The Macerich Company (MAC): 5 forças Análise [Jan-2025 Atualizada]

No cenário dinâmico dos imóveis comerciais, a empresa de Macerich navega em um complexo ecossistema de forças de mercado que moldam seu posicionamento estratégico. À medida que a dinâmica do shopping evolui em meio à interrupção tecnológica e à mudança de comportamentos do consumidor, entender a intrincada interação de energia do fornecedor, demandas de clientes, pressões competitivas, riscos de substituição e barreiras de entrada no mercado se tornam cruciais. Este mergulho profundo na estrutura das cinco forças de Porter revela os desafios e oportunidades diferenciados que Macerich enfrenta para manter sua vantagem competitiva no US $ 500 bilhões mercado imobiliário de varejo.

The Macerich Company (MAC) - As cinco forças de Porter: poder de barganha dos fornecedores

Concentração do fornecedor no desenvolvimento imobiliário comercial

A partir de 2024, a cadeia de suprimentos de construção imobiliária comercial demonstra concentração significativa. Os 4 principais fornecedores de materiais de construção controlam aproximadamente 62% do mercado de desenvolvimento de varejo especializado.

Dinâmica especializada da cadeia de suprimentos

A empresa de Macerich enfrenta poder moderado de barganha com as seguintes características:

• Duração média do contrato: 3-5 anos
• Mecanismos de preços fixos em 68% dos contratos de longo prazo
• Fornecedores alternativos limitados para materiais de desenvolvimento de varejo especializados

Dependência de serviços de arquitetura e engenharia

Os provedores de serviços de arquitetura e engenharia demonstram poder moderado de mercado. As três principais empresas especializadas atendem a aproximadamente 55% dos projetos de desenvolvimento de shopping centers nacionalmente.

Implicações de preços e custo

A volatilidade do custo do material em 2024 varia entre 7-12% em diferentes categorias de construção, impactando a dinâmica da negociação de fornecedores.

• Preços do aço: 8,5% de flutuação ano a ano
• Materiais de concreto: Variabilidade de preço de 9,2%
• Vidro arquitetônico: 11,3% de instabilidade de custo

The Macerich Company (MAC) - As cinco forças de Porter: poder de barganha dos clientes

Dinâmica do mercado de inquilinos de varejo

A partir do quarto trimestre de 2023, Macerich gerencia 47 propriedades em 10 estados, totalizando 18,6 milhões de pés quadrados de espaço de varejo. O portfólio da empresa inclui 52 centros de varejo nos principais mercados dos EUA.

Alavancagem de negociação da cadeia de varejo nacional

Grandes varejistas nacionais como Nordstrom, Target e Macy ocupam espaço significativo nas propriedades de Macerich, representando 35% do total de inquilinos.

• Os 10 principais inquilinos representam 23,4% da receita total de aluguel de base
• Termo médio de arrendamento para redes nacionais: 5-7 anos
• Termo de arrendamento restante médio ponderado: 6,4 anos

Localização e sensibilidade à taxa de aluguel

As propriedades de Macerich estão localizadas em mercados de alta renda, com renda familiar média de US $ 120.500 nas áreas comerciais.

Demanda experimental de varejo

Macerich investiu US $ 200 milhões em propriedades transformadoras para apoiar os conceitos de varejo experimentais, direcionando a geração do milênio e os consumidores da geração Z.

• 60% da nova mistura de inquilinos se concentra no varejo experimental
• Investimentos de integração digital: US $ 45 milhões em 2023
• Projetos de desenvolvimento de uso misto: 7 desenvolvimentos em andamento

The Macerich Company (MAC) - As cinco forças de Porter: rivalidade competitiva

Análise dos concorrentes de mercado

A partir de 2024, o cenário competitivo da Macerich Company envolve os principais players do setor de Trust Investment Trust (REIT):

Métricas de intensidade competitiva

Indicadores de rivalidade competitiva para a Macerich Company em 2024:

• Número de concorrentes diretos no setor de REIT de varejo: 12
• Taxa de concentração de mercado: 65,4%
• Taxas médias de ocupação no cenário competitivo: 88,3%
• Volume anual de aquisição/disposição de propriedades: US $ 3,2 bilhões

Dinâmica de pressão do mercado

Tendências de consolidação do setor

Métricas de consolidação imobiliária de varejo para 2024:

