Brasilagro - Companhia Brasileira de Propledades Agrícolas (LND): Analyse du Pestle [Jan-2025 MISE À JOUR]

Dans le paysage dynamique de l'agriculture brésilienne, Brasilagro apparaît comme un joueur pivot naviguant des intersections complexes des marchés mondiaux, de l'innovation technologique et des défis environnementaux. Cette analyse complète du pilon dévoile les dimensions à multiples facettes qui façonnent la trajectoire stratégique de l'entreprise, explorant comment les cadres politiques, les fluctuations économiques, les attentes sociétales, les progrès technologiques, les contraintes juridiques et les impératifs environnementaux influencent collectivement l'écosystème opérationnel de Brasilagro. En disséquant ces facteurs externes critiques, nous illuminons les voies complexes qui définissent le potentiel de la croissance et la résilience de cette entreprise agricole proéminente dans un monde de plus en plus interconnecté.

Brasilagro - Companhia Brasileira de Properdades agrícolas (LND) - Analyse des pilons: facteurs politiques

Politique agricole brésilienne soutenant l'agriculture agricole à grande échelle et l'agriculture axée sur les exportations

Le gouvernement brésilien a mis en œuvre des politiques spécifiques pour soutenir la production agricole à grande échelle:

Aspect politique	Détails spécifiques	Impact financier
Lignes de crédit agricoles	Système national de crédit rural (SNCR)	268,4 milliards de rands alloués au financement agricole en 2023
Incitations à l'exportation	Exonérations fiscales pour les exportations agricoles	Réduction d'environ 35% de la taxation d'exportation pour les produits agricoles

Incitations gouvernementales pour le développement des terres agricoles et les pratiques agricoles durables

Les incitations clés du gouvernement comprennent:

• Programme ABC (agriculture à faible teneur en carbone) fournissant 3,5 milliards de R de crédits subventionnés
• Allégements fiscaux pour les investissements agricoles durables
• Réduction des taux d'intérêt pour les projets de conservation de l'environnement

Instabilité politique potentielle affectant l'investissement agricole

Facteurs de risque politiques d'investissements agricoles:

Catégorie de risque	Impact potentiel	Probabilité
Politiques de réforme agraire	Redistribution potentielle des terres	Moyen (estimation de 25% de probabilité)
Changements réglementaires	Modifications potentielles de la fiscalité agricole	Élevé (estimé 45% de probabilité)

Environnement réglementaire complexe

Complexité réglementaire dans le secteur agricole brésilien:

• Licence environnementale: 14 étapes réglementaires différentes pour le développement des terres
• Délai moyen pour obtenir des permis de terres agricoles: 18-24 mois
• Coûts de conformité estimés à 3 à 5% de l'investissement agricole total

Brasilagro - Companhia Brasileira de Properdades Agrícolas (LND) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs économiques

Le rôle important du Brésil sur les marchés mondiaux des produits agricoles

Le Brésil se classe comme le plus grand exportateur mondial de soja, café, sucre et bœuf. En 2023, les exportations agricoles du Brésil ont atteint 125,4 milliards de dollars, ce qui représente 14,3% de la valeur d'exportation totale du pays.

Marchandise	Volume d'exportation (2023)	Part de marché mondial
Soja	95,4 millions de tonnes métriques	35.2%
Café	43,8 millions de sacs	28.5%
Sucre	34,6 millions de tonnes métriques	22.7%

Les prix des produits de base fluctuants ont un impact sur les sources de revenus de Brasilagro

La volatilité des prix des matières premières influence considérablement la performance financière de Brasilagro. En 2023, les prix du soja variaient de 12,50 $ à 16,75 $ par boisseau, créant une incertitude substantielle des revenus.

Marchandise	2023 Prix de prix	Prix ​​moyen
Soja	12,50 $ - 16,75 $ / boisseau	14,62 $ / boisseau
Maïs	4,75 $ - 6,25 $ / boisseau	5,50 $ / boisseau

Attractivité des investissements étrangers dans les terres agricoles brésiliennes

Les terres agricoles brésiliennes attirent des investissements étrangers importants. En 2023, les investissements directs étrangers dans les secteurs agricoles brésiliens ont atteint 4,3 milliards de dollars, avec un prix moyen de 3 750 $ par hectare.

