Breaking Down Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors

You're looking at Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) and wondering if the off-price momentum is sustainable, especially with macroeconomic headwinds still swirling. The direct takeaway is this: the company's operational improvements have translated into a significant earnings beat and a raised full-year outlook, but you need to watch their comparable store sales (comps) closely in the back half of the year. Management has already raised its full-year adjusted earnings per share (EPS) guidance to a range of $9.19 to $9.59 for Fiscal Year 2025, a strong signal of confidence driven by Q2 Adjusted EPS hitting $1.72, a 39% increase year-over-year. Here's the quick math: their 'Burlington 2.0' strategy is working, helping them deliver a 10% total sales increase to $2.701 billion in the second quarter. Still, with comp growth now expected to moderate to the 1% to 2% range for the full year, and the potential for incremental tariff pressure, the question shifts from if they can grow to how efficiently they can manage inventory and margins while opening approximately 100 net new stores. It's defintely a retailer executing well, but the market expects perfection now.

Revenue Analysis

If you're looking at Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL), the direct takeaway is that their revenue engine is strong, fueled by physical expansion, not a sudden shift in consumer habits. They are a pure-play off-price retailer, meaning their revenue is almost entirely derived from the sale of deeply discounted, branded merchandise across their growing fleet of stores.

For the current fiscal year (FY2025, which ends January 2026), the company is projecting total sales to land between $11.38 billion and $11.58 billion. That's a solid increase, but it's defintely important to know where that growth is coming from. The core of their strategy, the 'Burlington 2.0' playbook, is all about store count, so new locations are the biggest driver.

Near-Term Revenue Growth Drivers

The company is guiding for a total sales increase in the range of 7% to 8% for the full fiscal year 2025. Here's the quick math: roughly two-thirds of that growth is expected to come from new stores, with the rest from existing ones. This is a deliberate, capital-intensive strategy.

• New Store Expansion: Plans call for approximately 100 net new stores to open in FY2025.
• Comparable Store Sales: Expected to increase between 1% and 2% for the year.

For context, the previous fiscal year (ending February 1, 2025) saw annual revenue of $10.63 billion, representing a 9.33% year-over-year growth. So, while the growth rate is slightly moderating, the absolute dollar increase is substantial, moving the midpoint of the current year's guidance to approximately $11.48 billion. You need to watch that comparable store sales number; if it dips below 1%, it signals that the broader retail environment is getting tougher, forcing the company to rely even more heavily on new store capital expenditure.

Contribution of Merchandise Segments

Burlington Stores, Inc. doesn't break out its revenue by region, as it operates primarily in the US, but it does provide a clear picture of its product mix. The primary revenue stream is the sale of merchandise across a broad range of categories. What this breakdown hides is the flexibility of the off-price model; they can quickly shift inventory to whatever is selling best, which is a key advantage over traditional department stores.

Based on the most recent detailed filing (Fiscal 2024 data), the revenue contribution from different product categories looks like this:

The biggest segment, Accessories and shoes, at 27%, shows the strength of non-apparel impulse buys in the off-price format. A minor change in revenue streams is the continued focus on the Home category, which has become a stable 20% of sales, a segment that grew significantly during the pandemic and has held steady as a key traffic driver. You can read more about this in Breaking Down Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Profitability Metrics

You need to know if Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) is just generating sales, or if those sales are actually turning into real profit. The short answer is that BURL is showing strong margin expansion in 2025, with its net profit margin of 4.7% significantly outpacing the Apparel Retail industry average of 2.6%.

The company's profitability is a direct reflection of its off-price model-buying opportunistically and keeping costs lean. For the full fiscal year 2025, BURL reported total revenue of roughly $10.635 billion and a substantial gross profit of $4.61 billion. Here's the quick math: that translates to an annual gross profit margin of approximately 43.35%, which is a strong figure, and definitely above the Apparel Retail industry average of 41.9%.

Looking closer at the second quarter of fiscal 2025, the margin performance was even more impressive. Gross margin expanded by 90 basis points (bps) year-over-year to 43.7%, driven by better merchandise margins and lower freight costs. This margin discipline is crucial in a value-driven sector.

The table below summarizes the key profitability ratios for Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) for fiscal year 2025, comparing them to the broader industry for context.

Operational Efficiency and Margin Trends

The trend in profitability is clearly upward. BURL's annual gross profit of $4.61 billion in 2025 marks an 11.25% increase from 2024, following a 17.35% jump in 2024 from 2023. This isn't just a revenue story; it's a margin story. The full-year 2025 net profit of $503.6 million was a massive 48% increase from the prior year, pushing the net profit margin from 3.5% to 4.7%. That's a defintely strong rebound.

Operational efficiency is the engine behind this margin expansion. The company's 'Burlington 2.0' initiatives are focused on modernized store layouts and enhanced margin control, which have already shown tangible results in boosting sales productivity. They are also strategically managing inventory, which is the lifeblood of off-price retail.

