Breaking Down Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors

You're looking at Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR) and seeing a contradiction: a critical aerospace supplier with a massive backlog, but a balance sheet that's defintely bleeding cash. Honestly, this stock is a high-stakes bet right now, and the numbers for the 2025 fiscal year show exactly why Wall Street has a Hold consensus on it. The company is on track for a trailing twelve-month (TTM) revenue of nearly $6.27 Billion, and analysts project a solid $770 million in EBITDA, which shows operational strength. But here's the quick math: the consensus net income forecast for 2025 is a painful loss of about -$721.7 million, driven by program losses on the Boeing 737 and Airbus A350. The whole story, though, is the impending acquisition by Boeing, which, despite regulatory delays pushing the expected close to Q4 2025, essentially sets the floor for the stock at an implied value around $37.25. You need to decide if the value of that massive $52 billion backlog is worth the near-term volatility.

Revenue Analysis

You need to know where the money is coming from to truly understand Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR)'s risk profile. The direct takeaway is this: Spirit AeroSystems is fundamentally a production house for two major customers, Boeing and Airbus, and its near-term revenue growth, while positive, is still battling significant cost headwinds.

For the third quarter of 2025 (Q3 2025), Spirit AeroSystems reported revenues of $1.6 billion, an 8% increase year-over-year (YoY) from the $1.47 billion reported in Q3 2024. This growth is a solid sign of the aerospace market's recovery and the company's ability to ramp up production, but it's defintely not a clean win, as the company is still grappling with forward losses on key programs.

Primary Revenue Streams and Segment Contribution

Spirit AeroSystems' business model is concentrated, with three main segments driving the top line. The Commercial segment is the undisputed core, responsible for the vast majority of sales. The regional concentration is also high, with the United States accounting for nearly three-quarters of the total revenue.

Here's the quick math on the Q3 2025 revenue breakdown, showing just how dominant the Commercial segment is:

Near-Term Revenue Trends and Risks

The biggest driver for the Q3 2025 revenue jump was the significant increase in Boeing 737 deliveries, with 90 shipsets delivered in the quarter compared to 64 in the same period of 2024. This rebound comes after the 2024 delivery delays caused by a joint product verification process with Boeing. So, the revenue increase is less about new market share and more about recovering from past production bottlenecks.

Still, the production ramp-up across all major platforms-Boeing, Airbus, and Defense & Space-is a clear opportunity. The company's total backlog sits at a massive $52 billion as of the end of Q3 2025, which underscores robust long-term demand. What this estimate hides, however, is the short-term cost pressure: the company recorded $585 million in net forward losses in Q3 2025, largely due to escalating supply chain and production costs on the Boeing 737, 787, Airbus A220, and A350 programs.

The pending acquisition by Boeing, expected to close in the fourth quarter of 2025, is a crucial structural change. This deal is conditional on divesting the Airbus-related businesses, which means the future revenue profile will be even more concentrated on Boeing programs, effectively eliminating the Airbus-related portion of the Commercial segment's revenue stream. This is a massive shift in the revenue mix you need to model. For a deeper dive into the valuation implications of this concentration, check out Breaking Down Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Profitability Metrics

The direct takeaway is clear: Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR) is navigating a period of severe financial strain in 2025, with profitability metrics deep in negative territory due to program cost overruns and production challenges. You are looking at a company with negative margins across the board, which is defintely a high-risk scenario.

For the three months ended October 2, 2025 (Q3 2025), the core profitability ratios show the extent of the challenge. Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc.'s cost of sales is significantly outpacing its revenue, resulting in a negative gross profit. This isn't just a low-margin business; it's a business where the cost to produce the goods is higher than the price they are sold for-before even factoring in overhead.

Here's the quick math on the most recent quarter's performance, compared to the broader industry:

The Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) Operating Margin, a better view of the full year's performance, stood at approximately -33.90% as of November 2025. This compares poorly to peers like General Dynamics at 9.51% and even a struggling Boeing at -12.10%. A negative gross margin of -39.08% means the company is losing nearly 40 cents on every dollar of sales just to cover the direct costs of production-a trend that is simply unsustainable without significant capital injections or a major operational reset.

The trend in profitability over time shows a deepening crisis. In 2024, the company already reported a Net Loss of $2.14 billion on $6.32 billion in revenue. The widening losses in 2025 are driven by massive program charges, specifically 'net forward losses' which totaled $585 million in Q3 2025 alone. These losses are a direct result of increased production and supply chain cost growth on key programs like the Boeing 737, 787, and Airbus A220/A350. This isn't a demand problem; it's a cost execution problem.

