Good Times Restaurants Inc. (GTIM): 5 forças Análise [Jan-2025 Atualizada]

Mergulhe no cenário estratégico do Good Times Restaurants Inc. (GTIM), à medida que desvendamos a complexa dinâmica que molda seus negócios através da estrutura das cinco forças de Michael Porter. Em um mercado gastronômico competitivo casual, onde as margens são as preferências de barbear e o consumidor mudam como areia movediça, entender essas forças estratégicas se torna crucial para a sobrevivência e o crescimento. Das negociações de fornecedores às expectativas dos clientes, pressões competitivas a possíveis interrupções no mercado, essa análise revela os intrincados desafios e oportunidades que o GTIM enfrenta no cenário da indústria de restaurantes em constante evolução.

Good Times Restaurants Inc. (GTIM) - As cinco forças de Porter: poder de barganha dos fornecedores

Número limitado de fornecedores de ingredientes de alimentos e bebidas

A partir de 2024, o Good Times Restaurants enfrenta um mercado de fornecedores concentrado, com aproximadamente 3-4 grandes empresas de distribuição de alimentos que controlam 65% do suprimento de ingredientes de restaurante:

Custos mais altos potenciais para requisitos de menu especializados

Ingredientes conceitos de hambúrguer e asas mostram volatilidade significativa de preços:

• Os preços da carne bovina flutuaram 12-18% em 2023
• Os preços das asas de frango aumentaram 22% ano a ano
• Os custos dos produtos lácteos aumentaram 9,3% nas cadeias de suprimentos de restaurantes

Dependência de fornecedores -chave

Good Times Restaurants depende de fornecedores especializados com requisitos específicos de qualidade:

Vulnerabilidade a flutuações de preços de mercado

Principais alterações de preço de mercado para ingredientes primários:

• Preços da carne bovina: US $ 5,89 por libra no quarto trimestre 2023
• Preços das asas de frango: US $ 2,47 por libra no quarto trimestre 2023
• Índice de produtos lácteos: 237.4 em dezembro de 2023

Good Times Restaurants Inc. (GTIM) - As cinco forças de Porter: poder de barganha dos clientes

Base de consumo sensível ao preço em segmento de restaurante rápido casual

O Good Times Restaurants Inc. opera em um mercado em que a sensibilidade ao preço do consumidor é fundamental. De acordo com o relatório da indústria de restaurantes 2023 do NPD Group, 68% dos consumidores priorizam o valor ao jantar fora.

Alta concorrência no mercado de restaurantes de hambúrguer e asas

O cenário competitivo demonstra poder significativo de barganha do consumidor. A partir de 2023, o segmento de restaurantes de hambúrguer inclui mais de 200 redes nacionais e regionais.

• Margem de lucro médio do restaurante de hambúrguer: 6-8%
• Tamanho total do mercado de restaurantes de hambúrguer nos EUA: US $ 97,4 bilhões em 2023
• Número de concorrentes de restaurantes de hambúrguer: 212 marcas nacionais

Alternativas de jantar do cliente

Os consumidores têm várias opções de comutação nas categorias de restaurantes. O relatório de 2023 da Technomic indica que 47% dos consumidores estão dispostos a mudar de jantar com base no preço ou valor percebido.

Dinâmica de preferência do consumidor

Good Times Restaurants enfrenta um poder significativo de barganha de clientes com 72% dos consumidores priorizam a qualidade e o valor em suas experiências gastronômicas.

• Gastos médios para restaurantes de consumo: US $ 2.375 anualmente
• Frequência de jantar fora: 4,2 vezes por semana
• Porcentagem disposta a mudar de restaurantes: 47%

Good Times Restaurants Inc. (GTIM) - As cinco forças de Porter: rivalidade competitiva

Cenário competitivo de mercado

A partir do quarto trimestre 2023, o Good Times Restaurants Inc. opera 35 locais totais de restaurantes em Colorado e Califórnia. O cenário competitivo revela uma pressão de mercado significativa de vários segmentos de restaurantes.

