Breaking Down Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. (PBLA) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors

You are defintely looking at a high-stakes, binary moment for Panbela Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharma where the financial picture is entirely secondary to the clinical pipeline, but still critically important for runway. The last reported quarter, Q3 2024, showed a net loss of $7.2 million and R&D expenses of $6.0 million, a burn rate that makes their cash position of only $142,000 as of September 30, 2024, look terrifying. Here's the quick math: that cash balance was a major problem, but the $12.0 million financing commitment from Nant Capital, secured in late 2024, buys them essential time to execute on their 2025 milestones. The real catalyst, and thus the near-term risk/opportunity, is the interim survival analysis for the Phase 3 ASPIRE trial of ivospemin in metastatic pancreatic cancer, which is expected in Q1 2025-that data will either validate the lower-than-expected event rate observed so far, potentially signaling a better-than-expected outcome, or it will force a complete re-evaluation of the company's valuation and strategy. Good data means the financing was a brilliant bridge; bad data means the working capital deficit of $15.0 million becomes an immediate crisis. This is a pure-play biotech gamble, and the clock is ticking to that Q1 2025 readout.

Revenue Analysis

You're looking at Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. (PBLA), a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, so the first and most critical takeaway is this: Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. (PBLA) does not generate product revenue. Their financial health is entirely dependent on capital raises and strategic financing, not sales. For the 2025 fiscal year, or based on the trailing twelve months of data, the primary revenue figure from product sales is $0.

This isn't a red flag for a biotech at this stage; it's the business model. They are in the research and development (R&D) phase, pouring capital into clinical trials like the Phase III ASPIRE trial for ivospemin (SBP-101) in metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (mPDAC). The interim analysis for this trial is a major catalyst, expected in Q1 2025.

Primary Capital Sources, Not Revenue Streams

Since product revenue is non-existent, the true financial story is in their ability to secure funding. These are the real near-term financial 'streams' keeping the lights on:

• Strategic Financing: Securing a commitment of up to $12.0 million from Nant Capital after Q3 2024 is a lifeline, indicating a potential for future scientific collaborations.
• Public Offerings: Net proceeds from a public offering in Q1 2024 brought in approximately $8.1 million, funding the pipeline.
• Grants/Other Income: Any minor revenue comes from non-core sources like grants or interest, which are negligible compared to their burn rate.

Honestly, the year-over-year revenue growth rate is 0% from a traditional product sales perspective. The real growth metric is the expansion of their drug pipeline and the successful advancement of their polyamine metabolic inhibition (PMI) technology, which you can learn more about in their Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. (PBLA).

The Real Financial Focus: Expense Segments

For a clinical-stage company like Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. (PBLA), you need to track where the capital goes, not where the revenue comes from. The contribution of different business segments to overall revenue is 0% for all segments, so we look at the expense breakdown. Here's the quick math on their latest reported quarterly burn rate, which is the best indicator of their 2025 operational focus:

The R&D expense of $6.0 million in Q3 2024 is the single most important number, representing the vast majority of their operational spend. This tells you that nearly 85% of their capital is being directly applied to their clinical programs, like the ASPIRE trial and the Phase I study of CPP-1X-S in STK11 mutant non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). What this estimate hides is that R&D costs will defintely fluctuate based on patient enrollment milestones and the timing of the interim data analysis.

Near-Term Risk and Action

The significant change in their 'revenue stream' is the shift from a pure cash burn to a cash infusion via strategic financing, which is a positive signal. Still, with a net loss of $7.2 million in Q3 2024, their cash balance of $142,000 as of September 30, 2024, was dangerously low before the Nant Capital commitment. The near-term risk remains cash runway. Your clear action is to monitor the interim data from the ASPIRE trial in Q1 2025 and any subsequent financing announcements, as these are the only things that will change the stock's valuation in the short term.

Profitability Metrics

You need to understand that for a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company like Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. (PBLA), traditional profitability metrics are mostly irrelevant-or, more accurately, they are intentionally negative. The company is in the business of spending money on research and development (R&D) to create a future product, not selling one today.

