Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (ASR): Análisis de 5 Fuerzas [Actualizado en Ene-2025]

Sumérgete en el intrincado mundo de Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR), donde el delicado equilibrio de las fuerzas del mercado da forma a su paisaje estratégico. Como jugador clave en la gestión del aeropuerto de México y el Caribe, ASR navega por un ecosistema complejo de proveedores, clientes, competidores y desafíos tecnológicos. Este análisis de profundidad de las cinco fuerzas de Porter revela la dinámica crítica que impulsa el posicionamiento competitivo de la compañía, descubriendo los matices estratégicos que determinan su resistencia y potencial de crecimiento en el mercado de infraestructura de aviación en constante evolución.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (ASR) - Las cinco fuerzas de Porter: poder de negociación de los proveedores

Paisaje del fabricante de aeronaves globales

A partir de 2024, solo dos fabricantes de aviones comerciales principales dominan el mercado global:

• Boeing: cuota de mercado del 48%
• Airbus: cuota de mercado del 50%

Concentración del mercado de proveedores

Requisitos de inversión de capital

Rango de inversión de equipos de infraestructura del aeropuerto: $ 50 millones a $ 250 millones por actualización importante del aeropuerto

Características del contrato de suministro

• Duración típica del contrato: 7-10 años
• Cláusula promedio de escalada de precios: 2.5% anual
• Flexibilidad de negociación: limitado a los términos del contrato del 15-20%

Métricas de dependencia del proveedor

La dependencia de ASR en proveedores especializados:

• Dependencia de la flota de aviones Boeing: 65%
• Dependencia de la flota de aviones Airbus: 35%
• Dependencia del equipo de infraestructura crítica: 80%

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (ASR) - Las cinco fuerzas de Porter: poder de negociación de los clientes

Composición de la base de clientes

A partir de 2024, Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste administra 9 aeropuertos en México y el Caribe, sirviendo a múltiples segmentos de clientes:

• Aerolíneas: 32 transportistas comerciales
• Pasajeros: 24.7 millones de pasajeros anuales en 2023
• Operadores de carga: 78,500 toneladas métricas de carga manejadas anualmente

Análisis de sensibilidad de precios

Dinámica de la demanda del mercado

Métricas de demanda de servicio aeropuerto regional:

• Crecimiento de pasajeros del aeropuerto de México: 18.3% en 2023
• Crecimiento de pasajeros del aeropuerto del Caribe: 15.7% en 2023
• Inversión en infraestructura del aeropuerto: $ 276 millones en 2023

Potencial de cambio de cliente

INDICADORES DE COSTOS DE CAMBIO:

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (ASR) - Las cinco fuerzas de Porter: rivalidad competitiva

Portafolio del aeropuerto y posicionamiento del mercado

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste (ASR) administra 9 aeropuertos en México y el Caribe, incluidas ubicaciones clave en:

• Aeropuerto Internacional de Cancún
• Aeropuerto Internacional de Cozumel
• Aeropuerto Internacional Mérida
• Aeropuerto internacional de Villahermosa
• Otros aeropuertos del Caribe en Jamaica y República Dominicana

Análisis de paisaje competitivo

Rivales competitivos en la gestión del aeropuerto en México y la región del Caribe:

Barreras de entrada al mercado

Restricciones regulatorias clave para los nuevos participantes del mercado:

• Requisito de inversión inicial: $ 500 millones - $ 1.2 mil millones
• Proceso de aprobación de la concesión del gobierno
• Requisitos complejos de desarrollo de infraestructura
• Regulaciones estrictas de seguridad y cumplimiento operativo

Métricas de intensidad competitiva

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (ASR) - Las cinco fuerzas de Porter: amenaza de sustitutos

Modos de transporte alternativos

En 2023, el volumen de pasajeros de autobuses interurbanos de México alcanzó los 95,2 millones de viajeros. El grupo ADO opera 2.700 autobuses en 11 estados mexicanos, brindando competencia directa a las rutas del aeropuerto de ASR.

Sustitución de viajes de negocios

A nivel mundial, el tamaño del mercado de videoconferencia alcanzó los $ 6.38 mil millones en 2023, con un 9,7% proyectado de CAGR hasta 2028.

• Zoom reportó 300 millones de participantes diarios de reuniones en 2023
• Los equipos de Microsoft llegaron a 270 millones de usuarios activos

Infraestructura de carretera regional

La red federal de carreteras de México abarca 51,755 kilómetros a partir de 2023, con una inversión de infraestructura anual de $ 4.2 mil millones.

Tecnologías de transporte emergentes

La adopción de autobuses eléctricos en México aumentó a 694 unidades en 2023, lo que representa un crecimiento año tras año.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (ASR) - Las cinco fuerzas de Porter: amenaza de nuevos participantes

Alta inversión de capital inicial

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste requiere una inversión de capital sustancial para la infraestructura del aeropuerto. A partir de 2024, el gasto de capital estimado para el desarrollo del aeropuerto oscila entre $ 250 millones y $ 500 millones.

