Macy's, Inc. (M): 5 forças Análise [Jan-2025 Atualizada]

No cenário dinâmico de varejo de 2024, a Macy's, Inc. enfrenta uma complexa rede de forças competitivas que desafiam sua posição de mercado e crescimento estratégico. Desde a intrincada dança dos relacionamentos de fornecedores até a pressão incansável dos concorrentes on -line, essa análise descobre os fatores externos críticos que moldam o ambiente competitivo da gigante da loja de departamentos. Ao dissecar a estrutura das cinco forças de Michael Porter, revelaremos os desafios e oportunidades diferenciados que definem o campo de batalha estratégico de Macy no ecossistema de varejo em rápida evolução de hoje.

Macy's, Inc. (M) - As cinco forças de Porter: poder de barganha dos fornecedores

Número limitado de principais fabricantes de roupas e artigos domésticos

Em 2024, a Macy trabalha com aproximadamente 600 fornecedores ativos em várias categorias de produtos. Os 10 principais fornecedores representam 35% da compra total de mercadorias da Macy.

Dependência de mercadorias de marca dos principais fornecedores

A Macy depende muito de mercadorias de marca, com 65% de seu portfólio de produtos compreendendo itens de marca dos principais fornecedores.

• Os principais fornecedores de marca incluem:
  • Ralph Lauren: 8% da mercadoria da marca
  • Calvin Klein: 7% das mercadorias da marca
  • Michael Kors: 6% das mercadorias da marca

Potencial de consolidação de fornecedores no setor de varejo

A cadeia de suprimentos de varejo experimentou consolidação significativa, com uma redução de 22% em fornecedores únicos entre 2020-2023.

Alavancagem moderada de fornecedores devido ao grande volume de compra de Macy

A compra anual de mercadorias da Macy em 2023 foi de US $ 19,3 bilhões, o que fornece poder de negociação substancial contra fornecedores individuais.

Macy's, Inc. (M) - As cinco forças de Porter: poder de barganha dos clientes

Alta sensibilidade ao preço entre compradores de lojas de departamento

No quarto trimestre 2023, a Macy relatou o valor médio de transação de US $ 77,43, refletindo a consciência dos preços do cliente. Os compradores de lojas de departamento demonstraram 38,6% de sensibilidade ao preço nas decisões de compra. A penetração de desconto atingiu 47,2% do volume total de vendas.

Recursos de compras de comparação online

As plataformas de compras de comparação digital aumentaram o poder de negociação do cliente. 62,3% dos clientes da Macy usam sites de comparação de preços antes de comprar. O tráfego de compras móveis representou 72,4% do tráfego digital total em 2023.

• 62,3% usam sites de comparação de preços
• 72,4% de tráfego de compras móveis
• As vendas on -line representam 35,6% da receita total

Programas de fidelidade para reduzir a troca de clientes

O programa Star Rewards de Macy inclui 51,2 milhões de membros ativos. Os membros do programa geram 63,7% da receita total da empresa. O membro médio do programa de fidelidade gasta US $ 324 anualmente em comparação com US $ 186 para não-membros.

Diversificados dados demográficos de clientes

Os segmentos de clientes revelam preferências de preço variadas. A geração do milênio representa 28,6% da base de clientes da Macy com 42,1% de preferência de compra digital. A geração Z compreende 19,4% dos clientes com maior sensibilidade ao preço em 52,3%.

• Millennials: 28,6% da base de clientes
• Gen Z: 19,4% da base de clientes
• Baby Boomers: 34,2% da base de clientes

Macy's, Inc. (M) - As cinco forças de Porter: rivalidade competitiva

Concorrência intensa de lojas de departamento

A Nordstrom registrou US $ 15,1 bilhões em receita para 2023. A Kohl's Corporation gerou US $ 19,1 bilhões em receita anual para o mesmo período. O cenário competitivo mostra uma pressão significativa no mercado.

Pressão de varejo on -line

As vendas no varejo da Amazon atingiram US $ 386,1 bilhões em 2022, representando uma pressão competitiva significativa para os varejistas tradicionais.

• Participação de mercado de comércio eletrônico da Amazon: 37,8%
• Taxa de crescimento de varejo on -line: 10,4% anualmente
• Porcentagem de vendas digitais para Macy's: 35,7%

Declínio do mercado de lojas de departamento

A participação de mercado da loja de departamento tradicional caiu de 8,7% em 2018 para 5,2% em 2023.

Estratégias promocionais

Macy's, Inc. (M) - As cinco forças de Porter: ameaça de substitutos

Plataformas de comércio eletrônico que oferecem faixas de produtos semelhantes

As vendas de vestuário e acessórios da Amazon atingiram US $ 31,4 bilhões em 2022. Os mercados on-line como o Walmart.com geraram US $ 56,1 bilhões em receita de comércio eletrônico em 2022. Nordstrom.com registrou US $ 3,6 bilhões em vendas digitais para o mesmo período.

Varejistas de moda rápida que fornecem alternativas de baixo custo

A H&M gerou US $ 22,6 bilhões em receita global para 2022. A empresa controladora da Zara Inditex registrou € 32,6 bilhões em vendas. O Forever 21 gerou aproximadamente US $ 700 milhões em receita anual.

• Penetração de mercado da H&M: 12,4% no varejo de roupas dos EUA
• Crescimento das vendas digitais da Zara: 27% em 2022
• Forever 21 Vendas on -line: 35% da receita total

Lojas especializadas direcionando categorias de produtos específicas

A Sephora registrou US $ 5,3 bilhões em receita dos EUA em 2022. Os produtos esportivos da Dick geraram US $ 12,7 bilhões em vendas anuais. A Ulta Beauty alcançou US $ 8,6 bilhões em receita total.

Crescente preferência do consumidor por experiências de compras on -line

As vendas de comércio eletrônico dos EUA atingiram US $ 870,8 bilhões em 2022, representando 14,8% do total de vendas no varejo. O comércio móvel representou 43,4% da receita total de comércio eletrônico.

• Penetração de compras on -line: 79% dos consumidores dos EUA
• Valor médio de compra on -line: $ 147,23
• Taxa de conversão de compras móveis: 3,2%

Macy's, Inc. (M) - As cinco forças de Porter: ameaça de novos participantes

Altos requisitos de capital inicial para infraestrutura de varejo

As despesas totais estimadas em capital de Macy de US $ 750 milhões em 2023. Os custos de configuração da loja de varejo variam entre US $ 250.000 e US $ 1,5 milhão por local. O investimento inicial em inventário normalmente requer US $ 500.000 a US $ 2 milhões.

Barreiras de reconhecimento de marca estabelecidas

O valor da marca da Macy estimado em US $ 5,4 bilhões em 2023. Custo de aquisição de clientes para novos participantes de varejo em média de US $ 50 a US $ 150 por cliente.

• As métricas de fidelidade à marca mostram que 60% dos consumidores preferem varejistas estabelecidos
• Investimento de marketing necessário para competir: US $ 1-3 milhões anualmente

Cadeia de suprimentos complexos e desafios de rede de distribuição

A infraestrutura da cadeia de suprimentos da Macy abrange mais de 500 lojas, 18 centros de distribuição. Despesas de logística anuais aproximadamente US $ 1,2 bilhão.

Aumento das barreiras de entrada de comércio digital

O investimento em tecnologia de comércio eletrônico para novos participantes varia de US $ 500.000 a US $ 5 milhões. As vendas digitais de Macy atingiram US $ 8,8 bilhões em 2022.

• Custos de desenvolvimento da plataforma digital: US $ 750.000 - US $ 2,5 milhões
• Investimento de infraestrutura de segurança cibernética: US $ 250.000 - US $ 1 milhão

Consolidação e saturação de mercado no setor de varejo

Taxa de concentração do mercado de lojas de departamentos dos EUA em 75%. Os 4 principais varejistas controlam aproximadamente US $ 120 bilhões em receita anual.

Macy's, Inc. (M) - Porter's Five Forces: Competitive rivalry

Macy's, Inc. operates within a highly contested retail landscape, facing pressure from department stores like Nordstrom, mass merchants such as Target, and the off-price segment represented by T.J. Maxx.

The Fiscal Year 2025 net sales forecast for Macy's, Inc. is set in the range of $21.15 billion to $21.45 billion, reflecting the ongoing market contest.

Macy's, Inc. is executing a significant footprint reduction as part of its fight for efficiency, planning to close approximately 150 underperforming stores by the end of fiscal 2026.

The intensity of rivalry is evident in the company's strategic shifts, detailed below:

• Last year, Macy's, Inc. shuttered 50 locations.
• In 2025, the company is planning to close 66 stores.
• The goal is to maintain a fleet of 350+ profitable locations.
• The company is investing in its luxury divisions, Bloomingdale's and Bluemercury.

The competitive environment demands aggressive investment in digital capabilities, with Macy's, Inc. projecting total web sales for 2025 to reach $7.21 billion.

The company's performance in the second quarter of 2025 showed mixed results across its portfolio amid this rivalry:

Macy's, Inc. is actively deploying technology to counter competitive threats, focusing on AI for personalization and operational improvements.

The strategic response to competitive pressure includes a focus on core store revitalization and digital integration:

• Macy's, Inc. ranks No. 17 in Digital Commerce 360's Top 2000 Database.
• The company is embracing the power of AI and generative AI to take cost out of the network.
• Selling, general and administrative expenses declined by $29 million in Q2 2025 due to closed locations and cost-saving measures.
• The company reported $829 million in cash and cash equivalents at the end of Q2 2025.
• Total debt stood at $2.6 billion as of the end of Q2 2025.

The FY 2025 adjusted diluted earnings per share guidance is set between $1.70 and $2.05.

Macy's, Inc. (M) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of substitutes

Off-price retailers present a clear and present danger to Macy's, Inc.'s core business. This segment is capturing market share aggressively, driven by consumers prioritizing value amid persistent economic pressures. In the first quarter of 2025, off-price inventory rose 13% year-over-year, starkly contrasting with the 1% inventory increase reported at department stores. Analysts project off-price sales to rise 6% in the second quarter of 2025, while department store sales are expected to fall 6% for the same period. On a rolling four-quarter basis as of Q1 2025, the off-price segment's share of total sales expanded by 210 basis points to reach 66.6%. The entire Off-Price Retail Market is estimated to be valued at USD 372.46 Bn in 2025, with apparel and footwear alone contributing an expected 37.2% share of that total. For context, TJX Companies reported a 4% comparable store sales change, while Burlington Stores reported 1% growth in Q3 2025.

Direct-to-consumer (DTC) brands continue to bypass the traditional department store distribution network entirely. These digitally native and established brands are capturing significant e-commerce spend. Established DTC brands are projected to generate $187 billion in e-commerce sales in 2025, contributing to a U.S. DTC e-commerce total expected to reach $212.9 billion in 2025. To be fair, the pure-play DTC model is evolving; wholesale distribution growth was poised to grow 51% in 2024, accounting for 60% of some brands' sales, compared to only 11% growth expected from DTC brands' own stores. Still, the direct relationship allows these brands to own the customer interaction and data stream, a capability Macy's, Inc. must counter.

The shift toward access over ownership is fueling the growth of online resale and rental platforms, offering a cost-effective, trend-driven alternative, especially for apparel. The Online Clothing Rental Market size was valued at approximately USD 2.6 billion in 2025. This market is projected to expand at a Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) of 9.5% through 2035. In 2024, women accounted for 65.73% of the market share, indicating a strong pull in the key demographic for department stores. This segment allows consumers to cycle through fashion without the commitment of purchase, directly substituting for the seasonal wardrobe refresh that department stores rely upon.

Mass merchants like Walmart and Target compete by offering a wider, more convenient, one-stop product assortment that includes apparel. Walmart, in particular, is proving resilient, with Walmart U.S. comparable sales advancing 4.5% in Q3 2025, and the company raising its full-year sales guidance to between 4.8% and 5.1% growth. Walmart's Q3 U.S. sales reached $120.7 billion. Conversely, Target faced headwinds, reporting a 2.7% drop in comparable sales for Q3 2025, with its in-store comparable sales falling 5.7% in Q1 2025. While Target's digital sales showed a 4.7% increase, it was insufficient to offset the in-store decline. This dynamic shows that consumers are consolidating purchases at value leaders like Walmart, while pulling back on discretionary categories like apparel at mid-tier retailers like Target, a pressure Macy's, Inc. also feels.