The core takeaway is this: Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. currently operates at a loss, which is expected, but the 2025 forecast shows a potential shift toward positive operating income.

• Gross profit, operating profit, and net profit margins are heavily negative in the near-term.
• The focus is on managing the burn rate-the speed at which cash is used-not generating profit.

For the fiscal year 2025, analysts project a significant change in the company's financial profile. Here is the quick math on the current situation versus the 2025 forecast, which is based on an estimated revenue milestone or partnership deal.

In the third quarter of 2024 (Q3 2024), the company reported a net loss of approximately $7.2 million. Since the company is pre-commercial, its gross profit margin is effectively 0%, as total revenue is negligible. The operating loss for that quarter was approximately $7.1 million (R&D of $6.0 million plus General and Administrative expenses of $1.1 million). That's a massive negative margin, but it's defintely the cost of advancing their Phase III ASPIRE trial.

The real story is in the operational efficiency trends and the 2025 outlook.

• R&D Expense Management: R&D expenses actually decreased slightly in Q3 2024 to $6.0 million from $6.7 million in the prior year quarter, showing a focus on cost management even as the Phase III trial progresses.
• G&A Stability: General and administrative expenses remained flat at approximately $1.1 million in Q3 2024 compared to the same period in 2023.

The key opportunity for investors is the projected financial inflection point in 2025. Analyst consensus estimates an annual revenue of approximately $35 million for the fiscal year ending December 31, 2025. Assuming a conservative operating expense run-rate of around $28.4 million for the full year 2025, this revenue could translate to a positive operating profit.

What this estimate hides is the inherent risk of a clinical-stage company: the $35 million revenue is highly dependent on achieving a clinical or regulatory milestone, such as the interim analysis for the Phase III ASPIRE trial, which is expected in Q1 2025. If that milestone is missed or the data is poor, the revenue will not materialize, and the company will revert to a high-burn, negative-margin profile. For a deeper look at the risks and opportunities tied to these milestones, you can continue reading our full analysis at Breaking Down Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. (PBLA) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Debt vs. Equity Structure

You need to know how Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. (PBLA) is funding its operations, especially as a clinical-stage biotech company with high research and development (R&D) costs. The short answer is: the company relies heavily on equity and new financing commitments, mostly because its shareholder equity is deep in the negative.

As of the third quarter of 2024, the latest data available, Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. carries a total debt of approximately $6.4 million. This is a manageable amount in absolute terms, but the context of the balance sheet is what matters most for investors.

Here's the quick math on their debt components:

• Short-Term Debt (including the current portion of long-term debt): $3.2 million
• Long-Term Debt: $3.19 million

The total current liabilities, however, were much higher at $20.1 million, which includes accounts payable and accrued expenses from their clinical trials and general operations. This is a crucial distinction: their total debt is low, but their short-term obligations are significant.

The company's Debt-to-Equity (D/E) ratio is what truly flags the financial situation. The trailing twelve months (ttm) D/E ratio stands at -0.35, or -35.2%. This negative ratio is not a sign of low debt; it's a direct result of having negative shareholder equity, which was approximately $-18.2 million. Negative equity means the company's total liabilities exceed its total assets-a serious indicator of financial distress. The company is technically insolvent.

To be fair, the average D/E ratio for the Biotechnology industry is low, around 0.17, and the median for Pharmaceutical Preparations is about 0.64. Panbela Therapeutics, Inc.'s negative ratio is far outside this norm, signaling a much higher risk profile than its peers. This is a red flag you can't ignore.

Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. has been balancing its funding primarily through equity. They filed a follow-on equity offering in April 2025, which is a common way for pre-revenue biotech firms to raise cash, but it also dilutes existing shareholders. More recently, in Q3 2024, they secured a $12.0 million financing commitment from Nant Capital, which provides a much-needed capital injection. This commitment is a lifeline, but it doesn't fundamentally fix the negative equity problem. They are trading future dilution for immediate operational runway, a common strategy in this sector.