Métrique d'investissement	Valeur 2023
Investissement agricole étranger	4,3 milliards de dollars
Prix ​​moyen des terrains par hectare	$3,750
Taux de croissance des investissements étrangers	7.2%

Volatilité des taux de change affectant le commerce agricole international

Les fluctuations du taux de change réel brésilien (BRL) ont un impact sur la compétitivité des exportations agricoles. En 2023, le taux de change BRL / USD variait entre 4,85 et 5,35, créant des défis commerciaux importants.

Paire de devises	2023 Plage de taux de change	Taux moyen
BRL / USD	4.85 - 5.35	5.10
BRL / EUR	5.30 - 5.85	5.57

Brasilagro - Companhia Brasileira de Properdades Agrícolas (LND) - Analyse des pilons: facteurs sociaux

Demande mondiale croissante de pratiques agricoles durables et respectueuses de l'environnement

Selon le rapport mondial sur le marché de l'agriculture durable, la taille du marché était évaluée à 13,5 milliards USD en 2022 et devrait atteindre 23,7 milliards USD d'ici 2030, avec un TCAC de 7,2%.

Métriques agricoles durables	Valeur 2022	2030 valeur projetée
Taille du marché mondial	13,5 milliards USD	23,7 milliards USD
Taux de croissance annuel composé	7.2%	7.2%

Augmentation de la sensibilisation des consommateurs à la production alimentaire et à la durabilité agricole

Selon une enquête Nielsen IQ 2023, 78% des consommateurs dans le monde sont prêts à payer une prime pour les produits agricoles produits de manière durable.

Préférences de durabilité des consommateurs	Pourcentage
Les consommateurs sont prêts à payer la prime pour les produits durables	78%
Les consommateurs priorisent l'impact environnemental	65%

Pressions sociales concernant l'utilisation des terres et les droits autochtones dans les régions agricoles

Au Brésil, environ 13,5% du territoire national est officiellement reconnu comme des terres autochtones, couvrant 505 territoires autochtones en 2023.

Métriques des terres autochtones	Valeur
Pourcentage de territoire brésilien	13.5%
Nombre de territoires autochtones	505

Chart démographique affectant le travail agricole et la dynamique de la main-d'œuvre

La main-d'œuvre agricole du Brésil a connu des changements importants, la population rurale passant de 32% en 2000 à environ 15,6% en 2022.

Indicateurs de décalage démographique	2000	2022
Pourcentage de population rurale	32%	15.6%
Âge moyen des travailleurs agricoles	45,5 ans	48,3 ans

Brasilagro - Companhia Brasileira de Properdades agrícolas (LND) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs technologiques

Technologies d'agriculture de précision avancée améliorant la gestion des cultures

Investissement dans la technologie agricole de précision: Brasilagro a alloué 12,5 millions de R $ en 2023 pour les mises à niveau des infrastructures technologiques.

Type de technologie	Taux d'adoption	Amélioration de l'efficacité
Machines guidées par GPS	78%	15,3% d'augmentation du rendement des cultures
Capteurs du sol	62%	22,7% d'optimisation des ressources
Technologie de taux variable	55%	18,6% de réduction des coûts

Systèmes de surveillance des satellites et des drones pour l'évaluation des terres agricoles

Couverture de surveillance des satellites: 185 000 hectares sous surveillance satellite continue en 2023.

Technologie de surveillance	Zone surveillée (hectares)	Fréquence de l'évaluation
Imagerie par satellite haute résolution	135,000	Bihebdomadaire
Surveillance des drones	50,000	Hebdomadaire

Biotechnologie agricole émergente et techniques d'amélioration des cultures génétiques

Investissement de recherche en biotechnologie: 8,7 millions de Rons dédiés à la recherche sur l'amélioration génétique en 2023.

Type de culture	Focus de modification génétique	Amélioration des rendements projetés
Soja	Résistance à la sécheresse	25% ont augmenté la résilience
Maïs	Résistance aux ravageurs	30% réduit l'utilisation des pesticides

Plateformes numériques pour la gestion des données agricoles et la prise de décision

Investissement de plate-forme numérique: 5,3 millions de RS ont dépensé pour les systèmes de gestion des données en 2023.

