Telus Corporation (TU): 5 forças Análise [Jan-2025 Atualizada]

No mundo dinâmico das telecomunicações canadenses, a Telus Corporation navega em uma paisagem complexa moldada pelas cinco forças de Michael Porter. Desde lutar contra concorrentes ferozes como Rogers e Bell até o gerenciamento das demandas em evolução dos clientes que conhecem a tecnologia, a Telus deve manobrar estrategicamente por meio de desafios de energia do fornecedor, preferências do cliente, interrupções tecnológicas e barreiras de entrada de mercado. Essa análise revela a intrincada dinâmica competitiva que define o posicionamento estratégico da Telus em um ecossistema de telecomunicações cada vez mais competitivo e orientado pela tecnologia.

TELUS CORPORATION (TU) - As cinco forças de Porter: poder de barganha dos fornecedores

Fabricantes de equipamentos de rede

Telus conta com um número limitado de fornecedores de equipamentos de rede:

Requisitos de investimento de capital

Requisitos de capital de infraestrutura de rede para Telus:

• Investimento de infraestrutura de rede 5G: US $ 1,3 bilhão em 2023
• Despesas totais de equipamentos de rede: US $ 687 milhões
• Custos anuais de atualização da infraestrutura de tecnologia: US $ 412 milhões

Métricas de concentração de fornecedores

TELUS CORPORATION (TU) - As cinco forças de Porter: poder de barganha dos clientes

Mercado de telecomunicações canadenses altamente competitivo

A partir do quarto trimestre de 2023, o mercado de telecomunicações canadenses consiste em três principais players: Telus, Rogers e Bell, com uma quebra de participação de mercado da seguinte forma:

Crescente demanda do consumidor por planos móveis e internet flexíveis

As preferências do consumidor em 2023 indicam tendências significativas:

• 87% dos consumidores canadenses preferem planos móveis com dados ilimitados
• 62% dos clientes mudam de provedores em 18 meses
• A taxa de troca de plano móvel aumentou 14,3% em 2023

Aumentando a sensibilidade dos preços entre os clientes

Métricas de sensibilidade a preços para serviços de telecomunicações no Canadá:

Múltiplas opções de substituição em serviços de telecomunicações

Opções de substituição disponíveis para os consumidores canadenses:

• Serviços VoIP: 42% de penetração no mercado
• Operadores de rede virtual móvel (MVNOs): 7,3% de participação de mercado
• Planos móveis pré -pagos: 16,5% do total de assinaturas móveis

TELUS CORPORATION (TU) - As cinco forças de Porter: rivalidade competitiva

Concorrência de mercado Overview

A partir do quarto trimestre de 2023, o mercado de telecomunicações canadenses é dominado por três principais players: Telus, Rogers e Bell.

Dinâmica de preços

Preços médios do plano móvel mensal no Canadá para 2024:

• Planos de dados ilimitados: US $ 75- $ 95
• Planos familiares compartilhados: $ 120- $ 150
• Planos pré-pagos: US $ 40- $ 60

Investimento de infraestrutura

Investimento de infraestrutura de rede Telus para 2023-2024:

Métricas de atendimento ao cliente

Telus Classificações de satisfação do cliente para 2023:

• Pontuação do promotor líquido: 68
• Taxa de retenção de clientes: 87,5%
• Tempo médio de resolução: 24 horas

TELUS CORPORATION (TU) - As cinco forças de Porter: ameaça de substitutos

Crescente popularidade das plataformas de comunicação exageradas

O Whatsapp reportou 2 bilhões de usuários ativos mensais globalmente em 2023. O Zoom Video Communications atingiu US $ 4,4 bilhões em receita em 2022. O Skype teve 300 milhões de usuários ativos em 2023.

Aumentando a adoção de serviços de comunicação baseados na Internet

O mercado global de comunicação na Internet projetou atingir US $ 294,9 bilhões até 2027. O mercado de VoIP móvel deve crescer a 21,5% da CAGR entre 2022-2030.

• Tamanho do mercado do WebRTC estimado em US $ 2,7 bilhões em 2022
• Mercado global de telefonia na Internet avaliada em US $ 102,3 bilhões em 2023
• Mercado da plataforma de comunicação em nuvem projetada para atingir US $ 36,45 bilhões até 2026

Emergência de operadores de rede virtual móvel

O MVNO Market avaliado em US $ 73,7 bilhões em 2022. Projetado para atingir US $ 142,8 bilhões até 2030 com 20,3% CAGR.

Crescer soluções de conectividade alternativa

O mercado global de Wi-Fi espera atingir US $ 72,2 bilhões até 2028. O mercado de satélite da Internet projetado para crescer para US $ 18,3 bilhões até 2027.

• 5G Mercado de acesso sem fio fixo estimado em US $ 4,7 bilhões em 2022
• Os assinantes da Internet por satélite que se espera que atinjam 3,1 milhões até 2024
• Mercado Público Global de Wi-Fi Crescendo a 14,2% CAGR

TELUS CORPORATION (TU) - As cinco forças de Porter: ameaça de novos participantes

Altos requisitos de capital para infraestrutura de rede

A Telus investiu US $ 1,7 bilhão em despesas de capital em 2022 para desenvolvimento de infraestrutura de rede. A implantação de rede 5G custa aproximadamente US $ 3,5 milhões por quilômetro quadrado em áreas urbanas.

Barreiras regulatórias no setor de telecomunicações canadenses

A Comissão Canadense de Radiotelevisão e Telecomunicações (CRTC) impõe rigorosas regulamentos de entrada de mercado.

• As taxas de entrada de leilão de espectro variam de US $ 50 milhões a US $ 500 milhões
• Requisitos de propriedade canadense obrigatórios de 80% para fornecedores de telecomunicações
• Custos de conformidade estimados em US $ 12,3 milhões anualmente para novos participantes

Custos significativos de licenciamento de espectro

O leilão do espectro de 2021 gerou US $ 8,9 bilhões em receitas totais de licenciamento para o governo canadense.

Lealdade à marca estabelecida de provedores de telecomunicações em exercício

A Telus mantém uma participação de mercado de 33,5% nas telecomunicações sem fio canadense com 9,8 milhões de assinantes móveis a partir do quarto trimestre 2022.

• Taxa de retenção de clientes: 87,2%
• Receita média por usuário (ARPU): US $ 68,43 por mês
• Índice de fidelidade da marca: 4,2 de 5

TELUS Corporation (TU) - Porter's Five Forces: Competitive rivalry

You're looking at a market where the established players fight tooth and nail for every subscriber. Honestly, the competitive rivalry in core Canadian telecom is, and remains, extremely high. Rogers Communications Inc., BCE Inc., and TELUS Corporation collectively held roughly 90% of wireless revenue as of 2024. Even when you look at the top four providers including Quebecor Group, they still accounted for 85.6% of total telecommunications service revenues in 2023.

This intensity shows up directly in your wallet, or rather, the company's average revenue per user (ARPU). For instance, TELUS's mobile phone ARPU in the first quarter of 2025 settled at $57.13. That was a drop of $2.18, or 3.7 per cent, compared to the year prior. The reason? Customers are signing up for base rate plans due to what the CEO called "more intense marketing and promotional price competition."

The CEO, Darren Entwistle, has been quite vocal about this dynamic. He decried a culture of price-matching in the industry, questioning why TELUS must always match prices in a 'race to the bottom.' The aggressive pricing from the fourth national carrier, Quebecor-owned Freedom Mobile, catalyzed an 18.2% national average decline in wireless tariffs during 2023 alone, forcing incumbents to shift focus. Still, TELUS is signaling a strategic pivot away from pure price wars.

Here's the quick math on how TELUS is balancing growth against profitability in this environment. The company is targeting profitable growth over market share at any cost, as evidenced by its guidance.

This focus on margin-accretive growth is key, especially as TELUS Health continues to scale rapidly. The rivalry isn't just about the core connectivity business anymore. TELUS Health is executing its global growth strategy, delivering Operating Revenue growth of 18 per cent and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 24 per cent in the third quarter of 2025. That's a clear example of the rivalry extending into non-traditional, high-growth areas like health services.

The competitive pressures in the core business are being managed through operational discipline and synergy realization. For example, TELUS achieved $355 million in combined annualized synergies following the LifeWorks acquisition, and they remain on track to hit the $427 million goal by the end of 2025. This internal efficiency helps offset external pricing pressure.

Key competitive dynamics you need to watch:

• Wireless tariff pressure is easing slightly, with Q3 2025 Mobility network revenue growth described as stable.
• The push for premium service differentiation over price parity is the stated strategic goal.
• TELUS Health's 24 per cent Adjusted EBITDA growth in Q3 2025 shows success in non-core segments.
• The top three incumbents control about 90% of wireless revenue, showing high barriers to entry.
• The company is committed to its dividend growth program, targeting 3 to 8 per cent annual growth through 2028.

Finance: model the impact of achieving the low end (3%) versus the high end (5%) of the 2025 TTech Adjusted EBITDA target on the Q4 2025 dividend coverage ratio by next Tuesday.

TELUS Corporation (TU) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of substitutes

The threat of substitutes for TELUS Corporation remains a significant pressure point, primarily driven by Over-The-Top (OTT) services that directly compete with traditional communication and entertainment offerings. This threat is best characterized as moderate and rising, especially in the video and voice segments.

Internet-based communication apps are actively substituting traditional revenue streams like SMS and voice calls. The persistent decline in fixed voice revenue is a clear indicator of this substitution effect. For instance, in the third quarter of 2025, fixed voice services revenues at TELUS Corporation fell by $12 million, representing a 7 per cent decrease year-over-year. This follows a similar trend seen in the fourth quarter of 2024, where fixed voice services revenues decreased by $15 million, or 8.0 per cent.

The television segment faces a similar substitution challenge. Lower TV revenue per customer is directly linked to customers selecting smaller TV combination packages and the broader technological substitution away from traditional cable/satellite. This trend is evident in the broader Canadian market where Canadian cable, satellite and Telco TV subscription revenue declined by five per cent to $6.51 billion in 2024. Conversely, the substitute, Canadian OTT subscription revenue, grew 15 per cent to reach $4.2 billion in 2024 and is forecast to leap another 15 per cent to $4.85 billion in 2025.

You can see the direct impact of this substitution on traditional services here:

TELUS Corporation actively mitigates this threat by bundling services and investing heavily in its own digital segments. The growth in TELUS Digital operating revenues shows this strategic pivot in action. For example, in the third quarter of 2025, TELUS Digital operating revenues increased by $33 million, or 5 per cent. This growth was also seen in the second quarter of 2025, with revenues up $56 million or 8 per cent. Furthermore, the adoption of TELUS Digital's solutions across TTech operations is cited as a factor contributing to competitive benefits and TTech Adjusted EBITDA growth.

The ongoing shift means that the traditional fixed voice business is shrinking, but the company is finding growth in data and digital:

• TELUS Digital operating revenues increased by $27 million or 4 per cent in Q1 2025.
• TELUS Digital operating revenues increased by $56 million or 8 per cent in Q2 2025.
• TELUS Digital operating revenues increased by $33 million or 5 per cent in Q3 2025.
• The company's focus on bundling helps preserve the average revenue per account despite OTT pressures.
• The company is leveraging its PureFibre network and leading portfolio of bundled services to drive internet customer additions.

TELUS Corporation (TU) - Porter's Five Forces: Threat of new entrants

You're assessing the competitive landscape for TELUS Corporation, and the threat of new entrants is definitely low. Honestly, the sheer scale of investment required to even attempt to compete nationally acts as a massive moat around the incumbents.

The barrier to entry is primarily rooted in the massive capital requirements for building out a national, modern telecommunications network. Consider TELUS Corporation's own guidance: their 2025 capital expenditure target is set at approximately $2.5 billion, excluding real estate initiatives. That's the level of annual spending required just for an established player to maintain and upgrade its network; a new entrant would need to match or exceed this just to get to parity, which is a staggering initial hurdle.

This capital intensity is further underscored by the historical spending on necessary radio assets. To be fair, a new entrant doesn't just need to build towers; they need the airwaves to transmit signals. The incumbents have already spent fortunes securing this scarce resource.

Wireless network operators in Canada have invested nearly $29 billion in acquiring spectrum licenses through government-held auctions from 1999 through 2024. This historical investment alone represents sunk costs that a new entrant would have to match or exceed in future auctions, plus the annual license fees.

Also, significant regulatory hurdles create a high barrier. The need to acquire scarce wireless spectrum licenses is a major roadblock. While the cost of acquiring the license is the upfront auction price, the ongoing cost of use is also regulated. Innovation, Science and Economic Development Canada (ISED) announced a new fee structure in March 2025, set to take effect for the 2026-27 fiscal year, which is designed to make national carriers like TELUS Corporation pay a greater share of the total industry fees. This regulatory environment, which prices spectrum based on market value rather than just cost recovery, makes entry expensive and predictable only through government policy changes.

Entrants struggle against the incumbents' fully built-out infrastructure. TELUS Corporation, for example, has been aggressively deploying its network assets. By May 2024, the company had already connected more than 1.9 million homes and businesses in British Columbia with TELUS PureFibre. Furthermore, TELUS Corporation has a total national commitment of $73 billion across Canada through 2028 for network development.

You can see the scale of the incumbent advantage here:

• TELUS Corporation's commitment to deploy $73 billion across Canada through 2028.
• The company's 2025 CapEx target is $2.5 billion.
• The total historical spectrum auction spend by incumbents is nearly $29 billion since 1999.
• TELUS Corporation is continuing to expand its 5G network using advanced technology like ORAN.

A new competitor faces the prospect of building a competing national fibre and 5G network from scratch while simultaneously bidding billions in future spectrum auctions. That's a tough proposition.