When you look at operational efficiency, Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. is actively working on it, focusing on lean manufacturing and cost reduction. Still, the cost management efforts are currently being overwhelmed by these program-related losses. One small win is that excess capacity costs-the cost of having factory space and equipment sitting idle-did decrease to $55 million in Q3 2025, down from $70 million a year earlier. This suggests some progress in utilizing existing assets, but it's a drop in the bucket compared to the $585 million in forward losses. The company's future hinges on its ability to stabilize production costs and execute its operational excellence strategy, which is detailed further in its strategic documents, such as its Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR).

• Gross margin trend is significantly negative.
• Operating margin is far below industry benchmarks.
• Net losses are expanding year-over-year.

Debt vs. Equity Structure

You need to know how Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR) funds its operations, and the short answer is: heavily through debt, which has led to a significant structural imbalance. The company's capital structure is currently defined by a high leverage profile and, critically, negative shareholder equity.

As of the third quarter of 2025, Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. carried approximately $4.4 billion in total debt. This is a substantial figure, especially when you look at the breakdown. Here's the quick math on their debt composition from the most recent reporting period, which shows a significant reliance on long-term funding:

• Short-Term Debt: $690.9 million
• Long-Term Debt (including lease liabilities): $3.65 billion

The company has been actively managing this debt load, particularly in the run-up to the anticipated acquisition by The Boeing Company. For instance, in June 2025, they amended their $350 million Delayed-Draw Bridge Credit Agreement, extending its maturity to September 30, 2025, a clear sign of financial maneuvering to align with the merger timeline.

When we look at the company's Debt-to-Equity (D/E) ratio, the picture is stark. The D/E ratio measures a company's financial leverage by comparing its total liabilities to its shareholder equity. For Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc., the ratio as of September 30, 2025, was approximately -0.9738.

A negative D/E ratio is not a typo; it means the company has Exploring Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR) Investor Profile: Who's Buying and Why? negative shareholder equity, a condition often caused by accumulated losses. For context, the average D/E ratio for the broader Aerospace & Defense industry is a much healthier 0.38 as of November 2025. Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. is operating with a capital structure that is fundamentally different from its peers, relying almost entirely on creditor financing rather than owner capital.

This reliance on debt is why the pending acquisition by The Boeing Company is so critical for the company's financial future. The deal is expected to close in late 2025, and the pro forma debt related to the acquisition is anticipated to be around $3.8 billion. The market views this as a positive credit event, which is why S&P Global Ratings placed the company's 'B' issuer credit rating on CreditWatch with positive implications, expecting a potential multiple-notch upgrade upon closing. That's a huge shift in risk profile.

Here is a snapshot of the core leverage metrics and their industry comparison:

The company is also balancing its financing by shedding non-core assets. The transfer of certain Airbus program work is expected to involve a cash compensation payment to Airbus of $466.9 million at closing. This move reduces long-term operational risk but requires a significant near-term cash outlay, which underscores the complexity of their balance sheet management right now. They are exchanging debt risk for a cleaner, albeit smaller, core business.

Liquidity and Solvency

You need a clear picture of whether Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR) can meet its short-term obligations, and honestly, the numbers show severe stress. The company's liquidity ratios are dangerously low, and while recent cash flow improved slightly due to delivery timing, the fundamental operating cash flow remains deeply negative, raising substantial doubt about its ability to continue as a going concern (a technical term for remaining in business) without the pending acquisitions. The core takeaway is that the company is currently relying on strategic, non-operational events-the Boeing and Airbus deals-to solve a deep-seated liquidity problem.

Assessing Spirit AeroSystems' Liquidity Positions

The most recent liquidity ratios paint a clear, worrying picture. The current ratio and quick ratio (acid-test ratio) show that Spirit AeroSystems does not have enough liquid assets to cover its current liabilities. A healthy current ratio is typically 1.0 or higher; a quick ratio above 0.5 is preferred. Spirit AeroSystems is far below these benchmarks.

Here's the quick math on the most recent available data:

• Current Ratio (MRQ/TTM): 0.68
• Quick Ratio (MRQ/TTM): 0.20

A quick ratio of 0.20 means that for every dollar of short-term debt, the company only has 20 cents in cash or near-cash assets to pay it immediately. That's a defintely tight spot. This low ratio is partly due to high inventory levels, which are hard to turn into cash quickly, especially with production delays related to customer protocols.

Analysis of Working Capital Trends

Working capital-current assets minus current liabilities-has been a major challenge, although there was a recent positive shift. In Q3 2025, cash used in operations improved compared to the prior year, largely because of better working capital timing driven by higher Boeing 737 deliveries. This suggests that the company is managing its immediate cash cycle better, but it's a fragile improvement tied directly to customer delivery schedules, not a sustained increase in profitability.

For context, the reported change in working capital as of July 2025 was a positive $668.3 million, a necessary injection to manage the day-to-day operations. What this estimate hides is the underlying issue of high inventory, which is a current asset but a poor source of immediate cash until the components are completed and delivered.