• Total de fusões e aquisições REIT: 17 transações
• Valor total da transação: US $ 6,5 bilhões
• Tamanho médio da transação: US $ 382 milhões
• Taxa de consolidação: 4,2% do valor total de mercado

The Macerich Company (MAC) - As cinco forças de Porter: ameaça de substitutos

Crescente competição de comércio eletrônico desafiando os espaços de varejo tradicionais

As vendas de comércio eletrônico dos EUA atingiram US $ 1,1 trilhão em 2023, representando 14,8% do total de vendas no varejo. A participação de mercado da Amazon no comércio eletrônico foi de 37,6% em 2023. Plataformas de compras on-line como o Shopify reportaram US $ 6,3 bilhões em receita total em 2022.

Crescente popularidade dos desenvolvimentos de uso misto e estilo de vida

O mercado imobiliário de uso misto projetado para atingir US $ 45,6 bilhões até 2025, com um CAGR de 17,2%. Os centros de estilo de vida representaram 12,5% dos novos empreendimentos imobiliários comerciais em 2023.

• Os desenvolvimentos de uso misto aumentaram 22,3% nas áreas metropolitanas
• Investimento médio por projeto de uso misto: US $ 87,4 milhões
• Taxas de ocupação para centros de estilo de vida: 89,6%

Opções alternativas de investimento em imóveis comerciais

Capitalização total de mercado de investimentos imobiliários (REITs): US $ 1,3 trilhão em 2023. Rendimento médio de dividendos REIT: 4,7%. As plataformas de investimento imobiliário on -line levantaram US $ 3,2 bilhões em 2022.

Plataformas de compras digitais e virtuais emergentes

O mercado de plataforma de compras virtual deve atingir US $ 17,8 bilhões até 2025. As experiências de compras de realidade aumentada (AR) cresceram 45,3% em 2023. A plataforma de realidade virtual da Meta registrou US $ 2,1 bilhões em receita de tecnologias relacionadas a metaversas.

• Aplicativo de compras AR Downloads: 62,4 milhões em 2023
• Adoção da tecnologia de sala de montagem virtual: 38,7% entre os principais varejistas
• Plataformas de personalização de produtos on -line: tamanho de mercado de US $ 4,6 bilhões

The Macerich Company (MAC) - As cinco forças de Porter: ameaça de novos participantes

Requisitos de capital em desenvolvimento imobiliário comercial

A empresa de Macerich enfrenta barreiras significativas aos novos participantes por meio de requisitos substanciais de capital:

Complexidade regulatória e de zoneamento

As barreiras regulatórias criam desafios substanciais de entrada:

• O processo de aprovação de zoneamento pode levar de 18 a 36 meses
• Custos estimados legais e de conformidade: US $ 2 milhões - US $ 5 milhões por projeto
• Estudos de impacto ambiental necessários: US $ 250.000 - US $ 750.000

Requisitos iniciais de investimento

Principais métricas de investimento para novos participantes comerciais imobiliários:

Conhecimento de mercado e relacionamentos de inquilinos

Barreiras relacionadas à experiência do mercado:

• Tempo médio para estabelecer Rede de Locatários: 5-7 anos
• Custos típicos de aquisição de inquilinos: US $ 500.000 - US $ 2 milhões
• Investimento de pesquisa de mercado necessário: US $ 250.000 - US $ 750.000

The Macerich Company (MAC) - Porter's Five Forces: Competitive rivalry

The competitive rivalry facing The Macerich Company is high, stemming from direct competition within the Class A retail REIT space. You are competing head-to-head with established giants like Simon Property Group for market share, tenant quality, and investor perception. This rivalry isn't just about rent per square foot; it's a battle for dominance in creating premier, experience-driven retail destinations in the most attractive U.S. markets.

The pressure is evident in the recent financial outcomes. For the third quarter of 2025, The Macerich Company reported a net loss of $\mathbf{(\$87.4) \text{ million}}$, which, while an improvement from the $\mathbf{(\$108.2) \text{ million}}$ loss in the same period last year, still reflects the ongoing operational headwinds and sector pressures you are navigating. Still, the company is fighting back with strong leasing metrics.

