Ing groep n.v. (ing): análise SWOT [Jan-2025 Atualizada]

No mundo dinâmico do setor bancário global, o Ing Groep N.V. está em uma interseção crítica de inovação digital, resiliência financeira e transformação estratégica. Como uma instituição financeira internacional líder, o ING navega em um cenário complexo de interrupção tecnológica, desafios de mercado e oportunidades emergentes, posicionando -se para alavancar sua infraestrutura digital robusta, abordagem bancária sustentável e presença estratégica do mercado. Essa análise SWOT abrangente revela a intrincada dinâmica que molda a estratégia competitiva da ING em 2024, oferecendo informações sobre como o banco está pronto para abordar possíveis vulnerabilidades, capitalizando seus principais pontos fortes em um ecossistema financeiro cada vez mais competitivo.

Ing groep n.v. (ing) - Análise SWOT: Pontos fortes

Forte plataforma bancária digital com serviços móveis e online avançados

A ing atende a 38,4 milhões de clientes bancários digitais em 40 países. Os downloads de aplicativos bancários móveis atingiram 14,2 milhões em 2023. O volume de transações digitais aumentou 22,7% em comparação com o ano anterior.

Presença internacional robusta em toda a Europa e mercados emergentes

O ing opera em 40 países com presença significativa no mercado em:

• Holanda: 34,6% de participação de mercado no banco de varejo
• Bélgica: 26,8% de participação de mercado no banco de varejo
• Alemanha: 18,5% de participação de mercado no banco digital

Desempenho financeiro sólido

Infraestrutura tecnológica avançada

Investimento em tecnologia: 1,2 bilhão de euros alocados à transformação e inovação digital em 2023. Inteligência artificial e integração de aprendizado de máquina em plataformas bancárias.

Forte reputação da marca em bancos sustentáveis

• € 55,4 bilhões comprometidos com financiamento sustentável em 2023
• 3 principais classificações no índice de sustentabilidade Dow Jones para setor bancário
• Operações neutras em carbono alcançadas desde 2020

Ing groep n.v. (ing) - Análise SWOT: Fraquezas

Alta exposição ao mercado bancário europeu competitivo

Em 2023, o mercado bancário europeu mostrou intensa concorrência com mais de 5.300 instituições de crédito. A penetração do mercado de ING nos principais mercados europeus revela desafios:

Custos de conformidade regulatórios e regulamentos bancários internacionais complexos

As despesas de conformidade da ING em 2023 atingiram 782 milhões de euros, representando 7,4% do total de despesas operacionais.

• Custos de implementação de Basileia III: € 215 milhões
• Conformidade de lavagem de dinheiro: 267 milhões de euros
• Atualização de sistemas de relatórios regulatórios: 124 milhões de euros

Vulnerabilidade potencial a flutuações econômicas nos principais mercados

Indicadores de sensibilidade econômica para os mercados primários da ING:

A transformação digital em andamento requer investimento contínuo significativo

Investimento de transformação digital para 2023-2024:

• Investimento total de infraestrutura digital: € 1,2 bilhão
• Aprimoramento da segurança cibernética: € 387 milhões
• Integração de IA e aprendizado de máquina: 215 milhões de euros
• Migração e modernização em nuvem: € 298 milhões

Participação de mercado relativamente mais baixa em comparação com algumas instituições bancárias globais maiores

Comparação de participação no mercado bancário global em 2023:

Ing groep n.v. (ing) - Análise SWOT: Oportunidades

Expandindo soluções bancárias digitais e fintech

O potencial do mercado bancário digital da ING mostra uma trajetória de crescimento significativa. Em 2023, o banco registrou 16,3 milhões de clientes bancários digitais, com um aumento de 12,7% em relação ao ano anterior nas transações digitais.

Mercado em crescimento para produtos financeiros sustentáveis ​​e verdes

A ing comprometeu € 32 bilhões a iniciativas de financiamento sustentável em 2023, visando € 75 bilhões em financiamento verde até 2025.

• Portfólio de Finanças Sustentáveis: € 32 bilhões
• Meta de financiamento verde: 75 bilhões de euros até 2025
• Investimentos de energia renovável: € 14,5 bilhões

Expansão potencial em mercados emergentes com serviços bancários digitais

Os mercados emergentes apresentam oportunidades significativas de crescimento para a estratégia bancária digital da ING.

Crescente demanda por soluções de tecnologia financeira personalizadas

O investimento da ING em soluções personalizadas de fintech atingiu 450 milhões de euros em 2023, com foco nas recomendações financeiras orientadas à IA.