Regulaciones gubernamentales

Costos de cumplimiento regulatorio: Gastos de cumplimiento anuales estimados de $ 10-15 millones para operadores del aeropuerto.

• La Autoridad de Aviación Civil mexicana (DGAC) exige estrictos estándares operativos
• Requisitos mínimos de inversión de seguridad de $ 5-8 millones anuales
• Costos de cumplimiento ambiental: $ 2-4 millones por año

Licencias y requisitos operativos

ASR opera 9 aeropuertos en México, con complejos procesos de licencia.

Limitaciones de expansión geográfica

La actual red del aeropuerto de ASR cubre el sureste de México, con oportunidades de expansión limitadas.

• 9 aeropuertos gestionados actualmente
• Cobertura geográfica: Quintana Roo, Yucatán, Regiones Chiapas
• Potencial de expansión: nuevas ubicaciones mínimas disponibles

Barreras tecnológicas y financieras

Se requieren importantes inversiones tecnológicas para las operaciones modernas del aeropuerto.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (ASR) - Porter's Five Forces: Competitive rivalry

You're looking at the core of the competitive battleground for Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (ASR) right now, and honestly, the numbers from its home market tell a clear story of pressure.

The Mexican airport sector operates as a structured oligopoly, meaning you've got a few big players controlling the space; ASR's main rivals here are Grupo Aeroportuario del Centro Norte, S. A. B. de C. V. (OMA) and Grupo Aeroportuario del Pacífico, S. A. B. de C. V. (PAC). While ASR grapples with softness in its domestic Mexican passenger volumes, OMA has been posting solid, consistent growth across its network. For instance, OMA reported its October 2025 terminal passenger traffic increased 8.5% year-over-year, with international traffic up 10.1%. Compare that to ASR's own Mexico operations for Q3 2025, where total passenger traffic actually decreased 1.1% year-over-year, driven by domestic traffic down 1.8% and international traffic down 0.3%. That difference in performance definitely shows where the rivalry is heating up.

This competitive environment is definitely weighing on ASR's profitability metrics. For the third quarter of 2025, the company's consolidated EBITDA declined 1.3% year-over-year, landing at Ps. 4,639.4 million. Furthermore, the adjusted EBITDA margin, which strips out the construction revenue effect, contracted to 66.7% from 68.3% in the prior year's third quarter. To be fair, the EBITDA in Mexico specifically declined close to 4% in the quarter, which is a significant drag.

Here's a quick look at how the traffic performance contrasts between ASR's Mexico segment and OMA during the late 2025 period, which helps map the rivalry:

Because of this domestic softness, ASR is actively diversifying away from Mexico, using strategic acquisitions to secure revenue streams in more stable currencies and markets. This is a clear action to mitigate local competitive and economic risks. The competition for international carriers among the three major Mexican airport groups is fierce, but ASR is making moves outside of Mexico to counter this.

The diversification strategy involves significant capital deployment outside of its core Mexican concessions:

• Acquisition of URW's airport retail concessions for US$295 million; closing expected in Q4 2025.
• Agreement to acquire CPC, which holds stakes in airports across Brazil, Ecuador, Costa Rica, and Curaçao.
• The CPC deal implies an enterprise value of R$13,700 million (US$2,566 million).
• The CPC portfolio reported proportionate EBITDA of R$1,300 million over the last twelve months.
• This acquisition is set to add over 45 million passengers to ASR's base, which was 71 million in 2024.

Still, even as ASR expands internationally, the competition for high-value international traffic remains a key factor across all its operations. While Mexico saw international traffic contract slightly in Q3 2025, ASR's Colombian operations showed strong international growth of 11.2% in the same period. The US retail acquisition also signals a direct play for high-yield international passenger spending at major US hubs.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (ASR) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of substitutes

The threat of substitutes for Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (ASR) is highly segmented, depending entirely on the specific route and travel distance involved. For short-to-medium haul regional travel within the Yucatan Peninsula, a new government-backed competitor has emerged, though its immediate impact on ASR's core business appears limited.

The Maya Train is a government-backed regional rail substitute in the Yucatan Peninsula, connecting key tourist and population centers across the southeast states of Tabasco, Chiapas, Campeche, Yucatán, and Quintana Roo. The final section of its 1,554-kilometer route was inaugurated on December 15, 2024. Initial ridership data suggests growing popularity for regional tourism trips.