What this estimate hides is the burn rate. Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. reported a Q3 2024 net loss of $7.2 million, so that new financing will be consumed quickly by R&D and general expenses. The balance between debt and equity is less about optimization and more about survival right now. For a deeper dive into the company's prospects, check out Breaking Down Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. (PBLA) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Liquidity and Solvency

You need to know if Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. (PBLA) has enough cash to keep the lights on and fund its clinical trials. The short answer is that the company is operating with extremely tight liquidity, a common but high-risk profile for a clinical-stage biopharma company. The latest available data, reflecting the trailing twelve months (TTM) through Q3 2024, shows a clear reliance on external financing to cover significant operating burn.

The core measure of short-term financial health is the Current Ratio (current assets divided by current liabilities). Panbela Therapeutics, Inc.'s TTM Current Ratio is a very low 0.26. This means for every dollar of short-term debt coming due, the company has only about 26 cents in assets it can convert to cash within the next year to pay it. The Quick Ratio, which strips out less-liquid assets like inventory, is also 0.26, which tells you inventory is defintely not a factor here. A ratio below 1.0 signals a high risk of not meeting near-term obligations without raising new capital.

Working capital-the difference between current assets and current liabilities-is deeply negative. With current assets around $5.17 million and current liabilities estimated near $19.88 million (based on the 0.26 ratio), the working capital deficit is approximately -$14.71 million. This deficit is driven by a high level of accounts payable, which stood at $10.95 million in the latest balance sheet. Simply put, they owe much more than they can quickly pay.

The cash flow statement overview confirms the liquidity pressure and reveals the company's funding strategy:

• Operating Cash Flow: This is the cash generated or used by the core business. For the TTM period, Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. used -$15.57 million in cash from operations. This negative burn is expected for a company focused on research and development (R&D) with no product revenue.
• Investing Cash Flow: This is essentially zero, as the company is not spending on large capital expenditures like property or equipment. All focus is on the clinical pipeline.
• Financing Cash Flow: This is the lifeline. In Q3 2024 alone, cash flow from financing activities was a positive $9.28 million, primarily from issuing new stock or debt. This is how they bridge the operating deficit.

The primary strength is the ability to consistently raise capital through financing activities, but this is also the biggest risk. The company's liquidity position is a serious concern; the low current ratio and high cash burn mean they are fully dependent on the capital markets. Any hiccup in raising new funds could immediately jeopardize their ability to continue operations or fund their clinical trials, including their lead assets, Ivospemin (SBP-101) and Flynpovi. To understand who is providing this capital and what the dilution risk looks like, you should be Exploring Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. (PBLA) Investor Profile: Who's Buying and Why?

Here's the quick math: they need to raise about $16 million per year just to maintain the current operational pace, and that doesn't account for any unexpected trial costs or potential debt repayments. The ongoing negative operating cash flow means the clock is always ticking until the next capital raise.

Valuation Analysis

You're looking at Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. (PBLA) and trying to figure out if this micro-cap biotech is a deep-value play or a value trap. My take is direct: traditional valuation metrics are broken here, but the stock's -94.40% price decline over the last 12 months tells you all you need to know about near-term risk.

As of November 2025, Panbela Therapeutics is trading around $0.0111 per share, with a tiny market capitalization (market cap) of only about $53.89 thousand. This is not a company you value on earnings; it's a clinical-stage company. You need to look at the cash burn and pipeline milestones, not ratios. That said, let's look at the numbers.

The Broken Ratios: P/E, P/B, and EV/EBITDA

For a company like Panbela Therapeutics, the most common metrics are essentially useless. They have no meaningful revenue, so their earnings are negative due to high research and development (R&D) costs for their lead compound, SBP-101. This is typical for a biotech before a major clinical trial success or commercial launch.

Here's the quick math on why the ratios are skewed:

• Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: This is reported as a negative value, around -0.01. A negative P/E simply means the company is losing money, which is expected.
• Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: The P/B ratio is reported at approximately -0.00. This figure signals that the company's market value is significantly lower than its book value, or that book value is negative, which is a massive red flag for financial health.
• Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA): This is generally 'Not Applicable' (N/A) because the company has negative Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EBITDA). The Enterprise Value (EV) itself is about $1.72 million, which is much higher than the market cap, suggesting they carry a significant amount of net debt or liabilities.