Fonctionnalité de plate-forme	Taux d'adoption des utilisateurs	Amélioration de l'efficacité de la décision
Surveillance des cultures en temps réel	85%	40% plus rapide
Analytique prédictive	72%	35% d'allocation améliorée des ressources

Brasilagro - Companhia Brasileira de Properdades Agrícolas (LND) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs juridiques

Règlements environnementales strictes régissant l'utilisation des terres agricoles

Le code forestier du Brésil (loi 12.651 / 2012) oblige les exigences légales spécifiques pour la préservation des terres:

Biome	Exigence de réserve légale	Zone de conservation permanente
Amazone	80% des terres	35% de la superficie totale de propriété
Cerrado	35% des terres	20% de la superficie totale de propriété
Forêt de l'Atlantique	20% des terres	30% de la superficie totale de propriété

Cadres juridiques complexes de propriété foncière et d'acquisition

Restrictions de propriété foncière étrangère:

Catégorie	Détente maximale	Exigence légale
Étranger	50 modules	Permis de résidence brésilienne
Entité d'entreprise étrangère	Limité par la Constitution brésilienne	Enregistrement avec incrustation

Exigences de conformité pour les pratiques agricoles durables

Mesures clés de la conformité juridique:

• Licence environnementale: obligatoire pour toutes les opérations agricoles
• Suivi des émissions de carbone: requis pour les propriétés de plus de 1 000 hectares
• Protocoles de conservation des sols: surveillance stricte par MAPA (ministère de l'Agriculture)

Règlements sur le commerce international affectant les exportations agricoles

Règlement sur les exportations	Exigence de conformité	Pénalité pour non-conformité
Certificat phytosanitaire	Obligatoire pour toutes les exportations agricoles	Suspension d'exportation
Enregistrement d'exportation MAPA	Vérification de la documentation requise	Pénalités financières jusqu'à 100 000 R $
Normes agricoles de l'OMC	Protocoles de qualité et de traçabilité stricts	Commerce des restrictions

Brasilagro - Companhia Brasileira de Properdades Agrícolas (LND) - Analyse du pilon: facteurs environnementaux

Impact du changement climatique sur la productivité agricole et la gestion des terres

Selon le rapport national du changement climatique du Brésil, les régions agricoles du Brésil connaissent des augmentations de température de 1,4 ° C entre 2000 et 2022. Les zones opérationnelles de Brasilagro à Mato Grosso et à Bahia ont vu des réductions de rendement des cultures de 12,6% en raison de la variabilité climatique.

Région	Augmentation de la température (° C)	Impact du rendement des cultures (%)
Mato Grosso	1.6	-14.3
Bahia	1.2	-10.9

Accent croissant sur les pratiques agricoles durables et régénératives

Brasilagro a investi 22,7 millions de rands de rands dans les technologies agricoles durables. Les efforts de séquestration en carbone couvrent 37 500 hectares avec un compensation annuelle potentielle de carbone de 215 000 tonnes métriques.

Pratique durable	Investissement (R $)	Couverture terrestre (hectares)
Agriculture sans jusqu'à ce que	12,500,000	25,000
Séquestration du carbone	10,200,000	37,500

Gestion des ressources en eau et stratégies de conservation

Brasilagro met en œuvre des techniques d'irrigation de précision, réduisant la consommation d'eau de 34,5% entre les opérations agricoles. La conservation annuelle de l'eau s'élève à 8,7 millions de mètres cubes.

Technique de gestion de l'eau	Économies d'eau (%)	Volume annuel enregistré (M³)
Irrigation goutte à goutte	28.6	5,600,000
Surveillance de précision	5.9	3,100,000

Conservation de la biodiversité dans les paysages agricoles

Brasilagro maintient 42% des fonds fonciers en tant que réserves d'écosystèmes indigènes. Les efforts de conservation protègent 15 espèces menacées de 67 500 hectares d'habitat naturel préservé.

Métrique de conservation	Superficie totale (hectares)	Espèces en voie de disparition protégées
Réserves d'écosystème indigènes	67,500	15
Pourcentage de conservation	42%	N / A

BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas (LND) - PESTLE Analysis: Social factors

Increasing global consumer demand for organic, traceable, and ESG-compliant food products.

