Eni S.P.A. (E): Analyse SWOT [Jan-2025 MISE À JOUR]

Dans le paysage dynamique de l'énergie mondiale, Eni S.P.A. se dresse à un carrefour critique, équilibrant son héritage traditionnel de combustible fossile avec une transformation ambitieuse vers des solutions durables. Cette analyse SWOT complète dévoile le positionnement stratégique de l'un des géants de l'énergie italienne, explorant comment l'entreprise aborde les défis du marché complexes, les perturbations technologiques et le changement mondial urgent vers les technologies à faible teneur en carbone. De son empreinte internationale solide à ses investissements stratégiques dans les énergies renouvelables, le parcours d'Eni reflète le récit plus large d'une industrie en transition profonde, où l'adaptabilité, l'innovation et la prévision stratégique sont essentielles au succès à long terme.

Eni S.P.A. (E) - Analyse SWOT: Forces

Société d'énergie intégrée verticalement

Eni opère dans toute la chaîne de valeur énergétique avec des opérations complètes dans:

• Exploration
• Production
• Raffinage
• Secteurs d'énergie renouvelable

Présence internationale

Opérations dans plus de 70 pays, avec une empreinte importante dans:

• Afrique (Algérie, Égypte, Libye, Congo)
• Moyen-Orient (EAU, Irak)
• Europe (Italie, Royaume-Uni, Norvège)
• Amériques (États-Unis, Mexico, Brésil)

Capacités technologiques

Investissements technologiques avancés:

• 1,1 milliard de dépenses de R&D en 2022
• Budget de transformation numérique: 350 millions d'euros
• Implémentations d'IA et d'apprentissage automatique dans les opérations en amont

Diversification du portefeuille d'énergie

Performance financière

Mesures financières clés pour 2022:

• Revenu total: 117,2 milliards d'euros
• Revenu net: 10,4 milliards d'euros
• Flux de trésorerie d'exploitation: 15,6 milliards d'euros
• EBIT: 22,8 milliards d'euros

ENI S.P.A. (E) - Analyse SWOT: faiblesses

Exposition élevée aux marchés mondiaux du pétrole et au gaz volatils et aux fluctuations des prix

Au quatrième trimestre 2023, les revenus d'Eni provenant des ventes d'hydrocarbures étaient de 24,8 milliards d'euros, avec une vulnérabilité importante aux fluctuations des prix du marché. La volatilité des prix du pétrole brut de Brent variait entre 70 $ et 95 $ le baril en 2023, ce qui concerne directement les revenus de la société.

Opérations héritées importantes et à forte intensité de carbone

Les émissions de carbone d'Eni en 2022 étaient d'environ 46,5 millions de tonnes d'équivalent CO2, ce qui représente une empreinte environnementale substantielle.

• Portée 1 & 2 émissions: 35,5 millions de tonnes CO2
• Portée 3 Émissions: 11 millions de tonnes CO2

Structure organisationnelle complexe

ENI opère dans 69 pays avec une structure organisationnelle complexe impliquant plusieurs filiales et unités commerciales.

Niveaux de dette substantiels et dépenses en capital

En décembre 2023, la dette financière nette totale d'Eni s'élevait à 16,3 milliards d'euros, avec des dépenses en capital annuelles d'environ 7,5 milliards d'euros.

• Dette financière nette: 16,3 milliards d'euros
• Dépenses en capital annuelles: 7,5 milliards d'euros
• Ratio dette / fonds propres: 0,45

Risques géopolitiques dans les régions opérationnelles

ENI a des opérations importantes dans des régions à haut risque, avec environ 30% de la production d'hydrocarbures survenant dans des pays africains politiquement instables.

ENI S.P.A. (E) - Analyse SWOT: Opportunités

Accélération de la transition vers les énergies renouvelables et les technologies à faible teneur en carbone

L'investissement en énergies renouvelables d'Eni prévoyait de atteindre 4,5 milliards d'euros d'ici 2025. La capacité actuelle des énergies renouvelables s'élève à 1,2 GW, avec des plans pour s'étendre à 5 GW d'ici 2025 et 15 GW d'ici 2030.