Cash Flow Statements Overview

The cash flow statement confirms the operational strain. For the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) leading up to Q3 2025, the company's core operations have been a significant cash drain. This is the most crucial metric for a manufacturing business because it shows if the core activity is self-funding.

The trends are clear:

In Q3 2025 alone, the company used $187 million in cash from operations, with a free cash flow usage of $230 million. This consistent negative operating cash flow is what forces the company to rely on outside funding, like customer advances or the pending acquisition, to keep the lights on.

Potential Liquidity Concerns and Strengths

The main concern is the company's own acknowledgment of 'substantial doubt' about its ability to continue as a going concern, a rare and serious disclosure. The total debt stands at approximately $4.4 billion, with short-term obligations of about $426.2 million. To address this, the company's plan relies heavily on asset divestitures and the integration with Boeing.

The biggest strength isn't in the balance sheet, but in the order book: the total backlog at the end of Q3 2025 was approximately $52 billion. This massive backlog, coupled with the pending acquisition by Boeing and the asset sale to Airbus, provides the strategic lifeline. These transactions are essentially a liquidity solution, designed to stabilize the business and ensure the supply chain remains intact for the aerospace giants. For a deeper dive into the strategic implications of these deals, check out Breaking Down Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Valuation Analysis

You're looking at Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR) and wondering if the market has it right, and honestly, the traditional valuation metrics are a mess right now. The short answer is the stock is currently trading near its analyst consensus target, suggesting it is fairly valued in the near-term, but that hides a complex financial picture.

As of November 2025, the stock price is hovering around the $35.72 mark. This sits almost exactly in line with the Wall Street consensus price target of approximately $38.63, which suggests a modest upside of about 7.01% over the next year. The analyst consensus is a firm 'Hold,' not a 'Buy,' reflecting the significant operational risks still baked into the aerospace supply chain. You should defintely check out the Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR) to understand their long-term focus.

The Problem with Traditional Ratios

When we look at the core valuation ratios, the picture is murky because Spirit AeroSystems Holdings is in a turnaround phase, still dealing with significant losses. Here's the quick math on why the numbers look so strange:

• Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio: The P/E ratio is currently 'Not Applicable' (n/a). This isn't a glitch; it's because the company's trailing twelve-month (TTM) earnings per share (EPS) as of September 2025 was a loss of approximately $-22.110. You can't divide a price by a negative number to get a meaningful P/E.
• Price-to-Book (P/B) Ratio: This is also generally 'n/a' for the same reason-the company's book value is often negative or heavily impacted by large program accounting adjustments, making the ratio unreliable for comparison.
• Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA): The TTM EV/EBITDA is negative, sitting around -4.85x. This is due to a negative TTM EBITDA of roughly $-1.932 billion. A negative multiple signals significant operational losses, but for a cyclical, capital-intensive business like this, it often means the company is at a trough, not that the stock is worthless.

What really matters is the forward-looking view. Analysts are forecasting a 2025 full-year EPS loss of $-6.14, but the forward P/E ratio is cited as 41.03, which is based on an expected return to profitability, likely in 2026. That's a high multiple, but it reflects the market's bet on a massive earnings rebound once production stabilizes and costs are contained.

Stock Performance and Dividends

The stock has shown resilience over the last year, despite the operational headwinds. Over the last 12 months, the stock price has actually climbed by 20.33%, with a 52-week range spanning from a low of $27.00 to a high of $42.33. This volatility (a beta of 1.7) is typical for a stock so closely tied to a few major airframe programs, especially with the ongoing production rate adjustments.

If you're looking for income, Spirit AeroSystems Holdings is not it. The company has suspended its dividend, so the TTM dividend yield is 0.00%. All available cash is being reinvested to shore up operations, manage the supply chain, and fund the working capital needed for higher production rates-a necessary trade-off for future growth.

The takeaway is simple: Spirit AeroSystems Holdings is a 'show-me' stock right now. It is neither clearly overvalued nor undervalued; it's priced on the expectation that its 2025 revenue forecast of $7.68 billion and the subsequent operational improvements will materialize. You are betting on the successful execution of their production ramp-up, not on current earnings.

Risk Factors

You need to look past the strong backlog number-which is around $52 billion as of Q3 2025-and focus on the deep financial and operational cracks at Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR). The biggest risk is simple: Can the company survive long enough for its strategic moves to pay off? Honestly, the company itself has stated there is 'substantial doubt' about its ability to continue as a going concern without securing additional funding.

This isn't just market noise; it's a cold, hard financial reality. In the third quarter of 2025 alone, Spirit AeroSystems reported a massive operating loss of $(646.5) million and a net loss of $(724.3) million. The cash position is tight, with the company ending Q3 2025 with a cash balance of just $299 million, down from $537 million at the end of 2024.