The negative P/E and P/B ratios defintely indicate that, on a fundamental basis, the market believes the company's assets are worth less than its liabilities, or that future earnings will not justify the current structure.

Near-Term Price Trend and Dividend Reality

The stock price trend over the last year has been brutal. Panbela Therapeutics' stock has declined by a staggering -94.40% over the past 12 months, with a 52-week range spanning from a low of $0.0002 to a high of $0.4729. This volatility and downtrend are common for stocks facing delisting risks or significant dilution events, especially after a reverse stock split in early 2024. The stock is currently trading on the OTC Markets, not the Nasdaq, which limits liquidity and investor interest.

As for income investors, forget it. Panbela Therapeutics does not pay a dividend, so both the dividend yield and payout ratio are 0.00%.

Analyst Consensus and Valuation

Analyst consensus is mixed and, frankly, confusing due to the extreme price action and reverse splits that make older targets obsolete. Some technical analysis suggests a 'Strong Sell,' while other, often older, reports show a high 'Buy % Consensus' that is not grounded in the current reality. The most recent actionable price target from a major firm was set at $0.00, which implies a potential -100.00% downside from the time of that rating. This is the ultimate 'undervalued' or 'overvalued' question: the market has effectively priced this stock as being close to zero.

The core issue is a lack of revenue and the need for continuous capital raises to fund clinical trials. Investors are betting on the success of the drug pipeline, not on current financials. If you want to dive into the core mission that drives this speculation, you can read more about the company's focus here: Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. (PBLA).

To summarize the valuation picture:

Actionable Insight: Panbela Therapeutics is not undervalued in the traditional sense; it is a highly speculative bet on clinical trial success, priced for a high probability of failure or significant future dilution. Treat it like an option, not a stock.

Risk Factors

You're looking at Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. (PBLA), a clinical-stage biotech, so you have to start with the most critical risk: liquidity. This isn't a company generating revenue; it's burning cash to fund drug trials. The near-term financial picture is defintely challenging, and it all maps to the need for a major clinical catalyst in 2025.

Based on the Q3 2024 filing, which sets the stage for 2025, Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. (PBLA) faces a severe working capital deficit. As of September 30, 2024, the company's current liabilities of $20.1 million significantly exceeded its current assets of $5.2 million, resulting in a working capital deficit of $15.0 million. That's a massive hole to fill, and it means the company is constantly seeking new capital to keep the lights on and the trials running.

Here's the quick math on the burn: the net loss for Q3 2024 was $7.2 million, driven largely by Research and Development (R&D) expenses of approximately $6.0 million. With cash reserves at only about $142,000 at the end of Q3 2024, the company was essentially out of runway before the new financing. This is the definition of a going concern risk-the fundamental uncertainty about the company's ability to continue operating.

The company's reliance on successful clinical data to raise future capital is the biggest operational risk. This is the classic binary outcome risk for a biotech: success means a huge stock jump and easy financing; failure means a catastrophic drop. The Phase III ASPIRE trial for their lead asset, ivospemin, is the key. The interim analysis is expected in Q1 2025, and full enrollment is anticipated by Q2 2025. A negative or even inconclusive result from that Q1 2025 data would immediately jeopardize their ability to secure the necessary funding for the rest of the year.

Plus, there's the external, regulatory risk. Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. (PBLA) was delisted from Nasdaq in March 2024 and is currently quoted on the OTCQB market. They are actively trying to relist on a national exchange, but this is contingent on meeting minimum financial and share price requirements, which is a constant battle given the stock's volatility and the bearish sentiment, with a forecasted average price in November 2025 around $0.3194.

Mitigation and Near-Term Opportunities

The immediate mitigation strategy is the $12.0 million strategic loan commitment secured from Nant Capital in late 2024. This capital infusion is crucial, as it extends the company's cash runway into 2025, buying them time to reach those critical clinical milestones. The first tranche of $2.85 million was funded in October 2024.

