Análisis FODA de Eni S.p.A. (E) [Actualizado en enero de 2025]

En el panorama dinámico de la energía global, Eni S.P.A. se encuentra en una encrucijada crítica, equilibrando su legado tradicional de combustibles fósiles con una transformación ambiciosa hacia soluciones sostenibles. Este análisis FODA completo revela el posicionamiento estratégico de uno de los gigantes energéticos de Italia, explorando cómo la compañía navega por los complejos desafíos del mercado, las interrupciones tecnológicas y el cambio global urgente hacia las tecnologías bajas en carbono. Desde su sólida huella internacional hasta sus inversiones estratégicas en energía renovable, el viaje de Eni refleja la narrativa más amplia de una industria en una transición profunda, donde la adaptabilidad, la innovación y la previsión estratégica son clave para el éxito a largo plazo.

Eni S.P.A. (E) - Análisis DAFO: Fortalezas

Compañía de energía integrada verticalmente

ENI opera en toda la cadena de valor energético con operaciones integrales en:

• Exploración
• Producción
• Refinación
• Sectores de energía renovable

Presencia internacional

Operaciones en más de 70 países, con una huella significativa en:

• África (Argelia, Egipto, Libia, Congo)
• Medio Oriente (EAU, Iraq)
• Europa (Italia, Reino Unido, Noruega)
• Américas (Estados Unidos, México, Brasil)

Capacidades tecnológicas

Inversiones tecnológicas avanzadas:

• Gastos de I + D de 1.100 millones de euros en 2022
• Presupuesto de transformación digital: € 350 millones
• IA y implementaciones de aprendizaje automático en operaciones aguas arriba

Diversificación de cartera de energía

Desempeño financiero

Métricas financieras clave para 2022:

• Ingresos totales: € 117.2 mil millones
• Ingresos netos: € 10.4 mil millones
• Flujo de efectivo operativo: € 15.6 mil millones
• EBITD: € 22.8 mil millones

Eni S.P.A. (E) - Análisis FODA: debilidades

Alta exposición a los volátiles mercados globales de petróleo y gas y fluctuaciones de precios

A partir del cuarto trimestre de 2023, los ingresos de ENI de las ventas de hidrocarburos fueron de € 24.8 mil millones, con una vulnerabilidad significativa a las fluctuaciones de los precios del mercado. La volatilidad del precio del petróleo crudo de Brent varió entre $ 70 y $ 95 por barril durante 2023, impactando directamente los ingresos de la compañía.

Operaciones significativas ambientales e intensivas en carbono

Las emisiones de carbono de ENI en 2022 fueron aproximadamente 46.5 millones de toneladas de CO2 equivalente, lo que representa una huella ambiental sustancial.

• Alcance 1 & 2 emisiones: 35.5 millones de toneladas CO2
• Alcance 3 emisiones: 11 millones de toneladas CO2

Estructura organizacional compleja

ENI opera en 69 países con una estructura organizativa compleja que involucra múltiples subsidiarias y unidades de negocios.

Niveles sustanciales de deuda y gastos de capital

A diciembre de 2023, la deuda financiera neta total de ENI se situó en 16,300 millones de euros, con gastos de capital anuales de aproximadamente € 7,5 mil millones.

• Deuda financiera neta: € 16.3 mil millones
• Gasto de capital anual: € 7.5 mil millones
• Relación de deuda / capital: 0.45

Riesgos geopolíticos en regiones operativas

ENI tiene operaciones significativas en regiones de alto riesgo, con aproximadamente el 30% de la producción de hidrocarburos en países africanos políticamente inestables.

ENI S.P.A. (E) - Análisis FODA: oportunidades

Acelerar la transición hacia tecnologías de energía renovable y bajas en carbono

La inversión de energía renovable de ENI proyectada para alcanzar € 4.5 mil millones para 2025. La capacidad actual de energía renovable es de 1.2 GW, con planes de expandirse a 5 GW para 2025 y 15 GW para 2030.