Competition for desirable new tenants and the capital needed for redevelopment is fierce. Macerich's success in securing new business is a direct measure of its competitive standing. For instance, in Q3 2025, the company signed leases encompassing $\mathbf{1.5 \text{ million square feet}}$, an $\mathbf{81\%}$ to $\mathbf{87\%}$ increase year-over-year, showing momentum in capturing tenant demand. Furthermore, the $\mathbf{16\text{th}}$ consecutive quarter of positive base rent leasing spreads, coming in at $\mathbf{5.9\%}$ above expiring base rent for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2025, demonstrates pricing power against rivals.

The core of this rivalry centers on asset quality and strategic location. The Macerich Company's portfolio is concentrated in high-barrier-to-entry areas like California, the Pacific Northwest, Phoenix/Scottsdale, and the Metro New York to Washington, D.C. corridor, which are the same prime targets for competitors like Simon Property Group. You have to continuously invest to keep these properties ahead of the curve, which requires access to redevelopment capital. The company's proactive asset management, including Q3 2025 sales of Lakewood Center for $\mathbf{\$332 \text{ million}}$ and Atlas Park for $\mathbf{\$72 \text{ million}}$, helps manage capital structure while focusing on core assets.

Here's a look at how The Macerich Company's operational performance in Q3 2025 stacks up against key competitors on certain metrics:

The rivalry is also fought on the grounds of operational efficiency and portfolio health, which directly impacts your ability to fund future growth and maintain shareholder returns. You need to watch how your peers are managing their balance sheets and NOI growth:

• Portfolio tenant sales per square foot (spaces < 10k sq ft, TTM ended 9/30/2025): $\mathbf{\$867}$.
• Go-Forward Portfolio Centers Net Operating Income (NOI) increase (Y/Y Q3 2025): $\mathbf{1.7\%}$.
• Interest Expenses growth (Y/Y Q3 2025): $\mathbf{27.3\%}$ to $\mathbf{\$72.7 \text{ million}}$.
• Quarterly Dividend Amount: $\mathbf{\$0.17}$ per share.
• Stock Price (as of November 25, 2025): $\mathbf{\$16.52}$.

To compete effectively, The Macerich Company must continue to demonstrate superior asset management, as evidenced by its $\mathbf{39 \text{ million square feet}}$ portfolio across $\mathbf{38 \text{ retail centers}}$. The pressure is on to convert that high-quality physical footprint into consistent, positive net income, especially when competitors like Regency Centers reported FFO per share of $\mathbf{\$1.15}$ in the same period.

The Macerich Company (MAC) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of substitutes

You're looking at the digital shift, and honestly, the numbers show why e-commerce is the primary substitute threat for The Macerich Company's physical assets. As of the second quarter of 2025, U.S. ecommerce accounted for 16.3% of total sales on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to the Commerce Department. That's up from an unadjusted 15.5% in the same period. The Macerich Company's portfolio occupancy as of September 30, 2025, stood at 93.4%, which is a slight dip from 93.7% a year prior, showing the constant pressure from these alternatives. Still, The Macerich Company is seeing strong tenant performance in its best spaces; tenant sales per square foot for spaces less than 10,000 square feet for the trailing twelve months ended September 30, 2025, reached $867, up from $834 year over year. It's a tale of two markets, really.

Here's a quick look at how the digital sales growth compares to The Macerich Company's leasing activity in Q3 2025:

Lifestyle centers and mixed-use developments are The Macerich Company's direct answer to the consumer desire for experiences over just transactions. You see this strategy baked into their development pipeline. For instance, plans are moving forward to re-envision the 25-acre outdoor village at FlatIron Crossing into a new, mixed-use entertainment district integrating multi-family, office, and hotel components. Also, at Green Acres, a transformation is underway that will bring 300,000 square feet of new entertainment, dining, and retail brands to the property. This focus on creating community cornerstones is a direct countermeasure to the convenience of staying home.

The defintely growing trend of adaptive reuse of older malls into non-retail, mixed-use property nationally supports The Macerich Company's strategy, even if their focus is on high-quality centers. Nationally, developers converted nearly 25K apartments from existing buildings in 2024, a 50% jump from 2023. Office conversions made up nearly 24% of those completed units in 2024. This broader market shift validates the capital allocation toward non-traditional uses within prime retail footprints, which The Macerich Company is doing selectively.