Operational and Program-Specific Financial Strain

The core of the problem is that Spirit AeroSystems is losing money on its major programs, and the costs are rising faster than they can manage. We see this clearly in the forward losses, which is accounting jargon for the projected losses on a contract over its life. Here's the quick math: Q3 2025 saw $585 million in net forward losses. That's a huge number for one quarter.

These losses hit four key programs hard, mostly due to supply chain and production cost growth:

• Boeing 737 and Boeing 787 programs.
• Airbus A220 and Airbus A350 programs.

External Dependence and Regulatory Headwinds

The company's fate is defintely tied to its two largest customers, and that creates a single point of failure. Spirit AeroSystems generates nearly half of its revenue from the Boeing 737 program. This over-reliance means any production slowdown or quality issue at Boeing immediately hits Spirit AeroSystems' cash flow, as seen with the lower-than-planned 737 production rates.

The other major external risk is the regulatory environment and ongoing quality scrutiny. Following the 737 MAX incidents, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is conducting deep audits of both Boeing and Spirit AeroSystems' production lines. This heightened oversight means stricter quality control, which, while necessary for safety, can slow down production and increase costs, as Boeing has implemented new assembly protocols that led to high inventory levels for Spirit AeroSystems in Q1 2025.

Mitigation and Strategic Uncertainty

The most significant mitigation strategy is the pending strategic shift: the reacquisition of Spirit AeroSystems by Boeing and the divestiture of the Airbus-related business segments. This is a massive, complex undertaking and the European Commission only approved the Boeing deal in October 2025, conditional on the Airbus divestiture. The risk here is execution.

To stabilize operations in the near term, Spirit AeroSystems is working closely with Boeing, including setting up a new joint inspection checkpoint at the Wichita factory to reduce the number of flawed 737 fuselages arriving at Boeing's final assembly plant. They are also aligning production, limiting overtime, and selectively hiring to match the current customer rate profile. Still, the company's negative equity stood at $4.51 billion as of Q3 2025, showing the deep hole they are trying to climb out of.

For a more detailed look into the company's valuation and strategic outlook, check out Breaking Down Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Growth Opportunities

You're looking at Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR) and seeing a business navigating significant operational turbulence, but the future growth story is defintely there. The direct takeaway is that while 2025 earnings remain negative, the company is positioned for a substantial revenue ramp-up driven by commercial aircraft production increases and a major strategic shift toward re-integration with its largest customer.

The core of Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc.'s near-term growth is simply volume. The aerospace market is recovering, and the company is benefiting from higher production activity, particularly on the Boeing 737 and 787 programs. Here's the quick math: analysts project the company's annual revenue growth rate for 2025 to be around 16.26%, which is forecast to beat the US Aerospace & Defense industry's average growth rate of 7.8%. That's a strong tailwind.

For the 2025 fiscal year, Wall Street consensus projects Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc.'s revenue to land between approximately $7.68 billion and $8.92 billion. While the company is still working through profitability challenges-with a forecast to improve from a loss of ($11.88) per share to a loss of approximately ($0.25) to ($6.14) per share next year-the underlying operational health is showing signs of recovery. Analysts project a fiscal year 2025 EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) of $770 million, signaling improved cash flow generation from core operations.

Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. is not just waiting for the market; they are making moves that fundamentally change their structure. The biggest initiative is the pending merger agreement with The Boeing Company, which was projected to complete in the third quarter of 2025. This re-integration is a massive strategic pivot that should provide greater financial stability and operational efficiencies by aligning production more closely with their primary customer, who accounts for roughly 60% of the company's revenue. Plus, there's the stock and asset purchase agreement with Airbus SE for certain business segments, which is expected to positively impact future revenues.

The company also has clear competitive advantages that cement its position, even during transitional periods:

• Massive Backlog: The backlog was approximately $52 billion at the end of the third quarter of 2025, which gives you clear visibility into future work.
• Market Dominance: Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. is the largest independent supplier of aerostructures for commercial aircraft.
• Defense Diversification: A long-term strategic goal is to have the Defense & Space segment comprise 40% of total consolidated revenue, up from historical levels.
• Strategic Partnerships: Collaborations like the one with Sierra Space for the development of Shooting Star Transport Vehicles boost the Defense & Space segment.

What this estimate hides is the inherent execution risk in any major acquisition and the ongoing challenge of managing complex supply chain costs, which contributed to net forward losses of $585 million in the third quarter of 2025. Still, the substantial backlog and the strategic moves with both Boeing and Airbus position the company for a cleaner, more focused future. To see a detailed breakdown of who is betting on this turnaround, you should read Exploring Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc. (SPR) Investor Profile: Who's Buying and Why?

The table below summarizes the key financial projections underpinning the 2025 growth story:

The next concrete step for you is to monitor the progress of the Boeing merger and the Airbus asset transfer, as the successful completion of these transactions will be the primary catalyst for long-term financial stability and growth.