Expandir inversiones en hidrógeno, energía solar y energía eólica

Eni se comprometió a una inversión de € 2,4 mil millones en proyectos de hidrógeno verde. Objetivos de capacidad de producción de hidrógeno actual:

• Producción de hidrógeno verde: 2 millones de toneladas para 2030
• Expansión de energía solar: 1 GW Capacidad adicional para 2025
• Desarrollo de energía eólica: 2 GW nuevas instalaciones planificadas

Potencial para asociaciones estratégicas en los mercados emergentes de energía verde

Transformación digital e implementación de tecnologías avanzadas en gestión de energía

ENI asignó 600 millones de euros para iniciativas de transformación digital en 2024. Las inversiones tecnológicas clave incluyen:

• Sistemas de mantenimiento predictivo impulsados ​​por IA
• Blockchain para la optimización de la cadena de suministro
• Plataformas de análisis de datos avanzados

Mercado creciente para soluciones de energía sostenible y tecnologías de captura de carbono

Inversión de captura y almacenamiento de carbono (CCS) proyectada en € 1.5 mil millones para 2030. Objetivos actuales de reducción de carbono:

Eni S.P.A. (E) - Análisis FODA: amenazas

Aumento de la presión regulatoria global sobre las emisiones de carbono y la mitigación del cambio climático

El precio de carbono del Sistema de Comercio de Emisiones de la Unión Europea (EU ETS) alcanzó € 80.87 por tonelada en enero de 2024. Los mecanismos mundiales de precios de carbono cubren aproximadamente el 22% de las emisiones mundiales de gases de efecto invernadero. La Agencia Internacional de Energía proyecta que compañías como ENI deben reducir la intensidad del carbono en un 55% para 2030 para alinearse con los objetivos del acuerdo de París.

Intensa competencia de los sectores de energía tradicional y renovable

Las inversiones de energía renovable alcanzaron los $ 495 mil millones a nivel mundial en 2023. Los principales competidores incluyen:

• Energías totales: inversión de energía renovable de $ 17.5 mil millones en 2023
• Shell: $ 12.3 mil millones de inversiones de energía renovable en 2023
• BP: inversión de energía renovable de $ 10.8 mil millones en 2023

Posible interrupción de los avances tecnológicos de energía limpia

La eficiencia de la tecnología solar fotovoltaica aumentó a 26.7% en 2023. Los costos de almacenamiento de la batería disminuyeron en un 89% desde 2010, alcanzando $ 132/kWh en 2023.

Tensiones geopolíticas que afectan los mercados energéticos

El índice de volatilidad del mercado de energía global alcanzó el 24.6 en enero de 2024. Riesgo de conflicto de Medio Oriente La prima aumentó los precios de la energía en un 12,3% en 2023.

Cambiando las preferencias de los consumidores y los inversores

Los fondos de inversión centrados en ESG crecieron a $ 40.5 billones en 2023, lo que representa el 36% de los activos globales bajo administración. La energía renovable atrajo al 73% de las nuevas inversiones globales de generación de energía en 2023.

Eni S.p.A. (E) - SWOT Analysis: Opportunities

Capitalize on the global shift to natural gas as a transition fuel, securing long-term supply contracts

The global energy transition, while pushing renewables, still relies heavily on natural gas as a critical bridge fuel, and Eni is positioned to capitalize on this for decades. You see this clearly in their recent moves to lock in long-term supply. For example, in July 2025, Eni signed a 20-year liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales and purchase agreement with Venture Global. This deal secures 2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG from the CP2 LNG facility in Louisiana, United States, starting by the end of the decade.

This single contract is a major step toward Eni's strategic goal of growing its total contracted LNG portfolio to approximately 20 MTPA by 2030, which diversifies supply for Europe and enhances Eni's global trading flexibility. That's a clear, long-term revenue stream. The ability to use existing infrastructure, like the Damietta LNG plant in Egypt, to process new discoveries further cements this advantage.