Initial Maya Train ridership is low relative to air travel volumes, and its inland route is less convenient for tourists whose primary destination is coastal or requires direct airport access. For instance, as of summer 2025, the train broke a record with over 50,000 weekly passengers. The most in-demand corridor, Cancún to Palenque, boasted an average weekend occupancy rate of 92%. However, by July 15, 2025, the total number of passengers transported was 1,359,317. To put this in perspective against ASR's scale, in Q3 2025, ASR's consolidated total passenger traffic was up 0.4% year-over-year, while its Mexican operations saw a 1.1% decrease in total traffic.

Long-haul international air travel, which forms a significant part of Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (ASR)'s business across its operations in Mexico, Puerto Rico, and Colombia, has no viable substitute as of late 2025. The high-value, long-distance routes that feed into ASR's hubs simply cannot be replicated by ground or sea transport in terms of speed or directness. This is evidenced by the strong international growth in ASR's non-Mexican operations during Q3 2025, with Colombia seeing a 11.2% increase and Puerto Rico seeing an 11.7% increase in international traffic.

Bus and ferry services are poor substitutes for the long distances ASR's airports cover, especially for the international segment. While buses compete with domestic air travel on shorter routes, the experience is often inferior. For example, the Maya Train has been noted to transform what was a grueling, 12+ hour overnight bus ride to Palenque into a comfortable train journey. Furthermore, the train itself faces infrastructure lag, with reports noting that in Tulum, passengers disembark at a station far from the town center, leading to taxi shortages and fare surges. ASR's financial results reflect the relative strength of air travel; Q3 2025 revenues reached Ps. 8,765.4 million, and the company maintained a strong cash position of Ps. 16,259.3 million at September 30, 2025.

The threat of substitution is therefore concentrated in specific, shorter domestic corridors where the Maya Train operates, but the core, high-yield international traffic remains largely insulated. You should watch the Maya Train's planned freight line, which is slated for a first phase completion by the end of 2026, as that could introduce a new competitive dynamic for cargo, which is a different force entirely. For now, the substitution risk is localized.

• The Maya Train station near Tulum is reportedly located far from the heart of town.
• The Cancún Airport station sold 180,079 tickets by January 21, 2025.
• ASR's consolidated EBITDA for Q3 2025 was Ps. 4,639.4 million.
• The Maya Train is not expected to break even on passenger service alone until 2030.

Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (ASR) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of new entrants

You're looking at the barriers to entry for Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (ASR), and honestly, the picture is one of entrenched, government-sanctioned dominance, but with a couple of very specific, recent cracks appearing.

Barriers are extremely high due to the long-term, government-granted concession model. This isn't like opening a new coffee shop; ASR operates under agreements that grant exclusive rights to operate, maintain, and develop its airports for a stated time. For its core Mexican assets, these concessions run from 1998 to 2048, a 50-year term. This structure effectively locks out direct competition for decades, as the government retains ultimate ownership of the infrastructure.

However, the threat materializes differently than traditional entry. The new, state-owned Tulum Airport is a direct entrant, diverting an estimated 426,287 passengers (Jan-Aug 2025). This new capacity, even with its reported connectivity issues, represents a direct, government-backed competitor siphoning traffic away from ASR's key Southeast Mexico operations. To put this in context, Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (ASR) reported a year-to-date total passenger traffic of 27,875,680 passengers as of August 2025, representing a 2.5% decrease compared to the same period in 2024.

The structure of the existing framework means new private concessions in ASR's core Mexican market are virtually impossible right now. The existing agreements are long-term and exclusive, meaning a new operator can't simply bid for a piece of Cancun International Airport tomorrow. The government manages changes through Master Development Plans (MDPs) negotiated every five years, which solidifies the position of the incumbent operator, as seen when ASR secured a favorable MDP recently.

Where the threat is more immediate and tangible is in ASR's diversification efforts. ASR's strategic entry into US commercial airport retail (JFK, LAX) introduces new, established competitors in a different arena. Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste, S. A. B. de C. V. (ASR) announced a deal to acquire Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield (URW)'s retail concessions at key terminals at John F. Kennedy International Airport (JFK), Los Angeles International Airport (LAX), and Chicago O'Hare International Airport (ORD) for an enterprise value of \$295 million. While this is an acquisition of an existing business, not a greenfield entry, it places ASR directly against established, large-scale airport retail operators who already dominate the concession space at major US gateway airports like JFK and LAX.

Here's a quick look at the competitive landscape shift in the US retail segment:

The threat of new entrants, therefore, is bifurcated. In Mexico, it's a low-probability, high-impact threat from state-backed projects like Tulum, which is already showing traffic diversion effects. In the US, the threat is immediate competition from established players in the retail sector, even as ASR buys into that market.

The key takeaways on this force are:

• Mexican concession model creates near-absolute barriers.
• Concession terms for ASR run until 2048.
• New state entrant (Tulum) diverted an estimated 426,287 passengers (Jan-Aug 2025).
• ASR's US retail expansion cost \$295 million.
• US retail entry means competing with operators at major hubs.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday