Breaking Down NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors

You're looking at NextDecade Corporation's financials right now, trying to square the company's massive project momentum with its current-state losses, and honestly, that's the right tension to focus on. The reality is that while the company reported a Q3 2025 net loss of over $109.5 million, or -$0.42 per share, missing consensus estimates, that number is a snapshot of a company in a heavy development cycle, not a mature operating business. The real story for 2025 is the successful de-risking of the Rio Grande LNG facility: they secured positive Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) for both Train 4 and Train 5 in September and October, locking in approximately $13.4 billion in total project financing with partners like Global Infrastructure Partners (a part of BlackRock) and others. This means that as of September 2025, construction on Trains 1 and 2 is already 55.9% complete, turning a speculative venture into a concrete, 30 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) capacity build-out. The loss is a cost of doing business; the FIDs are the future revenue.

Revenue Analysis

You're looking at NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) right now, and the first thing you need to understand is that this is a major infrastructure development play, not an operating business-yet. The direct takeaway is simple: NextDecade reported $0 million in revenue for the three and six months ended June 30, 2025, a figure consistent with the prior year. This is defintely a pre-revenue company, so your focus should be on the contracted future cash flow, not the current income statement.

The company is currently in the heavy construction phase of its flagship Rio Grande Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) Facility in Brownsville, Texas. This means the primary revenue source, which will be LNG sales, is still years away from commissioning. The business model is built on two core segments that will eventually drive revenue:

• LNG Sales: Long-term, take-or-pay contracts for the liquefaction and export of natural gas.
• NEXT Carbon Solutions: Revenue from carbon capture and storage (CCS) services, a strategic differentiator.

Right now, the year-over-year revenue growth rate is flat at 0%, as there is no revenue to grow from. But, to be a realist, you must look at the future forecast. Analysts are projecting an annual revenue growth rate of 102.5% once the facility becomes operational and the contracted volumes start flowing. That's a massive shift from zero to a significant global player, and it's why the stock trades on future potential.

The most significant change in the revenue outlook is the successful commercialization of future production, which has de-risked the project's long-term cash flow. This is the real story of 2025. The company has secured multi-decade Sale and Purchase Agreements (SPAs) with global energy giants, locking in a substantial portion of the facility's capacity. Here's the quick math on the key contracts finalized in 2025 for future revenue:

The total contracted volume for Train 4 alone is 4.6 MTPA (Million Tonnes Per Annum), which is a clear signal of market confidence in the project's execution. This contract backlog is the foundation of the company's future revenue, not the current zero-revenue status. For more on the long-term vision driving these deals, you can review Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of NextDecade Corporation (NEXT).

Profitability Metrics

You're looking at NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) and seeing negative margins, and honestly, you should. But for a company like this, that's actually the right signal. The direct takeaway is that NextDecade Corporation is a pre-revenue company, meaning its profitability metrics are technically meaningless-they are all negative 100% because there is no revenue to divide the costs by.

The real story isn't the margins themselves, but the cost structure driving the net loss as the Rio Grande Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) facility's construction scales. In the third quarter of 2025, NextDecade Corporation reported no revenue but a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $109.5 million. This loss is the cost of building future profitability.

Gross, Operating, and Net Profit Margins

Since NextDecade Corporation is still in the construction phase of its multi-billion dollar LNG facility, it has not yet begun commercial operations to generate sales (revenue). This means the standard profitability margins-Gross Profit Margin, Operating Profit Margin, and Net Profit Margin-are all effectively non-existent or deeply negative. This is defintely a classic 'growth phase' profile in capital-intensive infrastructure.

Here's the quick math on the Q3 2025 loss drivers:

• Operating Expenses: $72.0 million (mostly General & Administrative).
• Interest Expense: $40.3 million (reflecting the massive debt financing for the project).
• Derivative Loss: $74.1 million (tied to hedging activities, which can be volatile).

The total net loss of $109.5 million for Q3 2025 is a direct result of these large, necessary development-phase expenditures. You're paying for the future revenue stream right now.

Trends in Profitability and Operational Efficiency

The trend in NextDecade Corporation's net loss is actually worsening, which is expected as the project advances. The net loss in Q3 2025 of $109.5 million is a significant jump from the Q2 2025 net loss of approximately $60.9 million. This deterioration is a function of increased activity, not poor management. As construction progresses and financing for Trains 4 and 5 was finalized in Q3 2025, the associated interest and administrative costs naturally climbed. The General and Administrative (G&A) expense alone hit $66.1 million in Q3 2025, showing the ramp-up in corporate and development spending.

Operational efficiency, in this context, is about cost management and construction progress, not margin. As of September 2025, Trains 1 and 2 were 55.9% complete, with Train 3 at 33.4% completion. That physical progress is the true measure of operational efficiency for the moment.

Comparison with Industry Averages

To understand the potential, you have to look at established, operational U.S. LNG peers. Companies that are already exporting gas show what NextDecade Corporation is aiming for. For example, a major peer like Venture Global reported Q3 2025 revenue of approximately $3.3 billion and income from operations of approximately $1.3 billion.

Here is the stark difference between a company in the construction phase and one in the operational phase:

The peer's operating margin of roughly 39.4% shows the kind of high-margin, fee-for-service business NextDecade Corporation is building toward. The investment decision here is a bet on the successful transition from the left column to the right. For a deeper look at who is backing this transition, check out Exploring NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) Investor Profile: Who's Buying and Why?

Debt vs. Equity Structure

You're looking at NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) and seeing massive capital projects, so the first question is always: how are they paying for it? The short answer is: heavily through debt, which is typical for a major infrastructure build, but the leverage is high.

As of June 2025, NextDecade Corporation's total debt stood at approximately $5.31 billion USD, a significant figure reflecting the construction phase of the Rio Grande LNG facility. This total debt includes both long-term and short-term obligations, and it's mostly non-recourse project-level financing-meaning the debt is primarily secured by the project's assets and future cash flows, not the parent company's balance sheet.

Here's the quick math on the corporate leverage: NextDecade Corporation's Debt-to-Equity (D/E) ratio was reported at about 3.42 as of September 30, 2025. This ratio is a clear signal of high financial leverage, telling you the company uses more than three dollars of debt for every dollar of equity to finance its assets.

• Compare this to a major peer like Cheniere Energy, which operates with a D/E ratio closer to 1.96.
• For a capital-intensive energy infrastructure company, a D/E ratio exceeding 2.5 can be a flag, but it's defintely not uncommon during the peak construction phase before a project starts generating revenue.

The company's financing strategy is a masterclass in balancing pure debt with equity-linked instruments. For instance, the recent positive Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) for Trains 4 and 5 secured approximately $13.4 billion in total project financing, with Train 5 alone closing an approximately $6.7 billion package in October 2025, which included a $3.59 billion senior secured, non-recourse bank credit facility. This project-level debt often follows a roughly 60% debt to 40% equity split.

Recent refinancing activity shows how NextDecade Corporation is managing its corporate debt load and cost of capital:

• November 2025 Refinancing: The company added an incremental $50 million Series A term loan and recharacterized another $50 million of existing principal as Series A loans.
• Equity-Linked Debt: These Series A loans carry an 8.0% interest rate and are exchangeable into common stock at $9.50 per share. This is a smart move, giving lenders an equity upside while keeping the interest rate lower than the Series B loans, which bear a higher 13.5% rate.
• Warrants: Earlier in January 2025, a $175 million senior secured loan at 12.0% interest was announced, which included the issuance of warrants, another way to dilute future equity to secure current debt funding.

This mix of non-recourse project debt and high-interest corporate loans with equity sweeteners shows a company aggressively funding its growth. The risk is clear-high interest payments and potential future shareholder dilution-but the opportunity is the massive cash flow expected once the LNG trains are operational. The company's future hinges on the successful, on-budget completion of its Rio Grande LNG facility. You can read more about the long-term strategy here: Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of NextDecade Corporation (NEXT).

Liquidity and Solvency

You're looking at NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) and seeing a company in a massive construction phase, so its liquidity picture is definitely unconventional. The direct takeaway is this: traditional liquidity metrics look weak, but this is entirely expected for a capital-intensive developer. The real strength lies not in the balance sheet's current assets but in the project-level financing that secures the Rio Grande LNG facility's build-out.

Here's the quick math on the near-term position, based on the most recent data through September 30, 2025.

Assessing NextDecade Corporation's Liquidity Ratios

NextDecade Corporation's current and quick ratios show a tight liquidity position, which is typical before a major infrastructure project starts generating revenue. The current ratio, which measures current assets against current liabilities, sits at 0.64. A ratio below 1.0 signals negative working capital, meaning current debts exceed the assets available to pay them off within a year. The quick ratio, a stricter measure that excludes inventory (which is illiquid), is even lower at 0.18.

What this estimate hides is that the company's business model is built on project finance, not on maintaining a large corporate cash cushion for day-to-day operations. The low ratios reflect high current liabilities related to the Rio Grande LNG construction, while the cash to cover those is often held at the project-level entities or secured via committed debt facilities.

• Current Ratio: 0.64 (TTM Sep 2025).
• Quick Ratio: 0.18 (TTM Sep 2025).
• Working Capital Trend: Structurally negative during the intense construction phase.

Cash Flow Dynamics and Financing Strength

The cash flow statement for the trailing twelve months (TTM) ending August 2025 tells the true story of a company in a massive growth cycle. Operating cash flow is negative, as no LNG sales have commenced. But the financing activity is robust, which is the key to their solvency.

The cash flow trends are clear:

• Operating Cash Flow: -$145.4 million. This is the cost of running the business before the trains are operational.
• Investing Cash Flow: -$2.731 billion. This massive outflow is the capital expenditure for the Rio Grande LNG facility construction.
• Financing Cash Flow: $3.130 billion. This inflow covers the capital spend, primarily from project-level debt and equity raises.

The company is defintely a cash sink right now, but it's being backfilled by massive, targeted financing. This is the nature of a multi-billion-dollar infrastructure build.

Liquidity Outlook and Project Funding

The primary liquidity strength is the successful financial close on the expansion trains. For Trains 4 and 5, NextDecade Corporation secured approximately $6.7 billion in project financing, which provides the necessary capital to fund the equity commitments and construction costs. This is a huge de-risking event. The company also secured a $734 million FinCo Loan and a $600 million Super FinCo Loan in September 2025 to fully fund its equity commitments for Train 4.

While the corporate balance sheet shows low traditional liquidity, the project finance structure insulates the construction from general market volatility. The risk shifts from general corporate liquidity to project execution and timely completion. Once Trains 1 through 3 are operational, management projects annual fixed fees of approximately $1.8 billion, which will fundamentally change the operating cash flow picture and is expected to make the company free cash flow-positive by late 2027. For a deeper dive into the capital structure and who is backing these projects, you should read Exploring NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) Investor Profile: Who's Buying and Why?

Valuation Analysis

You're looking at NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) and wondering if the market has already priced in the massive Rio Grande LNG project. Honestly, for a company in a heavy development and construction phase like this, traditional valuation metrics can be misleading, but they still tell a story of market expectation.

The direct takeaway is that NextDecade Corporation's valuation, as of November 2025, looks expensive on current metrics, but analysts still see significant upside, suggesting it is a growth-story stock priced for future cash flows, not today's earnings.

Here's the quick math on why it looks pricey right now. Since the company is still building its core asset, the Rio Grande LNG facility, it is not generating significant positive earnings yet. For the 2025 fiscal year, the consensus for Earnings Per Share (EPS) is negative, ranging from approximately -$1.42 to -$2.06, so the Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is not applicable (N/A) or negative.

The Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio, which compares the stock price to the company's book value per share, is sitting high at approximately 10.37 as of late 2025. This is a clear signal that investors are valuing the company far above its current net asset value, betting heavily on the future success of the LNG terminal. A P/B ratio this high defintely indicates a premium valuation based on growth expectations.

Also, look at the Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA) ratio. For the third quarter of 2025, the TTM (Trailing Twelve Months) EV/EBITDA was reported at a very high 76.37. This multiple is high because the company's LTM EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) is still negative (around -$186 million as of September 2025), but the market's Enterprise Value is huge-around $8.15 billion-reflecting the debt and equity used to fund the construction of the multi-billion-dollar project.

• P/E Ratio (2025 FY): N/A (Negative EPS forecast)
• P/B Ratio (Nov 2025): 10.37 (High premium on book value)
• EV/EBITDA (2025 Q3 TTM): 76.37 (Reflects high growth expectation over current earnings)

What this estimate hides is the massive project financing and construction progress, which is the real driver here. For instance, the company achieved Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) and financial close on Trains 4 and 5 in late 2025, which is a huge de-risking event.

Turning to the stock price, it's been a volatile ride over the last 12 months. The stock has seen a 52-week range between a low of $5.16 and a high of $12.12, with a recent closing price around $5.99 in mid-November 2025. The stock price has actually decreased by about -14.65% over the last 52 weeks, despite the positive project news. This suggests a classic case of a growth stock pulling back after a major run-up, or perhaps a temporary concern over construction costs and timelines.

Since NextDecade Corporation is a growth company focused on capital-intensive construction, they do not pay a dividend. Your dividend yield and payout ratio are both 0.00%.

The analyst consensus is still relatively optimistic, even with the recent price slump. The overall consensus is a Hold rating from most analysts, but the average 12-month price target is between $8.50 and $9.67. That average target suggests an upside of over 40% from the current price, which is why the stock is not a clear 'Sell.'

The valuation table below summarizes the key data points you need to consider:

To be fair, the market is treating NextDecade Corporation as a long-term infrastructure play, not a typical energy producer. Your action should be to monitor the construction milestones and the project financing, not the P/E ratio. For a more complete picture, check out the full analysis at Breaking Down NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Risk Factors

You're looking at NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) because of the massive potential in its Rio Grande LNG Facility and its decarbonization focus, but you must first understand the reality: this is a development-stage company with no operating revenue, so its risks are existential. The immediate financial health hinges entirely on project execution and capital management, not sales. Honesty, the biggest threat is the clock and the budget.