Consumers substituting trips with home delivery or BOPIS (buy-online-pick-up-in-store) is captured in the overall e-commerce growth, but The Macerich Company's leasing velocity shows that physical retail still captures significant demand. They signed leases encompassing 1.5 million square feet in Q3 2025 alone, an 81% increase in leased square footage signed year over year on a comparable center basis. That's real, tangible commitment from retailers.

• Leases signed in Q3 2025: 1.5 million square feet.
• Leasing speedometer progress: Currently at 70% toward the year-end 2025 goal.
• Sign Not Open (SNO) pipeline: Expanded to approximately $99 million.
• Positive base rent re-leasing spreads: 16th consecutive quarter.
• Liquidity position (as of Nov. 4, 2025): Around $1 billion.

The Macerich Company (MAC) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of new entrants

You're looking at the barriers preventing a new, well-funded competitor from building a prime, Class A mall from scratch today. Honestly, the hurdles are immense, especially when you consider the capital required just to break ground on a modern facility.

Extremely high capital costs for acquiring and developing prime, large-scale retail sites.

New entrants face construction cost benchmarks that can range from $150 to $250 per square foot for modern retail centers. For a premium lifestyle center, which is what a new competitor would likely attempt to build to compete with The Macerich Company (MAC)'s assets, costs jump to between $420 to $580 per square foot. Considering The Macerich Company (MAC) owns 42.2 million square feet of gross leasable area, the scale of capital needed is staggering. Furthermore, material costs, like steel rebar, hovered around $912 per ton as of February 2025, and construction costs overall were predicted to rise between 5% and 7% in 2025. Redevelopment is the current play, as new ground-up development is often deemed too risky or expensive, with some estimates suggesting new construction costs could exceed $400 per square foot.

Significant regulatory hurdles and lengthy zoning approval processes.

Securing the necessary entitlements for a large-scale project is a multi-month, often multi-year, drain on capital and time. In some Florida jurisdictions, if a development permit requires a public hearing, the final decision deadline extends to 180 days after the application is deemed complete. In major markets like Chicago, large projects still rely on the Planned Development (PD) process for customized zoning. While Los Angeles is streamlining its code, reducing administrative steps from over 120 to approximately 60 in some projects as of mid-2025, the complexity remains market-dependent.

Existing Class A mall locations are essentially irreplaceable in dense, high-income markets.

The Macerich Company (MAC) has strategically concentrated its portfolio in irreplaceable trade areas, including California, the Pacific Northwest, Phoenix/Scottsdale, and the Metro New York to Washington, D.C. corridor. You simply cannot replicate the existing footprint of The Macerich Company (MAC)'s 29 consolidated regional malls and 10 unconsolidated regional malls. This scarcity value is reflected in the high performance of their existing assets; for instance, their go-forward portfolio sales were $905 per square foot at the end of Q3 2025, compared to the overall portfolio average of $849 per square foot over the prior twelve months ending June 2025.

New entrants face difficulty securing anchor tenants without an established portfolio.

The traditional anchor model is changing, but securing a high-traffic draw remains critical, and established landlords have the leverage. New entrants must compete against The Macerich Company (MAC)'s existing leasing momentum; they signed 5.4 million square feet of new and renewal leases year-to-date in 2025, an 86% increase compared to the same period in 2024. A new developer would struggle to offer the same stability, especially when The Macerich Company (MAC)'s leased occupancy stood at 93.4% as of September 30, 2025.

Here's a quick look at the financial scale of the existing portfolio versus the cost to build new, which illustrates the barrier:

The difficulty in entry is compounded by the shift in tenant strategy, meaning a new entrant must not only secure land but also curate a completely new, high-traffic tenant mix, which The Macerich Company (MAC) is actively managing through its existing pipeline:

• The Macerich Company (MAC) Q3 2025 Signed Not Open (SNO) pipeline target was set at $100 million by year-end.
• The Macerich Company (MAC) reported a 7.8% increase in Funds From Operations (FFO) attributable to common stockholders for Q3 2025.
• New store leases signed by The Macerich Company (MAC) in Q1 2025 were expected to produce gross revenue of approximately $80 million at their share over 2024's prior use revenue.
• The Macerich Company (MAC) is targeting $2 billion in mall dispositions, with $1.2 billion closed to date.