• Investimento de Fintech: € 450 milhões
• Recomendações financeiras movidas a IA
• Desenvolvimento do algoritmo de personalização

Parcerias estratégicas com empresas de tecnologia e startups

A ING estabeleceu 17 parcerias de tecnologia estratégica em 2023, investindo 280 milhões de euros em colaborações de startups de fintech.

Ing groep n.v. (ing) - análise SWOT: ameaças

Concorrência intensa de bancos tradicionais e serviços financeiros nativos digitais

A partir de 2024, o cenário competitivo bancário mostra desafios significativos:

Riscos de segurança cibernética e possíveis violações de dados

O cenário de ameaças de segurança cibernética revela métricas críticas:

• € 127 milhões potencial impacto financeiro de incidentes cibernéticos
• 3.742 tentativas de ataque cibernético relataram em 2023
• 72% aumentou a sofisticação de ameaças à segurança digital

Potencial desaceleração econômica e volatilidade da taxa de juros

Aumento dos requisitos de escrutínio e conformidade regulatórios

Métricas de conformidade regulatória:

• € 294 milhões de investimentos anuais de conformidade
• 47 novos mandatos regulatórios em 2024
• 8,3% de aumento nos custos operacionais relacionados à conformidade

Mudanças tecnológicas rápidas que exigem adaptação constante

ING Groep N.V. (ING) - SWOT Analysis: Opportunities

Expand the 'One-to-Bank' digital platform to deepen customer relationships and cross-sell insurance and investment products.

The biggest near-term opportunity for ING is converting its vast customer base into higher-value relationships through the 'One-to-Bank' digital platform. You already have over 40 million total customers, but the real value is in the primary mobile users. In 2024, the mobile primary customer base grew by 1.1 million, reaching 14.4 million. The bank is on target to add another 1 million new mobile primary customers in the 2025 fiscal year. That's a huge pool for cross-selling.

This digital focus directly translates to higher-margin, non-interest income. The full-year 2025 fee income growth outlook was upgraded to over 10%, which is a strong signal of this strategy working. Specifically, in the third quarter of 2025, Retail fee income jumped 14% year-on-year, primarily driven by customers investing more through the platform. The platform is the engine for revenue diversification, plain and simple.

• Convert 37% mobile primary customers to multi-product users.
• Drive fee income growth, projected at >10% for full-year 2025.
• Focus growth in key markets like Germany, Spain, Italy, and Romania, which led customer gains in 2025.

Capitalize on the growing demand for sustainable finance and green bonds, where ING has an established lead.

ING is positioned to capture a disproportionate share of the rapidly expanding sustainable finance market. The bank's commitment to this space is clear: in 2024, ING mobilized €130 billion in sustainable financing, which is strong progress toward the 2027 goal of €150 billion annually. The momentum is accelerating in 2025; in the first nine months alone, the volume of sustainable finance mobilized surged by 29% year-on-year to €110 billion.

The green bond market is a core strength. The bank had over €10 billion in outstanding green bonds at the end of 2024. This is an opportunity because global sustainable finance issuance is still growing, reaching US$975 billion in the first seven months of 2025, with green bonds being the preferred instrument. ING can use its established Global Green Funding Framework to continue issuing green bonds to fund sustainable real estate and renewable energy projects, cementing its leadership in the transition finance space.

Further cost reduction through process automation and branch network optimization in core markets.

While ING has a strong digital footprint, there's still significant room to drive down its cost base through operational efficiency, especially as expenses are expected to be in the range of €12.5 billion to €12.7 billion for 2025. The cost/income ratio for the first half of 2025 was 55.0%. Reducing this ratio is a clear path to boosting Return on Equity (ROE), which was 13.0% in the first half of 2025.

The bank is already acting on this, with plans to cut up to 950 positions in the Netherlands by the end of 2026, driven by an AI-focused restructuring to modernize operations. This AI-driven automation is the key to offsetting inflationary wage pressures and investment costs. The goal here isn't just cutting costs, but making the digital platform more scalable and efficient, which helps future-proof the business model.

Strategic, targeted acquisitions in wealth management or specialized lending to diversify revenue streams.

The reliance on Net Interest Income (NII) is a structural weakness, so diversifying revenue streams is defintely a high-priority opportunity. ING is executing this through targeted, non-disruptive acquisitions. In March 2025, ING acquired a 20.3% stake in Van Lanschot Kempen N.V., a specialist wealth manager in the Netherlands and Belgium. This move is a strategic, long-term financial investment aimed at enhancing their position in private banking and wealth management without a full-scale, risky integration.