What this estimate hides, however, is the constant tension in the off-price model. While BURL is disciplined, its inventory turnover ratio declined to 4.67 in Q1 2025. Slower inventory velocity ties up capital and can pressure gross margins if not managed aggressively. Plus, management has cited that tariffs on Chinese imports are likely to put incremental pressure on the back half of the year, so sustained margin improvement is not guaranteed.

To see who is betting on BURL's continued success, you can read more here: Exploring Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) Investor Profile: Who's Buying and Why?

• Gross margin is above the industry average.
• Net profit margin is nearly double the industry average.
• Operational initiatives are driving margin expansion.
• Inventory velocity remains a key risk factor.

Debt vs. Equity Structure

Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) leans on a balanced, though debt-heavy, capital structure, strategically using leverage to fuel its aggressive store expansion and manage its financial obligations. The key takeaway is that while the company's debt-to-equity (D/E) ratio is elevated compared to its own history, its strong earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) coverage makes the debt load highly manageable.

As of the most recent data near the end of the 2025 fiscal year, Burlington Stores, Inc.'s total outstanding debt was approximately $2.039 billion. This figure is primarily composed of its Term Loan facility and Convertible Notes. The structure is a mix of long-term strategic financing and shorter-term obligations, which is typical for a growth-focused retailer.

• Term Loan Facility: The largest component, sitting at about $1.727 billion.
• Convertible Notes: Approximately $297 million outstanding.
• Short-Term Liquidity: The company also ended Q2 2025 with strong liquidity of $1.694 billion, including $748 million in unrestricted cash.

The company's Debt-to-Equity (D/E) ratio, which measures a company's financial leverage, stood at about 1.41 as of October 2025. Here's the quick math: total debt of $2.039 billion divided by total shareholder equity of approximately $1.447 billion gives you that 1.41 figure. To be fair, this ratio is on the lower end of its industry peers-it falls in the bottom 25% of the industry, suggesting Burlington Stores, Inc. is less leveraged than many competitors. Still, the ratio has worsened slightly from its 12-month average of 1.34, which is something to defintely watch.

In terms of recent activity, Burlington Stores, Inc. has been proactive in managing its debt profile. In September 2024, the company's subsidiary refinanced its existing debt, securing new Term B-7 loans totaling $1.25 billion. This strategic move extended the maturity date from 2028 out to September 24, 2031, which significantly improves the long-term debt profile and reduces refinancing risk in the near term. S&P Global Ratings assigned a 'BBB-' issue-level rating to this new term loan. The company also had about $155 million in convertible senior notes due in April 2025, which its cash generation was expected to cover.

Burlington Stores, Inc. balances debt financing and equity funding by using debt to support its aggressive growth strategy-specifically, its new store openings-while maintaining a low Net Debt-to-EBITDA (Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization) ratio. As of August 2025, the net debt was only 1.1 times its EBITDA, which is an excellent coverage metric. This shows that while the D/E ratio is high, the company's operating earnings can cover its interest expenses a whopping 20.4 times over, signaling a healthy ability to service its debt. For more on the ownership landscape, see Exploring Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) Investor Profile: Who's Buying and Why?

Here is a snapshot of the core components:

The company's focus is on using its cash flow from operations to fund growth and manage debt, not relying heavily on new equity issuance, which would dilute shareholder value. Finance: Keep tracking the Net Debt-to-EBITDA ratio; anything consistently above 2.5x would signal a shift in risk profile.

Liquidity and Solvency

You need to know if Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) can cover its near-term bills, and the simple answer is yes, but with a typical retailer's reliance on inventory. Their liquidity is structurally tight, which is common for an off-price model, but their strong operating cash flow provides a comfortable cushion.

The core of any liquidity check is the Current Ratio (Current Assets / Current Liabilities) and the Quick Ratio (Current Assets excluding Inventory / Current Liabilities). For the latest data, Burlington Stores, Inc.'s figures show a clear picture of their working capital strategy, which relies heavily on fast inventory turnover.

Here is the quick math on their short-term position, based on data near the end of the 2025 fiscal year:

The 1.23 Current Ratio is actually a positive trend, sitting above their 10-year median of 1.12, indicating an improved ability to cover short-term debt compared to their historical norm. But still, the 0.55 Quick Ratio is defintely a red flag if you only look at the number. This ratio excludes inventory, and for a retailer like Burlington Stores, Inc., inventory is the lifeblood of their business, so it's not a true test of their health.

Working capital trends for Burlington Stores, Inc. are a function of their off-price model, which aims to keep inventory moving fast. They intentionally run a lean working capital structure, meaning they don't hold a lot of excess cash relative to their payables. This is a deliberate strategy to maximize capital efficiency, but it only works if their inventory turnover remains high. If sales slow down, that low Quick Ratio becomes a real problem.

Cash Flow Statement Overview

A look at the cash flow statement for the 2025 fiscal year shows where the true financial strength lies-in their operations. This is the most important part of the analysis.

• Operating Cash Flow: $895.9 million. This is the cash generated from the core business, a very healthy figure.
• Investing Cash Flow: -$882.3 million. This negative flow is dominated by capital expenditures.
• Financing Cash Flow: $56.6 million. This includes debt issuance and payments, plus share repurchases.

The massive negative Investing Cash Flow is due to aggressive capital expenditures, which are projected to be around $950 million for the full fiscal year 2025, net of landlord allowances. They are pouring cash back into the business, primarily for new store openings and supply chain investments, which is a growth-focused move. The fact that their Operating Cash Flow of $895.9 million nearly covers this massive growth spend is a significant strength. They ended the second quarter of Fiscal 2025 with $1.694 billion in total liquidity, including $748 million in unrestricted cash, so they have the firepower. This is a growth company, not a mature one paying dividends, so you want to see them reinvesting heavily. You can learn more about the investors driving this strategy here: Exploring Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) Investor Profile: Who's Buying and Why?

Valuation Analysis

You're looking at Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) and wondering if the market has already priced in its off-price retail success. The direct takeaway is that while the stock trades at a premium to its peers on traditional metrics, the consensus among analysts is still firmly in the 'Buy' camp, suggesting growth expectations justify the higher multiples.

The current valuation multiples for Burlington Stores, Inc. reflect a growth stock, not a deep-value play. As of November 2025, the Trailing Twelve Months (TTM) Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio sits at approximately 32.99x, which is a significant premium compared to the broader retail sector. This tells you investors are willing to pay over $30 for every dollar of the company's past earnings.

Here's the quick math on other key multiples, using the most recent fiscal year data:

• Price-to-Book (P/B): Around 12.04x. This is high, indicating the market values the company's brand, inventory management, and future growth far more than its net assets on the balance sheet.
• Enterprise Value-to-EBITDA (EV/EBITDA): The TTM multiple is roughly 20.23x. To be fair, this is substantially higher than the industry median of about 8.5x, suggesting a rich valuation based on operating cash flow before non-cash charges.

This premium valuation is a clear sign of market confidence in the company's strategic positioning and execution, which you can read more about in Mission Statement, Vision, & Core Values of Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL).

Stock Trend and Analyst View

The stock price trend over the last 12 months has been positive, but not a runaway train. Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) has seen its stock price increase by about 4.15% over the past year, trading recently around the $280.00 mark in mid-November 2025. The 52-week trading range shows a low of $212.92 and a high of $309.00, so the stock is currently sitting near the higher end of its recent range.

Wall Street analysts are defintely bullish, with a consensus rating of 'Buy' or 'Moderate Buy' based on reports from 14 to 18 brokerage firms. The average analyst price target is set between $344.14 and $347.57, implying a potential upside of over 20% from the current price. That's a strong signal, but remember, analysts are often focused on the next 12-18 months of growth.

Dividend Policy and Financial Health Snapshot

If you are looking for income, you should know that Burlington Stores, Inc. does not currently pay a regular cash dividend. Consequently, the dividend yield and payout ratio are both 0.00%. This is a common strategy for growth-focused retailers, as they choose to reinvest nearly all earnings back into the business for store expansion, supply chain improvements, and share repurchases, rather than distributing cash to shareholders.

The company's focus remains on aggressive expansion and driving comparable store sales. For the full fiscal year 2025, the company has guided for Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) in the range of $8.70 to $9.30. This projected growth is the primary driver behind the elevated valuation multiples, as investors are betting on future earnings catching up to the current stock price.

Risk Factors

You need to understand the core risks facing Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) right now, because even with strong execution, the external environment is a headwind. The company is doing a great job managing what it can control, but global trade and the US consumer's budget remain the biggest near-term threats. Simply put, macro risks are the main game.

The primary external risk is the ongoing trade volatility, specifically the impact of tariffs. Management's guidance for fiscal year 2025 assumes tariff rates remain at 30% for goods sourced from China and 10% for other countries. This trade friction, coupled with volatile freight costs, directly pressures the cost of goods sold. Plus, their core customer base is highly sensitive to the macroeconomic slowdown and persistent inflation, which directly impacts their discretionary income. If inflation stays sticky, that flat to 2% comparable store sales growth (Comp Sales) target for 2025 gets a lot harder to hit.

On the operational and financial side, a key strategic risk is the reliance on new store growth to drive the top line. The company plans to open approximately 100 net new stores in 2025, which is a major capital commitment, with CapEx budgeted at about $950 million for the year. While total sales growth is guided to be strong at 6% to 8%, the flat comparable store sales seen in Q1 2025 suggest the existing store base is struggling to gain traction, and they face intense competition from off-price rivals like The TJX Companies, Inc. and Ross Stores, Inc.

Here's the quick math on their financial health limits:

• Total Debt (Q1 2025): $1.652 billion
• Liquidity (Q1 2025): $1.119 billion

To be fair, the company's liquidity position is solid, but the debt load is something to keep an eye on, especially with such high capital expenditures planned. The full-year adjusted EPS guidance was recently raised to a range of $9.19 to $9.59, which shows strong confidence in their ability to manage margins, but a miss on Comp Sales would quickly erode that. That's the tightrope walk they're on.

The good news is that Burlington Stores, Inc. has clear mitigation strategies, primarily through its 'Burlington 2.0' initiatives. Their Merchandising 2.0 strategy is defintely focused on agility, allowing them to quickly shift purchasing away from tariff-exposed categories. They are also managing expenses aggressively to achieve the guided flat to 30 basis points of Adjusted EBIT margin expansion. The most visible mitigation is their use of reserve inventory, which acts as a buffer against supply chain shocks and allows opportunistic buying. By the end of Q2 2025, reserve inventory had grown to 50% of total inventory, up from 41% a year prior.

The table below summarizes the key risks and the company's direct response:

If you want to dig deeper into the company's performance metrics, you can find more detail in Breaking Down Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) Financial Health: Key Insights for Investors.

Growth Opportunities

You're looking for a clear path forward for Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL), and the story is simple: aggressive expansion and operational efficiency are driving their growth, not just a booming economy. The company is defintely poised to capture more market share, especially as value-conscious shoppers trade down from full-price retail.

For fiscal year 2025, the financial outlook is solid. Burlington Stores, Inc. has raised its full-year guidance, projecting total sales to increase by 7% to 8%, putting revenue in the range of $11.38 billion to $11.58 billion. That's a strong number. The company also expects its Adjusted Earnings Per Share (EPS) to land between $9.19 and $9.59, compared to $8.35 last year, showing real bottom-line improvement.

Key Growth Drivers: Store Expansion and Real Estate Acumen

The core of the growth strategy is a massive store footprint expansion. This isn't just organic growth; it's a calculated move to capitalize on the retail shakeout. Here's the quick math: Burlington Stores, Inc. plans to open 100 net new stores in 2025, which is a nearly 10% increase in its store count. They aim for 500 new stores over the next four years, with a long-term goal to push past 2,000 total locations nationally.

• Open 100 net new stores in 2025.
• Acquired leases for 45 former Jo-Ann stores.
• Purchased an 889,445-square-foot distribution center for $257 million.

Plus, they're getting smarter with real estate. They are acquiring prime locations from bankrupt chains like Jo-Ann, Kmart, and Bed Bath & Beyond. This strategy allows them to secure excellent sites at favorable terms. They are also testing smaller-format stores-sometimes up to 80% smaller than older locations-to squeeze into denser, higher-traffic urban and suburban markets.

Operational Edge: The Burlington 2.0 Strategy

The company's internal transformation, dubbed 'Burlington 2.0,' is the engine driving margin expansion. This isn't some vague corporate jargon; it's a tangible shift in how they manage inventory and customer experience. The goal is to make the 'treasure hunt' experience better and more profitable.

The initiative focuses on several key areas:

• Merchandising 2.0: Using new systems to give buyers more flexibility and control, which improves merchandise margins.
• Store Experience 2.0: Modernized, open store layouts with organized aisles and better signage. This is already halfway complete across their 1,115 locations.
• Product Pivot: Outerwear is now less than 5% of sales, as the focus has shifted to high-demand, year-round categories like home goods, beauty, and casual apparel.

These operational efficiencies are critical. They help translate strong demand into higher profitability, which is why the full-year comparable store sales are forecasted to increase by 1% to 2% for FY25. You can read more about the institutional interest in this model here: Exploring Burlington Stores, Inc. (BURL) Investor Profile: Who's Buying and Why?

Competitive Advantages and Near-Term Risk Mapping

Burlington Stores, Inc.'s primary competitive advantage is its off-price model, which is fundamentally resilient. When the economy slows and wallets tighten, off-price retailers thrive because consumers actively seek value. Its disciplined inventory management and ability to quickly turn over merchandise-the 'treasure hunt' model-keeps customers coming back frequently.

However, the near-term risk remains execution. As they aggressively open 100 new stores, integrating those locations and scaling the 'Burlington 2.0' initiatives across the entire chain is a massive undertaking. If onboarding takes 14+ days, churn risk rises. What this estimate hides is the potential for initial margin pressure from the costs associated with these new store openings and the integration of acquired real estate. Still, the strategic investments, like the $257 million distribution center purchase, show a commitment to controlling the supply chain, which is the long-term key to maintaining their cost advantage.