The most important opportunity is the ASPIRE trial's interim data in Q1 2025. The lower-than-expected event rate in the trial is a positive sign, suggesting patients might be experiencing prolonged survival, which is a potential indicator of efficacy. This is the one-liner: Good data is their only path to sustainable financing. You can read more about their long-term focus here: Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. (PBLA).

To summarize the key risks and opportunities for 2025:

• Financial Risk: Working capital deficit of $15.0 million, requiring constant capital raises.
• Clinical Risk: Binary outcome of the Phase III ASPIRE trial interim analysis in Q1 2025.
• Mitigation: $12.0 million strategic loan from Nant Capital provides a short-term lifeline.
• Regulatory Risk: Need to relist on a national exchange to improve visibility and liquidity.

Growth Opportunities

You're looking for a clear map of what drives Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. (PBLA)'s future, and honestly, for a clinical-stage biotech, the growth story is all about the pipeline catalysts, not current revenue. The company's core growth driver is its multi-targeted approach to Polyamine Metabolic Inhibition (PMI), which aims to reset dysregulated biology in aggressive cancers and orphan diseases.

The near-term opportunity hinges on two late-stage assets: ivospemin (SBP-101) for first-line metastatic pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (mPDAC) and Flynpovi™ for familial adenomatous polyposis (FAP). These are high-unmet-need areas, so a positive clinical outcome could drastically change the valuation.

Pipeline Milestones and Growth Drivers

The biggest catalyst for 2025 is the Phase 3 ASPIRE trial for SBP-101 in mPDAC. The interim data analysis for this global, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial is expected as soon as Q1 2025. This is the make-or-break moment for the lead product.

The trial's event rate has been lower than anticipated, which is a good sign for patients, as it suggests a potential for prolonged survival. Also, Panbela Therapeutics has positioned itself for growth through product innovation across multiple indications, including a Phase 1 study of CPP-1X-S in STK11 mutant non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) with data expected by mid-2025.

• SBP-101 (Ivospemin): Phase 3 interim data expected in Q1 2025 for mPDAC.
• Flynpovi™ (CPP-1X/Sulindac): Late-stage program for the orphan disease FAP.
• CPP-1X-S: Phase 1 data in STK11 mutant NSCLC expected by mid-2025.

Financial Projections and Near-Term Risk

As a pre-revenue, clinical-stage company, Panbela Therapeutics does not have consensus analyst revenue or earnings estimates for the 2025 fiscal year. This is typical, but it means you must focus on the cash runway. Here's the quick math on the cash burn:

The company's Q3 2024 net loss was approximately $7.2 million, driven by $6.0 million in Research & Development (R&D) expenses. While the cash position was low at $142,000 as of September 30, 2024, the company secured a $12.0 million financing commitment from Nant Capital. This financing is critical, but it only buys near-term time until the next major clinical milestone.

What this estimate hides is the potential for dilution if the company needs to raise more capital before a major positive data readout. They defintely need a win in Q1 2025.

Competitive Advantages and Strategic Positioning

Panbela Therapeutics' competitive advantage is rooted in its unique mechanism of action against a difficult target: polyamine metabolism. SBP-101 is a proprietary polyamine analogue that has shown promising signals in earlier trials for mPDAC, a cancer with a historically poor prognosis.

In a Phase 1b/2 study, SBP-101 combined with standard chemotherapy delivered a median overall survival (OS) of 14.6 months and an objective response rate (ORR) of 48%. For context, this OS figure is significantly higher than the typical standard of care, which historically has shown only modest incremental benefits. If the Phase 3 ASPIRE trial confirms this benefit, Panbela Therapeutics will be strongly positioned against competitors in the mPDAC market, a huge unmet medical need. You can read more about their core philosophy here: Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of Panbela Therapeutics, Inc. (PBLA).

Next Step: Set a calendar alert for the Q1 2025 ASPIRE trial interim data release, as this is the single most important action-driving event for your investment thesis.