Eni S.P.A. (E): Análise SWOT [Jan-2025 Atualizada]

No cenário dinâmico da energia global, a Eni S.P.A. fica em uma encruzilhada crítica, equilibrando seu tradicional legado de combustível fóssil com uma transformação ambiciosa em relação a soluções sustentáveis. Essa análise SWOT abrangente revela o posicionamento estratégico de um dos gigantes da energia da Itália, explorando como a empresa navega com desafios complexos do mercado, interrupções tecnológicas e a mudança global urgente para tecnologias de baixo carbono. Desde sua pegada internacional robusta até seus investimentos estratégicos em energia renovável, a jornada da ENI reflete a narrativa mais ampla de uma indústria em profunda transição, onde adaptabilidade, inovação e previsão estratégica são essenciais para o sucesso a longo prazo.

Eni S.P.A. (E) - Análise SWOT: Pontos fortes

Empresa de energia verticalmente integrada

A ENI opera em toda a cadeia de valor energético com operações abrangentes em:

• Exploração
• Produção
• Refino
• Setores de energia renovável

Presença internacional

Operações em mais de 70 países, com pegada significativa em:

• África (Argélia, Egito, Líbia, Congo)
• Oriente Médio (Emirados Árabes Unidos, Iraque)
• Europa (Itália, Reino Unido, Noruega)
• Américas (EUA, México, Brasil)

Capacidades tecnológicas

Investimentos tecnológicos avançados:

• € 1,1 bilhão de despesas de P&D em 2022
• Orçamento de transformação digital: € 350 milhões
• IA e implementações de aprendizado de máquina em operações a montante

Diversificação do portfólio de energia

Desempenho financeiro

Principais métricas financeiras para 2022:

• Receita total: € 117,2 bilhões
• Lucro líquido: € 10,4 bilhões
• Fluxo de caixa operacional: € 15,6 bilhões
• EBITD: € 22,8 bilhões

Eni S.P.A. (E) - Análise SWOT: Fraquezas

Alta exposição a mercados globais voláteis de petróleo e gás e flutuações de preços

No quarto trimestre 2023, a receita da ENI com as vendas de hidrocarbonetos foi de € 24,8 bilhões, com vulnerabilidade significativa às flutuações de preços de mercado. A volatilidade do preço do petróleo de Brent variou entre US $ 70 e US $ 95 por barril durante 2023, impactando diretamente as receitas da empresa.

Operações Legadas Ambientais e Intensivas para Carbono significativas

As emissões de carbono da ENI em 2022 foram de aproximadamente 46,5 milhões de toneladas de CO2 equivalente, representando uma pegada ambiental substancial.

• Escopo 1 & 2 emissões: 35,5 milhões de toneladas CO2
• Escopo 3 Emissões: 11 milhões de toneladas CO2

Estrutura organizacional complexa

A ENI opera em 69 países com uma estrutura organizacional complexa envolvendo várias subsidiárias e unidades de negócios.

Níveis de dívida substanciais e despesas de capital

Em dezembro de 2023, a dívida financeira líquida total da ENI ficou em 16,3 bilhões de euros, com despesas anuais de capital de aproximadamente 7,5 bilhões de euros.

• Dívida financeira líquida: € 16,3 bilhões
• Despesas com capital anual: 7,5 bilhões de euros
• Taxa de dívida / patrimônio: 0,45

Riscos geopolíticos em regiões operacionais

A ENI possui operações significativas em regiões de alto risco, com aproximadamente 30% da produção de hidrocarbonetos ocorrendo em países africanos politicamente instáveis.

Eni S.P.A. (E) - Análise SWOT: Oportunidades

Acelerar a transição para energia renovável e tecnologias de baixo carbono

O investimento em energia renovável da ENI, projetado para atingir 4,5 bilhões de euros até 2025. A capacidade de energia renovável atual é de 1,2 GW, com planos de expandir para 5 GW até 2025 e 15 GW até 2030.