Élargir les investissements dans la production d'énergie hydrogène, solaire et éolien

ENI s'est engagé à 2,4 milliards d'euros d'investissement dans des projets d'hydrogène vert. Cible de capacité de production d'hydrogène actuelle:

• Production d'hydrogène vert: 2 millions de tonnes d'ici 2030
• Expansion de l'énergie solaire: 1 GW Capacité supplémentaire d'ici 2025
• Développement d'énergie éolienne: 2 nouvelles installations GW prévues

Potentiel de partenariats stratégiques sur les marchés de l'énergie verte émergente

Transformation numérique et mise en œuvre des technologies avancées dans la gestion de l'énergie

ENI a alloué 600 millions d'euros pour les initiatives de transformation numérique en 2024. Les investissements technologiques clés comprennent:

• Systèmes de maintenance prédictive dirigés par l'IA
• Blockchain pour l'optimisation de la chaîne d'approvisionnement
• Plateformes avancées d'analyse de données

Marché croissant pour les solutions énergétiques durables et les technologies de capture de carbone

Investissement de capture et de stockage du carbone (CCS) projeté à 1,5 milliard d'euros d'ici 2030. cibles de réduction du carbone actuelles:

Eni S.P.A. (E) - Analyse SWOT: Menaces

Augmentation de la pression réglementaire mondiale sur les émissions de carbone et l'atténuation du changement climatique

Le prix du carbone des émissions de l'Union européenne (EU ETS) a atteint 80,87 € la tonne en janvier 2024. Les mécanismes mondiaux de tarification du carbone couvrent environ 22% des émissions mondiales de gaz à effet de serre. L'Agence internationale de l'énergie prévoit que des entreprises comme ENI doivent réduire l'intensité du carbone de 55% d'ici 2030 pour s'aligner sur les objectifs de l'accord de Paris.

Concurrence intense des secteurs des énergies traditionnelles et renouvelables

Les investissements en énergie renouvelable ont atteint 495 milliards de dollars dans le monde en 2023. Les principaux concurrents comprennent:

• Énergies totales: 17,5 milliards de dollars d'investissement en énergies renouvelables en 2023
• Shell: 12,3 milliards de dollars d'investissement en énergies renouvelables en 2023
• BP: 10,8 milliards de dollars d'investissement en énergies renouvelables en 2023

Perturbation potentielle des progrès technologiques de l'énergie propre

L'efficacité technologique solaire photovoltaïque est passée à 26,7% en 2023. Les coûts de stockage de la batterie ont diminué de 89% depuis 2010, atteignant 132 $ / kWh en 2023.

Tensions géopolitiques affectant les marchés de l'énergie

L'indice mondial de volatilité du marché de l'énergie a atteint 24,6 en janvier 2024. Prime de risque de conflit du Moyen-Orient a augmenté les prix de l'énergie de 12,3% en 2023.

Changements de préférences des consommateurs et des investisseurs

Les fonds d'investissement axés sur l'ESG sont passés à 40,5 billions de dollars en 2023, ce qui représente 36% des actifs mondiaux sous gestion. Les énergies renouvelables ont attiré 73% des nouveaux investissements mondiaux de production d'électricité en 2023.

Eni S.p.A. (E) - SWOT Analysis: Opportunities

Capitalize on the global shift to natural gas as a transition fuel, securing long-term supply contracts

The global energy transition, while pushing renewables, still relies heavily on natural gas as a critical bridge fuel, and Eni is positioned to capitalize on this for decades. You see this clearly in their recent moves to lock in long-term supply. For example, in July 2025, Eni signed a 20-year liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales and purchase agreement with Venture Global. This deal secures 2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of LNG from the CP2 LNG facility in Louisiana, United States, starting by the end of the decade.

This single contract is a major step toward Eni's strategic goal of growing its total contracted LNG portfolio to approximately 20 MTPA by 2030, which diversifies supply for Europe and enhances Eni's global trading flexibility. That's a clear, long-term revenue stream. The ability to use existing infrastructure, like the Damietta LNG plant in Egypt, to process new discoveries further cements this advantage.

Accelerate Plenitude's growth through strategic M&A in mature European renewables markets

Plenitude, Eni's integrated retail and renewables unit, is a high-growth engine, and its strategy is to accelerate scale through targeted mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in established European markets. They are not just building from scratch; they are buying market share and customer bases. Plenitude currently operates over 4 GW of installed renewable capacity and has a clear target to reach 10 GW by 2028.

A concrete example of this strategy is the acquisition of Acea Energia in June 2025, a Rome-based provider of electricity, gas, and e-mobility services. This move expands Plenitude's customer base-already over 10 million customers across 15 countries-and strengthens its integrated model, which includes a network of over 21,500 electric vehicle (EV) charging points.

Develop Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) projects, leveraging existing infrastructure and expertise

Eni is defintely a first-mover in Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), which is essential for decarbonizing 'hard-to-abate' industrial sectors like cement and steel. They are leveraging their deep expertise in subsurface geology and their existing depleted hydrocarbon reservoirs for storage. In 2025, Eni plans to launch a new, dedicated Carbon Capture and Storage satellite company, consolidating all their projects under a single, fundable entity.

The company has two flagship projects underway:

• Liverpool Bay CCS Project (UK): Reached financial close with the UK Government in April 2025. Phase 1 capacity is 4.5 million tonnes of CO2 per year, with potential to scale to 10 million tonnes of CO2 per year in the 2030s.
• Ravenna CCS Project (Italy): Phase 1 began in September 2024, capturing 25,000 tonnes of CO2 per year from Eni's own gas plant emissions. Phase 2 aims to turn Ravenna into a major CCS hub for Southern Europe.

Here's the quick math: the initial phase of the Liverpool Bay project alone represents a significant new revenue stream from industrial emitters seeking a decarbonization solution.

Monetize midstream assets or a minority stake in Plenitude to fund further growth, potentially raising €2 billion

Eni's 'satellite model'-spinning off and partially selling stakes in high-growth, low-carbon businesses-is a brilliant way to fund the energy transition without straining the core balance sheet. This strategy has already delivered substantial capital in 2025. In June 2025, Eni sold a 20% stake in Plenitude to Ares Management Alternative Credit funds for approximately €2 billion. This transaction was based on an equity valuation of €10 billion for Plenitude.

This capital infusion of €2 billion provides immediate, non-debt funding for Plenitude's ambitious growth targets, including the aforementioned M&A activity and the expansion of its renewable capacity to 10 GW by 2028. It also validates the market value of Eni's transition-focused assets, a key indicator for investors.

New significant gas discoveries in emerging areas like the Eastern Mediterranean or Africa

Exploration success remains a core opportunity, providing high-margin, low-carbon intensity resources. Eni continues to make significant discoveries that secure long-term supply and solidify its strategic position in key regions. In 2025, Eni signed a major agreement with Egypt and Cyprus for the exploitation of the Cronos gas discovery in Block 6 offshore Cyprus. This will enable Cypriot gas to be exported to Europe via existing Eni infrastructure in Egypt.

In Africa, a major new discovery was made in Côte d'Ivoire with the Calao discovery in the CI-205 block, where Eni holds a 90% interest. This find is expected to strengthen Eni's exploration portfolio and contribute to future growth. The table below summarizes the key recent discoveries and their strategic implications.

The ability to quickly leverage existing assets, like the Zohr processing facilities, to bring new discoveries online is a huge competitive edge, reducing time-to-market.

Eni S.p.A. (E) - SWOT Analysis: Threats

Sustained low oil and gas prices eroding the cash flow needed to fund the energy transition.

The biggest near-term threat remains the volatility of hydrocarbon prices, which directly impacts the cash flow Eni needs to fund its massive energy transition plan, particularly the growth of Plenitude. The company's latest 2025 financial guidance is predicated on a conservative but still uncertain price environment.

For the 2025 fiscal year, Eni's updated scenario assumes a Brent crude price of $65 per barrel and a Title Transfer Facility (TTF) gas spot price of €40 per Megawatt-hour (MWh). While Eni has raised its expected adjusted Cash Flow From Operations (CFFO) before working capital to €12 billion for FY 2025, this is a significant reduction from the original plan's assumption of €13 billion, reflecting the pressure from a lower commodity price deck. A further drop below the $65/bbl Brent price would immediately stress the €5 billion net capital expenditure (CapEx) budget for the Group, potentially forcing a slowdown in the Plenitude build-out or increasing reliance on debt.

