishing defense.
• Compliance with evolving federal security standards.

Competition from FinTechs for consumer lending and payment services.

FinTechs (financial technology companies) are not just competitors; they are fundamentally changing customer acquisition economics. They are chipping away at UBSI's traditional revenue streams, especially in consumer lending and payments, by offering superior digital experiences.

The stark difference in customer acquisition cost (CAC) highlights the challenge: neo-banks can acquire a customer for just $5 to $15, while a traditional bank like UBSI might spend $150 to $350 per customer. FinTechs have only penetrated about 3% of the global banking and insurance revenue pools, but they are growing at a rate three times faster than incumbent banks.

This competitive pressure is most acute in:

• Digital Payments: Mobile wallets and instant payment apps are replacing traditional bank-issued cards for daily transactions.
• Consumer Lending: AI-powered underwriting models allow FinTechs to offer faster, often fairer, credit decisions.

To defend market share, UBSI must accelerate its own digital offerings, which ties directly back to the need for core system modernization.

Using AI for credit risk modeling and fraud detection to improve efficiency.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the new battleground for efficiency and risk management. For UBSI, the opportunity lies in using AI to automate and enhance two critical areas: credit risk and fraud detection. Honesty, if you're not using AI for fraud, you're defintely behind the curve.

Industry-wide, over 71% of banks are already utilizing AI to detect and mitigate cyber threats. This technology moves beyond simple rules-based systems to analyze massive data sets in real-time, identifying complex patterns indicative of fraud or credit default that a human analyst would miss.

Here's the quick math on the potential impact of AI-driven modeling:

The action is to move beyond pilot programs and integrate AI tools directly into the new core systems to realize these efficiency gains in the next fiscal year.

United Bankshares, Inc. (UBSI) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

Stricter enforcement of Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) rules.

The regulatory focus on financial crime compliance remains intense, even as the industry debates the efficiency of the current Bank Secrecy Act (BSA) and Anti-Money Laundering (AML) regime. For a regional bank like United Bankshares, Inc. (UBSI), the primary legal pressure here is the sheer operational cost of compliance, not just the risk of fines.

While global regulators levied $4.5 billion in bank fines in 2024, mostly for AML breaches, the real drain is the day-to-day spending. Financial institutions in the US and Canada collectively spend an estimated $61 billion annually on financial crimes compliance. This isn't just a big bank problem; mid-sized US banks allocate close to 50% of all risk management spending to BSA/AML compliance. That's a huge, non-revenue-generating expense.

There is a slight potential for relief, though. The proposed STREAMLINE Act, introduced in late 2025, aims to raise the Currency Transaction Report (CTR) filing threshold from $10,000 to $30,000. If that passes, it would defintely cut down on filing millions of low-value reports that overwhelm compliance teams.

Ongoing compliance costs related to the Dodd-Frank Act and its amendments.

The legacy of the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act continues to drive significant non-interest expenses, especially as new final rules take effect in 2025. United Bankshares, Inc.'s total Non-Interest Expense is projected to be in the range of $598 million to $605 million for the full fiscal year 2025, a figure that directly reflects the heavy lift of regulatory adherence.

Specific compliance deadlines in 2025 are forcing operational and IT overhauls:

• Digital Signage Rule: The FDIC's final rule requiring proper signage on digital platforms (websites, apps, ATMs) had a compliance date of May 1, 2025.
• Automated Valuation Models (AVMs): The final rule for AVMs used in mortgage lending is effective October 1, 2025.
• Small Business Data Collection: Tier 1 filers must begin collecting small business lending data by July 18, 2025, a massive undertaking to build new collection and reporting systems.

While the new Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) regulations' compliance date is currently paused due to ongoing litigation, the planning and resource allocation for these changes remain a constant, costly factor embedded in the non-interest expense budget.

Data privacy regulations, like state-level acts, complicating customer data handling.

The biggest near-term legal headache for a regional bank operating across multiple states is the fragmentation of data privacy laws. United Bankshares, Inc. operates in eight states and Washington, D.C., and the once-unified federal privacy framework under the Gramm-Leach-Bliley Act (GLBA) is dissolving.

In 2025 alone, eight new state privacy laws are taking effect, including in states like Delaware, New Jersey, and Maryland. Worse, states like Montana and Connecticut have amended their laws to remove the broad GLBA entity-level exemption. This means United Bankshares, Inc. must now comply with state privacy laws for a whole class of data-like website analytics and mobile app behavior-that was previously only subject to GLBA. This is a massive compliance multiplier.

Here's the quick math: managing data access, deletion, and correction requests across eight different state standards, plus federal rules, requires a complex, state-by-state data mapping and compliance system. One clean one-liner: The patchwork of state privacy laws is a compliance nightmare.

Litigation risk tied to loan defaults in a high-interest-rate environment.

In a prolonged high-interest-rate environment, the risk of loan defaults-and subsequent litigation-rises, but United Bankshares, Inc. appears to have managed this risk well into the 2025 fiscal year.

The company's credit quality metrics remain strong, indicating a lower near-term litigation exposure from mass defaults compared to the industry forecast. For all US leveraged loans, the default rate is projected to be between 3.25% and 3.75% in 2025. However, United Bankshares, Inc.'s non-performing assets (NPAs) were only $74.6 million as of June 30, 2025, representing a mere 0.23% of total assets.

The company is provisioning for credit losses, with a total provision expense planning assumption of $55 million for FY 2025. This includes a $19 million Day 2 CECL provision related to the Piedmont acquisition, showing a proactive approach to potential credit issues rather than a reaction to current distress. Their Allowance for Loan & Lease Losses (ALLL) stood at $308.0 million, or 1.28% of total loans, as of June 30, 2025. This strong reserve position mitigates the financial impact of any small-scale litigation arising from loan workouts or foreclosures.

What this estimate hides is the specific risk from commercial real estate (CRE) office loans, a segment facing national distress. To be fair, United Bankshares, Inc. has limited exposure here, with non-owner occupied office loans making up less than 5% of the total loan portfolio. Plus, their underwriting is disciplined, with the weighted average Loan-to-Value (LTV) for their top 60 office loans sitting at a conservative ~59% as of March 31, 2025.

United Bankshares, Inc. (UBSI) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Pressure from institutional investors for clearer Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) reporting

You are defintely seeing institutional investors intensify their focus on how regional banks like United Bankshares, Inc. (UBSI) manage and disclose environmental risks. This isn't a vague request anymore; it's a demand for quantifiable data, especially in the wake of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and global Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) frameworks. A 2025 survey showed that 87% of institutional investors are maintaining their ESG objectives, with 59% pivoting to thematic ESG investing, which includes low-carbon assets and energy transition.

For United Bankshares, Inc., this means a rising expectation for transparency beyond their current Scope 1 and 2 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions work. Investors are particularly focused on financed emissions-the Scope 3 emissions tied to your commercial loan book. Failing to provide this data is increasingly seen as a material risk, not just a compliance issue. You need to prepare for shareholder action if disclosures don't align with these heightened expectations.

Physical climate risks (e.g., severe weather) impacting loan collateral in coastal areas

The physical risk from severe weather is a clear and present danger to the value of your loan collateral, particularly in the coastal parts of your operating footprint, which spans the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast US. This is more than just a property damage risk; it's a direct hit to the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio on commercial and residential real estate loans.

The core risk comes from two angles: rising insurance costs and asset devaluation. In high-risk areas, property insurance premiums are skyrocketing or becoming unavailable, which increases the probability of borrower default and collateral value erosion. For example, a 2025 analysis found that firms with higher physical risk exposure (a +10 percentage point increase in asset damage rate) face a +22 basis point premium in their Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), which is a clear market signal that this risk is being priced in. United Bankshares, Inc. must integrate forward-looking climate analysis into its underwriting, moving beyond traditional environmental due diligence to assess property-level hazard scores for flood, heat, and storm surge. That's just smart banking.

Need to assess and disclose financed emissions from commercial loan portfolios

The biggest environmental challenge for United Bankshares, Inc. in 2025 is the quantification of its financed emissions. While the company is working on its own operational Scope 1 and 2 emissions, the bulk of a bank's climate impact-typically over 99%-is in its Scope 3 financed emissions.

The current industry struggle is the lack of standardized, high-quality client data, but this is not an excuse for inaction. Only a small fraction of major banks have set targets to reduce these critical Scope 3 emissions. For United Bankshares, Inc., with a total gross loan portfolio of $23.9 billion as of Q1 2025, the pressure is on to develop a robust methodology for measuring the carbon intensity of its commercial real estate and commercial & industrial loan segments.

Here is the quick math on the loan portfolio and the critical disclosure gap:

Opportunity to finance green infrastructure and energy transition projects in the region

The flip side of climate risk is a significant market opportunity in green financing. The energy transition is accelerating, and regional banks are perfectly positioned to finance localized clean energy and resilient infrastructure projects. The total private capital mobilization for infrastructure development globally reached $220 billion in 2025, showing the scale of the market.

For United Bankshares, Inc., this is a chance to diversify revenue and align with institutional investor mandates. You can capitalize on the demand for financing in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast for projects like:

• Financing utility-scale solar and wind projects in states like North Carolina and Virginia.
• Providing commercial loans for energy-efficient building retrofits in major metropolitan areas.
• Offering community development loans, which were approximately $200 million in a recent reporting period, for climate-resilient affordable housing.

The key is to structure specialized loan products that attract private capital by mitigating perceived risk, essentially acting as a 'green finance facility' within the existing commercial bank structure. This is a clear path to growth, not just a defensive measure.

Your next step: Finance: draft a sensitivity analysis on the expected 2025 net interest margin (NIM) based on a 25-basis-point rate change by Friday.