Expandindo investimentos em produção de energia hidrogênio, solar e de energia eólica

A ENI se comprometeu com € 2,4 bilhões em investimentos em projetos de hidrogênio verde. Metas atuais de capacidade de produção de hidrogênio:

• Produção de hidrogênio verde: 2 milhões de toneladas até 2030
• Expansão de energia solar: 1 GW Capacidade adicional até 2025
• Desenvolvimento de energia eólica: 2 GW novas instalações planejadas

Potencial para parcerias estratégicas em mercados emergentes de energia verde

Transformação digital e implementação de tecnologias avançadas em gerenciamento de energia

A ENI alocou € 600 milhões para iniciativas de transformação digital em 2024. Os principais investimentos tecnológicos incluem:

• Sistemas de manutenção preditiva orientada pela IA
• Blockchain para otimização da cadeia de suprimentos
• Plataformas avançadas de análise de dados

Mercado em crescimento para soluções de energia sustentável e tecnologias de captura de carbono

Investimento de captura e armazenamento de carbono (CCS) projetado em 1,5 bilhão de euros até 2030. Alvos atuais de redução de carbono:

Eni S.P.A. (E) - Análise SWOT: Ameaças

Aumento da pressão regulatória global sobre as emissões de carbono e a mitigação das mudanças climáticas

O preço do carbono do Sistema de Negociação de Emissões da União Europeia (EU) atingiu € 80,87 por tonelada em janeiro de 2024. Os mecanismos globais de preços de carbono cobrem aproximadamente 22% das emissões mundiais de gases de efeito estufa. A Agência Internacional de Energia projeta que empresas como a ENI devem reduzir a intensidade do carbono em 55% até 2030 para se alinhar com as metas do acordo de Paris.

Concorrência intensa dos setores de energia tradicional e renovável

Os investimentos em energia renovável atingiram US $ 495 bilhões globalmente em 2023. Os principais concorrentes incluem:

• Energias totais: US $ 17,5 bilhões em investimento em energia renovável em 2023
• Shell: US $ 12,3 bilhões em investimento em energia renovável em 2023
• BP: US $ 10,8 bilhões de investimento em energia renovável em 2023

Potencial interrupção de avanços tecnológicos de energia limpa

A eficiência da tecnologia fotovoltaica solar aumentou para 26,7% em 2023. Os custos de armazenamento de bateria caíram 89% desde 2010, atingindo US $ 132/kWh em 2023.

Tensões geopolíticas que afetam os mercados de energia

O Índice de Volatilidade do Mercado de Energia Global atingiu 24,6 em janeiro de 2024. O prêmio de risco de conflito do Oriente Médio aumentou os preços da energia em 12,3% em 2023.

Mudança de preferências de consumidores e investidores

Os fundos de investimento focados em ESG cresceram para US $ 40,5 trilhões em 2023, representando 36% dos ativos globais sob administração. A energia renovável atraiu 73% dos novos investimentos globais de geração de energia em 2023.

Eni S.p.A. (E) - SWOT Analysis: Opportunities

Capitalize on the global shift to natural gas as a transition fuel, securing long-term supply contracts

The global energy transition, while pushing renewables, still relies heavily on natural gas as a critical bridge fuel, and Eni is positioned to capitalize on this for decades. You see this clearly in their recent moves to lock in long-term supply. For example, in July 2025, Eni signed a 20-year liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales and purchase agreement with Venture Global. This deal secures 2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG from the CP2 LNG facility in Louisiana, United States, starting by the end of the decade.

This single contract is a major step toward Eni's strategic goal of growing its total contracted LNG portfolio to approximately 20 MTPA by 2030, which diversifies supply for Europe and enhances Eni's global trading flexibility. That's a clear, long-term revenue stream. The ability to use existing infrastructure, like the Damietta LNG plant in Egypt, to process new discoveries further cements this advantage.

Accelerate Plenitude's growth through strategic M&A in mature European renewables markets

Plenitude, Eni's integrated retail and renewables unit, is a high-growth engine, and its strategy is to accelerate scale through targeted mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in established European markets. They are not just building from scratch; they are buying market share and customer bases. Plenitude currently operates over 4 GW of installed renewable capacity and has a clear target to reach 10 GW by 2028.