Regulatory risk from the European Union's increasingly stringent decarbonization policies.

The European Union's (EU) regulatory framework is becoming a financial headwind, not just a strategic one. The EU's 'Clean Industrial Deal,' presented in February 2025, reinforces the commitment to a 90% emissions reduction target by 2040, building on the existing 55% reduction goal by 2030. This translates into higher compliance costs and capital allocation risks for Eni's traditional upstream and refining businesses. The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), for instance, is designed to equalize the emission fee on imported and intra-EU products, which could complicate Eni's global supply chain and require significant administrative overhead.

The continuous tightening of these regulations forces Eni to accelerate CapEx toward lower-margin, transition-related assets like Plenitude, while simultaneously increasing the cost of operating its profitable legacy assets. This is a classic squeeze play. To be fair, Eni is ahead of the curve, targeting net-zero for its upstream Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 2030, but the regulatory pace is relentless.

Geopolitical events causing production disruptions, especially in key regions like Libya or Nigeria.

Eni's strategic focus on gas and its strong position in North Africa and West Africa exposes it to significant geopolitical instability, which can halt production and impact cash flow with little warning. Libya is a critical supplier, contributing approximately 3% of Eni's gas supply. The country has seen recurrent periods of instability, including oil export halts and production curtailment in late 2024 due to political standoffs over oil revenue control.

While Eni plans to invest around €8 billion in Libya by 2029 to boost energy production, this investment itself is at risk from the ongoing political fragmentation. Any prolonged disruption in a major region like Libya or Nigeria would immediately threaten the Group's 2025 production guidance, which was raised to a 1.71-1.72 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) range.

Here's the quick math on the risk:

Rising interest rates increasing the cost of debt for the capital-intensive Plenitude build-out.

The multi-billion-euro expansion of Plenitude is a capital-intensive venture that relies on accessible and affordable financing. While the European Central Bank (ECB) has been cutting rates, the cost of debt remains elevated compared to the pre-2022 environment. For instance, the Euro Area long-term government bond yield was around 3.07% in October 2025. High-yield corporate bonds in Europe, while showing an attractive yield of around 5.1% as of late 2024, are not expected to see further significant spread tightening in 2025.

Eni's net borrowings stood at approximately €10.2 billion as of Q2 2025. The risk is that the market's expectation of continued rate cuts is too optimistic, or that a sudden inflation resurgence forces the ECB to pause or reverse course. This would directly increase the interest expense on new debt issued to fund Plenitude's target of 5.5 GW of installed renewable capacity by the end of 2025. Any unexpected rise in the cost of borrowing would immediately reduce the Net Present Value (NPV) of Plenitude's long-term assets, defintely slowing down the transition's financial returns.

Competition from pure-play renewable developers driving down power purchase agreement (PPA) prices, impacting Plenitude's margins.

Plenitude operates in a highly competitive market where pure-play renewable developers are focused solely on scale and driving down the cost of energy. This intense competition puts downward pressure on Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) prices, which are crucial for securing Plenitude's long-term revenue streams.

While European PPA prices for solar and wind were largely stable in Q1 2025, the market is described as having reached a 'pricing maturity and predictability phase,' which means easy, high margins are gone. The impact is already visible: Plenitude reported a proforma adjusted EBIT of €0.10 billion in Q3 2025, which was lower compared to the same quarter in 2024. This margin compression is a structural threat, not a cyclical one, and is driven by:

• Increased CapEx recalibration by pure-play developers leading to lower pricing offers.
• The shift from national to time-zonal pricing in EU markets, adding complexity to PPA negotiations.
• The need for Plenitude to secure long-term PPAs, such as the 10-year agreement signed with Autostrade per l'Italia in April 2025, at competitive rates to support its >5.5 GW capacity target.

Plenitude's success hinges on its ability to maintain an adjusted EBITDA above the €1.1 billion target for 2025, and PPA price erosion is the direct threat to that goal.