Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (He): Análise SWOT [Jan-2025 Atualizada]

Na paisagem dinâmica da energia havaiana, a Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (He) está em uma encruzilhada crítica de transformação, equilibrando seu papel de utilidade tradicional com objetivos ambiciosos de energia limpa. Como provedor de eletricidade dominante nas ilhas do Havaí, a empresa enfrenta um ambiente estratégico complexo marcado por transições de energia renovável, desafios regulatórios e aumento dos riscos climáticos. Essa análise abrangente do SWOT revela a intrincada dinâmica que a posição competitiva, explorando como a utilidade está navegando em interrupções tecnológicas, investimentos em infraestrutura e a necessidade premente de soluções de energia sustentável em um dos mercados de energia mais exclusivos dos Estados Unidos.

Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (He) - Análise SWOT: Pontos fortes

Provedor de eletricidade dominante no Havaí com posição do mercado de quase monopólio

Domínio do mercado: A Hawaiian Electric Industries controla aproximadamente 95% da distribuição de eletricidade nas Ilhas Havaianas, atendendo a mais de 450.000 clientes em Oahu, Maui e Ilha do Havaí.

Utilidade verticalmente integrada com recursos abrangentes

A Hawaiian Electric Industries opera através de três segmentos de negócios primários:

• Operações de utilidade elétrica
• Serviços bancários (através do banco elétrico havaiano)
• Infraestrutura e desenvolvimento de energia renovável

Forte compromisso com a transição de energia renovável

Portfólio de energia renovável:

Negócio de utilidade regulamentada estável

Métricas de desempenho financeiro:

• Receita anual: US $ 1,2 bilhão (2023)
• Lucro líquido: US $ 180 milhões (2023)
• Retorno sobre o patrimônio: 9,5%
• Rendimento de dividendos: 4,2%

Infraestrutura estratégica em ilhas havaianas

Ativos de infraestrutura:

Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (He) - Análise SWOT: Fraquezas

Alta dependência das importações de combustíveis fósseis para geração de eletricidade

A partir de 2023, as indústrias elétricas havaianas confiam fortemente em combustíveis fósseis importados para geração de eletricidade. As importações de combustíveis fósseis representam aproximadamente 70-80% da produção total de energia da empresa.

Diversificação geográfica limitada no mercado de energia havaiana

Indústrias elétricas havaianas opera principalmente dentro das ilhas havaianas, com operações concentradas em:

• Oahu (área de serviço primário)
• Ilha do Havaí
• Maui

Infraestrutura significativa vulnerabilidade a desastres naturais e riscos climáticos

A infraestrutura da empresa enfrenta riscos substanciais de:

• Potencial de furacão
• Atividade vulcânica
• ASSIMENTO DO NÍVEL DO MEIRO

Altos requisitos de despesas de capital para modernização da rede

Investimentos de modernização de grade para indústrias elétricas havaianas são estimadas em US $ 350-400 milhões anualmente. Esses investimentos incluem:

• Implementação de tecnologia de grade inteligente
• Infraestrutura de integração de energia renovável
• Atualizações do sistema de transmissão e distribuição

Restrições regulatórias sobre margens de lucro e estruturas de taxa

A Comissão de Serviços Públicos do Havaí impõe regulamentos estritos que afetam o desempenho financeiro da empresa:

Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (He) - Análise SWOT: Oportunidades

Acelerar o desenvolvimento de energia renovável, particularmente tecnologias solares e eólicas

As indústrias elétricas havaianas têm oportunidades significativas na expansão de energia renovável. A partir de 2023, o Havaí tem um Portfólio de energia renovável de 30%, com potencial para alcançar 100% de energia renovável até 2045.

Potencial crescente de armazenamento de energia e investimentos em resiliência à rede

Os investimentos em armazenamento de energia apresentam oportunidades críticas para as indústrias elétricas havaianas.

• Capacidade atual de armazenamento da bateria: 185 MW
• Investimento de armazenamento de bateria projetado: US $ 450 milhões até 2026
• Orçamento de modernização da grade: US $ 300 milhões nos próximos três anos

Mercado emergente de infraestrutura de carregamento de veículos elétricos

Potencial para integração de recursos energéticos distribuídos

Os recursos energéticos distribuídos (DERS) representam uma oportunidade significativa de mercado para as indústrias elétricas havaianas.

• Penetração solar residencial atual: 18%
• Investimento potencial de integração Der: US $ 200 milhões
• Capacidade de DER esperada até 2027: 500 MW

Aumentando o interesse do cliente em soluções de energia sustentável e limpa

Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (He) - Análise SWOT: Ameaças

Políticas intensas de escrutínio regulatório e limitação de taxa potencial

As indústrias elétricas havaianas enfrentam desafios regulatórios significativos com políticas de limitação de taxas em potencial. A partir de 2023, a Comissão de Serviços Públicos do Havaí impôs mandatos de energia renovável estritos que exigem 100% de energia limpa até 2045. Os custos de conformidade da Companhia são estimados em US $ 4,2 bilhões em investimentos em infraestrutura.