Here is a quick look at the scale of these substitute markets as of 2025 data points:

The competitive pressure is multifaceted. You see off-price retailers gaining share through superior inventory flow, DTC brands capturing brand loyalty online, rental platforms offering a low-commitment fashion cycle, and mass merchants leveraging scale and convenience for broad-based shopping trips.

• Off-price share of sales expanded 210 basis points YoY in Q1 2025.
• Wholesale distribution growth was poised to grow 51% in 2024.
• Online rental market CAGR projected at 9.5% through 2035.
• Walmart raised full-year sales guidance to 4.8% to 5.1% growth.
• Macy's Q3 2024 owned basis comparable sales were down 2.4%.

Finance: draft 13-week cash view by Friday.

Macy's, Inc. (M) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of new entrants

The threat of new entrants for Macy's, Inc. is segmented by the required scale of entry. Establishing a comparable physical footprint requires massive upfront investment, creating a high barrier for traditional department store rivals.

High capital requirements for physical retail infrastructure and prime real estate form a significant barrier.

The sheer scale of Macy's, Inc.'s existing real estate portfolio represents a massive sunk cost that new entrants must match or surpass to achieve similar market presence. Activist investors estimate Macy's real estate portfolio, which includes stores and distribution centers, to be worth as much as US$9 billion as of late 2024/early 2025 discussions. Further analysis suggests the entire portfolio value could range between $7.9 billion and $10.5 billion. Consider the flagship location in Herald Square alone, which is valued between $1 billion and $3 billion, with some sources pegging it near $4 billion. To put this in perspective, as of August 2025, Macy's market capitalization was $3.6 billion, meaning the real estate value alone significantly exceeds the company's equity valuation. Furthermore, Macy's is actively managing this asset base, projecting to generate $275 million from retail property sales in 2025, while simultaneously planning capital reinvestment between $600 million and $700 million to support renovations at 350 go-forward locations.

Established brand recognition since 1858 and complex supply chain logistics are hard to replicate.

Macy's, Inc. benefits from decades of established cultural relevance. The Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade, for instance, is an investment that yields measurable commercial returns, correlating with a 15 to 20 percent uptick in same-store sales during peak holiday weeks, despite an estimated outlay of $13 million for the event in 2025. On the operational side, the complexity of the logistics network is a barrier. Macy's, Inc. is working to streamline this, targeting annual run-rate cost savings of some $235 million by 2026 through supply chain efforts. Replicating a network that supports operations across hundreds of physical locations and a growing digital presence, while achieving these targeted efficiencies, is a multi-year, capital-intensive endeavor for any new entrant.

Digital-only retail models face lower entry barriers, requiring strong niche focus and marketing.

While the physical barrier is high, digital-only entrants bypass the need for massive real estate capital. These entrants must, however, immediately contend with Macy's, Inc.'s established digital footprint and customer base. Macy's, Inc. is actively expanding its digital reach through formats like Macy's Marketplace. New entrants must secure significant marketing spend to cut through the noise, especially given Macy's, Inc.'s ability to drive traffic through events like the Parade. The company's strategy includes opening 30 new small-format Macy's stores by fall 2025, indicating a focus on lower-cost physical engagement where digital players might also target expansion.

New entrants must compete immediately against Macy's established loyalty program.

Macy's, Inc.'s Star Rewards program locks in customer spending through a tiered rewards structure. New entrants face the immediate challenge of matching or exceeding the perceived value of earning Star Money, where 1,000 points converts to $10 in rewards. The structure immediately incentivizes higher spending through credit card usage, as Platinum members earn 5 points per $1 spent, while Bronze members earn 1 point per $1 spent.

Here is a breakdown of the Star Rewards earning structure:

During peak promotional periods, the value proposition intensifies; for example, an offer of $20 Star Money for every $100 spent effectively represents a 20% return on that purchase amount. Any new competitor must offer a compelling, immediate, and easily understood incentive to draw customers away from this established ecosystem.