This targeted approach is smart. It gives ING access to a higher-margin, personalized client segment and aligns with the growing demand for ESG-driven investing that Van Lanschot Kempen is focused on. The transaction was structured to have a minimal impact on ING's robust Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio, which stood at 13.4% in Q3 2025. The opportunity is to continue this strategy in specialized lending or other wealth management niches across core European markets.

ING Groep N.V. (ING) - SWOT Analysis: Threats

Persistent low-to-negative interest rates in some core Eurozone markets could compress net interest margins (NIMs) again.

The core threat to ING's profitability remains the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy, especially the potential for interest rate cuts in a sub-trend growth environment. ING is highly reliant on Net Interest Income (NII), which accounted for approximately 79% of its revenues in 2024 (excluding volatile 'Other income'). While the commercial net interest margin (NIM) was 2.22% in the third quarter of 2025 (3Q2025), the first half of 2025 saw commercial NII decline by 3.2% year-on-year. This decline was due to lower liability NII as deposit margins normalized. If the ECB cuts its deposit rate below normal, as some ING Research suggests for 2025, it will directly pressure the bank's NII, despite efforts to mitigate this through volume growth.

Here's the quick math: A drop in the commercial NIM, even a small one, has a massive impact because NII is the biggest revenue driver. To counter this, ING is pushing fee-based services, which grew at a strong pace in 2025, with fee income making up almost 20% of total income in 2Q2025.

Increased competition from non-traditional financial technology (FinTech) firms and Big Tech entering payment services.

The digital banking landscape is a constant battleground. ING, as a long-time digital-native bank, faces intense pressure from neo banks and larger technology companies (Big Tech) that are aggressively entering the payment and transaction banking space. The threat is that core services like transaction banking are becoming 'almost for free' and 'almost real time,' which erodes a traditional source of bank revenue.

This competition forces massive, ongoing investment in digital transformation and scalable technology platforms. If onboarding takes 14+ days, churn risk rises. To be fair, ING's strategy is working to some extent, adding over 1.1 million mobile primary customers year-on-year by 2Q2025. Still, the competitive threat is real, especially as new European Union regulations are expected to encourage the entry of new players, with some banks anticipating a revenue impact of between 5% and 20% on payment services.

Heightened regulatory scrutiny and potential for new, complex European Union (EU) banking rules, increasing compliance costs.

The cost of compliance is defintely rising. The European Central Bank's (ECB) 2025 Supervisory Review and Evaluation Process (SREP) has resulted in higher capital requirements for ING in 2026. This means holding more capital, which limits lending and capital return to shareholders.

Specific regulatory increases include:

• Pillar 2 Additional Own Funds Requirement (P2R) is increasing by five basis points to 170 bps.
• The overall capital requirement is now set at 15.24%.
• A new Leverage Ratio Pillar 2 Requirement (P2RLR) of 10 basis points will raise the total leverage ratio requirement from 3.5% to 3.6% starting January 1, 2026.

In 3Q2025 alone, ING's total operating expenses included €67 million in regulatory costs. Plus, new EU regulations like the Financial Data Access (FIDA) framework, the digital euro, and the Payment Services Regulation (PSR) are projected to require significant infrastructure upgrades and could reshape business models.

Geopolitical instability and economic slowdowns in key operating regions like Germany or the Netherlands could hurt loan demand and increase credit risk.

Macroeconomic and geopolitical uncertainty remains prevalent, as noted by ING's CEO in 3Q2025. While ING's loan portfolio quality remains high, with risk costs below the through-the-cycle average of around 20 basis points, any economic downturn in core markets like Germany, the Netherlands, or Belgium poses a direct threat to asset quality.

The bank is already provisioning for this risk. In 2Q2025, risk costs included a €33 million addition to reflect a deterioration in macroeconomic forecasts. Furthermore, the net additions to loan loss provisions in 3Q2025 amounted to €326 million, which is equivalent to 19 basis points of average customer lending-just under the long-term average. This shows the bank is actively managing a rising risk environment.

Here is a breakdown of the 3Q2025 risk costs by segment:

What this estimate hides is that while Retail lending is growing strongly (up €8.6 billion in 3Q2025), primarily in mortgages, a sudden economic shock could quickly reverse this, spiking the cost of risk and forcing higher loan loss provisions. Finance: monitor Stage 2 loan migration in Germany and the Netherlands monthly.