Aumentando a concorrência de fornecedores alternativos de energia e energia solar na cobertura

A penetração solar na cobertura no Havaí atingiu 34% da geração de eletricidade residencial. O cenário competitivo mostra:

• Os custos de instalação solar diminuíram 55% nos últimos 5 anos
• Participação no mercado solar na cobertura crescendo em 8,3% ao ano
• Perda de receita potencial estimada em US $ 276 milhões por ano

Vulnerabilidade aos impactos das mudanças climáticas e eventos climáticos extremos

A localização geográfica do Havaí expõe a energia elétrica havaiana a riscos climáticos significativos:

Altos custos de manutenção e substituição de infraestrutura

A infraestrutura envelhecida da Havaian Electric requer investimento substancial:

• Idade média do ativo da grade: 35 anos
• Orçamento de manutenção anual: US $ 214 milhões
• Investimento de modernização da grade: US $ 678 milhões planejados até 2027

Potenciais interrupções tecnológicas na geração e distribuição de energia

As tecnologias emergentes apresentam desafios significativos para os modelos de utilidade tradicionais:

Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE) - SWOT Analysis: Opportunities

Access federal funding through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act for grid hardening and climate resilience.

You have a significant opportunity to de-risk your capital expenditure (CapEx) program by tapping into federal funds, which directly lowers the cost burden on your customers. Hawaiian Electric's Climate Adaptation Transmission and Distribution Resilience Program has already secured a crucial federal grant of $95 million under the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA).

This federal money matches the $95 million in customer funding for a total $190 million program approved by the Public Utilities Commission (PUC) in early 2024. That's a 50% cost reduction for ratepayers on this critical work. The five-year plan focuses on hardening the grid, which includes replacing and strengthening 2,100 poles on critical circuits.

Here's the quick math on the near-term CapEx: The company's total projected CapEx for 2025 is approximately $400 million. The wildfire safety strategy alone is budgeted at $137 million for 2025. The company is also proactively seeking more funds, having applied for a second-round IIJA grant for its Grid Modernization Strategy, seeking the maximum award size of $100.0 million. This is smart; you should always use OPM (Other People's Money) for system upgrades.

Accelerate the shift to 100% renewable energy, reducing fuel cost volatility and meeting state mandates.

The state mandate to reach 100% renewable energy by 2045 is a massive capital investment driver, but it's also a clear roadmap to reduced fuel cost exposure. Hawaiian Electric is ahead of schedule, having achieved a consolidated Renewable Portfolio Standard (RPS) of 36% in 2024, already surpassing the mandated 30% goal for 2020 and accelerating toward the 40% milestone for 2030.

This progress is driven by a strong pipeline of new projects. The company has 16 new renewable energy projects underway, which collectively will add 460 megawatts (MW) of solar energy and nearly three gigawatt-hours (GWh) of energy storage. These projects are crucial because they stabilize rates and reduce reliance on imported fossil fuels, which are highly volatile in the island economy.

2024 RPS Progress by Island:

• Hawaii Island: 58.7%
• Maui County: 41.1%
• O'ahu: 30.8%

Develop advanced microgrids and distributed energy resources to improve system resilience.

Shifting to a more decentralized grid architecture-using microgrids and Distributed Energy Resources (DER)-is the best defense against severe weather and climate risks. Hawaiian Electric is actively working to integrate these resources, which include customer-sited solar and battery systems.

The company is on a strong trajectory to exceed its distributed solar goals. New private rooftop solar installations totaled 61 MW in 2024 alone. About 43% of single-family homes served by Hawaiian Electric now have rooftop solar, which is a huge base to build upon. The goal is to have 125,000 private rooftop solar and energy storage systems (totaling 1,186 MW) by 2030, a target they are on track to exceed.

This is a win-win: customers get better resilience and lower bills, and the utility gains a more flexible, less centralized grid. The partnership with the U.S. Department of Energy on the Energy Transitions Initiative Partnership Project (ETIPP) is specifically helping to map optimal microgrid locations on O'ahu, directly translating resilience planning into actionable infrastructure development.

Potential for a favorable legislative or regulatory solution to cap wildfire-related liabilities.

The most significant opportunity for financial stabilization is the legislative and regulatory movement to limit future wildfire liability. The Hawaii State legislature passed Senate Bill 897 (SB 897) in May 2025.