Fatores de intensidade competitivos

• Margens médias de lucro de restaurante em segmento casual rápido: 3-5%
• Custo de aquisição de clientes: US $ 25 a US $ 35 por novo cliente
• Taxa anual de crescimento da indústria de restaurantes: 2,4%
• Custos médios de inicialização do restaurante: US $ 275.000 a US $ 425.000

Métricas competitivas diretas

Good Times Restaurants enfrenta a concorrência direta de:

• Buffalo Wild Wings: 1.250 locais em todo o país
• Restaurantes locais de hambúrguer: aproximadamente 40-50 nas regiões do mercado primário
• Concorrentes do segmento de rápido casual: mais de 200 marcas regionais

Barreiras de entrada de mercado

Métricas de diferenciação competitiva

Fatores de posicionamento exclusivos para os restaurantes do Good Times incluem:

• Itens de menu proprietários: 7-9 receitas exclusivas
• Preço médio do menu Ponto: US $ 8,50 a US $ 12,75 por item
• Participação do programa de fidelidade do cliente: 22-28% da base total de clientes

Good Times Restaurants Inc. (GTIM) - As cinco forças de Porter: ameaça de substitutos

Paisagem de alternativas para refeições

A partir de 2024, o mercado de substituição de restaurantes apresenta desafios competitivos significativos:

Serviços de entrega de alimentos

Estatísticas do mercado de entrega de alimentos para 2024:

• Valor de mercado total: US $ 154,3 bilhões
• Taxa de crescimento anual: 10,5%
• Plataformas de entrega de alimentos online: 73 principais serviços
• Porcentagem de consumidores usando entrega: 68%

Análise de mercado do kit de refeição

Tendências gastronômicas conscientes da saúde

• Consumidores que procuram opções mais saudáveis: 62%
• Mercado de Alternativas de refeições à base de plantas: US $ 7,3 bilhões
• Crescimento do segmento de alimentos orgânicos: 5,6% anualmente

Refeições preparadas para supermercado e cozinha caseira

Good Times Restaurants Inc. (GTIM) - As cinco forças de Porter: ameaça de novos participantes

Requisitos de capital para startup de restaurantes

O investimento inicial para uma startup de restaurante varia de US $ 275.000 a US $ 425.000, com um requisito de capital inicial médio de US $ 375.000, de acordo com os dados 2023 da National Restaurant Association.

Barreiras de reconhecimento de marca

Good Times Restaurants Inc. mantém 14 locais totais de restaurantes A partir do quarto trimestre 2023, criando uma barreira de entrada moderada para novos concorrentes.

Desafios de conformidade regulatória

• Custos de conformidade com segurança alimentar: US $ 12.500 - US $ 25.000 anualmente
• Taxas de inspeção do departamento de saúde: US $ 250 - US $ 800 por inspeção
• Custos anuais de renovação de licenciamento: US $ 1.500 - US $ 3.200

Desafios de localização e lucratividade

Os custos de aluguel de localização do restaurante primário têm uma média de US $ 45 por pé quadrado nos mercados urbanos, representando uma barreira significativa à entrada para novos empreendedores de restaurantes.

Good Times Restaurants Inc. (GTIM) - Porter's Five Forces: Competitive rivalry

You're looking at the competitive rivalry force for Good Times Restaurants Inc. (GTIM), and honestly, the data from the third quarter of fiscal 2025 paints a clear picture: this is a tough fight, especially in the value-conscious space.

The company operates in the highly fragmented and competitive QSR (Quick Service Restaurant) and fast-casual burger segments. This intense competition directly pressures top-line performance. We saw this play out clearly in the fiscal Q3 2025 results, where same-store sales declines are directly linked to competitor discounting and promotional activity. For the quarter ended July 1, 2025, the Good Times brand saw a significant same-store sales decrease of 9.0% year-over-year, while Bad Daddy's Burger Bar was down 1.4%. To be fair, the Good Times brand missed the prior year's comparable quarter sales by a wide margin.

GTIM is small-scale, with only about 70 total locations, compared to national chains. Specifically, Good Times Restaurants Inc. owned, operated, or licensed 40 Bad Daddy's Burger Bar restaurants and 30 Good Times Burgers & Frozen Custard restaurants as of Q3 FY2025. This small footprint means GTIM lacks the national scale and marketing budget of its larger rivals, making it harder to absorb traffic dips. The Good Times concept is geographically concentrated, with 28 of its 30 locations primarily in Colorado, which helps operating and marketing efficiencies, but also limits its national reach.