You need to recognize that the global consumer mindset has fundamentally shifted; it's no longer just about yield, but about provenance and sustainability (ESG). The Brazilian organic food market is a clear indicator of this trend, showing explosive growth that BrasilAgro must capitalize on. The market reached a size of USD 3.7 Billion in 2024 and is projected to skyrocket to USD 15.5 Billion by 2033, reflecting a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 16.5% over the forecast period.

This isn't a niche anymore. Consumers are actively seeking products free from synthetic pesticides and genetically modified organisms (GMOs). The challenge, and the opportunity, is pricing: 83% of organic food consumers in Brazil still perceive these products as more expensive than conventional alternatives, which means you have to justify that premium through impeccable traceability and certification. That's where the ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) compliance becomes a competitive edge, not just a compliance cost.

• Organic market CAGR (2025-2033): 16.5%
• 2024 Market Size: USD 3.7 Billion
• Consumer perception: 83% say organic is more expensive

Acute labor shortages in rural areas accelerate the necessity for large-scale mechanization and automation.

The labor market in rural Brazil is at a critical juncture, and it's forcing the hand of large-scale operators like BrasilAgro toward automation. Rural-to-urban migration has created an acute labor shortage, with a staggering 70% of rural properties reporting difficulties in hiring qualified personnel as of early 2025. This shortage is compounded by employee turnover in the agricultural sector, which has increased by 35% in the last decade alone.

The solution is capital investment in smart farming. The Brazil agricultural machinery market reached a valuation of USD 3.2 Billion in 2025, directly reflecting this accelerated mechanization drive. The government is even pushing this, with the New Industry Brazil initiative allocating BRL 546.6 Billion to boost agro-industrial chains through 2029, with specific targets to increase family farming mechanization rates from 25% to 28% by 2026. You defintely need to be ahead of that curve, not just meeting it.

Metric (2025 Data)	Value/Amount	Strategic Implication for BrasilAgro
Rural Properties Reporting Hiring Difficulty	70%	Mandates investment in high-capacity, automated equipment.
Brazil Agricultural Machinery Market Value	USD 3.2 Billion	Confirms the strong market for mechanization solutions.
Government Program Allocation (New Industry Brazil)	BRL 546.6 Billion (Total by 2029)	Signals long-term government support for technological adoption.

Social pressure and NGO scrutiny on land use and Indigenous/Quilombola community rights near development projects.

Land use in Brazil is a high-stakes social and political issue, and the scrutiny from non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and international bodies is intense. For a company focused on land acquisition and development, managing this social license to operate is paramount. Recent government actions highlight the political sensitivity, such as the demarcation of ten Indigenous lands announced in November 2025, which brings the total Indigenous land area to approximately 117.4 million hectares, or about 13.8% of Brazil's territory.

The rights of Quilombola communities-descendants of formerly enslaved people-are also a major focus. Brazil is home to 1,330,186 Quilombola people across over 7 thousand communities. The government signed an Action Plan for the National Quilombola Titling Agenda in April 2025, acknowledging the need to expedite a process that can take 15 to 20 years. Any development near these areas faces immediate, high-profile social pressure and legal risk. Your land portfolio strategy must now incorporate a rigorous social due diligence (SDD) process that goes beyond simple legal title.

Urbanization drives domestic food demand, but also increases the political focus on food inflation.

Brazil is highly urbanized, meaning domestic food demand is concentrated in cities, but this concentration also makes food price volatility a political flashpoint. The Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for the Food and Beverages group rose 1.17% in March 2025, contributing 45% of the monthly inflation index. This is a huge political problem because it directly impacts the average citizen's wallet.

The political focus on food inflation is clear: by March 2025, 58% of Brazilians reported reducing food purchases due to rising prices, and among the poorest strata, this figure rose to 67%. The cumulative IPCA over 12 months was 5.53% in April 2025, with food and beverages outpacing the general index, rising 7.25% over the same period (February 2025 data). This pressure means the government will continue to focus on policies that prioritize domestic supply and price stability for essential food crops, sometimes conflicting with export-focused, large-scale agriculture.

BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas (LND) - PESTLE Analysis: Technological factors

Widespread adoption of precision agriculture tools, including satellite monitoring of over 185,000 hectares.

The core of BrasilAgro's operational efficiency in the 2025 fiscal year hinges on its advanced use of precision agriculture (PA) technologies, essentially treating every square meter of land as a unique investment. You can't manage what you don't measure, and for a large-scale operator, that means moving beyond simple field-level data.

The company's significant scale allows for the cost-effective deployment of these tools across its vast holdings. For the 2025/2026 crop year, BrasilAgro estimates a total planted area of 172,610 hectares, which is the direct area benefiting from satellite monitoring and data-driven input application. This is a massive area to manage, and satellite-based monitoring is the only way to do it efficiently. This technology provides real-time data on vegetation health (NDVI), soil conditions, and water stress, enabling surgical-like management of resources.

Here's the quick math: optimizing inputs across 172,610 hectares means even a small percentage reduction in fertilizer or water use translates into millions of dollars in savings and a significant environmental benefit.

AI adoption is projected to increase crop yields by up to 20% by 2025 through optimized input use.

Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the engine translating raw satellite data into actionable decisions, moving agriculture from reactive to predictive. For the Brazilian market, AI adoption is projected to boost average crop yields by 15% to 20% by 2025, while also cutting input costs by up to 25% through smart resource management.

BrasilAgro is already mapping this national trend into its own forecasts. The company projects a total grain and cotton production of 442,587 tons for the 2025/2026 cycle, which is a substantial 21% increase from the estimated 366,059 tons in the prior 2024/2025 crop year. That 21% jump aligns perfectly with the upper bound of the industry's AI-driven yield increase projections. It's not just luck; it's optimized planting, targeted pest control, and predictive analytics at scale.

Metric	2024/2025 Estimate (Tons)	2025/2026 Projection (Tons)	Projected Increase
Total Grain & Cotton Production	366,059	442,587	21%
Soybean Output	(Not explicitly provided, using 2025/2026 projection)	64,872	(Specific increase not provided, but factored in 21% total)
Corn Output (First Crop)	(Not explicitly provided, using 2025/2026 projection)	99,230	(Specific increase not provided, but factored in 21% total)

Continued investment in biotechnology for crops like soy and corn to enhance drought and pest resistance.

Biotechnology is the silent partner to digital tech, providing the resilient seeds that make the precision input decisions worthwhile. The Brazilian agricultural biotechnology market in 2025 is focused on genetically improved crop varieties, especially soy and corn, tailored for the country's unique environmental challenges.

For BrasilAgro, which relies heavily on these two crops, this means:

• Drought-Tolerant Varieties: Mitigating the impact of inconsistent rainfall, a critical risk factor noted in the 2025/2026 forecasts.
• Pest-Resistant Seeds: Reducing the need for chemical pesticides, which lowers input costs and supports the company's environmental responsibility goals.
• Higher Yield Potential: Biotech seeds are the foundation that allows precision agriculture to extract maximum output from every hectare.

This biological investment is defintely a necessary hedge against the increasing climate volatility that has impacted past crop years, like the 3% reduction in planted area reported in the 2024/2025 crop year due to adverse weather.

Digital literacy gaps remain a barrier for smaller producers, but large operators benefit from data platforms.

The technology landscape is not uniform across Brazil, creating a clear competitive advantage for large, sophisticated operators like BrasilAgro. While the company benefits from scalable, insightful analytics for thousands of plots, smaller producers face significant structural barriers.

The primary obstacles come down to access and education. Barriers include high upfront costs for equipment and software, plus a significant digital literacy gap. Honestly, the data shows the scale of the problem: approximately 80% of rural producers in Brazil have only primary education, which is a major hurdle for adopting complex digital platforms. Back in 2017, about 3.5 million rural establishments-around 70%-still lacked internet access, though connectivity is improving.

This digital divide is a strategic opportunity for BrasilAgro. It means the company's investment in data platforms, skilled agronomists, and IT infrastructure creates a deep, defensible moat, allowing them to achieve superior yields and lower costs compared to the majority of the market. Smallholders are struggling to adopt, but large corporate farms are flying with data.

BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas (LND) - PESTLE Analysis: Legal factors

New General Environmental Licensing Act (Law No. 15,190/2025) Aims to Streamline Licensing, But Faces Legal Challenges

You're watching Brazil's regulatory environment closely, and the new General Environmental Licensing Act, Federal Law No. 15,190/2025, is a major shift. This law, enacted on August 8, 2025, is meant to bring a national standard to what was a fragmented system, which is defintely a win for predictability. But it's not a simple green light.

The core benefit for BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas (LND) is the potential for faster development. The law introduces new, streamlined licenses and, critically, exempts certain low-impact agricultural activities from the licensing requirement altogether, provided the property is compliant with environmental laws. This cuts bureaucracy for your core business of cultivating species and managing extensive or semi-intensive livestock. Still, the law faced 63 presidential vetoes and is already seeing a high potential for judicialization-legal challenges that could slow down its implementation. The law itself won't fully enter into force until February 2026, which is 180 days after its publication.

• Law No. 15,190/2025 enacted on August 8, 2025.
• Exempts licensing for extensive/semi-intensive livestock on compliant properties.
• New Special Environmental License (LAE) is already in force via Provisional Measure No. 1,308/2025.

Increased Severity of Criminal Sanctions for Operating a Potentially Polluting Activity Without a Valid License

While the new licensing law aims to simplify things, the flip side is a sharp increase in the risk of non-compliance. The same law amends the Environmental Crimes Act, significantly raising the stakes for operating without a valid environmental license. This is a clear signal: the government wants fast, compliant projects, but they will punish non-compliance more harshly. You need to be certain your internal compliance is flawless, especially when converting land.

Here's the quick math on the risk: The penalty for operating a potentially polluting activity without a license now includes imprisonment of six months to two years, or a fine, or both. That prison sentence is doubled if the activity required an Environmental Impact Study (EIA). This is a material risk for any large-scale land development, so internal audits must be a priority for all land acquisitions and conversions in the 2025 fiscal year.

EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) Takes Full Effect in December 2025, Requiring Proof of Deforestation-Free Supply Chains for Soy and Cattle Exports

The European Union Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) is no longer a distant threat; it's a near-term reality. For large operators like BrasilAgro, the regulation becomes binding on December 30, 2025. This means every batch of soy and cattle products you export to the EU must have a Due Diligence Statement proving it did not come from land deforested after the December 31, 2020 cutoff.

The EU is Brazil's second-largest trading partner, and EUDR-covered products accounted for a massive 30% of Brazil's total trade value in 2023. So, compliance is vital for market access. The good news is that compliance is achievable. For example, a September 2025 study showed that 97.21% of soybean farms in Mato Grosso-a state responsible for approximately 27% of Brazil's total soybean output-already meet the EUDR's criteria. Your action is clear: ensure your traceability systems are fully integrated with the EUDR Information System for submitting Due Diligence Statements.

EUDR Compliance Factor	Requirement/Deadline	Impact on Brazilian Agribusiness (2023-2025)
Enforcement Date (Large Operators)	December 30, 2025	Mandatory due diligence for 30% of Brazil's total trade value.
Deforestation Cutoff Date	December 31, 2020	Requires geolocation data and proof of zero-deforestation since this date.
Soybean Compliance (Mato Grosso)	Must be deforestation-free	97.21% of farms in this key state are already compliant as of September 2025.

Tax Reform Introduces New Consumption Taxes (IBS/CBS) in 2026, with a 60% Rate Reduction for Agricultural Products

Brazil's long-awaited consumption tax reform is moving forward, and it's a net positive for agribusiness cash flow. Complementary Law No. 214/2025, sanctioned in January 2025, establishes the new dual Value-Added Tax (VAT) system: the Contribution on Goods and Services (CBS) and the Tax on Goods and Services (IBS). The transition starts in 2026 with a 1% test rate (0.9% CBS and 0.1% IBS).