A concrete example of this strategy is the acquisition of Acea Energia in June 2025, a Rome-based provider of electricity, gas, and e-mobility services. This move expands Plenitude's customer base-already over 10 million customers across 15 countries-and strengthens its integrated model, which includes a network of over 21,500 electric vehicle (EV) charging points.

Develop Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects, leveraging existing infrastructure and expertise

Eni is defintely a first-mover in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), which is essential for decarbonizing 'hard-to-abate' industrial sectors like cement and steel. They are leveraging their deep expertise in subsurface geology and their existing depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs for storage. In 2025, Eni plans to launch a new, dedicated Carbon Capture and Storage satellite company, consolidating all their projects under a single, fundable entity.

The company has two flagship projects underway:

• Liverpool Bay CCS Project (UK): Reached financial close with the UK Government in April 2025. Phase 1 capacity is 4.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year, with potential to scale to 10 million tonnes of CO2 per year in the 2030s.
• Ravenna CCS Project (Italy): Phase 1 began in September 2024, capturing 25,000 tonnes of CO2 per year from Eni's own gas plant emissions. Phase 2 aims to turn Ravenna into a major CCS hub for Southern Europe.

Here's the quick math: the initial phase of the Liverpool Bay project alone represents a significant new revenue stream from industrial emitters seeking a decarbonization solution.

Monetize midstream assets or a minority stake in Plenitude to fund further growth, potentially raising €2 billion

Eni's 'satellite model'-spinning off and partially selling stakes in high-growth, low-carbon businesses-is a brilliant way to fund the energy transition without straining the core balance sheet. This strategy has already delivered substantial capital in 2025. In June 2025, Eni sold a 20% stake in Plenitude to Ares Management Alternative Credit funds for approximately €2 billion. This transaction was based on an equity valuation of €10 billion for Plenitude.

This capital infusion of €2 billion provides immediate, non-debt funding for Plenitude's ambitious growth targets, including the aforementioned M&A activity and the expansion of its renewable capacity to 10 GW by 2028. It also validates the market value of Eni's transition-focused assets, a key indicator for investors.

New significant gas discoveries in emerging areas like the Eastern Mediterranean or Africa

Exploration success remains a core opportunity, providing high-margin, low-carbon intensity resources. Eni continues to make significant discoveries that secure long-term supply and solidify its strategic position in key regions. In 2025, Eni signed a major agreement with Egypt and Cyprus for the exploitation of the Cronos gas discovery in Block 6 offshore Cyprus. This will enable Cypriot gas to be exported to Europe via existing Eni infrastructure in Egypt.

In Africa, a major new discovery was made in Côte d'Ivoire with the Calao discovery in the CI-205 block, where Eni holds a 90% interest. This find is expected to strengthen Eni's exploration portfolio and contribute to future growth. The table below summarizes the key recent discoveries and their strategic implications.

The ability to quickly leverage existing assets, like the Zohr processing facilities, to bring new discoveries online is a huge competitive edge, reducing time-to-market.

Eni S.p.A. (E) - SWOT Analysis: Threats

Sustained low oil and gas prices eroding the cash flow needed to fund the energy transition.

The biggest near-term threat remains the volatility of hydrocarbon prices, which directly impacts the cash flow Eni needs to fund its massive energy transition plan, particularly the growth of Plenitude. The company's latest 2025 financial guidance is predicated on a conservative but still uncertain price environment.

For the 2025 fiscal year, Eni's updated scenario assumes a Brent crude price of $65 per barrel and a Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas spot price of €40 per Megawatt-hour (MWh). While Eni has raised its expected adjusted Cash Flow From Operations (CFFO) before working capital to €12 billion for FY 2025, this is a significant reduction from the original plan's assumption of €13 billion, reflecting the pressure from a lower commodity price deck. A further drop below the $65/bbl Brent price would immediately stress the €5 billion net capital expenditure (CapEx) budget for the Group, potentially forcing a slowdown in the Plenitude build-out or increasing reliance on debt.