The Bad Daddy's concept competes in the full-service gourmet burger space, which has high differentiation but also many rivals. While Bad Daddy's cost discipline kept its restaurant-level operating profit margin steady at 14.4% of sales for the quarter, the 1.4% same-store sales decline shows the pressure in this segment. Meanwhile, the Good Times QSR brand saw its restaurant-level operating profit margin compress to 11.2% of sales, partly due to the 9.0% same-store sales drop and elevated costs. Management is actively responding by hiring a new Senior Director of Marketing, Jason Murphy, and planning a new brand campaign at Good Times titled 'Colorado Native Burgers'.

Here's a quick look at the Q3 FY2025 performance split between the two concepts, which highlights where the rivalry pressure is most acutely felt:

The competitive environment is forcing GTIM to focus intensely on internal controls to maintain profitability despite external sales headwinds. You can see the difference in how the two concepts are handling the pressure:

• Bad Daddy's maintained a relatively stable RLOP margin of 14.4% due to solid cost controls.
• Good Times saw its RLOP margin decrease by 530 basis points year-over-year to 11.2%.
• Combined General & Administrative (G&A) expenses were reduced to 5.9% of total revenues, down 120 basis points year-over-year.
• Management flagged that they expect to run G&A between 6-7% on a full-year basis for fiscal 2025.
• The company is considering incremental menu pricing to offset input cost inflation, including record-high ground beef prices expected into Q4.

Overall, the rivalry is characterized by a smaller player like Good Times Restaurants Inc. fighting for traffic against larger entities, evidenced by the sharp same-store sales decline at the QSR concept, while the better-burger concept relies on cost discipline to shore up margins.

Good Times Restaurants Inc. (GTIM) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Good Times Restaurants Inc. (GTIM) is substantial because the core products-burgers, chicken sandwiches, and casual dining experiences-are easily replaced by alternatives that satisfy the same fundamental need: convenient, prepared food. You have to look beyond just other burger joints; the entire spectrum of food preparation and consumption is a substitute.

Broad substitute options include home-cooked meals, grocery store prepared foods, and all other restaurant formats. To put this in perspective against the sheer scale of the competition, the United States Quick Service Restaurants (QSR) Market size was valued at USD 447.20 billion in 2025. Furthermore, the Fast-Casual segment, where Bad Daddy's Burger Bar competes, is hitting $191B in 2025. GTIM's trailing twelve months revenue ending April 1, 2025, was $144.35 million, which is a fraction of these massive, accessible markets. This means that any shift in consumer preference toward cooking at home or choosing a different category, like pizza or Mexican food (which together with burgers make up the bulk of the QSR market), directly pulls dollars away from GTIM.

The dual-brand model (quick-service and full-service) diversifies against a single substitute threat. This structure is key because it allows Good Times Restaurants Inc. to compete across different price points and service expectations. For instance, in Q3 of fiscal year 2025, the Good Times brand generated sales of approximately $9.3 million (based on Q2 data scaled to Q3 revenue context, though Q3 specific split isn't provided, Q2 showed $9.3M for Good Times and $24.8M for Bad Daddy's), positioning it against pure QSRs, while Bad Daddy's Burger Bar, operating as a full-service/fast-casual concept, targets a different consumer looking for a slightly higher-quality, sit-down experience.

Convenience-focused substitutes like food delivery apps increase the ease of choosing non-GTIM options. This is a major factor because the modern consumer prioritizes speed and ease of access. A 2025 report indicated that off-premise dining now accounts for 66% of all restaurant sales. When ordering is this easy, the friction to select a competitor's offering-whether it's a different burger chain or a completely different cuisine delivered via the same app-is minimal. This convenience factor often outweighs brand loyalty for many quick transactions.

Customers can easily substitute a gourmet burger (Bad Daddy's) with a cheaper quick-service option (Good Times or a competitor). The burger segment itself is highly contested. The fast food burger market makes up an estimated 40.1% of QSR revenue in 2025. If a Bad Daddy's customer feels price pressure, they can easily trade down to the Good Times brand or a competitor's standard burger offering. Conversely, if a Good Times customer wants a slightly elevated experience without a full sit-down commitment, they might opt for a fast-casual competitor instead of Bad Daddy's. Here's the quick math: if a Bad Daddy's entrée is priced at, say, $16, a customer might substitute it for a $10 competitor's offering or a $7 Good Times offering, representing a 37.5% or 56% price difference, respectively.

We can map the competitive landscape based on the company's reported segments versus the overall market size as of late 2025:

The consumer behavior data further solidifies this pressure, showing that 65% of consumers under 45 are eating out less, but when they do, they prefer value-oriented, high-speed options. This suggests that even when they decide to spend money on dining out, they are actively seeking the most efficient value proposition, which pits GTIM's two brands directly against each other and against every other value-focused substitute available.