The company's financial reports for the 2025 fiscal year clearly show the strain of being in a heavy construction phase. For the three months ended September 30, 2025, NextDecade Corporation reported a net loss attributable to common stockholders of over $109.482 million, with total operating expenses hitting $71.963 million. That's a net loss per common share of $(0.42). That's a lot of cash going out before any comes in, which is typical for a capital-intensive project, but it means financing risk is paramount.

Here's a quick look at the core risks we're tracking:

• Project Execution Risk: Delays or cost overruns at the Rio Grande LNG Facility could decimate projections. For example, Trains 1 and 2, along with common facilities, were 55.9% complete as of September 2025, but Train 3 was only 33.4% complete. Missing a completion deadline means pushing back the start of revenue generation.
• Financial & Liquidity Risk: With a trailing twelve-month negative EBITDA of $199.375 million as of August 2025, the company relies on securing debt and equity. They just secured approximately $13.4 billion in total project funding for Trains 4 and 5, but the sheer scale of the investment-with each train expected to cost around $6.7 billion-means any hiccup in the financing structure is a major problem.
• Regulatory & Political Risk: The energy sector is defintely a political football. Changes in Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) or Department of Energy (DOE) policy, or new environmental regulations impacting LNG exports or Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) incentives, could slow down or even stop future phases like the planned Trains 6 through 8.

The company is mitigating these risks strategically. They've locked in long-term Sale and Purchase Agreements (SPAs) for their LNG, which provides revenue visibility and makes the project financeable. These SPAs, with partners like Saudi Aramco, TotalEnergies, and JERA, de-risk the market side of the equation. Plus, securing the $13.4 billion in project funding for Trains 4 and 5, which had positive Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) in September and October 2025, shows they can execute on the financing front. To dive deeper into who's backing this venture, you should check out Exploring NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) Investor Profile: Who's Buying and Why?

Still, the financial cost of this development phase is clear. Look at the capital commitment for the expansion trains:

The total capital expenditure for just these two trains is roughly $13.4 billion. That's a massive bet on future cash flows, and it means the company's stock price will remain highly sensitive to construction updates and financing news for years to come. The next concrete step for you is to monitor the quarterly construction progress reports for any deviation from the 55.9% completion rate for Phase 1. Any slippage is a red flag.

Growth Opportunities

You're looking at NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) and trying to map the path from a development-stage company to a cash-flow powerhouse. Honestly, the near-term financial picture for 2025 is stark: the company is still pre-revenue. As of the Q3 2025 filing, NextDecade reported no revenues, which is normal for a major infrastructure project in the middle of construction. But what matters here is the massive, irreversible progress that locks in future growth.

The core growth driver is the Rio Grande LNG (RGLNG) Facility, a multi-phase platform in Brownsville, Texas. The company's strategy isn't just about building one project; it's about building one of the largest LNG export sites in the world. NextDecade has already secured the foundation for up to 30 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of production capacity across Trains 1 through 5, which is about 5% of the projected global liquefaction supply in the early 2030s. That's a huge slice of the global energy pie.

The near-term risk is the burn rate. For the three months ended September 30, 2025, the company's total operating expenses were $71.963 million, resulting in a net loss of $109.482 million attributable to common stockholders. That's the cost of building a mega-project, but it means the clock is ticking until first gas. Analysts project the annual revenue growth rate will eventually hit an eye-watering 102.5% per year once operations begin, a dramatic shift from the current zero.

Here's the quick math on the project's momentum as of late 2025:

• Phase 1 (Trains 1-3) construction reached 55.9% overall completion in Q3 2025.
• Positive Final Investment Decisions (FIDs) were achieved for Trains 4 and 5, with construction starting in September and October 2025, respectively.
• Trains 4 and 5 secured over $13.4 billion in project financing.

The company defintely moved past the riskiest phase-regulatory and financing-in 2025. The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) reaffirmed its authorization for the first five trains, and the order is no longer appealable as of October 30, 2025. That regulatory clarity is a massive competitive advantage others in the sector still face.

The company's strategic partnerships and competitive advantages are what position it for this explosive future growth. They've locked in decades of stable revenue with long-term Sale and Purchase Agreements (SPAs).

What this estimate hides is the operational risk; the first four trains are projected to generate over $500 million in EBITDA once operational, but that won't happen until the end of the decade. Still, the dual focus on massive LNG capacity and the integrated Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) project, which offers lower-carbon LNG, gives NextDecade a powerful edge in a world demanding both energy security and lower emissions. For a deeper dive into the capital structure supporting this build-out, you should check out Exploring NextDecade Corporation (NEXT) Investor Profile: Who's Buying and Why?

Your clear action here is to monitor the construction progress-specifically the percentage completion numbers-and the financing updates for Trains 6-8, as those will signal the next wave of capital commitment and long-term value creation.