Regulatory risk from the European Union's increasingly stringent decarbonization policies.

The European Union's (EU) regulatory framework is becoming a financial headwind, not just a strategic one. The EU's 'Clean Industrial Deal,' presented in February 2025, reinforces the commitment to a 90% emissions reduction target by 2040, building on the existing 55% reduction goal by 2030. This translates into higher compliance costs and capital allocation risks for Eni's traditional upstream and refining businesses. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), for instance, is designed to equalize the emission fee on imported and intra-EU products, which could complicate Eni's global supply chain and require significant administrative overhead.

The continuous tightening of these regulations forces Eni to accelerate CapEx toward lower-margin, transition-related assets like Plenitude, while simultaneously increasing the cost of operating its profitable legacy assets. This is a classic squeeze play. To be fair, Eni is ahead of the curve, targeting net-zero for its upstream Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030, but the regulatory pace is relentless.

Geopolitical events causing production disruptions, especially in key regions like Libya or Nigeria.

Eni's strategic focus on gas and its strong position in North Africa and West Africa exposes it to significant geopolitical instability, which can halt production and impact cash flow with little warning. Libya is a critical supplier, contributing approximately 3% of Eni's gas supply. The country has seen recurrent periods of instability, including oil export halts and production curtailment in late 2024 due to political standoffs over oil revenue control.

While Eni plans to invest around €8 billion in Libya by 2029 to boost energy production, this investment itself is at risk from the ongoing political fragmentation. Any prolonged disruption in a major region like Libya or Nigeria would immediately threaten the Group's 2025 production guidance, which was raised to a 1.71-1.72 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) range.

Here's the quick math on the risk:

Rising interest rates increasing the cost of debt for the capital-intensive Plenitude build-out.

The multi-billion-euro expansion of Plenitude is a capital-intensive venture that relies on accessible and affordable financing. While the European Central Bank (ECB) has been cutting rates, the cost of debt remains elevated compared to the pre-2022 environment. For instance, the Euro Area long-term government bond yield was around 3.07% in October 2025. High-yield corporate bonds in Europe, while showing an attractive yield of around 5.1% as of late 2024, are not expected to see further significant spread tightening in 2025.

Eni's net borrowings stood at approximately €10.2 billion as of Q2 2025. The risk is that the market's expectation of continued rate cuts is too optimistic, or that a sudden inflation resurgence forces the ECB to pause or reverse course. This would directly increase the interest expense on new debt issued to fund Plenitude's target of 5.5 GW of installed renewable capacity by the end of 2025. Any unexpected rise in the cost of borrowing would immediately reduce the Net Present Value (NPV) of Plenitude's long-term assets, defintely slowing down the transition's financial returns.

Competition from pure-play renewable developers driving down power purchase agreement (PPA) prices, impacting Plenitude's margins.

Plenitude operates in a highly competitive market where pure-play renewable developers are focused solely on scale and driving down the cost of energy. This intense competition puts downward pressure on Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) prices, which are crucial for securing Plenitude's long-term revenue streams.

While European PPA prices for solar and wind were largely stable in Q1 2025, the market is described as having reached a 'pricing maturity and predictability phase,' which means easy, high margins are gone. The impact is already visible: Plenitude reported a proforma adjusted EBIT of €0.10 billion in Q3 2025, which was lower compared to the same quarter in 2024. This margin compression is a structural threat, not a cyclical one, and is driven by:

• Increased CapEx recalibration by pure-play developers leading to lower pricing offers.
• The shift from national to time-zonal pricing in EU markets, adding complexity to PPA negotiations.
• The need for Plenitude to secure long-term PPAs, such as the 10-year agreement signed with Autostrade per l'Italia in April 2025, at competitive rates to support its >5.5 GW capacity target.

Plenitude's success hinges on its ability to maintain an adjusted EBITDA above the €1.1 billion target for 2025, and PPA price erosion is the direct threat to that goal.