• Home-cooked meals are a constant, zero-transaction-fee substitute.
• Grocery store prepared foods compete on convenience and perceived health benefits.
• Fast-casual segment size is $191B in 2025.
• Off-premise dining accounts for 66% of all restaurant sales.
• Bad Daddy's faces substitution from cheaper QSR burgers.

Finance: review the impact of the 3.7% same-store sales decline at Bad Daddy's in Q2 2025 versus the 3.6% decline at Good Times on the overall substitution risk profile by next quarter.

Good Times Restaurants Inc. (GTIM) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of new entrants

You're looking at the barriers to entry for a new competitor trying to muscle into Good Times Restaurants Inc.'s space. Honestly, the restaurant industry has some structural defenses, but they aren't impenetrable, especially for deep-pocketed players.

High Capital Expenditure as a Barrier

Starting a new chain, or even just one new location, demands serious upfront cash. This is a classic barrier. Good Times Restaurants Inc. itself is investing in its existing footprint; for instance, they incurred $300,000 in capital expenditures (CapEx) during the second fiscal quarter of 2025 specifically for Good Times remodels and signage projects, plus a patio remodel at a Bad Daddy's location. They budget approximately 1% of sales for ongoing maintenance CapEx. New entrants face this same initial outlay for site acquisition, build-out, and equipment. Furthermore, Good Times Restaurants Inc. still has units requiring more significant work, expecting those remodels to occur in fiscal 2026. That ongoing need for capital to refresh assets shows that the investment doesn't stop once you open the doors.

Here's a quick look at the cost structure that new entrants must immediately absorb:

Local Regulatory Hurdles and Cost Structure

Operating in Good Times Restaurants Inc.'s primary market, Colorado, means navigating rapidly increasing local labor costs, which immediately raises the bar for any new entrant. You're hiring before product-market fit, and the minimum wage is already high. For example, Denver's minimum wage was $18.81 at the start of 2025, projected to hit $19.29 next year. Restaurant owners in Denver noted that wage increases amounted to about $3 per person per hour for them, forcing them to pass costs to guests or absorb them, with one co-owner citing an annual cost impact of about $37,000 last year. New entrants must price their menu items to cover these high fixed labor costs from day one, which is tough when trying to gain initial traction against established players.

The regulatory environment creates specific cost pressures:

• Denver's regular minimum wage reached $18.81 in early 2025.
• Denver's tipped minimum wage was $15.79 in early 2025.
• The statewide minimum wage is set to reach $15.16 in 2026.
• Wage hikes can lead to price increases that scare customers.

Vulnerability Due to Small Market Capitalization

Good Times Restaurants Inc.'s relatively small scale makes it a potential target or, conversely, a company that can be easily overshadowed by a well-capitalized competitor. The market capitalization cited for Good Times Restaurants Inc. around Q2 2025 was around $20.75 million. To be fair, other readings put it closer to $20.32 million or even $14.14 million depending on the exact date in 2025. Still, this valuation is tiny compared to national chains. A larger, well-funded entrant can sustain initial losses, aggressively market, and outspend Good Times Restaurants Inc. on real estate or technology upgrades. This small market cap signals investor skepticism about sustained growth, which can limit Good Times Restaurants Inc.'s own ability to raise expansion capital cheaply.

Labor Shortages as an Operational Barrier

The persistent, high-volume labor churn in the restaurant sector acts as a massive operational deterrent for any new chain attempting to scale. New entrants will immediately face the same hiring and retention struggles as incumbents. In 2025, the average restaurant employee turnover rate is reported to exceed 75% annually. For fast-food segments, this rate can hit a staggering 150%. Even in full-service operations like those run by Good Times Restaurants Inc., Front-of-House staff turnover is around 41% and Back-of-House staff turnover is around 43%. This constant cycle means new entrants must dedicate significant, immediate resources to training and replacement, diverting focus from service quality and brand building. If onboarding takes 14+ days, churn risk rises.

Consider the specific turnover statistics for 2025:

• Average industry annual employee turnover: Over 75%.
• Fast-food sector turnover: Can exceed 130% to 150%.
• Annual turnover for BOH staff: Approximately 43%.
• Annual turnover for FOH staff: Approximately 41%.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.