The major opportunity for BrasilAgro is the preferential tax treatment. Agricultural products (excluding the national basic food basket, which gets a zero rate) will be subject to a 60% reduction in the standard IBS and CBS rates. This reduction, coupled with the new full non-cumulative system-where virtually all taxed acquisitions generate credits-should significantly boost your cash flow and reduce the final tax cost on your production. Plus, the law allows for payment postponement on the supply/import of agricultural inputs, meaning you only pay the tax when you sell your final product. That's a huge working capital benefit.

BrasilAgro - Companhia Brasileira de Propriedades Agrícolas (LND) - PESTLE Analysis: Environmental factors

Climate change is causing delayed rainy seasons, increasing the risk for the high-value safrinha (second corn crop).

You're operating in a climate that is fundamentally changing, and that change is hitting your core operations, especially the second corn crop, or safrinha. The data shows Brazilian agricultural regions have already experienced temperature increases of approximately 1.4°C between 2000 and 2022, which is driving climate variability.

This variability is not abstract; it's a direct threat to your bottom line. BrasilAgro's operational areas have already seen crop yield reductions of 12.6% due to climate unpredictability. A delayed rainy season shortens the crucial planting window for the safrinha, increasing the risk of the crop maturing during the dry season, so every day matters.

The financial exposure is clear. For the 2025/2026 crop year, the estimated cost of production for Milho Safrinha is high at R\$4,211/ha, a significant capital outlay directly exposed to a shortened, riskier growing cycle. Honestly, optimizing that planting window is the single most important action to protect your margins this year.

Major trading partners like Cargill have committed to eliminating deforestation and land conversion from their supply chains by 2025.

The market is shifting from voluntary compliance to mandatory exclusion; this is a hard deadline. Major trading partners, including Cargill, have accelerated their commitment to eliminate deforestation and land conversion from their direct and indirect supply chains in Brazil by the end of 2025.

This commitment covers key row crops like soy, corn, wheat, and cotton-all central to BrasilAgro's portfolio. To be fair, Cargill estimates that 93.72% of its total sourced volume in Brazil is already Deforestation and Conversion Free (DCF), but that remaining 6.28% is where the scrutiny will focus.

This means your traceability and land-use history must be impeccable. Any farm property with recent, unsanctioned land conversion will become a stranded asset, locked out of major export channels. The global supply chain is defintely closing the door on non-compliant land.

Climate-driven changes may negatively impact 51% of agricultural land in the Amazon and Cerrado by 2030.

The long-term regional climate outlook is a major strategic risk. Projections indicate that the vicious cycle of climate change and deforestation could severely damage or wipe out nearly 60% of the Amazon forest by 2030. This ecological collapse would fundamentally alter rainfall patterns across the entire agricultural belt, including the Cerrado.

The shift is already driving land-use change in the Cerrado biome, a key operating region. The need to find more resilient land is pushing new agricultural expansion into areas that are climatically marginal, increasing long-term operational risk.

Here's the quick math on the projected land-use changes in the Cerrado by 2046, showing the scale of the climate-driven migration and conversion:

Land-Use Change Category	Projected Area Added by 2046	Climate Risk Factor
New Cropland	129 thousand $\text{km}^2$	Projected higher annual temperatures (26-30°C)
New Pasture	418 thousand $\text{km}^2$	Expansion into areas with less reliable precipitation

The company's land development model is directly exposed to increased scrutiny on land conversion versus yield optimization.

BrasilAgro's business model-acquiring underutilized land, transforming it for higher value crops, and selling it for a capital gain-is inherently exposed to the land conversion debate. Your strategy combines operational value with land sales, which generated a net revenue of R\$1.5 billion in the 2021/2022 harvest year.

The market is now demanding proof that value creation comes from yield optimization, not just land-use change. You must clearly demonstrate that your land development is a sustainable transformation of degraded pasture, not a conversion of native vegetation. The scrutiny is intense.

The company is making the right moves by investing R\$22.7 million in sustainable agricultural technologies. Plus, your carbon sequestration efforts, covering 37,500 hectares, are a tangible counter-narrative to the land conversion risk.

Actionable Insight: Quantify and publish the yield increase from your sustainable technology investment versus the capital gain from land sales in the 2025 fiscal year to re-anchor the narrative on optimization.

• Invest R\$22.7 million in ag-tech.
• Manage 37,500 hectares for carbon sequestration.
• Mitigate climate risk through technology.