This bill is a game-changer because it allows for two things: an aggregate liability cap on economic damages from future catastrophic wildfires, and a mechanism for securitization to finance wildfire safety improvements. The securitization process, if approved by the PUC, would allow the utility to issue long-term bonds-a cheaper way to borrow-to fund the expanded Wildfire Safety Strategy.

The three-year Wildfire Safety Strategy is projected to cost $350 million in total, with $137 million budgeted for 2025 work. Using securitization for this CapEx would significantly reduce the cost of borrowing compared to traditional utility financing, which is defintely a credit positive.

What this estimate hides is that the securitization mechanism from SB 897 is designed to lower these customer costs even further.

Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HE) - SWOT Analysis: Threats

Catastrophic Legal Settlements or Judgments

You are looking at a utility that, until recently, faced an existential threat of bankruptcy, reminiscent of Pacific Gas & Electric Company's 2019 filing. The primary threat remains the legal fallout from the 2023 Maui wildfires, which has forced a massive financial restructuring.

The good news is that Hawaiian Electric Industries, Inc. (HEI) has largely mitigated the immediate bankruptcy risk by securing a global settlement. The total liability exposure for HEI and its subsidiaries is capped at approximately $1.99 billion, which is a massive number but manageable over time. To be fair, this is a significant step back from the initial fear of uncapped liability.

The settlement is structured with four equal annual installments of roughly $479 million each. The first payment is expected in early 2026. Here's the quick math: HEI secured net proceeds of approximately $557.7 million from a September 2024 common stock offering, plus they held $479 million in restricted cash by Q1 2025, specifically earmarked for this first installment. The real threat now shifts to funding the subsequent three installments without causing a liquidity crisis or excessive shareholder dilution.

Regulatory Action: PUC Scrutiny and Potential Utility Breakup

The regulatory environment in Hawaii is defintely a double-edged sword right now. While the Public Utilities Commission (PUC) has not moved to break up the utility, its power to impose stricter performance standards and control cost recovery is a major threat to profitability. The PUC must approve the recovery of all wildfire mitigation costs, and any denial would directly hit the bottom line.

The Hawaii State Legislature passed critical bills in 2025 that both help and hurt. Senate Bill (SB) 897 is a positive, as it directs the PUC to establish an aggregate liability cap for economic damages from future wildfires. But the PUC still holds the keys to the company's financial health by controlling the rate-setting process.

Hawaiian Electric is currently navigating a critical alternative rate rebasing process under Performance-Based Ratemaking (PBR). They are trying to reset target revenues to recover elevated costs before the next multiyear rate period starts in 2027. If the PUC rejects this proposal, the utility will struggle to earn its authorized Return on Equity (ROE) of 9.5%, which was already only 7.2% in Q2 2025, according to core ROE figures. That's a huge gap to close.

Increasing Frequency and Severity of Climate Change-Driven Events

The physical threat from climate change is now a core financial risk. Hawaii's increasing exposure to severe weather, like hurricanes and wildfires, requires monumental capital investment simply to maintain service and avoid future catastrophic liabilities.

Hawaiian Electric's response is a massive increase in capital expenditures (CapEx). The company expects to spend approximately $400 million on CapEx in the 2025 fiscal year. This is just the start. Total CapEx for the three-year period from 2026 to 2028 is projected to be between $1.8 billion and $2.4 billion. That scale of spending-a potential 75% increase in CapEx from 2025 to 2026 alone-is staggering for a utility of this size.

The 2025-2027 Wildfire Safety Strategy alone is estimated to cost up to $450 million, with approximately $137 million budgeted for work in 2025. More than half of this 3-year plan, about $180 million, is targeted for Maui County, the highest-risk area. If this infrastructure spending is not fully approved for recovery by the PUC, the utility will be absorbing billions in costs that should be borne by the rate base, which would be a severe financial blow.

Downgrades by Credit Rating Agencies

The utility's credit rating is the direct link between its past liabilities and its future cost of capital. Following the Maui wildfires, HEI's credit ratings were downgraded to sub-investment grade, or 'junk' status. While rating agencies have shown some optimism in 2025, the company is still paying a premium to borrow money.

In June 2025, S&P Global Ratings upgraded HEI's long-term issuer credit rating to 'B+' from 'B-', and Fitch Ratings upgraded it to 'BB-' from 'B'. This is an improvement, but it is still deep in speculative territory. The lower rating means the company's debt is considered higher risk, which translates directly into higher interest rates on new debt.

This is a real-world financial constraint. For example, in September 2025, Hawaiian Electric Company aimed to raise $500 million through a sale of senior notes, explicitly classified as a 'high yield' (junk-bond) issuance. This higher cost of borrowing makes the already massive CapEx plan of $1.8 billion to $2.4 billion for grid hardening significantly more expensive to finance, which ultimately strains customer rates and shareholder returns.