Accelerate Plenitude's growth through strategic M&A in mature European renewables markets

Plenitude, Eni's integrated retail and renewables unit, is a high-growth engine, and its strategy is to accelerate scale through targeted mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in established European markets. They are not just building from scratch; they are buying market share and customer bases. Plenitude currently operates over 4 GW of installed renewable capacity and has a clear target to reach 10 GW by 2028.

A concrete example of this strategy is the acquisition of Acea Energia in June 2025, a Rome-based provider of electricity, gas, and e-mobility services. This move expands Plenitude's customer base-already over 10 million customers across 15 countries-and strengthens its integrated model, which includes a network of over 21,500 electric vehicle (EV) charging points.

Develop Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects, leveraging existing infrastructure and expertise

Eni is defintely a first-mover in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), which is essential for decarbonizing 'hard-to-abate' industrial sectors like cement and steel. They are leveraging their deep expertise in subsurface geology and their existing depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs for storage. In 2025, Eni plans to launch a new, dedicated Carbon Capture and Storage satellite company, consolidating all their projects under a single, fundable entity.

The company has two flagship projects underway:

• Liverpool Bay CCS Project (UK): Reached financial close with the UK Government in April 2025. Phase 1 capacity is 4.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year, with potential to scale to 10 million tonnes of CO2 per year in the 2030s.
• Ravenna CCS Project (Italy): Phase 1 began in September 2024, capturing 25,000 tonnes of CO2 per year from Eni's own gas plant emissions. Phase 2 aims to turn Ravenna into a major CCS hub for Southern Europe.

Here's the quick math: the initial phase of the Liverpool Bay project alone represents a significant new revenue stream from industrial emitters seeking a decarbonization solution.

Monetize midstream assets or a minority stake in Plenitude to fund further growth, potentially raising €2 billion

Eni's 'satellite model'-spinning off and partially selling stakes in high-growth, low-carbon businesses-is a brilliant way to fund the energy transition without straining the core balance sheet. This strategy has already delivered substantial capital in 2025. In June 2025, Eni sold a 20% stake in Plenitude to Ares Management Alternative Credit funds for approximately €2 billion. This transaction was based on an equity valuation of €10 billion for Plenitude.

This capital infusion of €2 billion provides immediate, non-debt funding for Plenitude's ambitious growth targets, including the aforementioned M&A activity and the expansion of its renewable capacity to 10 GW by 2028. It also validates the market value of Eni's transition-focused assets, a key indicator for investors.

New significant gas discoveries in emerging areas like the Eastern Mediterranean or Africa

Exploration success remains a core opportunity, providing high-margin, low-carbon intensity resources. Eni continues to make significant discoveries that secure long-term supply and solidify its strategic position in key regions. In 2025, Eni signed a major agreement with Egypt and Cyprus for the exploitation of the Cronos gas discovery in Block 6 offshore Cyprus. This will enable Cypriot gas to be exported to Europe via existing Eni infrastructure in Egypt.

In Africa, a major new discovery was made in Côte d'Ivoire with the Calao discovery in the CI-205 block, where Eni holds a 90% interest. This find is expected to strengthen Eni's exploration portfolio and contribute to future growth. The table below summarizes the key recent discoveries and their strategic implications.

The ability to quickly leverage existing assets, like the Zohr processing facilities, to bring new discoveries online is a huge competitive edge, reducing time-to-market.

Eni S.p.A. (E) - SWOT Analysis: Threats

Sustained low oil and gas prices eroding the cash flow needed to fund the energy transition.

The biggest near-term threat remains the volatility of hydrocarbon prices, which directly impacts the cash flow Eni needs to fund its massive energy transition plan, particularly the growth of Plenitude. The company's latest 2025 financial guidance is predicated on a conservative but still uncertain price environment.

For the 2025 fiscal year, Eni's updated scenario assumes a Brent crude price of $65 per barrel and a Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas spot price of €40 per Megawatt-hour (MWh). While Eni has raised its expected adjusted Cash Flow From Operations (CFFO) before working capital to €12 billion for FY 2025, this is a significant reduction from the original plan's assumption of €13 billion, reflecting the pressure from a lower commodity price deck. A further drop below the $65/bbl Brent price would immediately stress the €5 billion net capital expenditure (CapEx) budget for the Group, potentially forcing a slowdown in the Plenitude build-out or increasing reliance on debt.

Regulatory risk from the European Union's increasingly stringent decarbonization policies.

The European Union's (EU) regulatory framework is becoming a financial headwind, not just a strategic one. The EU's 'Clean Industrial Deal,' presented in February 2025, reinforces the commitment to a 90% emissions reduction target by 2040, building on the existing 55% reduction goal by 2030. This translates into higher compliance costs and capital allocation risks for Eni's traditional upstream and refining businesses. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), for instance, is designed to equalize the emission fee on imported and intra-EU products, which could complicate Eni's global supply chain and require significant administrative overhead.

The continuous tightening of these regulations forces Eni to accelerate CapEx toward lower-margin, transition-related assets like Plenitude, while simultaneously increasing the cost of operating its profitable legacy assets. This is a classic squeeze play. To be fair, Eni is ahead of the curve, targeting net-zero for its upstream Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030, but the regulatory pace is relentless.

Geopolitical events causing production disruptions, especially in key regions like Libya or Nigeria.

Eni's strategic focus on gas and its strong position in North Africa and West Africa exposes it to significant geopolitical instability, which can halt production and impact cash flow with little warning. Libya is a critical supplier, contributing approximately 3% of Eni's gas supply. The country has seen recurrent periods of instability, including oil export halts and production curtailment in late 2024 due to political standoffs over oil revenue control.

While Eni plans to invest around €8 billion in Libya by 2029 to boost energy production, this investment itself is at risk from the ongoing political fragmentation. Any prolonged disruption in a major region like Libya or Nigeria would immediately threaten the Group's 2025 production guidance, which was raised to a 1.71-1.72 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) range.

Here's the quick math on the risk:

Rising interest rates increasing the cost of debt for the capital-intensive Plenitude build-out.

The multi-billion-euro expansion of Plenitude is a capital-intensive venture that relies on accessible and affordable financing. While the European Central Bank (ECB) has been cutting rates, the cost of debt remains elevated compared to the pre-2022 environment. For instance, the Euro Area long-term government bond yield was around 3.07% in October 2025. High-yield corporate bonds in Europe, while showing an attractive yield of around 5.1% as of late 2024, are not expected to see further significant spread tightening in 2025.

Eni's net borrowings stood at approximately €10.2 billion as of Q2 2025. The risk is that the market's expectation of continued rate cuts is too optimistic, or that a sudden inflation resurgence forces the ECB to pause or reverse course. This would directly increase the interest expense on new debt issued to fund Plenitude's target of 5.5 GW of installed renewable capacity by the end of 2025. Any unexpected rise in the cost of borrowing would immediately reduce the Net Present Value (NPV) of Plenitude's long-term assets, defintely slowing down the transition's financial returns.

Competition from pure-play renewable developers driving down power purchase agreement (PPA) prices, impacting Plenitude's margins.

Plenitude operates in a highly competitive market where pure-play renewable developers are focused solely on scale and driving down the cost of energy. This intense competition puts downward pressure on Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) prices, which are crucial for securing Plenitude's long-term revenue streams.

While European PPA prices for solar and wind were largely stable in Q1 2025, the market is described as having reached a 'pricing maturity and predictability phase,' which means easy, high margins are gone. The impact is already visible: Plenitude reported a proforma adjusted EBIT of €0.10 billion in Q3 2025, which was lower compared to the same quarter in 2024. This margin compression is a structural threat, not a cyclical one, and is driven by:

• Increased CapEx recalibration by pure-play developers leading to lower pricing offers.
• The shift from national to time-zonal pricing in EU markets, adding complexity to PPA negotiations.
• The need for Plenitude to secure long-term PPAs, such as the 10-year agreement signed with Autostrade per l'Italia in April 2025, at competitive rates to support its >5.5 GW capacity target.

Plenitude's success hinges on its ability to maintain an adjusted EBITDA above the €1.1 billion target for 2025, and PPA price erosion is the direct threat to that goal.